Making a Real Difference with Operational Research

Making a Real Difference:
Operational Research
Charlene Timewell, ORS Education Officer
Ian Seath, Director, Improvement Skills Consulting Ltd.
Felicity McLeister, ORS Pro Bono Project Manager

 Why is O.R. the “Science of Better” and where can it take you?
 “It’s a Dog’s Life”: A Case Study in Operational Research
 Pro Bono O.R. for the Third Sector
Session Overview

www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 3
What is Operational Research?
Operational Research
Operational Research (O.R.) is the discipline of combining a way of thinking
and communicating with appropriate, often advanced, analytical methods
to help make better decisions in businesses and other enterprises.

When is O.R. useful?
 When a decision is complex or it’s not clear what the main problem is
 When it’s uncertain what the outcome of different actions will be
 When you don’t know how well things are working or think they could work
better
 When you are worried about risks
 When you need to take account of the views of different stakeholder
groups

How is O.R. useful?
Modelling
RiskAnalysis
GameTheory Data MiningLinear Programming Scheduling
Simulation
Bin Packing
Hyper-Heuristics
Critical Path
Analysis
EvolutionaryComputation
Markov
Decision
Processes Optimisation
Meta-Heuristics
Systems
Dynamics Queuing Theory
Statistics & Probability
Validation
Assessment

Why is O.R. the Science of Better?
Supermarkets
 Understanding people’s buying patterns
 Determining the number of staff needed
on checkouts and when
 Calculating order quantities and delivery
times
 CASE STUDY: Waitrose
 Improve automated demand forecasting
system
 Statistics and simulation
 Significant overall cost reduction of 2%

O.R. is the Science of Better
Transport Planning
 Calculating cost effective,
environmentally conscious routes
 Planning loads and scheduling deliveries
to consolidate orders
 Optimising staffing requirements and
fleet size
 CASE STUDY: Blackheath Products
 Reliable vehicle routing solution prior to
major business expansion
 Optimisation
 Fuel and mileage savings of 20%, reduced
planning time by 75%

Where can O.R. take you?

Figures correct as of October 2015, source:
www.completeuniversityguide.co.uk
Numerate Careers:
Average starting salaries
for graduates

Activity six months after graduation from first degrees by subject,
2012/13

Where to Look for Experience & Jobs
Annual Careers Open Day: 23rd November 2016

Placements, Internships, & Graduate Schemes
 www.glassdoor.co.uk, e.g.
 www.gradcracker.com, e.g.

Company Website, e.g.
Volunteering Opportunities, e.g.
 Direct with employers or charities
 O.R. in Schools (ORiS)
http://bit.ly/1teCxXPhttp://ibm.co/1kq3pWAhttp://bit.ly/1FP84vK

The OR Society
The OR Society
 The professional membership body of
the Operational Research (O.R.)
community.
 The longest-established and second
largest O.R. association worldwide with
almost 3000 members across 53
countries.
 A registered charity and a company
limited by guarantee, governed by its
Board of Trustees and Committees.

The OR Society
Free Student Membership
 Access to all ORS journals and magazines
 Build your background knowledge and your CV by attending events and volunteering with
ORS outreach
 Apply for CandORS accreditation
 Network with other students and O.R. professionals (Public Lectures, Conferences,SiGs,
& Regional Societies)
 Discounted rates for conferences and training courses

ORiS: Making a Difference
O.R. in Schools
“every student
should know what
O.R. is”
For Professionals
 An opportunity to share
O.R skills with the next
generation
 Free support, training,
and resources from The
OR Society
For Teachers
 Free O.R resources
and support for the
classroom
For Students
Secondary onwards
 To learn what O.R. is and
how maths is used in
everyday life
During University
 To gain experience and
skills for CV while
promoting maths/O.R. to
younger students
 To explore career
opportunities in O.R.

Introducing
Algorithms using
Board Games

Teaching Linear
Programming
using Lego

Practical Exercise
∞ 1st person in the line, look at the person on your left.
∞ If you are taller, swap.
∞ 2nd person in the line, look at the person on your left.
∞ 3rd person in the line, look at the person on your left.
∞ And so on…until you reach the end of the line.
∞ The last person in the line should now be the tallest and can turn
around.
∞ Start again. The end of the line is the person next to someone who
has turned around.

Real-life applications of maths

ORiS: Student Volunteers
Volunteer Benefits
 All resources/materials are provided
 Travel & accommodation expenses
reimbursed
 Free training courses and workshops
 Networking opportunities with other students
and O.R. professionals
 Experience for your CV

Further Information
 Find out more…
www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk
www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk
www.TheORSociety.com
 Get in touch…
+44 (0)121 233 9300
Charlene.Timewell@theorsociety.com
@ORinSchools

“It’s a dog’s life”
A Case Study in Operational
Research
The OR Society: www.theorsociety.com
Pro Bono O.R.: www.theorsociety.com/Pages/Probono/Probono.aspx
For more information
Email felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com
Phone: 0121 233 9300

Can we answer the following questions?
• How many dogs there are “in the
system” in the UK and how do they
move between different parts of the
system?
• How many dogs are relinquished and
why? Which type of dog?
• Can we forecast the likely impact of
different interventions ?
The RSPCA is the UK’s leading animal welfare charity.

Key project stages
• Review the available data
• Design and build a model
• Develop recommendations for
possible uses and future
development of the model

What data would you want to
collect and where would you find
it?
Workshop exercise 1

Literature Review
• Literature Review of
relevant papers and
reports
• ~50 different sources
• ~100 data points and
times series
• Assessment of data
quality

Can we model the UK dog
population?
Workshop exercise 2
Stock
Inflows
Outflows

A Stocks and Flows Model of UK dogs
• A Stocks and Flows Model helps us to
understand the “system” in which
dogs exist; where they are and how
they move between different parts of
the system
• Task 2a: decide what are the four
“stocks” of dogs that you would want
to include in a model, based on the
overall population data from the
literature review
Stock 1
Stock 4
Stock 2
Stock 3

• Here is a model answer that defines
four main stocks of dogs
• Task 2b: what do you think are the
inflows and outflows that lead to
increases and reductions in each of
the stocks?
• N.B. there may be more than one inflow
and/or outflow for each stock
Companion
dogs
Working dogs
In Rescue
Strays

Companion
dogs (99.8%)
Working dogs
In Rescue
Strays
• Births
• Imports
• Deaths
• Exports
• Births
• Imports
• Deaths
• Deaths• Deaths • Births • Births
• Imports

What factors and interventions
affect the flows?
Workshop exercise 3

Factors affecting the flows
Canine
birth &
death
rates
Political
Economic
Social
Technology
Legal
Environment
• If you were the RSPCA, what
interventions would you want to make
to improve the system?

The Model
Stray dogs
Dogs in welfare
Owned dogs
Owned births
Owned
deaths
Stray births
Stray deaths
Welfare
births
Welfare deaths
Owned dogs to welfare
Welfare dogs to owned
Owned dogs to stray
Stray dogs to owned
Stray dogs to welfare
Imported owned dogs
Dogs imported to
welfare
Owned dog
exports
Number of dogs
microchipped
Owner education
level re dogs
Welfare life expectancy
Owned dog life
expectancy
Stray dog life
expectancy
Space available in
welfare
Euthanasia policy
Emmigration
Number of dog
breeders
Number of puppy
farms
Funding for welfare
Welfare capacity
Demand for
dogs in UK
Number of
owned dogs
having puppies
Demand for dogs -
non-UK
Disposable income
Insurance rates
Number of
dogs lost
Number of
dogs
abandoned
Number of dogs
neutered
9.4m (23)
2009 LB: 12,340
2010 LB:10,630
est 1,250 (300
to 2130)
111,000 per
year (13)
Strays back to owner -
53,280 per year (13)
Rehomed - 9,990
per year (13)
Put to sleep/die 8,880
per year (13)
Working dogs
27,750 per year (13)
Entering welfare:
129,743 per year (1)
0.5% of welfare in
flows (27, scaled)
11.4% of outflow died (27)
LB 7142 euthanised (1)
Assume 0
Welfare dogs reunited with
owner - 12.5% of those
entering = 16,218 (1). 7.7%
of those entering (27)
Rehomed - 80.9%
of outflows (27)
69.5% of welfare
inflows (27, scaled)
30% of welfare inflows (27,
scaled) - this includes LA and
public straying dogs
11.4% of dogs per
year? (36)
25% of dogs per
year? (est from
24, 41)
12 years (34)
4% of microchipped are from Ireland,
3% from other EU, 2% from outside
EU - needs scaling up by 2% (24)
50,000 dogs imported
from Ireland per year (31)
Working dogs
to owned
greyhounds - 3,910
per year (33)
Working
dog births
Working
dog deaths
Working dog life
expectancy
Requirements for
working dogs
Working dogs to
welfareAt least 2500
police dogs
(45)

How the RSPCA has been able to use the
results
• Helping to scope the direction of their
campaign to tackle the illegal trade
in puppies
• Using the data to inform their
response to DEFRA’s
consultation on overhauling
existing pet vending legislation

Pro Bono O.R.
(Operational Research)
for the Third Sector
Webpage: www.theorsociety.com/Pages/Probono/Probono.aspx
Blog: http://probonoOR.blogspot.co.uk/
Phone: 0121 233 9300

Pro Bono O.R.
• What is Pro Bono O.R. and how did it come about?
• What are its aims?
o To help Third Sector organisations to do a better job
o To promote O.R. in the Third Sector
o To promote effective use of O.R.

How it works: organisations
• Expression of interest
• Registration form
• Scoping conversation
• Project scope sent to volunteers
• Organisation selects volunteer
• Pre project survey
• Project proposal drawn up
• Project commences
• Feedback sought
• Post project survey

• The role of a volunteer:
• Who are the volunteers
• Work with organisation to specify project;
• Undertake project, either individually or in teams;
• Write up and/or present their work wherever appropriate;
• Mentor junior volunteers.
• O.R./analytical professionals
• Retired
• Consultants
• Government employees
• Employed professionals
• Academics
How it works: volunteers

Projects
Volunteers
• 67 projects advertised
• 45 projects completed
• 22 active projects
• Over 400 volunteers
• 173 volunteers applied for projects
• 89 volunteers on projects
The story so far…

Some example case studies
RSPCA
• Modelling the UK dog population
Elfrida Rathbone Camden
• Designing an outcomes framework to measure impact
Crimestoppers Trust
• Improving performance whilst minimising cost

How to get involved
• Sign up online
http://www.theorsociety.com/Pages/Probono/Pr
obono.aspx
• Come and chat to me now
• Drop me an email
felicity.mcleister@theorsociety.com

Webpage:
www.theorsociety.com/Pages/Probono/Probono.aspx
Blog:
http://probonoOR.blogspot.co.uk/
Connect with me via:
@FMcLeister
Felicity McLeister
Further information
Phone: 0121 233 9300

Making a Real Difference with Operational Research

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