Solvay has established a Highly Protected Risk culture to anticipate and mitigate risks. They develop scenarios and response plans for uncertainties. Their risk assessment process involves updating a risk matrix and individual risk sheets with critical risks and mitigation actions. For Brexit, Solvay set up a task force to evaluate risks and opportunities to protect value and stay competitive, even though analysts say Solvay is well positioned due to its diverse portfolio.

1. Sonia Cambier
Global Head of Insurance
and Prevention
SOLVAY
Fredrik Erixon
Director and co-founder of
European Centre for
International Political
Economy (ECIPE)
Carolyne Spackman
VP-Chief Economist of
Country Risk
AIG
Jan Wesseldijk
Board Member of ecoDa
Owner of Wesseldijk & Co.,
Board Consultancy Firm

2. Fredrik Erixon, European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE), Brussels
Globalisation and Protectionism –
New Trends in the World Economy

3. Salient trends in the world
economy
⎯Trade growth
⎯Shifting patterns of trade
⎯Composition of 21st century protectionism

4. 1. Trade growth

5. A. The value of global exports

6. B. Shifting patterns of trade

7. C. Composition of 21st
century protectionism

8. Regulatory freedom (product
markets)
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.00
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
United States
Germany
France
Italy

9. Economic freedom to trade
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
United States
Germany
France
Italy

10. Share of US jobs that requre local license
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000 2006 2008

11. Data loclisation measures - globally
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016

12. Strategies going forward
⎯Globalisation will not reverse, but isn’t growing much
⎯Protectionism hits factor markets, platforms, IP and
advanced services
⎯21st century protectinism puts a premium at corporate
startegies to control markets and competition

14. - 1 -
The Global Economy Resuscitates in 2017
But Uncertainty is Here to Stay…
What are the Key Risks and How Should
Companies Respond?
Carolyne Spackman
Vice President /Chief Economist, Country Risk
AIG Credit Lines- Political Risk, Trade Credit, and Surety
September 2017

15. DISCLAIMER
The statements provided herein are based solely on the opinions of AIG and are being provided for general
information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or a
solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Any opinions provided herein
should not be relied upon for investment decisions and may differ from those of other departments or
divisions ofAmerican International Group, Inc. (“AIG”) or its affiliates.
Certain information may be based on information received from sources AIG considers reliable;
however, the accuracy and completeness of such information cannot be guaranteed. Certain
statements contained herein may constitute “projections,” “forecasts” and other “forward-looking
statements” which do not reflect actual results and are based primarily upon applying retroactively a
hypothetical set of assumptions to certain historical financial information. Any opinions,
projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements presented herein reflect the judgment of AIG only as
of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. AIG has no obligation to
provide updates or changes to these opinions, projections, forecasts and forward- looking statements.
AIG is not soliciting or recommending any action based on any information in this document.
1
5

16. 0
200
400
600
800
Data Source: Bloomberg as of 18-Aug-17
1.000
1.200
1.400
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
Weekly Data with 4-Jan-85 = 1,000
(The last trading day of every year is Christmas Eve.)
A shipping & trade index measuring changes in the
transport cost of raw materials.
A rising BDI indicates a bullish environment for
commodities & world trade.
Source: Bloomberg, L.P,. Data as of August 2017
Despite Protectionism, Trade Activity is
Trending Up, Implying Stronger Growth in 2017
1
6

17. US Challenges to the Global System Imply that
1
7
Other Countries May Have to Adjust to a New Order
US Maintains Commitment
NATO: Trump made this an important part of his campaign. He also called into question the need for NATO if
European countries would not help pay more for defense
Result: After claiming European countries are starting to pay more for NATO, Trump has finally
committed to the NATO Article 5
WTO: On the campaign trail, Trump threatened to pull the US out of the WTO
Result: Trump appointed a protectionist, Lighthizer, as US trade negotiator, has suggested ignoring the
WTO, or using its mechanisms to get China to meet its WTO obligations
US Revises
NAFTA: Trump threatened to withdraw on the campaign trail
Result: NAFTA will be renegotiated, which may take up to a couple years
US Withdraws
Paris Climate Agreement (COP 21): Trump campaigned that the agreement disadvantages the US and
benefits other countries
Result: Trump has removed the US from the agreement; however many states, cities, companies and
organizations in the “We are Still In Coalition” have affirmed they will meet the de-carbonization goals
Trans-Pacific Partnership: Ending TPP was a goal of Trump’s election campaign
Result: InAugust, Trump signed the order to formally withdraw the US from the TPP

18. Current Account Balance, % of GDP
… And Trade Surplus Countries May Still be
Targeted by Trump in “Surplus Wars”
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F
Japan
Source: EIU. Data as of July 2017
1
8
Germany Korea China
The US is unlikely to impose broad trade barriers
on China, Mexico, or other countries, but other
measures are being considered:
• The US may cite national security concerns
under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act
of 1962. Example: Investigations into steel and
aluminum imports were launched inApril but
dropped in July
• May cite foreign practices that harm certain US
industries under Section 301 of the TradeAct of
1974 Example: Administration alleges that
China does not respect intellectual property
• NAFTA renegotiation proposes amending
regional content rules and prevent currency
manipulation while dropping the dispute
settlement court

19. New Wars Could Break Out in Asia or the
Middle East
Meanwhile, conflicts in Syria and Iraq are not Over
1
9
North Korea:
• Sanctions often preclude war, but the EU may not go along with any US-led strike;
meanwhile the recent US sanctions on Chinese and Russian entities raise the risk of larger
countries getting involved in any conflict
• The US wants to prevent the DPRK from furthering its nuclear program; it was also
discovered that North Korea may have 2/3 of the world’s supply of rare earths which are vital
to US weapons systems, smartphones/tablets/laptops, and carbon-reducing technologies
Qatar:
• Saudi Arabia has in effect told Qatar to surrender its independence (especially regarding
foreign policy) and take orders from the Kingdom, as put forth by the 13 demand (shades of
WWI have emerged); while Qatar will not relinquish its sovereignty
• The isolation of Qatar has lined up countries into two camps, with Turkey (and to a
degree Iran) rallying behind Qatar while the UAE and Egypt support Saudi Arabia
Afghanistan 2.0:
• Although the war never officially ended, US troops largely withdrew in 2014 but now
plans are in motion to step up US military presence again

20. Although the Macron win Prevented “Frexit,”
“Uncertainty” will Continue to Bedevil Policymaking
0
50
Migrant Crisis
Grows
150
100
200
250
300
US Election
BrexitProtests against
New Year’s
assaults
Macron
win
Source: policyuncertainty.com
2
0

21. Source: IMF WEO
Risks to the EU Remain Until Growth is Restored
Real GDP, % chg Yoy
One: Post-Euro Growth Slowdown Implies that the
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
1980-1998 1999-2016
-2.9% chg
-0.7% chg -1.1% chg
-0.7% chg -0.7% chg -1.7% chg -1.1% chg
-0.4% chg
Kept the Pound Sterling
21

22. Two: Although Unlikely, Could Divergent Policy
22
over Migrants Lead to a Polexit? Or Visegrád-out?
Some Countries’ EU Voting Rights May be Stripped, Which Could Backfire: If Eastern
European countries such as Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic continue to defy the EU,
and the EU continues with the sanctions procedures under Article 7, these countries could
consider leaving the EU as a response.
What are These Countries’Alternatives?: These three countries could have other alternatives
to simply embracing Russia’s orbit. Together, the Visegrád 4 + Baltics+ Balkans= the Intermarium,
or, the idea of a large Eastern European Union from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea popular in
the 1930s. The Vishegrád countries tried last year to get the EU to consider expansion of the EU
to the Balkans as an alternative to taking in migrants from Syria, but to no avail.
Investment from China could partly replace structural funds / EBRD: China is trying to
integrate the “Intermarium” countries in its Silk Road Strategy with all kinds of linkages and
investment
The US has a geopolitical interest in the Intermarium region: Stratfor’s Robert Kaplan (author
of the famous Balkan Ghosts that influenced the Clinton administration) argued an Intermarium
could also include Central Asia/caucuses, and might be allied with the United States given the new
bloc would border and contain Russia

23. With So Much Uncertainty, What Can You Do
To Protect Your Company?
23
You Can Insure Yourself Against Losses Deriving from:
Trade:
• Short term trade non-payment, including for reasons arising out of abrupt political or economic changes
• AIG’s trade product is based on non-cancellable limits, which means that you can depend on coverage
even when times are bad, unlike many of our competitors
Political Risks facing project lenders, contractors, financial institutions and multinationals:
• Political Violence/Civil Commotions and War Risks
• Contract Frustration due to Political Risks
• Confiscation, Expropriation, Nationalisation Risks
• Currency Inconvertibility and Non-transfer Risk
• AIG was the first private sector Political Risk provider and has a solid underwriting track record
spanning decades
Cyber-Risk
• Protect against the threat of property damage, business interruption, product liability and a number of other
cyber risks with AIG Cyber policies

25. ecoDa
The European Voice of Directors
Globalization in practice
Globalization in practice
Jan Wesseldijk

26. ecoDa
The European Voice of Directors
Globalization in practice
Content
• Fact vs. Fiction
• Five personal experiences
• Divestment Colombia
• Leading agricultural seeds
• Chinese connection
• Conquering the world
• World upside down
• Conclusions

27. ecoDa
The European Voice of Directors
Globalization in practice
Globalization has not gone into reverse

28. ecoDa
The European Voice of Directors
Globalization in practice
Health and social problem worse in
more unequal countries

29. ecoDa
The European Voice of Directors
Globalization in practice
Five personal experiences
Case Environment Methodology Strategy
choice
Board role
Result
Political
squeeze
Financial
projection
Divestment Lobbying 
Imminent
GMO ban
War gaming Public offering Sounding out
investors

End EU sugar
quota
PEST analysis Economy of
scale
Communist
party politics

Digitization BHAG Platform
business
Preaching 
Shareholder
activism
Scenarios Split-up Wake-up 

30. ecoDa
The European Voice of Directors
Globalization in practice
Conclusions
• Globalization: More global, more equal, more
unequal
• Environment: Respect all stakeholders (customers,
workers, shareholders, governments)
• Methodology: Focus on process, not outcome
• Strategic choice: Dream with deadline
• Board role: Mind human handicaps
(makeability, groupthink, visual illusion)
• Result: Entrepreneurship, mixed succes

31. ecoDa
The European Voice of Directors
Globalization in practice
Globalization with a human face

33. Finance
Sonia Cambier
Setting Up Risk Appetite in a more
complex Trade Environment
Webinar ecoDa, AIG , FERMA – 07/09

34. WHO IS SOLVAY?
WE ARE
A MULTI-SPECIALTY
CHEMICAL
COMPANY
1. 2016 underlying results
2. MTAR: Medical
Treatment Accident Rate
27,000
employees1
5.86
greenhouse gas
intensity
kg CO2 eq. per € EBITDA
€ 10.9
billion of
net sales1
€ 2,284
million of
EBITDA1
139
industrial
sites1
58
countries1
21
major
R&I centers1
0.77occupational accidents at
Group sites per million
hours worked2
Group presentation 2017
34
43%
sustainable
solutions
Group net sales

35. Group presentation 2017
35
A BALANCED PRESENCE
IN ALL GROWTH REGIONS
NORTH
AMERICA
2016 underlying results
27%
of net sales
6,400
employees
44
industrial sites
6
major R&I centers
LATIN
AMERICA
10%
of net sales
2,350
employees
8
industrial sites
1
major R&I center
EUROPE
33%
of net sales
13,200
employees
57
industrial sites
10
major R&I centers
30%
of net sales
5,050
employees
30
industrial sites
4
major R&I centers
ASIA
PACIFIC

36. Political Sciences
& Business
Administration
Education
Hundreds of
millions of
Captive LoB
Contributing to the
Group Strategic
Agenda
Hundreds of
millions of
EBITDA to
protect
Global Head of
Insurance &
Prevention
25+ Experience
as Underwriter,
Broker and
Risk Manager
CORPORATE
FINANCE
Group CRITICAL
Expertise
36
Hundreds of
Millions of Risk
Transfer

37. 37
Risk Management Strategy
As Solvay Group, we want to promote, implement and maintain a Highly
Protected Risk (HPR) culture which welcomes, encourages and rewards reporting
“bad news”, establishes a proactive attitude towards risk evaluation and risk
reduction, prepares personnel to expect the unexpected and rejects complacency by
nurturing constant anticipation of what can go wrong.
We develop What-if scenarios, responses, plans, Stress Test for the anticipation of risks
principles in our Strategy and all our processes and manufacturing operations.
Uncertainties are our New Normal!

38. Identified
Risks
Action Plans1)
Risk Assessment Status
• Risk matrix updated
• Individual critical risk sheets & action plans
established by the GBU, Insurance & Prevention and
Legal
Critical Risks and Mitigation Actions
8
2
1
3
13
1) actions taken to reduce or mitigate the risk38
ERM Methodology - Example – Risk Matrix
VERYLOWLOWDEVELOPEDADVANCED
4 2
5
LOW MODERATE HIGH
LEVEL OF CONTROL
CRITICAL RISKS
6
3
1
8
8
VERY
HIGH
IMPACT
7

39. Is Solvay ‘‘Brexit Proof ’’ ?
• Solvay well positioned due to diverse
portfolio, high profitability and cashflows.
• Financial analysts suggested Solvay is
in a good position to withstand such
storms, with “comfortable profit margins,
an apparently maintained dividend policy
and further diversification of activities.”
• Analysts may be right but faced with
uncertainty it is better to avoid
speculating what will happen and
instead focus on scenarios of what could
happen - and then be prepared with
strategies to protect our interests and
compete effectively
Solvay set up a task force to evaluate
BREXIT risks & opportunities to ensure
that we stay ahead of the game,
protecting the value that we are busy
creating!
PRESENTATION TITLE - Entity
39

40. IMPACT
LEVELOFCONTROL
LOW MEDIUM HIGH VERY HIGH
ADVANCED
DEVELOPED
MODERATE
LOW
CRITICAL RISKS
BREXIT
3. UK plants out of the Emission
Trading
Scheme
4 EU Employees in UK.
7. More Customs Clearance
Hurdle
(cost & delay)
Note: the above numbering of risks do not represent the ranking level
5.UK Product Stewardship out
of REACH
6. Increase sales cost
Commodity Business)
Confidential

41. Identified
Risks
Action Plans1)
Risk Assessment Status
• Risk matrix updated
Critical Risks and Mitigation Actions
41
BREXIT
VERYLOWLOWDEVELOPEDADVANCED
5
4
LOW MODERATE HIGH
LEVEL OF CONTROL
CRITICAL RISKS
3
6
VERY
HIGH
IMPACT
7

42. Risk Transfer Example of Comex Discussion
2. What is not?
• GGGGGGGGG
• GGGGGGGG
07/09/2017
42
1. What is existing?
• People Protection
• Assets, Profit & Cash
3. For discussion: Buying Insurance?
• Group Risk Exposure and Profile (internal, external, underwriter view)
• Financial exposure and Insurance Program options (+ What-if Scenarios)
• Benchmarkings

43. CASH INSURANCE PREVENTION
GROUP
STRATEGY
€
Opportunities Risks
43

44. Landscape of Political Risks & Opportunities
• COP 21, 22, 23, 24
- Solvay ahead of the game
• Commitment on Carbon Intensity
Reduction (40% by 2025)
• Predictability, Convergence and
transparency of policies key for
business competitiveness
• Protectionism still vague but to be
monitored and anticipated
• Iran, Polexit, North Korea on our
radar
• Financial Markets and EU back to
Growth: to be prudent: we know
Black Swan exists!
44

45. Karim Hajjar, Group CFO at Solvay SA
45
“You need to have a strategy and clear line. It's not the
bumps on the road that will divert or distract. The CFO
is there to accompany value creation and also to
protect value through risk management, to stress test
and to find the right balance. Turmoil in markets are an
integral part of business life. It's part of the new normal,
and it should not stop us from developing our
businesses, provided we continue to tread carefully.”

46. Any Questions?
Please use the GoToWebinar
Dashboard to send a question to
the Moderator