Future Agenda Initial Perspectives Full Text

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Contents
Vittorio Colao, CEO Vodafone Group 5

About Future Agenda 7

Authenticity Diane Coyle OBE 8

Choice Professor José Luis Nueno 14

Cities Professor Richard Burdett 20

Connectivity Jan Färjh 26

Currency Dr. Rajiv Kumar 32

Data D J Collins 38

Energy Leo Roodhart 42

Food Jim Kirkwood 48

Health Jack Lord 54

Identity Professor Mike Hardy OBE 60

Migration Professor Richard Black 66

Money Dave Birch 72

Transport Mark Philips 78

Waste Professor Ian Williams 84

Water Professor Stewart Burn 90

Work Chris Meyer 96

Biographies 103

3

We have all heard enough to know we live in a world that is facing some significant, potentially life-threatening
challenges and yet, as a society, we lack clear direction and seem ill-prepared to do anything. What is evident
is that individual, corporate and even national action is not enough. Issues such as climate change, population
increase and the development of socio-economic infrastructures all require a co-coordinated, urgent and
focused approach.

The Future Agenda provides a forum for discussion on how to address the challenges we face and gives you the
opportunity to share ideas, visions and solutions and ultimately seed change by contributing to the debate via the
website www.futureagenda.org This booklet is the beginning of that discussion with experts from academia and
industry establishing initial points of view on a range of issues.

The opinions expressed in this document are not ours but those of independent experts whose views we respect
even if we don’t always agree with them. I thank them for their wholehearted support. They have important things
to say that should be of interest to anyone concerned with creating a sustainable future for us all.

Mobile technology can offer many socio-economic benefits but I believe that the most important contribution that
the industry can offer is the power to allow people to communicate. Never has a conversation been more important.

Vittorio Colao, CEO Vodafone Group

5

About Future Agenda
Supported by Vodafone Group, the Future Agenda is a unique cross-discipline programme which aims to
bring together thoughtful people from around the world to address the greatest challenges of the next
decade. In doing so, it is mapping out the major issues, identifying and debating potential solutions and
suggesting possible ways forward. We hope, as a consequence, that it will provide a platform for collective
innovation at a higher level than has been previously been achieved.

As the world responds to accelerating challenges, organisations are seeking to gain clearer and more informed
views of the future so that they can place intelligent bets in terms of business strategy and innovation focus. In
order to understand emerging opportunities, we believe organisations should look, beyond their traditional
horizons, and use new combinations of insight and foresight methodologies.

The Future Agenda programme has already gained the support of a range of corporate, government and third
sector organisations keen to share perspectives, challenge each others views and identify ways forward across
the topics being addressed. As all participants are free to use the material as a source for ongoing research and
innovation, we invite you to add your views into the mix to build and share a unique view of the future we need
to collectively address.

7

Diane Coyle OBE
Founder, Enlightenment Economics and Member, BBC Trust

Future of Authenticity

8

The Global Challenge

Authenticity has great salience in our times because new information and communication technologies have The technologies
greatly expanded the scale and scope of the inauthentic. For example, they have made identity fraud possible which seem to
protect the bad
and also playful; many of us now have multiple personalities online. When it is easy to choose an identity, what guys - the identity
does that imply for the underlying reality? How do I know who I am, and how do you know who I am, and how thieves or
does my bank know who I am? spammers -
also seem able to
lead repressive
It is now so easy to make imitations that the value of communication in the past 20-30 years, copying and authorities to
the authentic has been enhanced. This phenomenon sharing information has become easier and cheaper clamp down on
was pointed out by the critic Walter Benjamin long ago than anybody of an earlier generation could have the good guys.
This is a genuinely
(in The Work of Art in the Age of Mechanical imagined - especially when so many goods and services difficult dilemma.
Reproduction). Furthermore, given the historically are digitally delivered. Managing this explosion in
unprecedented declines in the cost of computing and imitation is one of the real challenges of the digital age.

Options and Possibilities

People can be authentic or not.

Online identities can reflect the multiple ways we think about ourselves: A work and a home email; Several
different sign-ups for accounts; a Twitter account; perhaps Facebook profiles, or a character in World of
Warcraft. These are the benign possibilities. There are malign ones too. Thieves will seek our log-ins and
passwords to bank accounts. Malicious spirits will hide behind fake identities to spread rumours, attack other
people, incite violence even.

What are we to think about the cloak of anonymity online? It seems to encourage intemperate comments,
rudeness and viciousness in online forums. On the other hand, it is essential to protect whistleblowers, or
those who post information in a country affected by violence or a repressive regime. The technologies which
seem to protect the bad guys - the identity thieves or spammers - also seem able to lead repressive authorities
to clamp down on the good guys. This is a genuinely difficult dilemma.

Things can be authentic or not.

Fakes are proliferating in the online world. Fake What’s more, the majority of reasonable people don’t
drugs are sold over the internet, to the great harm of seem to believe there’s much wrong with intangible piracy
the customers. ‘Fake’ music, films, software are - it’s a different matter in the tangible world of medicines
sold too, to the benefit of customers but not of or aircraft parts. What is the authentic reality that the full
copyright owners. Piracy in this metaphorical sense force of the law and the state should be protecting? After
is absolutely rampant. all, an online copy of a song is no different from the original.

Future of Authenticity 9

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org

The internet Information can be authentic or not. Finally, experience can be authentic or not.
and modern
communications, This has always been a fundamental issue in how we Authenticity has an existential value. In rich countries,
amplify the navigate the world but is overwhelmingly important now where most people have lots of stuff, experience is
questions of
that so many people have access to so much more valuable. Activities that take time - ballooning,
veracity and
reliability which information. The internet, modern communications, cooking lessons, a holiday, book club meetings - are
have always amplify the questions of veracity and reliability which considered good presents, treats. Representations of
affected the have always affected the mass media. Urban myths experience have value too. Street style sells - as does
mass media.
Urban myths
move with the speed of light down fibre optic cables. home made jam or hand-made crafts. But of course
move with the Rumours and incitements to violence are spread, as being packaged and sold makes the authentic instantly
speed of light always, person to person - but each person can now inauthentic.
down fibre
reach many others, very quickly. A flash mob can be
optic cables. These reflections contain an enormous range of
assembled either to dance in the streets of London or
challenges and trade-offs.
beat up and stab neighbours in Kenya.

The skill of verification has become fundamental. Can
you identify spam email? Can you recognise bias in
your source of news? Is Wikipedia a good source
for homework?

The Way Forward

A number of steps will have to taken so that we can establish some form of order in the digital world. These are

1) The establishment of credible, digital identities. This is essential for trust - and hence any economic and
commercial activity - online. But conversely it is equally important to protect privacy - and anonymity too where
it’s needed.

2) The protection of intellectual property in the online world while continuing to protect civic space, an
intellectual commons - what James Boyle has entitled The Public Domain in his recent book of this title.

3) The continued provision of widespread access to communications and information. This brings enormous
benefits especially to people largely excluded from the privileged information access of the past (libraries, print
media). At the same time we must build in verification mechanisms, ensuring the reliability of widely-accessed
online information.

10 Future of Authenticity

The issues raised in all these different contexts are the more so when it can be spread rapidly via the The most effective
varied, and difficult. For some of them, it is quite likely internet, email and mobile and potentially change way to counteract
falsehoods in
that there will be many technology-based solutions people’s behaviour. While SMS messages have been future will
forthcoming in the near future. used to positive effect to spread correct information and probably come
encourage positive action - as in elections from the from the pooling
There are key areas where technology is already playing of many
Phillipines to Zimbabwe - there were concerns that
a major role in authenticity: Digital Right Management messages and
messages containing misinformation and lies were reports so the
(DRM) uses technology to limit access to certain content
being used to encourage and incite the violence after people can see
- technology having created the potential for access in where there is a
Kenya’s December 2008 election. The most effective
the first place. Equally biometric identity uses technology consistent story.
way to counteract falsehoods in future will probably
to limit the potential to form multiple identities. If my
come from the pooling of many messages and reports
avatar can always be traced back to the me of my DNA,
so the people can see where there is a consistent story.
is there any point in having it?
The aggregation of different sources - which can be
I predict technological ‘solutions’ will be commonplace done using new social media applications such as
in the next few years. Sellers of content, government Ushahidi - could be a powerful tool for verification.
agencies, airlines, and others will put up hurdles
For reasons of food safety as well as personal
designed to identify individuals. The world of ‘Minority
preferences - for organic food, or fair trade food perhaps
Report’ will lurch closer. But taken too far, this is a
- traceability has become an important issue. The
dystopia. The technologies ought to open up the world of
prototype Fair Tracing Project uses online maps to follow
information and creativity. If the full potential of the
products on their journeys from farmers to consumers.
information and communication technologies for the
Tracing will involve ‘tagging‘ individual products with
majority of people is to be recognized, technology can
information readily accessible by both producer and
not be used to build mechanisms which protect existing
consumer. The information that may be attached to
interests or structures and prevent change. ICTs are
tagged products is virtually limitless, beginning with
disruptive technologies. Printing was ultimately absolutely
details of the product’s date and cost of creation, as well
revolutionary - it’s why we all (in the rich west and many
as its individual creator and his/her working environment
other countries too) have an education and the vote. The
and pay, through the various steps of its transport
internet is revolutionary too. This is uncomfortable for
to the eventual point-of-sale to the consumer.”
those who were previously comfortable.
(http://web4.cs.ucl.ac.uk/students/v.shah/fairTracing/)
So although technology can certainly in the short or
Another example is Sourcemap, a new tool which
medium term clamp down on its own effects, it is at the
permits the researching and optimization of supply
expense of restricting some of the positive potential.
chains, using transparency to deliver sustainability.
In the longer term we need to look for better solutions.
(http://ow.ly/rgRs)
The most promising will depend on greater
Finally, online security and encryption are ways of
transparency of information and reputation. Here are
protecting personal information and safeguarding
some examples.
personal identity. That identity is created offline. The
Misinformation is dangerous in any context, including likely next step in establishing identity is likely to be
misinformation spread via conventional media. It’s all biometric technology which will link the physical person



The fact isthat to the digital environment - a thumbprint pad on the The fact is that virtual identity and "physical" identity
virtual identity and computer screen, perhaps. But a person’s online, are not the same thing, and they differ in ways that
"physical" identity
are not the same
connected identity could potentially be impossible to we are only beginning to take on board.”
thing, and they copy when it consists, as it eventually may, of all the (http://digitaldebateblogs.typepad.com/digital_identity
differ in ways that accumulated patterns of their digital activities. Each /2009/09/what-identity-is-important.html)
we are only
individual’s activities and conversations and searches is
beginning to take Technological solutions are likely to need changes to
on board as unique as a fingerprint. Dave Birch, who runs the
social and legal institutions as well. Thus it is feasible to
Digital Identity Forum, says in a recent blog post: “the
imagine identifying a person through the pattern of their
"common sense" notion of identity, rooted in our pre-
communications and online activities, but this ability will
industrial social structures and pre-human cortex, is not
be irrelevant unless government authorities in particular
only not very good at dealing with the properties and
will accept alternatives to the present paper-based
implications of identity in an online world, but positively
proof of legal identity.
misleading when applied to system and service design.

12 Future of Authenticity

Impact and Implications

The journey is unlikely to be easy. A comparison between the valuation of any company and its physical assets There will be
shows that the vast majority of value in the economy is intangible and based on an understanding of what it an ‘arms race’
between efforts
is - whether or not it is authentic. Intangible value can evaporate overnight - and we’ve seen many examples to market
of that, for instance in banking recently, in the case of Enron before that. This makes reputation everything, products or
and the only way to sustain a reputation is to live it constantly. create or shape
a reputation and
resistance to
Reputation is fragile - taking time to build but able The triangulation of information from different sources any message
to vanish overnight - it and will be more robust the will become an essential skill, an aspect of ‘media which is not
more it is the product of personal experience and literacy’ without which consumers and citizens will be wholly authentic.

recommendations. Personalization will, paradoxically, unable to navigate daily life.
become increasingly important even as new
Trusted guides will come to play an increasingly
technologies stretch the range and geographical spread
important role. These could be social networks, media
of connections between people.
organizations, certain connected and well-informed
However, there will be an ‘arms race’ between efforts individuals, or companies or other organizations. For
to market products or create or shape a reputation and these guides, too, reputation will be all-important and
resistance to any message which is not wholly will require constant vigilance.
authentic. This is a pattern familiar from the world of
A long, collective conversation about authenticity, in at
fashion: the cool people move on from a certain style as
least some of its aspects, is needed. Personal identity,
soon as many others take it up because it’s cool. We
verification of information, piracy - there are huge
can already see this expansion of the dynamics of
challenges in this list. They will be best addressed by
fashion in the evolution of social networks as means of
creative thought about the potential of the technologies
word-of-mouth recommendation. Trends such as
which are amplifying the challenges of authenticity to
Facebook or Twitter are subsequently taken up by
provide solutions too.
companies and other organizations as a means of
conveying messages, but this ‘official’ and inauthentic
use of a social medium in turn leads to resistance
amongst users of networks who move on to another
online location.


Professor José Luis Nueno
IESE, Barcelona

Future of Choice

14


The world has changed: Product supply and demand is globalized and there is no putting the genie back in Consumers are
the bottle. The flow of goods from Asia to the west has created an economic dependency over the past ten making a trade-off
in a smart
years that will be exploited over the next ten. As China and India and other fast-developing economies become way and cost
the primary global marketplaces, the needs and wishes of the 4bn new consumers will dominate those of the is winning.
800m old ones in the US and Europe. The days where the US set the pace in the consumer mindset are over
and this is not going to change.

In addition, choice is being threatened from the Why should we continue to build brands when China
expropriation of freedom of choice launched from and India can buy them ready-made off the shelf? Just
regulators, media, and the general public. Tobacco, as Lenovo bought IBM and Tata bought Jaguar Land
candy, alcoholic beverages, speed, late hours, Rover, with the financial reserves now available, why
advertising, food… all are being subject to regulation should any established brand not be for sale? The
that limits choice and how we get to know about it. Chinese production model is all about the right products
- good quality at a low price and the brand is a
The way forward is for all to get used to the new world
secondary issue. Yes, there is the luxury sector - the
and operate by the new rules. While a few of the usual
Gucci, Prada, Louis Vuitton segment of the fashion
suspects may put up national or regional protectionist
industry and its like in electronics and automobiles, but
barriers, the realities of global trade are all too clear and
that is, by its very nature, niche - and increasingly Asian
we can see the end of variety. In fact we can see a
in production. Moreover, culturally intensive products, a
changing balance between variety and cost.
traditional refuge of variety, are under threat by
Consumers are making a trade-off in a smart way and
consumer unwillingness to pay.
cost is winning. We therefore face the challenge of how
to deal with a reduction in the number of options in the In the next ten years I see the rise of Asian retailing
categories of consumption but an expansion in the driven initially by the sheer size of the associated
number of categories. domestic markets and then a move into the
international arena. The Aldi model will win over the
Hypermarkets and department stores will all struggle in
Wal-Mart one, but what about a Chinese Aldi selling
the next decade: They may reduce their product mix
products made by a Chinese P&G? Who could
down from 26000 SKUs (stock keeping units) to 16000,
compete against that combination? I believe that this
but continuing to provide consumers with such choice is
will occur without any significant backlash. Consumers
unsustainable when discount stores only have to provide
will follow the mainstream and quickly get used to less
1000 SKUs - an increase in the assortment from the 800
choice given the benefit of lower cost. This will apply
they offer today. Commoditization is the way forward for
across the board.
the mainstream majority and in many sectors this will
mean a race to the bottom in terms of margins. The only categories where I see an alternative future
Department stores need a continuous stream of new are those that are affected by time; perishable products
ideas and innovation to keep their mix fresh and so attract (food), live content (broadcast) and extreme time to
high-end consumers, but in a world of less variety where market goods (those that respond to latent consumer
high quality, low cost Asian products dominate, why will needs) will be relatively immune. Indeed, if the quality
the majority seek out the niche brands? of the staple products is to improve and local production

Future of Choice 15


We can foresee increases to ensure security of supply, we can see destinations, or hundreds of lifestyle drugs. We will see
a world in which rising costs on the horizon - but still with less variety of more of these and, in addition, many disruptive and
Zara and H&M
are more
choice. In 2020 how many of us in Europe will eat complex new products, services or solutions will grab
successful than strawberries in December? the attention of an already over-solicited and less
Gap and Neiman affluent consumer. As the number of categories
Marcus and Choice will also be limited by our ability to process
expands, choice will have to be shared among, rather
the Aldi model information. Ten years ago we did not have MP3s,
wins over the than within, categories of consumption.
PVRs, thousands of interesting websites, travel
Wal-Mart one.


With the certainty that variety will lose out to speed and cost, we can foresee a world in which Zara and H&M
are more successful than Gap and Neiman Marcus and, as mentioned earlier, the Aldi model wins over Wal-
Mart one. Hypermarkets and department stores will lose out to discount stores and the speed merchants. This
is clear. The shape of retailing has changed and the consequences over the next decade will be driven by a
clear-out of the also-rans.

One likely development is in the food sector which is increasing health costs and long-term disease risks, I
fast-becoming the tobacco of the 21st Century. We are see that regulators will act. The industry will have to sort
progressing towards a model where no single itself out and we will see more transparency on
organization can have as much influence as they have ingredients. More variety in food is nonsense. We will
had in the past and we will become accustomed to a see a shift to less. Less choice maybe better and
restriction in our freedom of choice. As suggested hence, by 2020, again I see less choice within
previously, the obesity epidemic has not been categories but more choice between categories. This
adequately moderated by the food industry and so will benefit the leading companies (a winner takes all
governments will increasingly intervene to limit choice. proposition) as well as the most flexible, pragmatic, and
Healthier foods will cease to be an option but instead adaptive followers.
will become the norm. Portion size will be reduced and
The other certainty I see is a reduction in the number of
low fat and low salt will be the new default standards.
players within each category. The top mega-brands will
Although some companies, such as Mars and Coca-
survive as will some of the most efficient non-brands.
Cola, have been proactive in cutting back on advertising
But there will be a clear out of the middle market - the
and taking away vending machines from within schools,
me-too brands will become ex-brands and will disappear.
and PepsiCo especially has shifted towards lower fat
products, the majority of the food sector has not made Some may see that there is uncertainty in how
a sufficient move over the past decade. So, faced with consumers will react to less variety. I see that, if they

16 Future of Choice

are not given so much choice, the mainstream majority who will be interested in the hundreds of non-electric Europe with
will follow where they are led. Take, for example, what alternatives? Regulation, public opinion and financial around 200m
active consumers
will happen when the first Renault, Citroen and VW incentives will all accelerate the migration of the will become a
electric cars are launched into the European market in consumer vehicle fleet to electric and we will not care secondary
2012. When consumers are given an option to buy one about the reduction in choice. influence to
Asia with 4bn.
of, say ten efficient, zero emission, zero-tax vehicles,

The Way Forward

Given the impact of the global downturn, in the retail arena I don’t think that we will be returning to a business
as usual world. Consumer attitudes have changed to shift many of us away from wanting increased variety.
In addition, the framework within which we consume has changed: Governments, the big brands, the
acceleration of China and retail efficiency are all creating a new landscape within which our choice will become
more limited: Less will be less not more. Variety is increasing across categories not within them.

Over the next ten years we will see a reduction in the supermarkets like Aldi demonstrates, variety will be
number of players per category. As variety is reduced substituted by budget. I see that, in the forthcoming
and commoditization increases, only the #1 and #2 decade, many retailers will struggle to compete and fall
brands will survive. So what about #3, #4 and #5? The down in between the leaders in providing low cost
playing field for the future will be increasingly commodites and trend setting. As the continued growth
determined by whoever sets the standards. And the of fast-fashion chains such as Zara and H&M reveals,
standards will be set by the category leaders and the providing a limited but fast-changing product range is
biggest marketplaces - the US, China and India - it is more profitable that holding a broad portfolio to cover
a numbers game. Europe with around 200m active the full range of potential consumer choice. We have
consumers will become a secondary influence to Asia now entered a world in which the distinction between
with 4bn. Therefore, as products and services are prediction and following of trends has become blurred.
configured to meet the global consumer, who will be Given the speed with which Zara changes its product
increasingly Asian, the variety of choice will become mix, we are no longer certain whether media leads
less influential than scale and speed of delivery. fashion or vice-versa. But who leads who is irrelevant
when we, as consumers, don’t have to choose. The
Back in the 1950s William Starbuck developed one of
decisions about what we can buy are made for us and
the few ideas in retailing to have lasted: Every retail
so variety again reduces. The most important capability
model is substituted by a more efficient one. This has
for any manufacturer seeking a decent margin will be
been the case for the last 50 years and I see no reason
the ability to produce faster than the diffusion of a
for change in the future. As the success of discount
trend. Scale will dominate over choice.

Future of Choice 17


It may seem In addition, we are facing greater intervention of an reduction in variety in the consumption of products
counterintuitive increasing number of influential bodies and groups and services. As they have in the past impacted
but fewer
choices provide
into the world of retailing which will all align to reduce alcohol and tobacco, so in the next decade they will
higher levels our freedom of choice. The media, public opinion and impact other areas of consumption from food and
of satisfaction government regulation are moving us towards a fashion to transport.

Impacts and Implications

As variety reduces some may question whether consumers will miss the old days. I don’t believe so. Some
of our recent research at IESE has explored choice from a number of dimensions. It may seem counter-
intuitive but fewer choices provide higher levels of satisfaction: People like to have lots of variety, but when
faced with too many choices, we tend to vacillate and delay decisions. We may want 31 options instead of
six, but we find it easier to choose one of six than one of 31. In a series of experiments with men and women
from a range of different cultures we found that the greatest level of satisfaction, both with the final choice
and the decision-making process, was reached when people chose from an intermediate number of
alternatives as opposed to large or small choice sets. These findings have practical implications for people
offering many choices to customers, consumer and employees today. Going forward, I see that this supports
my notion that we will see little consumer backlash against a reduction of variety.

Moving to the wider impacts of how I see the future of path or finding their own way forward which creates and
choice, it is clear that, although some may see my view sustains a unique position in the marketplace. Yes, my
as being a little negative from a Western perspective, it views on choice and the mainstream may sound alarm
does highlight the dynamics at play across the retail bells for many in the middle market today, but they
environment of the next ten years. As we are cognizant should also provide a stimulus for others to think
of a world in which less variety is the predominant shift differently about the new competitive landscape.
for most, if not all, categories, then, as manufacturers
The future of choice is about less variety, but this does
and retailers, we can prepare ourselves for a new
not mean less interest. The products that will succeed
paradigm. With good quality, low-cost, mass
in the future will be the ones that offer global customers
commoditization the norm for the mainstream, we either
what they want, even if it is before they have recognized
need to compete on these terms or else migrate to the
what that is. The successful retailers of the future will
margins. I have highlighted the successful approaches
provide consumers with a smaller portfolio of products
taken by Spanish Zara and Swedish H&M in the fashion
than their predecessors did in the past, but the portfolio
industry where they have both developed fast-fashion
will be higher selling products. Less variety means fewer
as a core capability. There is nothing to stop other
SKUs but fewer SKUs mean more efficient retailing.
companies in other categories from following the same

18 Future of Choice

The future of
choice is about
less variety,
but this does
not mean less
interest.

19

Professor Richard Burdett
Centennial Professor in Architecture and Urbanism, London School of Economics

Future of Cities

20


The big issues facing cities are clear: Think globalisation, immigration, jobs, social exclusion and sustainability: Although cities
Given that global urbanisation is taking place at an unprecedented speed with a scale, diversity, complexity themselves have
a remarkable
and level of connectivity that challenges all existing perceptions, questions regarding the size, speed of growth, ability to innovate,
shape and land use of cities have become increasingly complex and politicised. Although cities themselves there are broad
have a remarkable ability to innovate, there are broad disconnects between urban change and urban policy. disconnects
between urban
The priority, therefore, must be to identify ways in which policy makers can create a regulatory environment
change and
that provides a framework for sustainable forms of urban development. urban policy.

Urban growth is being fuelled by new levels of mobility Even the most advanced firms need cleaners, lorry
and migration of diverse populations within and across drivers, and secretaries. How must cities adapt to fit
nations especially in China, Brazil and India. These the needs of all? Also how do we adapt to the possibility
rural-to-urban migrants are pulled by the tantalizing that we are seeing an internationalised labour market
prospects of jobs and opportunity, driven by the harsh for low wage manual and service workers? How do we
realities of rural life. Cities like Mumbai experience 42 adapt housing design and create neighbourhoods that
people moving into the city per hour. Where do you will benefit local communities and encourage urban
house them and what infrastructure do you provide for integration?
them? Transport, electricity, sewers and water systems
Technological innovation has shrunk the world reducing
- these are technical issues that need to be addressed
the cost of transmitting to virtually nothing. Internet
in a way that is environmentally smart.
users in developing countries could constitute more
Migration and in-migration has also created an urban than half the world total within 5 years if trends persist.
underclass which is often allocated to specific areas of The reality of urban connectivity taken to its logical
the city. Paris is a perfect example. The physical conclusion will create a network of interlinked cities
infrastructure, with the beauty and qualities that we all connected, and soon to be even more connected, by
admire, has frozen. This means that all its growth (with modern rails and technology. Consider also the effects
increasing immigration from 1945 and onward) has of mobility and transport systems on social cohesion
created ghettoization. This kind of imbalance in social and economic viability.
mobility must be addressed.
Lastly, any future urban model must of course be
The changing nature of work will also impact on the sustainable. If we are to make up for past failures,
physical form of cities. The global economy was born cities will have to produce more energy than they need,
out of the power of trans-national corporations and become net carbon absorbers, collect and process
global communications technologies. How does it affect waste within city limits and collect and clean recycled
the way we live? If we focus on the fact that power water. All this should happen in parallel to the creation
and communications capacities need to be produced, of wealth and the promotion of social wellbeing and
implemented and managed, it becomes clear that cities individual health.
still have an important role to play but their layout and
functionality may be different.

Future of Cities 21



Can planners Can planners adapt with sufficient speed to create policies which address the challenges we face? There
adapt with seems to be a disconnect between the complexity of challenges of the urban age and our current set of urban
sufficient speed
to create policies
solutions. Planners and urban governance must consider re-evaluating how they address the problems they
which address face and consider multi-dimensional, integrated interventions rather than specific policies covering specialised
the challenges issues (education, health, housing etc). If, for example, housing is going to be a platform for opportunity, then
we face?
housing policies must connect with education, transportation and childcare; if transportation is going to
There seems to
be a disconnect promote mobility and advance sustainability, then transportation policies need to expand choice and embrace
between the dense, transit rich corridors of mixed residential, retail and employment use. Ultimately, to be successful, we
complexity of also need to share innovations across networks of urban researchers, practitioners and policy makers across
challenges of the
the developed and developing world.
urban age and
our current set
of solutions. We should also consider how we manage the dramatic Can cities address the environmental crisis of global
upturn in immigration and address the fight against warming and climate change? Rapid urbanisation has
poverty. One billion people live in disease spreading no doubt exacerbated environmental pressures but
slums characterized by inadequate housing, unsafe cities offer the best promise of developing in ways that
drinking water and open sewer systems. This makes are environmentally sound and energy efficient - a pre-
the builders of informal housing the largest housing requisite of global prosperity. The need is to develop
developers in the world and it is they who are carbon reduction policies - such as London’s
creating the cities of tomorrow. We can plan for this congestion charge, for example, at the same time as
“unplanned” inevitability. There are already noticeable improving infrastructure. This is why the planners in
success stories; take for example Ciuadad Neza in London are focusing on improving the transport
Mexico City where, as hundreds of thousand infrastructure and have committed to reduce C02
immigrants arrive each year, an open-ended and emissions by 60% by 2050 focussing on existing
networked community is succeeding in establishing a housing stock which accounts for nearly 40% of
lively economy out of literally nothing. Yet cities offer today’s emissions.
the promise of ultimately connecting hundreds of
millions of workers to the expanding job opportunities
offered by the global economy.

22 Future of Cities

Proposed Way Forward

You can become very depressed about cities of the future when you look at all the challenges facing us. There is little
But, the more I go and visit cities and through the work we do at The London School of Economics, the more doubt that, seen
through the lens
I think that there are solutions. They depend on people rather than policies - it could be a mayor making a of efficiency,
decision or a community activist. more densely
populated,
compact cities
New Delhi, for instance, holds 13-14 million people series of young men and women who have worked
such as Hong
depending on the time of day. It used to have the together to create a communal bathroom (toilet). Kong and
highest pollution rates in the world but then overnight all Where people don’t have water and don’t have toilets, Manhattan are
the auto-rickshaws and the buses were made to change this place is important because it’s where people meet. inherently more
sustainable
from diesel to natural gas. If you can use natural gas in They have created a moment of pause in the city. This places to live
New Delhi, then why can’t you use it everywhere? is one of many projects that I saw in Mumbai, New than the likes of
Delhi and elsewhere which are fantastically powerful Houston and
In London we use congestion charge, which is very Mexico City.
and are done by individuals.
effective in re-prioritizing the traffic. There are clear
environmental benefits but a radical social difference is Cities are often at the forefront of the delivery of cultural
a 100% increase in bus use by the middle class. If you richness In Mexico city, for example, there is a fantastic
get the middle class onto public transport you are initiative which is called the ‘Fallon’, The Lighthouse,
winning, and that’s a great example. signifying hope; a stunning project designed by an
architect called Callas. Next to it is an area of
Tokyo is the largest city in the world. Its transport
approximately a million people living under the poorest
system, integrated by overhead and underground rail
conditions, a lot of them using the nearby rubbish tip as
systems, means that the average commute is around
a way of living, recycling whatever is there, living at the
one hour. Compare that to Los Angeles where the
bottom. The Lighthouse is a cultural centre where kids
average commute is about two hours and at least 80%
learn how to paint and do art. Mexico City is a city of
of the population takes the car to work. In Tokyo, 80%
enormous violence; people don’t feel safe going out
of the population use public transport. There is little
and whenever there is a crowd of people together the
doubt that, seen through the lens of efficiency, more
police try to break it up. So an outdoor music area is a
densely populated, compact cities such as Hong Kong
no-go area. Outside the Lighthouse they have built a
and Manhattan are inherently more sustainable places
simple amphitheatre out of earth where they hold music
to live than the likes of Houston and Mexico City.
concerts in the summer. This does more to lift the
However, across the scale empowerment becomes spirits of the community than any policy I ever saw the
significant; you need to have a system which allows mayor or the politicians do. At the centre of this is the
people on the ground to solve the problems where they physical environment. By designing spaces you can
need to be solved. I go through the tiny streets of a make an enormous change.
small slum area of the outskirts of Mumbai and I see a

Future of Cities 23



Cities are notjust Perhaps more than ever before, the shape of cities, how much land they occupy, how much energy they
a concentration consume, how their transport infrastructure is organised and where people are housed - in remote segregated
of problems -
but they are also
environments behind walls or in integrated neighbourhoods close to jobs, facilities and transport - all affect
places where the environmental, economic and social sustainability of global society. Cities are not just a concentration of
problems can problems - but they are also places where problems can be solved.
be solved.

Cities of the future have to be organic, flexible and Creating more compact urban environments generally
versatile. As society and aspirations alter over time, the will result in more efficient infrastructures: One direct
city has to adapt to change. Utopian cities have never consequence of variation in population density is the
worked. The people that created Rome, New York and associated energy demands: Tighter, more compact
London certainly didn’t think of them as fixed artifacts cities have far lower energy use per capita than more
that wouldn’t change over time. We have to be clever spread out ones: So, as energy costs continue to
enough as urban designers to design the city like a escalate and energy security becomes even more of an
metabolism, like a body. When it gets older and weaker, issue over the next decade, this inherent design
you do corrective surgery. Cities need to be versatile; relationship will come more to the fore.
otherwise they fossilize and die. For example, many
The quality of a city does not only concern the
cities of the last 50 years have been designed around
environment. We mustn’t forget that cities are about
the needs of the car. But as oil costs soar and the city
people coming together. Ultimately a city may be very
of the future will increasingly need adapt to modes of
efficient in terms of CO2 emission but if the places
transportation that are not petrol-dependent. This will
where we come together are not beautiful (a word
have a significant impact on the shape of the city.
which is rarely used in this debate) and if the places
In order to be versatile and responsive to change the don’t have a wonderful relationship to urban nature - a
sustainable city will also have to be compact. A city like river, water or views that compensate for this human
Mexico City, which goes on for 100 kilometers in one closeness, this is not a city that people will want to live
direction and 150 kilometers in another, has hardly any in. The qualities I am looking for in a city that is
chance of actually becoming sustainable. On the other sustainable, that embraces the notion of versatility, that
hand a city like New York or Copenhagen and a city like is compact, that offers bounds of beauty in its buildings
London which has highs and lows of density, has the and the quality of its open spaces.
potential to become sustainable within the next 30 years.

24 Future of Cities

The qualities I
am looking for
in a city that is
sustainable, that
embraces the
notion of
versatility, that
is compact, that
offers bounds
of beauty in its
buildings and the
quality of its
open spaces.

25

Jan Färjh
Vice President and Head of Ericsson Research

Future of Connectivity

26


The internet has finally gone mobile. Today over 300m of us access the web using mobile technology. In 2010 In a couple of
the number of subscribers reaches 1bn, surpassing the number of fixed internet users. In a couple of years years the number
of mobile
the number of mobile broadband connections will be in the order of 4 to 5bn - with the majority of new broadband
consumers coming from China and India. By 2020 there may well be as many as 50bn devices connected connections will
to each other. These devices will work across different networks which, in turn, will be connected to each be in the order
of 4 to 5bn - with
other. This global, pervasive connectivity will facilitate new types of services and opportunities for people,
the majority of
industry, and society but it won’t be an easy journey. Delivering this vision is a major commercial and technical new consumers
challenge for the ICT sector, but on the other hand very exciting. coming from
China and India.

Technology in itself will not be a restricting factor. the potential to bring extraordinary benefits, for some it
Transport, access, storage, and processing will all thrive will be a real challenge to adapt to this. Information on
on the continued effects of Moore’s law and almost everything is now widely available making
miniaturization will continue where beneficial. High industries and markets much more transparent and
performing systems are of course an absolute necessity efficient. However, the way consumers share information
but the implementation challenge is not straightforward. and communicate with each other, utilizing a variety of
We need to consider how to deal with the phenomenal online social networking tools, IPTV, images and video,
increase in capacity both in terms of number of devices means that how we give and receive information is
to be handled but also in terms of the amount of becoming increasingly personalised. This, in turn, means
information that will be exchanged between these that individuals, more than ever before, have to manage
devices. Power consumption will also still be an issue their own public identity. This indicates that concerns
because of battery lifetime and sustainability concerns. around cyber crime and data protection will continue to
So, how can we develop a system that is cost - rise. As a result, security and consumer protection
effective, adaptable, easily deployed and, most related issues will become increasingly important.
importantly, simple to use? How can we develop
Business will also have to adapt to a changing
networks that are self-deployed, self-operated and self-
environment as their services are increasingly delivered
maintained? These questions cannot be answered by
online. In a world of endless choice and seemingly
technology alone; in order to achieve success we need
complete transparency some will be hard put to
collaboration between network providers, device
differentiate themselves. Of course, communications
manufacturers and, of course, policy makers both
technology is not in itself a limiting factor for the
nationally and internationally.
diffusion of new products and services - in fact
What will this mean for consumers? Essentially evidence suggests quite the opposite - those who are
ubiquitous connectivity will continue to change the basic successful will have made the most of the opportunity.
structure and conditions of our lives and, although it has This is why brand identity will continue to dominate.

Future of Connectivity 27



Machine to By 2020 the majority of the world’s population will have access to basic telecommunications services.
machine and However, even though the current development pace is high, with more connected devices and availability of
process to
process
internet access “everywhere”, it is still uncertain how fast this will really impact and change conditions for other
communications value chains, industries and daily lives. This depends on many factors including the rate at which networks
as well as can be rolled out and the connection speeds that will be possible. Where there is connectivity, smart phones
tools leveraging
and devices will enable people to leapfrog a generation of technology, especially for those who never had a
data mining will
all flourish as land line phone. Mobile voice increase in developing economies may slow down but these markets will add
sustainability local innovation and stay in the forefront with overall growth consistently higher than in mature markets. It is
efficiency also likely that Broadband access penetration will increase primarily by means of radio solutions in developing
measures will
markets outside areas where fixed broadband is economically feasible.
be taken
across the board
and in all We face rising populations and increased dependency represents 2 percent of global CO2 emissions, it has a
enterprises.
ratios which will be exacerbated by scarcities of clear role to play in reducing the remaining 98 percent
resources and environmental requirements. In order to from other sources. Therefore expect a boom in
maintain standards of living with substantial and innovation of services to meet this emerging
continued global productivity improvements will demand; e-government, e-health, e-education, e-work,
be needed. This will partly be enabled by the telepresence, logistics and energy management
communication industry and, particularly when services will all increase. Machine-to-machine and
combined with other vital industries such as process-to-process communications as well as tools
transportation and healthcare, will play an important role leveraging data mining will all flourish as sustainability
in addressing this need. For example, scarcity of labour efficiency measures will be taken across the board and
can, to an extent, be mitigated if machine to machine in all enterprises.
(M2M) communication is used to address labour
In the corporate world, there will be a blurring of borders
intensive tasks; automation is specific vertical industries
between large and small enterprises with large scale
can be enabled by connected sensor networks. In
companies deploying true global operating models,
addition, self-service solutions will also continue to grow
increased inter-company collaboration and workers
far beyond today’s e-bank and e-retailer services
increasingly tele-working and being loosely connected
applications into areas such as government and
to organizations. As creative knowledge workers
healthcare; and, the increased global use of mobile,
become strategic assets for companies, IT budgets will
video and internet will mean that people can benefit
increasingly be geared at making them effective.
from the services they need more quickly at less cost.
Increased connectivity will enable competitive
Sustainability is certainly high on the agenda for the advantages and new business models to be sought
next decade and here ICT can make a large from mining massive amounts of data. For instance
contribution. As the world measures more or less real-time business intelligence and statistical
everything by new sustainability standards, whether experimentation, real-time management of goods in
quality of life, business success or government actions, world-wide distribution and logistics chains and targeted
there is potential for connectivity to play a significant advertising solutions will all require data systems that
role in areas such as carbon mitigation. A recent report will be enabled by falling prices on data storage,
(SMART 2020) concluded that, although ICT merely communications and processing.

28 Future of Connectivity

User generated content will also probably continue to telecom services revenue streams at the current price Technology in
grow strongly, increasing traffic and the abundance of levels. That said, as media consumption continues to itself will not
be a limiting factor
available information, However, the impact on media become more fragmented an interactive, the gap and there will be
value chains and the commercial value of that content between the rapidly growing online share of media time, the introduction
is unclear. The online advertising market will grow, but and the online share of the global advertising budget, of many more
new products
will not be of a magnitude sufficient to substitute will close.
and services.


Looking to 2020, we see that, while the technology platforms that will enable global ubiquitous connectivity
are clear, the way in which businesses, society and individuals use these could vary significantly. Some
examples of scenarios that might occur can be described as follows:

We see an increased separation between the content As with many scenarios, we see that the way forward
and services that people use and the means by which will probably be a hybrid of these. An open application
it will be delivered. Companies with strong brands will environment will enable new services and applications
shape the communications industry and their services to combine adjacent scientific fields such as energy,
could be delivered over the top of independent network food, water, transport, health and ICT - globally and
providers and will be tightly integrated with devices. locally. Everything that could benefit from a wireless
Simplicity and convenience is the driving force and network will have one. Industries will become
brand loyalty will win over variety. increasingly mobilized and there will be an increasing
share of services delivered online. Technology in itself
The sustainability agenda comes to the fore and
will not be a limiting factor and there will be the
changes the conditions for societies, companies and
introduction of many more new products and services.
individuals worldwide. In order to reduce travel and
Usability and simplicity will be in high demand, fixed and
energy consumption there will be an acceleration of
mobile broadband will converge and 50 billion devices
new mobile internet services for health, government,
will be connected globally.
work and machine-to-machine (M2M) operations.
Increased regulation will come into place to secure
affordable services and drive industry players to pool
their resources to ensure that networks are capable,
reliable and robust.

Future of Connectivity 29



It is possible Full global connectivity is already well underway. It has already changed the way we communicate with other
to suggest people and groups. The amount of information we can share and the speed with which we can share it is
that access to
advanced
increasing rapidly. Indeed, it is possible to suggest that access to advanced communications will be come
communications a “universal right” and that a wide and deep penetration of networks and services is a prerequisite for the
will be come a continued struggle against climate change and poverty. This suggests that universal services requirements
“universal right”
will drive new investments in the industry, while measures to keep services affordable (e.g. price regulation)
may reduce revenues and profits leading to increased pressure for lower cost and higher efficiency.

In the next decade, addressing the major global Most other areas will to some extent be affected by
challenges and a continued shift to wireless and online global connectivity: Money, authenticity, transport, travel,
services will bring forward new societal vulnerabilities. mHealth, privacy, identity, energy, cities, migration, food,
‘Cyber crime’ and malware may be increasingly water, waste. For all these areas you can find a use for
common, and dependencies on the availability of connectivity. Global connectivity can change, improve
information and communication systems will increase. and be used to catalyze innovation in everything.
Restricted online anonymity and privacy will also raise
Real change, however, can only be made when
integrity concerns. As a result, security and consumer
communication technology is properly integrated into
protection related regulation will increase and industries
adjacent scientific fields. This will open up new services
will move to capture these new opportunities.
in a wide range of complementary industries such as
IP will be the prevailing delivery vehicle for much of our healthcare, automation, positioning and information
connectivity, and the vertical dependence between management. It is clear that everything that can benefit
services and infrastructures may gradually disappear. from a network connection will have one. Not only will
Users will access services and content independently of more people be connected, but devices for various
the network provider to a larger extent. Business types of automated services and functions (e.g. energy
models will vary, but lower entry barriers and innovation meters, surveillance, climate sensors, e-health sensors,
globally will also increase the number of providers and industry process automation) will exchange data
offering the same service - but at a reduced cost to and change lives.
consumers of financed by alternative business models,
such as increasing advertising revenues.

30 Future of Connectivity

It is clear that
everything that
can benefit
from a network
connection will
have one.

31

Dr. Rajiv Kumar
Chief Executive, ICRIER

Future of Currency

32


I see that greatest challenge for the next decade to be a fundamental one - what should the world’s currencies The status of the
be? Over the last century we have seen the rise of the US dollar as the primary unit of global currency which US dollar as
the global reserve
we use to measure and value much of our relative individual, organisational and national wealth and currency is
investments, and through which we exchange, trade and price commodities, businesses, goods and services. however under
The status of the US dollar as the global reserve currency is however under enormous pressure and, with the enormous
pressure
rise of new currency blocs in the world, many have been asking whether the Euro will emerge as an alternative
reserve currency. The 2008-9 financial crisis put enough pressure on the US currency to such an extent that
many now see that we need an alternative, but the question is what? Will the US remain as the pre-eminent
financial power or will its influence secularly decline stimulated by the recent crisis and its inability to achieve
a major technological breakthrough or exercise the necessary conditions for it to remain a reserve currency?
And, if we go for an alternative, why would this be the Euro?

By 2020, will we, for instance, therefore see the ACU We also have the impact of replacing printed and
(Asian Currency Unit) develop from an Asian Monetary minted money with electronic equivalents: The move to
Union to become the third global currency alongside digital money will certainly raise a number of major
the Euro and the dollar? While Asia may not be ready issues. Especially as the banking and mobile
for a common currency, the time is right to work telecommunications sectors see their interests
towards a parallel currency. Furthermore, within this converge in developing more widespread electronic
context, would the ACU be pegged to the Yuan or the transactions which will minimise the use of cash, or
Yen? And will the Rupee be part of the basket that even traditional credit as we know it, digital money will
determines the value of the ACU? These global have increasing applicability. As banks adopt new
currency reserve questions are a primary challenge for software and the Bank for International Settlements
the world’s economies for the next ten years. develops guidelines for electronic money, its movement
across national borders will become practical. However,
While I see that this is the main issue, I believe that
what is the real pace of the related technologies and
during the next decade we will also have to address two
who either individually or collectively will emerge as the
other significant issues along the way:
real driver for this convergence? Given the access gap
One of the most important of these is the continuation that still exists for significant proportions of the
of money laundering that will increasingly impact the population in many developing nations, will we need to
smaller economies as the larger ones take steps to wait for true, near ubiquitous mobile connectivity and
minimize the impact on their own systems. Will such 24/7 energy supply before digital money can really
countries as Switzerland and The Bahamas, as well as have global impact?
other financial havens, finally be brought into the
Both of these issues will have impact upon international
financial mainstream and stop affording haven status
remittances, inter-bank transfers and the many
to residents of other countries? Will the advanced
associated financial vehicles that are presently in place.
economies come together and force the emerging
economies to join in the move against laundered and ill
gotten wealth?

Future of Currency 33



De-leveraging is It is certain that for the next decade the US dollar will remain as one of the reserve currencies. As such it will
already happening still be a key currency for foreign exchange and a transaction currency for international trade and investments
as individuals
and governments
in 2020. The US dollar will continue to be integrated into, and influential upon, the world economy.
across Asia
decrease their Over the same period, it is possible, but not highly sustainable in the long term and, as such, a leverage
investments in
probable, that the Euro will become a major reserve based model cannot continue. The 2008 shock to the
the US dollar.
currency. Although the European Monetary Union led to global financial system could have significant influence:
the public introduction of the Euro in 2002, this was De-leveraging is already happening as individuals and
twenty years after the first creation of the ECU as an governments across Asia decrease their investments in
artificial basket currency used by participating countries the US dollar.
as their internal accounting unit. It is unlikely that,
That said, over the next decade, it is unlikely that we will
another two decades later, the Euro will have become
really see the emergence of the ACU as the third
quite as significant a currency as the dollar, but it may
currency block. This is because Asians cannot decide
not be far off. A world where the Euro has equal status
on either a viable collation or leadership by one of the
to the dollar as a reserve currency is increasingly
countries. As experts, including Jin-Chuan Duan at the
credible.
National University of Singapore, have highlighted:
However, at the same time, it is certain that the Yuan although much debated, Asian Monetary Union looks
is emerging as the central focus for economic and unlikely in the short term. Just as with the formation of
financial activity in Asia with increasing number of the ERM and the Euro, the realisation of the ACU as a
transactions occurring in that currency, though with single regional currency would demand cross subsidy
limited convertibility. We have seen the rise of China to via taxation between countries, the loss of autonomy in
become the world’s primary economic power. This is the conduct of monetary policy and the partial surrender
accompanied by a similar rise of India and the of some national sovereignty: Right now the Asian
associated rebalancing of wealth between the West version of the Euro is theoretically possible but
and the East. Although the recent economic model has practically far from certain. However, dual currency
largely been one where Asians produce goods that are systems are common and I believe that, although Asian
bought by Americans using money that is lent back to Monetary Union is improbable by 2020, a parallel
them by the Asians, this may not last much longer: As currency ACU that allows for exchange rate
a number of commentators, including historian Niall adjustments is practical. But the ACU must be based
Ferguson, have argued this ‘Chimerica’ balance is not on a wider basket than just the ASEAN countries.

34 Future of Currency


Over the next decade, we will move unmistakably towards a multi-polar world which will be characterized by The introduction
a much broader consultative process that extends to a larger number of jurisdictions. Greater coordination of a broad-basket
ACU (Asian
amongst major economies on financial sector regulation will be needed, and this can be facilitated by the Currency Unit)
newly enlarged Financial Stability Board based in Basle. At its core, the coordination will have to be aimed as the third global
at achieving greater trust in the transparent and universally applicable working of the financial system. This reserve currency
will provide the
will especially need to dispel the fear that the global financial system has a bias in favour of any one country
world with the
or group of countries or group of dominant institutions. As the G20 has superseded the G7, financial opportunity to
management of the global system must become more equable: Within this it is possible that a more prominent more appropriately
role is given to Special Drawing Rights - the international reserve assets managed by the IMF that currently balance economic
influence and
amount to over $300 billion. It was used to boost global liquidity in 2009, but additional ongoing and arguably
trade.
more proactive applications should be made more practical.

In a similar manner to how Shell’s current global scenarios Many would correctly suggest that a true single world
outline the future for the energy sector, I see that the currency is not practical: Differential interest rates and
challenge in the financial world is to also ensure that we selective monetary policies make it impossible and
try our best to follow the ‘blueprint’ and not the currency harmonization cannot readily be implemented
‘scramble’ approach: I suggest that we need to while different countries are in different stages of
strengthen the global coordination mechanisms to economic development. The IMF is not a super central
facilitate the monitoring of global financial flows and bank and turning Special Drawing Rights into a world
enable the emergence of new technologies to help currency is neither possible nor practical. However, the
balance the system. The major economies represented introduction of a broad basket ACU as the third global
in the G20 need to agree to have some arrangement for reserve currency will provide the world with the
a universally acceptable reserve currency, starting as a opportunity to more appropriately balance economic
unit of account and then also phasing it in as a currency influence and trade.
of exchange. I believe that we should adopt such a
universally acceptable currency that does not face the
risk of being debased as a result of the fiscal and
financial indiscipline on the part of any one country. The
ACU has the potential to be that currency. But to function
as such it must include the Rupee: India is currently the
largest economy of South Asia and plays a far more
influential role across Asia as a whole than many of the
ASEAN countries. The ACU has been seen as a
precursor to a common future currency, just as the ECU
was for the Euro. Therefore, it is important to focus on
how the world will therefore look when this occurs - India
is currently poised to be the third largest economy in the
world over the next 30 years. Hence the inclusion of
India in Asian economic monetary integration is prudent.

Future of Currency 35

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