Personal Income Tax Analysis And Revenue Forecasting

Personal Income Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting Paper prepared to present on Ethiopian Civil Service College & Ethiopian Management Institute ‘ Assessment of the Practices of Civil Service Reform Program in Ethiopia ’ November 18 & 19, 2009 By Fassil Tassew Addis Ababa

Personal Income Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

1. Introduction and statement of the problem ,[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Introduction and statement of the problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Introduction and statement of the problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Introduction and statement of the problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Introduction and statement of the problem ,[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Introduction and statement of the problem ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

2. Institutional Arrangements of Ethiopia’s Fiscal Year ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Institutional Arrangements of Ethiopia’s Fiscal Year ,[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Institutional Arrangements ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Institutional Arrangements ,[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Institutional Arrangements ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

3. Data and methodology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Data and methodology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

3.1.2. Data management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

3.2. Models Specification and methodology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Models Specification and methodology income tax schedule ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

3.2.2. Forecasting Methodology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Forecasting Methodology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The constant annual rate of growth model of personal income tax revenue, assuming annual compounding, is described a follows: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Forecasting Methodology ,[object Object]

Use of constant annual growth rate model involves determining the average historical rate of growth in a personal income tax revenue and using equations (3.1),(3.2), and (3.3.) to project future values. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Forecasting Methodology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Forecasting Methodology ,[object Object],[object Object]

4. Results and discussions of Complementary Income Tax Schedules 4.1 The first Complementary Income Tax Schedules 1443.78 0.10<ATR  0.13 189.60 131.25 0.15 875.00 (758.36-1633.38] 700.56 ATR=0.10 58.30 58.30 0.10 583.36 (175-758.36] 175.00 ATR=0.00 00.00 00.00 0.00 175.00 (0-175] Disposable income (7)Upper limit (1) minus(5) Average tax (6)=(5)/(upper Income limit (i) minus 150 Birr) Total tax revenue in Birr(5)=Vertical Summation of (4) Unit Income Tax revenue (T i )in Birr at each income Tax bracket(4)=(2)*(3) Marginal Tax (3)=(4)/(2) Taxable Income in Birr(2) Income tax Brackets (monthly employment income-Y i ) in Birr

4.2 the second Complementary Income Tax Schedules 1485.00 0.10<ATR  0.13 195.00 135.00 0.15 900.00 (680-1680] 720.00 ATR=0.10 60.00 60.00 0.10 600 (180-680] 180.00 ATR=0.00 00.00 00.00 0.00 180.00 (0-180] Disposable income (7)Upper limit (1) minus(5) Average tax (6)=(5)/(upper Income limit (i) minus 150 Birr) Total tax revenue in Birr(5)=Vertical Summation of (4) Unit Income Tax revenue (T i )in Birr at each income Tax bracket(4)=(2)*(3) Marginal Tax (3)=(4)/(2) Taxable Income in Birr(2) Income tax Brackets (monthly employment income-Y i ) in Birr

4.3. Discussions on the Complementary Income Tax Schedules ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Discussions on the Complementary Income Tax Schedules ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

5. Results and discussions of Modeling and Forecasting 5.1. Results and of Modeling a) Simple Linear time trend Table 5.1 0.000 0.000 0.000 P. Value 0.894 109.17 Est. (PITR U )=17.858 +75.234*t ( (0.273) (10.448) Universal:1984-98 3 0.905 124.13 Est. (PITR P =0.376 +1.051*t ( (0.858) (11.141) Undiscovered:1984-98 2 0.893 108.69 Est. (PITR C =17.876 +74.157t (0.276) (10.425) Common: 1984-98 1 R-Sq F Estimated Regression Line Linear Time Trend No

. . . Results of Modeling b) log Linear time trend Table 5.2 0.000 0.000 0.000 P. Value 0.979 595.34 Est(logPITRU)=2.301+ 0.053*t ( (115.408) (24.393) Universal:1984-98 3 0.969 404.73 Est(logPITRP)=0.447+ 0.054*t ( (18.331) (20.119) Undiscovered:1984-98 2 0.961 318.77 Est. (logPITRC)=2.294+ 0.052*t ( (85.947) (17.855) Common: 1984-98 1 R-Sq F Estimated Regression Line log Linear Time Trend No

5.2 Results Discussions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Results Discussions ,[object Object]

5.3 Forecasting ,[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Forecasting discussion ,[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Forecasting discussion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Forecasting table 5.3 1, 523 21. 40 1,501.02 2,296.20 33.65 2,157. 76 2003 1,447 20.35 1,426.86 2,032.54 29.72 1,914.06 2002 1,372 19.30 1,352.70 1,799.02 26.24 1,698.32 2001 1,297 18.25 1,278.55 1,592.34 23.17 1,506.68 2000 1,221 17.20 1,204.39 1,409.40 20.46 1,336.65 1999 universal undiscovered Common universal undiscovered Common Simple linear Log linear

. . . Forecasting Findings ,[object Object],[object Object]

. . . Forecasting Findings ,[object Object]

6. conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object]

… conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

… conclusion ,[object Object],[object Object]

The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia’s renaissance is true and it begins, all the old does not work. ,[object Object]

Personal Income Tax Analysis And Revenue Forecasting

Recommandé

Recommandé

Contenu connexe

Similaire à Personal Income Tax Analysis And Revenue Forecasting

Similaire à Personal Income Tax Analysis And Revenue Forecasting (20)

Plus de Institute of Pagume 6

Plus de Institute of Pagume 6 (20)

Personal Income Tax Analysis And Revenue Forecasting