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Trend Spotting - Keep Your Fingers on the Pulse
- 1. Trends in Food Indy Neogy - KILN
- 5. Trends Two main kinds: • Big picture • Tastes and fashion
- 6. Big picture • Economics • Demographics • Technology • Culture
- 7. Economics • Resources – Energy – Local Food – Different Food – Shopping habits
- 11. Demographics • Living alone • Ageing population • Obesity • Immigration
- 18. Technology • Food processing • Delivery
- 25. Taste and Fashions How do tastes spread?
- 27. Other vectors • Supermarkets spread a food culture • TV & Celebrities • Masterchef – Wahaca • British Bake Off
- 28. Wahaca • Spreading a new sense of Mexican food – a different set of flavours. • London first – now Bristol and Manchester.
- 29. What next? • Flavours • Cuisines
- 33. Bloggers and Trends • Finger on the pulse – Keep looking around – Remember the diffusion problem – Think about the differences between you and others
- 34. Bloggers and Trends • Finally… • I didn’t say much about this – but you are all part of making the trends. • Here it is about your taste and expertise…
Notes de l'éditeur
- Thank you very much Delia. [next slide]
- Hello – I’m Indy Neogy from KILN. We specialise in helping companies get better at innovation and change.
- I’m responsible for IdeaKeg – a product from bringing trend insight into companies through the medium of physical objects.
- So Trends are my specialty. I spend a lot of time looking at the world and thinking about what happens next… Now “Food Bloggers” are a very diverse bunch, so I had to think quite a bit about what might be best to cover. A lot of it is going to be from a UK perspective – it’s hard to talk about the world when it comes to food… I’ve tried to touch on quite a few things, to give you an overview, a sense of how to look at trends for yourself.
- Big picture – long term changes in the world that affect our relationship with food – much of it easy to see, but timing is hard to work out Tastes and fashions – changes and spreading of different food preferences – happening much more quickly, often affected by unexpected events – TV shows, individuals,,, bloggers?
- Let’s look at the big picture first, and touch on 4 different areas.
- Economics is the study of resources and how they are allocated. I’m using the word to cover all sorts here. I’d like to focus on energy. Energy is a challenge, partly because oil supplies are not matching demand, partly because of concerns about the environment. Let’s talk about 3 effects connected to this.
- So one way energy connects to food is through transportation. We live in a golden age of food availability. You can get pretty much any ingredient you like, anywhere. This means we can explore all sorts of different cuisines in a way that just wasn’t possible in earlier generations. I know this particularly because when my Dad came to England and fell in love and got married in a small Yorkshire town, he would have to go to the local Chinese shop for some ingredients – others he’d have to travel much further for. But, this may not last. Oil is getting more expensive over time. All this luxury is costing more. Add in the questions around the environment and we can see the origins of a “local food” movement. Trends – local ingredients, exotics as luxuries, fruit in the UK much more seasonal.
- Another issue with energy relates to the energy required for production. We might also tie in use of land and water. Questions about fertilizer – ammonia shortages and of course antibiotics. Two main things on the horizon here – first – cloned meat, grown in vats. Second – alternative protein sources – particularly insects. Eatgrub are here today and going to give us a taste of this at the end of the session.
- Here in Britain, I think we also have to talk about shopping habits. We’re seeing a decline in the big out of town supermarkets – and that was sparked by petrol prices and people economising at the beginning of the financial crash. However, now people have gotten used to both shopping around and to buying less at a time. They like the reduction in waste, they also like the variety that comes that way. I don’t think they will be going back to the big stores as the economy improves. At the same time, there are complications involved here, because that big central store was a great place to stock low turnover ingredients. When you think about the Tesco Express near where I live, they only have room for the essentials… So we might see certain kinds of “foodie heaven” going away, esp. for those who don’t live in the best shopping areas…
- So – fundamental changes in home life – who is cooking, and for how many? But also, the economics – we already know how much prepared foods are growing – this is an extra driver of that trend. It can be cheaper to buy something to put in the oven/microwave than to really cook. Certainly faster. People starting to pair this with more eating out…
- Jiri Ono – oldest 3 star Michelin chef in the world Generally, it seems that as people get older, they get more interested in cooking for fun – as a hobby. Perhaps they have more time – perhaps, like gardening, it speaks to the soul. However, there’s also a reality that the taste buds change – typically away from sweet, towards a complex of the other flavours. There’s also questions of both adventurousness – difficult to judge – individal vs aggregate - and nostalgia. We’re seeing a lot of powerful nostalgia at the moment – reworkign of old recipies and ingredients. Particularly the glamming up of old basics.
- I think I can clearly say this is a problem for many of US. Food is killing US. This is a huge driver of changes in food. We’re seeing a quest for replacements for sugar – it’s become enemy no.1 We also see, combining the obesity and ageing into a general health issue – the ongoing search for superfoods.
- Some recent superfoods: Acai, blueberries, quinoa, kale Frankly – we don’t have a “healthy” relationship with food. Still, be on the lookout for beetroot (esp. juice) and every more specialised green tea as the next big things… And don’t forget the “engineered foods” – protein bars and shakes, athletics gels, etc. Yet – as if to illustrate the problem… there’s a backlash…
- Dirty burgers (actually patty & bun) but there you go… On the one hand, we’re forever paying lip service to health. On the other – well, we’ve gone crazy – we’ll pay ever more money for something full of the most basic flavour – fat and starch and sugar. And there’s that nostalgia factor here too – reworking the past, the basics of the past into something extravagant….
- Immigration – so many food have come to us from elsewhere. We’d have to expect recent waves to make an impact – Polish food anyone?
- This is the Thermomix. There’s also sous vide. Making it possible to do things at home that were never possible before. Also strangely affecting restaurants. Raising the bar in some ways – but also a bit strangely. Local Cote. Gordon Ramsey – “boil in the bag”
- Technology also changing the delivery of food and ingredients. Maybe Ocado solves the ingredients problem if you don’t live near the right shops. Deliveroo – and others – making delivery of food – particularly the ordering – more convenient. Easier to try new things – easier to stop cooking altogether. But also, changing the balance between restaurants and delivery.
- We want our food to seem authentic. A lot of times that means it needs to look this way. Or sometimes it means it should look like the dirty burger. But we’re still essentially in a backlash against the SPAM era.
- So the irony is, we don’t like. But the technology – well – we kind of do like…
- This is the more fun stuff – the changing face of food.
- Wahaca – so this spread is very specific. In the USA, Mexican is everywhere. And likewise – baking is everywhere in the UK, thanks to BBO.
- What comes after Quinoa? Easier to grow locally – and there’s always the quest for the next superfood grain.
- Harissa is on a growth curve right now. It’s not new to anyone in this room – but it’s just exploding as a flavour of the moment, both here and in the USA. Blogging – cross-fertilization.
- Ceviche – peruvian & fusion Time for something from Africa, below the Sahara – North Africa already very present… Time for Vietnamese food to hit the big time in the UK?