James Maddock, Head of Global Occupier Services - Cushman & Wakefield-EMEA
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The document discusses how corporate real estate is responding to various trends and disruptions from the gig economy and other technological innovations. These include new forms of flexible workspaces, mobility solutions like driverless cars and drones, 3D printing, wireless technologies, the internet of things, building robotization, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, and machine learning. Real estate will need to adapt spaces and places to support new kinds of jobs, digital and remote working, wellness, experiences, and the needs of a changing workforce.
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James Maddock, Head of Global Occupier Services - Cushman & Wakefield-EMEA
- 1. How Corporate Real Estate is responding Gig Economy2 + CRE2 = THE FUTURE
- 2. Key Occupier Influencers GIG ECONOMY Governance and Regulation Global volatility Cyber Crime Rapid Urbanisation Internet of Things Digital and Social Media Blockchain Demographics and Social Change Global Supply Chain Big Data Working Trends Experience not Just Service Disruption / Cost vs. Value Sustainability Premiumisation/ Love Marks Happiness/ Wellbeing Artificial Intelligence / Bots Emerging Markets Gamification The Rise of the Solopreneurs SME Growth Crowd Funding Non Asset Businesses
- 3. Car Parking vs. new driverless technology vs. Uber The courage to change ways of thinking and to question what exists is a decisive pre-requisite for permanent progress this is why we have set up the AUDI urban future initiative, in order to draw attention to and press ahead along routes to a sustainable and responsible future. ROBERT STADLER, CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD OF MANAGEMENT OF AUDI AG Parking garages for self parking cars could create space savings of 60%
- 4. When it comes to the commercial use of drones, one size doesn’t fit all. Each industry has different needs, requiring different drone functionalities. ONE CONCEPT, MANY USAGESMention the words ‘small drone’ and what might come to mind are hobbyists flying remote-controlled (RC) objects resembling miniature helicopters. Though many operate drones for fun, the technology is also gaining acceptance on the commercial side. TIME.COM 86% of Amazon’s inventory can be delivered by drone. REAL ESTATE AND CONSTRUCTION STRUCTURAL MAINTENANCE LAND MANAGEMENT Drones and Logistics SUPPLY CHAIN DELIVERY
- 5. Purple bricks example … property revolution into a financial phenomenon in under four years. PurpleBricks becomes the first online estate agent to list on the London Stock Market. TELEGRAPH the ‘world’s first 24 hour estate agent’.
- 6. MakerBot Manufacturing hasn't seen a significant shake up in years, but MakerBot, whose 3D printers allow users to create 3D models of just about anything, could give it a jolt. MAKER-BOT These days, the printers are still fairly expensive (around $2,200) and are best used to make children's toys. But the technology is improving fast, and it's now able to replicate more intricate designs, which could let people bypass the store to simply print out new items at home. VCs believe in the idea. Makerbot has collected $10 million in funding so far. MAKER-BOT
- 7. Wireless Electricity As people become more and more gadget focused, keeping those items charged is becoming a bigger issue. A house full of cords is ugly – and hotel rooms rarely offer enough plugs. UBEAM Scientists send energy 55 meters away through air RT.COM
- 8. Wireless access on the go Consumers value experiences over things and travel is huge component of that experience that we want to enrich for them. We see Boingo and the access to unlimited Wi-Fi through hotspots as an essential travel companion for those consumers. BOINGO Research shows that travel and being connected while traveling are both increasing priorities to people around the world. Busy, connected travellers value complimentary Wi-Fi both in hotels and while flying, which is why Mastercard is creating benefits and programs geared towards supporting the experiences they desire. PYMNTS.COM
- 9. Building robotization The Edge building, Amsterdam …Occupants, Building Systems, Utilities, Community and Environment. ENERGY. GOV BUILDINGS OF THE FUTURE
- 10. Artificial intelligence/IOT What’s coming at us is even bigger than the original Internet. TIM O’REILLY, NEXT:ECONOMY It’s a transformative technology that changes not just computing but it changes all walks of life, and every industry and every business process. SATYA NADELLA, MICROSOFT
- 11. Virtual habitat TRIPS TO MARS By 2025, tens of millions of us will be spending large chunks of our lives working, playing, travelling and socialising inside virtual reality environments so immersive, interactive and realistic that they will be almost indistinguishable from the real world. MICROSOFT.COM
- 12. Machine Learning – M2M Nearly two-thirds of executives interviewed believe that intelligent machines will be used for strategy making and evaluation. ROBERT J. THOMAS MANAGING DIRECTOR – ACCENTURE STRATEGY, TALENT & ORGANIZATION
- 13. Wellness Businesses that will be successful in the future will be those who break down the barriers between people, workplaces and technologies and empower their employees to be productive and creative wherever they are. KLAUS HOLSE, VICE PRESIDENT, MICROSOFT WESTERN EUROPE Greater visibility and interaction across the organisation Brand to reflect organisational culture and values Reduced overhead, utility, churn and running costs Better connectivity and inter team collaboration across space Break down boundaries, employees can work anywhere Trust and empowerment to increase productivity and awareness Accommodating growth without incurring significant cost within existing spaces Increased utilisation of space with better choice of space to suit the task
- 14. Retail LEISURE AND ENTERTAINMENT EXPERIENCE Shopping centres are the only true destination shopping trip. ..this needs more than a handful of “anchor” clients, a cinema and a food court in order to drive traffic. MIKE WATKINS, HEAD OF RETAILER AND BUSINESS INSIGHT, NIELSEN UK
- 15. Digital cultural commentator Freelance biohacker Virtual habitat designer Space tour guide Ethical technology advocate Personal content curator Sustainable power innovator Human body designer Talent – undefinable roles of the future 65% of today's school students will be doing jobs that don't exist yet. MICROSOFT
- 16. Cities Population growth to nine billion by 2040. By 2050, between 50-75% of their population will live in cities. UNICEF City Projected population 2050 (m) Mumbai 42.40 Dhaka 36.16 Delhi 35.19 Kinshasa 35.00 Kolkata 33.04 Lagos 32.63 Tokyo 32.62 Karachi 31.70 New York 24.77 Mexico Citi 24.33
- 17. Travel – transatlantic tunnel By 2080 – “…a journey between Manchester and New York City could take just four hours, if a maximum speed of 800mph (1,287kph) was achievable.” ENTREPRENEUR ELON MUSK
- 18. The new ice age? 2100…
- 19. Gig Economy2 + CRE2 = …?2 JAMES MADDOCK Head of Global Occupier Services Cushman & Wakefield-EMEA Thank you.
Notes de l'éditeur
- The real estate industry stands as one of the last big industries that haven’t been disrupted. The chances of change in this industry is very likely. These are the reasons why: 1) Diminishing value Diminishing value has been slowly become entrenched into the real estate industry for a while and there’s simply less of a need for agents who only provide consumers with information that is readily available via Zillow.com or PEMCORealty.com. If agents are only opening doors to show homes, the consumer may not feel that this warrants their six percent commission. This is not saying that agents are not needed. They are, without a doubt. Professional and knowledgeable agents offer much value and in this changing world, the agents who are highly valuable will have a chance to shine. 2) Outdated marketing methods Many real estate agents today still think the surefire way to attract new business is by hanging a sign in the window. This method still works; but more people, especially Millennials, go to the Internet first for information. It’s possible for the average consumer to have deep real estate information before meeting a real estate agent. Companies are increasingly popping up online or in digital device applications to service these savvy consumers. 3) The real estate industry is poised for change If you look at the real estate industry today, you will see an industry that has struggled to keep up with the changes. Consumers have instant access to real estate information and have grown more comfortable with the idea of selling their own homes; further cementing consumers’ widespread embrace of technology and new ways of thinking. 4) Increased competition for the next big real estate technology There’s potentially disruptive technologies such as virtual home staging and automated agent selection out there now, but these innovations are not massively scaled to disrupt the industry yet. The entrepreneur that addresses real estate industry pain points may come up with an app and/ or website that will represent real change by making it easier and better to conduct business in the industry. Empowering the consumer has been the focus of the industry’s latest innovations. This includes providing consumers with more access to data which would allow them to make more informed decisions while diminishing the need for less-informed real estate agents. The smarter agents will embrace these technological advances and utilize them to survive; rather than continue to stay attached to their brochures and rolodexes. History is against embracing nostalgia as a business model, no matter the industry.
- 30% of urban traffic is generated by people looking for parking Without the need for drivers, cars can be managed by robots in high efficiency spaces that aren’t a blight on the urban landscape, and don’t require customer stairs, elevators and wide alleyways to allow access to individual cars. Some predict that 15 years from now, autonomous vehicles will have erased the need for up to 90 percent of our current parking spaces. Last year, Audi launched an automated parking garage for self-driving cars near Boston, “where space for vehicles would be reduced by two square meters per car, with driving lanes becoming narrower, and staircases and elevators no longer needed.” Meanwhile, in the UK, Milton Keynes is already experimenting with autonomous vehicles, and planning to convert its current car park real estate to more efficient uses. Future car parks will also be able to offer refuelling, maintenance and other car services. Considering how much of our current city space is taken up with large car parks, all of these developments could be transformative, akin to when “horseless carriages” were replaced by cars, and mews were re-appropriated into prime residential and commercial spaces. Ted Talk, Wanis Kabbaj, UPS – “If our surface grid is saturated, let’s elevate our traffic.” In China they have invented a bus that straddles two lanes of traffic. In Tel Aviv and Abu Dhabi they are talking about testing networks of suspended magnetic pods to travel in. Airbus is now seriously working on flying taxis. Building this 3D transportation network is one way we can mitigate and solve traffic jams. It is estimated that up to 30% of urban traffic is generated by drivers looking for parking. In 100 cars around you, 85 of them will have only 1 driver in them. We’ve been stuck for a long time between creating a car-centric society or extensive mass-transit systems. We need to transcend this. We need to create vehicles that combine the convenience of cars with the efficiencies of trains and buses. Imagine a smooth and fast urban train that doesn’t stop at every stop, instead it goes to the one final destination you need. When nearing your destination, the wagons of the train detach dynamically whilst moving and become express driverless buses that move on a secondary road network. When you near your final destination the section you’re sitting in detaches and self-drives you right to your doorstep. It is collective and individual all at the same time. It could be one of the shared, modular, driverless vehicles of tomorrow. Driverless cars of today are trying to cope with the unpredictability of human driving. If whole cities become driverless we would no longer need lanes, traffic lights and speed limits as they will be predictable, risk will be minimal and so they can drive faster. The flow of traffic will now be a mesh of dynamic and constantly changing self-improving algorithms that will get us where we want to be quicker and safer. In the US there are 7 billion hours lost sitting in traffic 29% of all urbanised land in the US is allocated to parking
- Africa drone examples: Surfers example They release small packages attached to parachutes without needing to land at the delivery points before returning. The technology promises to make deliveries much faster than had previously been possible by road. Zipline - the US start-up running the project - is made up of engineers who formerly worked at Space X, Google, Lockheed Martin and other tech companies. Its drones will initially be used to deliver blood, plasma, and coagulants to hospitals across rural western Rwanda, helping to cut waiting times from hours to minutes. They have an operational range of 150km (93 miles) but could, in theory, fly almost twice that distance. Agri 1 drom 6,000 sq m spraying in 10 minutes
- 60% of CRE industry in likely to be automated PurpleBricks describes itself as a hybrid agency. It employs "local experts" across the UK who work from home on an online platform to help customers sell their homes. They value the houses, take photos, draw up floorplans and create an advert which is then posted on Rightmove and Zoopla. The customer has an online profile on which they can regularly check the progress of their sale; they can accept viewings digitally and request feedback from visits. The fee is typically about £849, or £1,199 for those selling in and around London. The average High Street estate agent fee is 1.5% - so about £3,251 for a property priced at the national average of £216,750. LJ Hooker
- In a world of consumer demand for customisation retail space will continue to be required to act as an enabler to produce customised products on site.
- Going wireless could completely change the way workspace is designed removing the need for proximity to charge. Ubeam aims to let you charge several devices wirelessly, using ultrasonic waves. The system is still in the prototype phase, though it does have a working model. Michael Arrington called the device "the closest thing to magic I've seen in a long time." And the company has picked up $750,000 in seed funding.
- Cisco VNI reported that mobile data traffic will grow sevenfold from 2016 to 2021 globally, a compound annual growth rate of 47 percent. Mastercard and Boingo Wireless are teaming up to deliver unlimited access to more than one million premium Boingo Wi-Fi hotspots around the world for select HSBC Mastercard cardholders in Argentina, China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, United Arab Emirates and the U.K. “We know that consumers really want this – they value experiences over things and travel is huge component of that experience that we want to enrich for them. We see Boingo and the access to unlimited Wi-Fi through hotspots as an essential travel companion for those consumers,” Marti Beller, SVP of loyalty solutions global products and platforms for Mastercard, told PYMNTS prior to the announcement of the new global partnership. Research shows that travel and being connected while traveling are both increasing priorities to people around the world. Busy, connected travelers value complimentary Wi-Fi both in hotels and while flying, which is why Mastercard is creating benefits and programs geared towards supporting the experiences they desire. Eligible Mastercard cardholders will have the ability to register their card just once, Beller explained, in order to access available free Wi-Fi at Boingo hotspots automatically without having to login time and time again. The access to Boingo can be registered to up to four devices per eligible cardholder account. When it comes to affluent cardholders, Mastercard is striving to develop a foundation for digitally rich experiences that bring value to the consumer no matter where they are, and especially at a moment in their lives via travel that will be meaningful to them, Beller noted. “We are trying to eliminate hurdles and barriers for that affluent cardholder throughout their everyday life and specifically when they are experiencing something as rich as travel,” she added. According to research from Resonance Consultancy, complimentary Wi-Fi is the top “desirable amenity” for more than half of the wealthiest travelers while on the ground. Once those travelers are flying, 63 percent access entertainment services on their own device, data from SITA’s 11th annual Passenger IT Trends Survey revealed. It’s expected that this trend will only increase.
- Humans have to work for four to six weeks to put a house together, and have to take weekends and holidays. Whereas the robot bricklayer works by laying 1000 bricks an hour, letting it put up 150 houses a year. It takes a design of the house and then works out where all of the bricks need to go, before cutting and laying each of them. It has a 28-foot arm, which is used to set and mortar the brick, and means that it doesn’t need to move during the laying.
- Sound being used in plant rooms as a sensor With big data implosions abounding, people will now look for human insight, beyond the bits and bytes, that is based on real human understanding, empathy and analysis.” Dr Karl Freey article The prospect of artificial intelligence and advanced robotics taking on tasks once reserved for humans is no longer on the distant horizon. The future is here. Instead of trying to estimate the jobs that could be automated in a wholesale way, it is useful to look at this issue through the lens of activities. Recent McKinsey research finds that up to 45 percent of the tasks performed by US workers can be automated by currently existing technologies. About 60 percent of occupations could have 30 percent or more of their activities automated. This doesn’t mean it’s time to hit the panic button. Many jobs and business processes will be redefined and how technology complements work will evolve rapidly. Our institutions and policies need to be ready to help individuals acquire new skills and navigate a period of dislocation and transition. Apple | Siri Launched in 2011, the voice-activated assistant handles 2bn interactions with users a week Microsoft | Cortana Installed in Windows 10, it is used by 105m people a day and now appears in app stores Consumer-facing companies are at a loss. The middle class, long the bread and butter of consumer companies of all kinds, is shrinking as a percentage of the population in mature markets. And in emerging markets, where many consumer companies have been laying their bets for the future, growth has started to slow. To thrive again, companies need nuanced ways of defining a segment of consumers to focus on. Our research indicates that five questions can help point the way: Do they have access to the internet? Do they have a significant amount of discretionary income? Are they willing to spend a lot of their discretionary income? Do they prefer premium goods and services when they can afford them? Do they seek to be on the cutting edge of consumer trends? Consumers who answer yes to all five questions are what we call “connected spenders.” When we look more closely, we see that almost all of them are working-age, and over 30% are 25–34 years old. They are highly urban; nearly 80% of connected spenders live in a city. In emerging markets, that number is even higher, at 90%. While connected spenders are more affluent than the average, not all are high income. And, in turn, not all affluent consumers are connected spenders. Globally, connected spenders make up about one-third of low-income populations and two-thirds of high-income ones. Today connected spenders count for about 19% of the global population, and that is projected to grow to 37% by 2025. Cumulatively, over this decade they will spend $260 trillion — 46% of the world’s consumer spending. In markets such as the U.S., where internet access is just shy of 90%, only 36% of the population are currently connected spenders, a number that will grow to over 50% by 2025. Device makers are hopeful that embedding this kind of intelligence in their hardware can make consumers understand the value of the internet of things — the tech world’s dream of connecting billions of inanimate objects to the internet and making them smart. The second aspect of the coming AI revolution involves analysing data collected by smart devices to make them more useful. Until now, many products have gathered knowledge without using it. The big development in AI research has been “deep learning”, which can make sense of this real-world data. The real difficulty in this process of fully realising [the internet of things] has been identifying . . . what is really useful to consumers Accenture’s (ACN) Dynamic Digital Consumers Survey revealed that if a global digital giant such as Google or Amazon launched an offer comparable to their mobile operator, 44 percent of respondents would leave their provider, forming a gloomy outlook for Communications Service Providers (CSPs).
- M2M has traditionally covered the monitoring and control of larger-scale industrial equipment, which enables a wide range of physical entities – from production widgets to power stations – to be monitored. As devices become smaller, cheaper and more powerful, businesses are able to cover a much broader range of physical objects. As well as increasing the number of scenarios that can be monitored and controlled individually, this offers the opportunity to extend the reach of existing business systems and management capabilities. For example buildings management, customer relationship management (CRM) and business process management (BPM) tools can access previously unavailable pools of event-driven data.
- There are 46 sqft per capita of retail space in the US versus only 9 sqft in Europe. The 10 Future Trends: 1. Fewer, but more impactful, stores 2. Working together to stand apart 3. Race for the most convenient store experience 4. Personalisation to reach new heights 5. The end of points-based loyalty cards 6. Power of the peer 7. Cracking the final mile 8. Death of pure-play 9. Click & collect 10. From one-click to no-click
- A future without employees?
- The transatlantic train idea was one of the ideas were proposed in a competition run by Manchester-based think tank, IPPR North The train would run between the northern English city and New York City The train would be contained within a tube underneath the Atlantic Ocean, with a service running in a perfect vacuum, like Elon Musk's idea A northern English version of his 'Hyperloop' has been proposed to connect airports and cities in the north of the country. Roads made from solar panels are among other technologies suggested.
- So what do we conclude? Separation and exclusion have regrettably become vogue topics in the political asylum. Yet there is an area of our world where frontiers are being slowly, naturally and beautifully eroded: space. Where once we donned a visor in order to consider space in regard to its category – domestic, retail, leisure, sports, office, industrial – and worked through a set of assumptions based on established (and invariably unchallenged) notions of purpose, function, components, aesthetics, occupants and visitors, we are gradually removing the boundaries. While this is partly driven by the ease with which we now transition between spaces and unconsciously blur the boundaries ourselves – working in cafes and hotel lobbies, popping-up retail in offices, even the [dreaded] game of table tennis in the office – we’re also seeing both a growth in mixed-use developments particularly in areas of regeneration favoured by the tech industry where live/work has become an integral feature, and a willingness on the part of the providers of a particular genre of space to cater for other uses. For workspace design this means being open to influences from other sectors, but avoiding the temptation to try and jump ship entirely in the hope of adding credibility. A rebranding of “Work” to look for all the world like the place you go when you’ve finished for the day. T he bad name that soulless workplaces of the last few decades gained through their dream-free serried rows of white desks disappearing into has led to something of a desire to distance ourselves from the tag. If it’s intended to be a workspace, it’s not something to shy away from or be embarrassed about, rather, it’s about focusing on work as the primary function it must fulfil – it has to do what it’s supposed to do, simply, effectively, intuitively – and space as the borderless domain in which these influences and perspectives will play out, that its occupants and inhabitants will in turn by their presence and activity transform into place. If it’s an office, it has to satisfy the function of an office, but it can serve fantastic food and coffee, it can have the comforts and informality of home, it can offer the means to escape from the laptop for a while, it can offer the sense of association of a club, it can allow you to buy some food (and/or wine) for when you get home, it can enable you to have a kip when needed. Can, and should: more importantly, can and will. This trend will continue, quietly, naturally, beneficially. We will nudge it along with our developments, schemes, projects and ideas, because it makes perfect sense. Refreshingly it’s one to which no-one can lay claim, and for which no-one needs to pronounce anything as “over”. Space may no longer be the final frontier.