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For Richer or Poorer: Concentrating Wealth
in the American Economy
Jerry Paytas, Ph.D.
Every day we hear about how taxes,
regulations and Obamacare are killing
jobs and stifling growth in the American
economy. The prescription is to cut
government, stop whining about the
winners and pull up your own bootstraps!
GOVERNMENT IS KILLING
JOBS
If regulation kills jobs, then how do you
explain the growth of a heavily regulated
industry life Life Sciences?

Life Science Jobs                                            Life Science Wages ($B)
14,500,000                                                   $800


14,000,000                                                   $700


13,500,000                                                   $600


13,000,000                                                   $500


12,500,000                                                   $400


12,000,000                                                   $300


11,500,000                                                   $200


11,000,000                                                   $100


10,500,000                                                    $-
         2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010          2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
So why were 3.5 million domestic jobs
were lost from 2005-2010 – two of the top
three declines since 1945!
                                                             3rd largest percentage
2nd largest absolute loss                                    loss
    Domestic Employment, 1945                                                                 Percent Change
              - 2010                                         20.0%

160,000,000
                                                             15.0%
140,000,000
                                                         2
120,000,000
                                                             10.0%
100,000,000                                  1
 80,000,000
                                                              5.0%
 60,000,000                                                           2                                                                                                            1                                      3
 40,000,000   3                                               0.0%
 20,000,000

         -                                                    -5.0%




                                                                      1945-1950
                                                                                  1950-1955
                                                                                               1955-1960
                                                                                                           1960-1965
                                                                                                                       1965-1970
                                                                                                                                   1970-1975
                                                                                                                                               1975-1980
                                                                                                                                                           1980-1985
                                                                                                                                                                       1985-1990
                                                                                                                                                                                   1990-1995
                                                                                                                                                                                               1995-2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                           2000-2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2005-2010
              1945
              1950
              1955
              1960
              1965
              1970
              1975
              1980
              1985
              1990
              1995
              2000
              2005
              2010




                                                             -10.0%
                  Source: National Income and Product                                         Source: National Income and Product
                  Acconts, Bureau of Economic Analysis                                        Acconts, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Two of the largest employment reversals
in the past 65 years have occurred in the
past 20 years? Why are we getting such
severe events with increasing frequency?
THERE MUST BE MORE
GOING ON
1950 to 1990 we had a run of job growth
interrupted by only minor reversals

                                   Domestic Employment, 1945 - 2010
160,000,000


140,000,000


120,000,000


100,000,000


 80,000,000


 60,000,000


 40,000,000


 20,000,000


         -
              1945   1950   1955      1960     1965    1970     1975     1980    1985     1990    1995        2000   2005   2010
                                   Source: National Income and Product Acconts, Bureau of Economic Analysis
The profits of American corporations, even
after we adjust for inflation, have continued
to rise, even now while jobs are vanishing
                              Adjusted Domestic Profits ($1 M)         Jobs (1,000)

$1,600,000


$1,400,000


$1,200,000


$1,000,000


 $800,000


 $600,000


 $400,000


 $200,000


       $-
             1945   1955       1965         1975          1985        1995            2005     2010   2011
                       Source: National Income and Product Accounts, Bureau of Economic Analysis
The gap becomes even more stark if we
index profits and jobs to 1945 levels

                                          Domestic Profit (Adjusted)          Domestic Employment

                     7.00



                     6.00



                     5.00
Index (1945 = 1.0)




                     4.00



                     3.00



                     2.00



                     1.00



                       -
                            1945   1955     1965          1975         1985        1995       2005   2010   2011Q2
U.S. Corporations are using some of the
money to create jobs outside the U.S.




Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203710704577052220096932832.html
Companies are also sitting on record amounts
of cash. Microsoft held $53 billion in cash in
June 2011, up from $21 billion in December
2008.

Money has to flow to stimulate demand, but
when it is stuffed in corporate mattresses it
reduces the liquidity that oils the gears of our
economy until the engine locks up
WHAT COULD YOU DO
WITH $53 BILLION
Profits are not creating jobs for Americans
If profits have continued to rise, despite
taxes, regulations and Obamacare… and
U.S. Corporations added jobs in high
tax, high regulation nations like France
and Germany, why can’t they invest here?
WHERE HAS THE MONEY
GONE?
It has gone to the 1%. The only group to
increase its share of Market Income.

45.0


40.0


35.0


30.0


25.0


20.0                                                                                                   Share of Market Income 1979
                                                                                                       Share of Market Income 2007
15.0


10.0


 5.0


 0.0
       Lowest Quintile Second Quintile Middle Quintile Fourth Quintile   81st - 99th   Top 1 Percent
                                                                         Percentiles
                                Source: Office of Management and Budget
But isn’t it true that the rich pay almost
40% of all federal taxes? If we cut
taxes, then we should have more
investment that creates jobs.
REDISTRIBUTION
PREVENTS WEALTH FROM
CREATING JOBS
But after taxes and transfers, the richest
20 percent (actually the top 1%) still got all
the marbles!
                                       Adjusted Income 1979-2007
12.0


10.0


 8.0


 6.0


 4.0                                                                                            Adjusted Income 1979-2007


 2.0


 0.0
       Lowest Quintile   Second Quintile   Middle Quintile   Fourth Quintile   Fifth Quintile

-2.0


-4.0
When we look at income distribution
between the top and bottom, we can’t
forget that population growth changes
how many people are affected -
QUINTILES DISTORT
Each quintile added 15.3 million people
from 1979 to 2007, but only one increased
its share of income
                     Income Change Relative to Population Change
0.70


0.60


0.50


0.40


0.30


0.20


0.10


   -
         Lowest Quintile   Second Quintile   Middle Quintile   Fourth Quintile   Fifth Quintile
(0.10)


(0.20)


(0.30)
Severe inequality kills jobs. When wealth
is highly concentrated, the market for
goods and services dries up. $1M spent
on luxury goods has the same impact on
GDP as $1M spent on necessities, but the
job impacts are very different.
GDP DOES NOT EQUAL
JOBS
The Maybach Landaulet model costs $1
million
Ford employs more than 30 people for
every car sold versus less than 12 for
luxury maker Mercedes-Benz, which makes
the Maybach
                                    Jobs per Car
                    Mercedes-Benz sold 1.1M vehicles
                    with 96,000 employees in 2010
Mercedes-Benz                                           $1M to buy 40
                                                        Fords sustains 100
                                                        times the jobs of
                    Ford sold 5M vehicles with          one Maybach
                    164,000 employees in 2010

         Ford




                0         5       10       15      20       25      30       35
Productivity gains reduce employment only
in the short term. But shifting production
from mass market goods to luxury items
might not affect GDP but it does impact jobs.
The question is whether the concentration of
wealth has short-circuited the link between
rising productivity and job creation….
YOU CAN BE TOO RICH!

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For Richer or Poorer

  • 1. For Richer or Poorer: Concentrating Wealth in the American Economy Jerry Paytas, Ph.D.
  • 2. Every day we hear about how taxes, regulations and Obamacare are killing jobs and stifling growth in the American economy. The prescription is to cut government, stop whining about the winners and pull up your own bootstraps! GOVERNMENT IS KILLING JOBS
  • 3. If regulation kills jobs, then how do you explain the growth of a heavily regulated industry life Life Sciences? Life Science Jobs Life Science Wages ($B) 14,500,000 $800 14,000,000 $700 13,500,000 $600 13,000,000 $500 12,500,000 $400 12,000,000 $300 11,500,000 $200 11,000,000 $100 10,500,000 $- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
  • 4. So why were 3.5 million domestic jobs were lost from 2005-2010 – two of the top three declines since 1945! 3rd largest percentage 2nd largest absolute loss loss Domestic Employment, 1945 Percent Change - 2010 20.0% 160,000,000 15.0% 140,000,000 2 120,000,000 10.0% 100,000,000 1 80,000,000 5.0% 60,000,000 2 1 3 40,000,000 3 0.0% 20,000,000 - -5.0% 1945-1950 1950-1955 1955-1960 1960-1965 1965-1970 1970-1975 1975-1980 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -10.0% Source: National Income and Product Source: National Income and Product Acconts, Bureau of Economic Analysis Acconts, Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • 5. Two of the largest employment reversals in the past 65 years have occurred in the past 20 years? Why are we getting such severe events with increasing frequency? THERE MUST BE MORE GOING ON
  • 6. 1950 to 1990 we had a run of job growth interrupted by only minor reversals Domestic Employment, 1945 - 2010 160,000,000 140,000,000 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000,000 - 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: National Income and Product Acconts, Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • 7. The profits of American corporations, even after we adjust for inflation, have continued to rise, even now while jobs are vanishing Adjusted Domestic Profits ($1 M) Jobs (1,000) $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $- 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2010 2011 Source: National Income and Product Accounts, Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • 8. The gap becomes even more stark if we index profits and jobs to 1945 levels Domestic Profit (Adjusted) Domestic Employment 7.00 6.00 5.00 Index (1945 = 1.0) 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 - 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2010 2011Q2
  • 9. U.S. Corporations are using some of the money to create jobs outside the U.S. Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203710704577052220096932832.html
  • 10. Companies are also sitting on record amounts of cash. Microsoft held $53 billion in cash in June 2011, up from $21 billion in December 2008. Money has to flow to stimulate demand, but when it is stuffed in corporate mattresses it reduces the liquidity that oils the gears of our economy until the engine locks up WHAT COULD YOU DO WITH $53 BILLION
  • 11. Profits are not creating jobs for Americans
  • 12. If profits have continued to rise, despite taxes, regulations and Obamacare… and U.S. Corporations added jobs in high tax, high regulation nations like France and Germany, why can’t they invest here? WHERE HAS THE MONEY GONE?
  • 13. It has gone to the 1%. The only group to increase its share of Market Income. 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 Share of Market Income 1979 Share of Market Income 2007 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Lowest Quintile Second Quintile Middle Quintile Fourth Quintile 81st - 99th Top 1 Percent Percentiles Source: Office of Management and Budget
  • 14. But isn’t it true that the rich pay almost 40% of all federal taxes? If we cut taxes, then we should have more investment that creates jobs. REDISTRIBUTION PREVENTS WEALTH FROM CREATING JOBS
  • 15. But after taxes and transfers, the richest 20 percent (actually the top 1%) still got all the marbles! Adjusted Income 1979-2007 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 Adjusted Income 1979-2007 2.0 0.0 Lowest Quintile Second Quintile Middle Quintile Fourth Quintile Fifth Quintile -2.0 -4.0
  • 16. When we look at income distribution between the top and bottom, we can’t forget that population growth changes how many people are affected - QUINTILES DISTORT
  • 17. Each quintile added 15.3 million people from 1979 to 2007, but only one increased its share of income Income Change Relative to Population Change 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 - Lowest Quintile Second Quintile Middle Quintile Fourth Quintile Fifth Quintile (0.10) (0.20) (0.30)
  • 18. Severe inequality kills jobs. When wealth is highly concentrated, the market for goods and services dries up. $1M spent on luxury goods has the same impact on GDP as $1M spent on necessities, but the job impacts are very different. GDP DOES NOT EQUAL JOBS
  • 19. The Maybach Landaulet model costs $1 million
  • 20. Ford employs more than 30 people for every car sold versus less than 12 for luxury maker Mercedes-Benz, which makes the Maybach Jobs per Car Mercedes-Benz sold 1.1M vehicles with 96,000 employees in 2010 Mercedes-Benz $1M to buy 40 Fords sustains 100 times the jobs of Ford sold 5M vehicles with one Maybach 164,000 employees in 2010 Ford 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
  • 21. Productivity gains reduce employment only in the short term. But shifting production from mass market goods to luxury items might not affect GDP but it does impact jobs. The question is whether the concentration of wealth has short-circuited the link between rising productivity and job creation…. YOU CAN BE TOO RICH!

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. These are all ppt clip art
  2. http://www.maybachusa.com/landaulet/maybach-landaulet.php