Powerpoint presentation for La Junta "the gathering" - Growing Forward: Population & Economic Trends in Colorado & Communities of Color

1. Growing Forward
Population & Economic Trends in Colorado
Society of Hispanic Human Resource Professionals
Elizabeth Garner
March 2021
State Demography Office, Department of Local Affairs
Demography.dola.colorado.gov

2. Where We Were
• Population growing at a slowing rate
• Concentrated growth
• Migration had become an “issue”
• Growth vs. attracting and retaining the best and brightest.
• Labor tight, Colorado not as competitive.
• Aging – impacts everything… including the economy,
education, housing, transportation, public finance.
• Increase racial and ethnic diversity.

3. Big Picture – 2019-2020 Pop Change
• US – 329.4 million, + 1.15 million or .35%
• Slowest growth since started recording data
• 16 states lost population
• Colorado – 5,807,700
• Ranked 12th fastest .85% - ID, AZ, NV, UT,TX
• 9th in total growth 49,233 –TX,FL,AZ,NC,GA
• Slowest growth since late 1980s

7. Colorado

8. Jobs Are People

11. Source: US Bureau of labor Statistics, Seasonally Adjusted
Who Is Most Impacted?
• Lower wage earners
• Industries
• Young – under 35
• Industries
• People of Color
• Industries
• Age distribution

12. Faster Recovery Slower
Recovery

13. 2021 Outlook
• Largest GDP growth in decades ~ 5 to 7%
• Stronger Job Growth -> Falling Unemployment
•Tailwinds: Growing # of vaccinated, easing of
restrictions, Gov’t $$$ support, increased savings & wealth
-> strong demand, leisure travelers (domestic)
•Headwinds: COVID resurgence, volatile financial
markets, rising interest rates & appreciation -> lower
housing affordability, business & international travel

15. Shifts in Demand
• Technology transformation (automation, AI)
o 200,000 of 800,000 new jobs created from 1990 to 2013
attributed to automation.
• Digitally literate
• Agile, nimble, creative
• Continuous training and professional development
• Work-based learning

16. Age Matters
• Preferences – where people shop and
what they buy.
• Housing – type, size, mobility
• Labor Force
• Income
• Service Demands

17. Generation Z
(1997 - 2014)
Generation Z
(1997 - 2014)

18. Aging Fast Because we are Young
• 6th Youngest State, 4th fastest growth in 65+
• 2015-30 increase 65+ 711,000 to 1,200,000
• Economic Driver
• Impact on occupational mix. Growing at 5% per year. Wages/Income
• Labor Force – growth in retirees
• Worker vs. non-worker mix changing
• Housing – primarily home owners – household size
• Income – Downward Pressure
• Health/Disabilities
• Transportation
• Public Finance – Downward Pressure

19. 0 to 17 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 to 100 Total
Change 23,538 38,701 248,842 99,474 332,431 742,986
Rate 1.9% 6.8% 14.7% 6.9% 39.1% 12.8%

21. We are becoming more diverse
by race and ethnicity

23. Diversity by Age

26. Race and Ethnicity Trends
• Fastest growth in labor force
• Educational attainment disparities
• Supply of qualified workers
• Income – correlation to education
• Economy – 70% driven by consumer expenditures
• Homeownership – wealth
• Income impact

27. Summary
• Slowing Growth – Slow births, higher
• Migration?
o In – from traditional donor states – CA, NY, FL
o Out – to lower cost states
o Teleworking – rural, broad band
• Forecast for future tight labor force
• Aging – economy and labor force
• Growing race and ethnic diversity
o Most impacted from COVID

28. COVID impact on forecast
200K – downward revision by 2050
7.9M vs 8.1M
2019
Change 2020-2050
State – 2.1 million
Front Range – 1.8M
Denver Metro – .8M
North FR– 550K
South FR – 350K
Rest of State – 400K
State Forecast 2050 – 7.9 M
COLORADO 2020-30 743,000
FRONT RANGE 644,309
Denver-Bldr Region 373,413
North Front Range 149,280
El Paso/Pueblo 121,616
Rest of State 98,691
Mesa/Grand Junction 22,559

29. Thank you
State Demography Office
Department of Local Affairs
Elizabeth Garner
Elizabeth.garner@state.co.us
303-864-7750
Demography.dola.colorado.gov

30. Economic Snap Shot on 2020
• U.S. Annual Loss – 8.8 million (5.8%)
o 22.2 million jobs Jan – Apr 2020
• Colorado Annual Loss -145,000 (5.4%)
o 376,000 jobs Jan – Apr 2020
o +205,000 jobs April – Jan 2021 (57% recovered)
• 2020 Unemployment Rate
U.S. = 8.1% Colorado = 7.3%
o Ranked 25th lowest between NC and TX

31. Source; Colorado Department of Labor
Next update: December data on 3/26/21
68%
88%
91%
96%
98%
0.650
0.700
0.750
0.800
0.850
0.900
0.950
1.000
1.050
Colorado Employment Change by Hourly Wage Quartiles (January 2020=1)
$11‐$20/Hr $22‐$28/Hr $31‐41/Hr $43‐71/Hr

32. Source: BLS / Current Population Survey (CPS)
Next Update: April 4, 2021

33. 12-month Averages from Local Area
Unemployment Statistics / Current Population
Survey