Presentacion de Vicente Barros en el marco del Seminario de Formación Profesional en Cambio Climático y Bosques, organizado por Fopea, RADPC y Banco Mundial

1. BOSQUES
Y
CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
Vicente Barros
23 de noviembre 2011
1 Buenos Aires

2. Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2008)
1,4 PgC y-1 4,1 PgC y-1
45%
2,7 PgC y-1
7,7 PgC y-1 + 30%
25%
2, 3 PgC y-1
2

3. EL CICLO GEOQUÍMICO DEL CARBONO
3

4. IMPACTOS MUCHO MAS IMPORTANTES
CON MAS DE 2 C DE CALENTAMIENTO
EXTINCIÓN DE ESPECIES YO ECOSISTEMAS
TOS EN LA SEGUNDA MITAD DEL
CRISIS DEL AGUA
PROPAGACIÓN DE VECTORES Y ENFERMEDADES
PÉRDIDA DE TIERRA POR AUMENTO DEL NIVEL
DEL MAR
MAYOR IMPACTO EN PAISES EN DESARROLLO
4
AUMENTO DE CONFLICTIVIDAD

5. IMPACTOS MUCHO MAS IMPORTANTES
CON MAS DE 2 C DE CALENTAMIENTO
GRAN PELIGRO DE QUE LA BIOSFERA DEJE DE
SER UN SUMIDERO DE CARBONO
5

6. LA MITIGACION DEL
CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
REQUIERE
REDUCIR EL
CONSUMO DE HIDROCARBUROS
6

7. 7

8. PETROLEO:
DEMANDA y OFERTA
Brecha creciente (AIE)
Quien lo tiene y quien lo consume
Inestabilidad económica
Conflicto político
La paz

9. EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
ES UN CONDICIONANTE DE
LA SOLUCIÓN A LA CRISIS
ENERGÉTICA GLOBAL
Energía renovable
Versus Carbón
Alineamientos de las grandes
potencias económicas

10. Respuesta en marcha:
1. Independencia
energética
2. Innovación y liderazgo
tecnológico
3. Generación de empleo
calificado

11. COMO NO SUPERAR LOS 2°C
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12. TEMAS EN DURBAN:
PROTOCOLO DE KIOTO
COMPROMISOS DE LARGO PLAZO
FONDOS PARA ADAPTACION Y MITIGACION
REDD
13

13. EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO SE
MANIFIESTA ANTES EN LOS
EXTREMOS
14

14. The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks
of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation

15. A changing climate leads to changes in extreme
weather and climate events
16

16. Socioeconomic development interacts with natural
climate variations and human-caused climate change
to influence disaster risk
Disaster Risk: Vulnerability:
the likelihood of severe the predisposition of a
alterations in the normal person or group to be
functioning of a adversely affected
community or society due
to weather or climate
events interacting with
vulnerable social
conditions
17

17. Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity and
frequency of climate events increases disaster risk
Disaster risk management and climate change adaptation can influence the
degree to which extreme events translate into impacts and disasters
18

18. Increasing exposure of people and assets has been
the major cause of changes in disaster losses
Pakistan floods, 2010
6 million left homeless
19

19. Fatalities are higher in developing countries
From 1970-2008, over 95% of natural-disaster-related deaths occurred in
developing countries
20

20. Climate models project more frequent hot days
throughout the 21st century
In many regions, the time between “20-year” (unusually)
warm days will decrease
21

21. There are strategies that can help manage disaster
risk now and also help improve people’s livelihoods
and well-being
The most effective strategies offer development benefits in the relatively near
term and reduce vulnerability over the longer term
22

22. IPCC Assessment Reports: The Process
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