If there was no traffic last year between A and B, there won't be next year ... and of course if there is no traffic, airlines don't fly so there won't be traffic etc etc ... Traffic is a result of demand but also to a large extend to the service available. The market sizes as we know them need to change: Users don't start their journey at the airport: they start from home, and can take ground transport to the next airport => market sizes should be defined at a city level, meaning city, like Orleans, France not IATA city code Demand is not traffic, demand is the number of people potentially interested to travel, some of them fly some of them don't => there could be different degrees of potential "intent", the more qualified is the number people who search for travel

1. Improving market sizes with
new data
Faical Allou – Business Development
faical.allou@Skyscanner.net
April 2017

2. Boarding data while accessible and affordable to airport is barely usable because of major limitations
Boarding
• Boarding data is the poorest
source of info. It only provides
information on schedules and
the load on flights
Among others, it doesn’t have
price info, full O&D and
doesn’t account for no-shows
Price,
Full O&D,
No-shows

3. Ticket
Boarding
• Ticket data is one of the most
used data source in the
industry
• It provides information on
what was successfully sold
Amongst others, it doesn’t
include the true origin of the
passenger, it doesn’t show the
composition of the group
No ground transport
No group size
Ticket database is the core of the current traffic estimations but do not cover ground transportation

4. BookingTicket
Boarding
• Booking data is considered a
premium source of data in the
industry
• It provides information what people
intend to buy
Amongst others, the point of sale is
for the agent, it doesn’t include LCC,
it depends on the what is available
No LCC
Point of sale is the agent
Booking data is very costly and doesn’t provide the true origin of the passenger

5. SearchBookingTicket
Boarding
• Search data is
widely available but
rarely used
• It provides
information what
people want
It doesn’t include
the latent demand
that can be
generated by
marketing
No data for people who don’t
know they want to travel
Web searches provide unique information on what users really want

6. The analysis of the inspiration phase is too unstructured and hard to quantify for market size analysis
BookingTicket
Boarding
• Difficult to quantify
Search
Inspiration

7. Web searches have been available for 20 years but are barely used in the aviation industry as opposed to tech companies
Inspiration
First day of commercial
aviation (1914) 1920s 1960s 2000
We are here
We mostly use this
BookingTicket
Boarding
Search

8. Use case: Traffic estimation for
MAN-SVQ

9. What we saw last year is a consequence of the service offered and can’t be the unique base to estimate potential traffic
What we
saw from
MAN to SVQ
connecting
• There was no direct flight between
MAN and SVQ in 2016
• The market size between MAN and SVQ
can be estimated based on bookings,
airport data, capacity etc
• This market size has been constrained
by the lack of service
• If a new flight is launched, the market
size will increase dramatically; we call
this “traffic stimulation” but how much
can be expected?
 Passengers don’t just appear at the
airport because a new flight is available
Low
traffic
Limited
service
No conversion
No new service
Size = 100

10. Additional travellers who live
in Manchester area but
travelled from other airports
Passengers can fly on 2 tickets or use ground transport to other airports, which is wrongly captured in traditional data
What we
saw from
MAN to SVQ
connecting
Searches made from MAN catchment to SVQ
x20
Size = 2000
Source: Travel Insight data for 2016

11. People who searched for MAN-SVQ and
didn’t purchase anything because the service
is not relevant/convenient
Passenger who give up after not finding a good offer are not accounted for in traditional data
MAN-SVQ
Overall to/from MAN and
to/from SVQ
Average conversion rate in 2016
75% lower
x4
Size = 8000 Source: Travel Insight data for 2016
Additional travellers who live
in Manchester area but
travelled from other airports
What we
saw from
MAN to SVQ
connecting

12. Looking at a broader database enables to better estimate the stimulation factor on a route
Size = 8000
Source: Travel Insight data for 2016
Total stimulation
without marketing:
80x
What we
saw from
MAN to SVQ
connecting
Size = 100
People who searched for MAN-SVQ and
didn’t purchase anything because the service
is not relevant/convenient
Additional travellers who live
in Manchester area but
travelled from other airports
What we
saw from
MAN to SVQ
connecting

13. Travel Insight Lite is free and available to anyone in the travel ecosystem
One more thing ….
https://partners.skyscanner.net/travel-insight-lite

14. Thank you
Faical Allou – Business Development
faical.allou@Skyscanner.net
April 2017