Presentation given on November 10 to the Clean Fuels Ohio, Driving Ohio Forward forum at CSU and given November 11 to John Carroll University First Year Symposium on Climate Change

1. Responding to climate change in
Northeast Ohio
November 2009
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2. Who we are
• Sustainability center at the Cleveland
Museum of Natural History
• Connecting cities and nature
• Climate change planning for Northeast Ohio
• Services to
community – website,
speakers, project
sponsorship, technical
assistance
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3. www.gcbl.org
Online home for sustainability
in Northeast Ohio
• Event calendar
• Sustainability
news and project
updates
• Climate change
plans and
actions
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4. Climate change 101
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5. What we know
• The Earth is warming and the climate is changing
• Scientific consensus that climate change is caused by
unprecedented, human generated emissions of
greenhouse gases, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels
and deforestation
• Melting glaciers and ice caps, acidifying oceans, more
extreme weather events (droughts, floods, heat waves),
changing growing seasons, rising sea levels, more
widespread disease
Source: IPCC AR4 Synthesis Report 5

6. Projected local impacts
• Continued changes in growing
seasons
• Lower lake levels due to increased
evaporation results from the
decrease in lake ice
• More frequent, severe, and longer
heat waves
• Disease carrying insects will survive
and thrive easier in a warmer climate
(ticks and mosquitoes)
• Wetter winters and springs, with
more heavy downpours
• Longer periods between rainfalls
Sources: U.S. Global Change Research Program and Union of Concerned Scientists 6

7. GCBL climate change activities
• Regional CO2
emissions inventory
• Detailed transition plans
– Energy Generation
– Transportation
– Buildings
• Toolkits for taking action
– Individuals
– Schools
– Business
– Communities
Resource link 7

8. CMNH climate change research
• Ohio long-term butterfly monitoring project
– CMNH Invertebrate Zoology, ODNR and Ohio
Lepidopterists
• Ohio bird migration tracking project
• Ohio natural areas preservation and monitoring
– 4600+ acres
Resource link 8

9. Carbon budgeting
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10. Global perspective
Metric tons CO2e per person
in 2005
Qatar
(55.5)
Kuwait Texas
(30.7) Ohio
(29.5) U.S.
(24.7)
(19.9)
4)
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0)
az .5)
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Ca
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Source: CAIT (WRI) 10

11. A local perspective
Average Clevelander 2030 TOTAL
2009 TOTAL 2050
14.5 MT CO2 TOTAL
29 MT CO2 (50% reduction)
2.9 MT CO2
(90% reduction)
Housing
12 MT CO2
Transport
8 MT CO2
Food Goods
3 MT CO2 Services
3 MT CO2 3 MT CO2
Source: Cleveland Carbon Fund 11

12. Roundtrip flight from CLE to...
Carbon budgeting Los Angeles
Sydney London
Mad meat New York City
eater
Hong
Avg. American
Kong
Avg. energy use in a...
2030 TARGET
Vegan Vegetarian
Resource link
2050
TARGET Large home
(2,500-4,000 SF)
15,000 miles in a...
Hummer
Prius Medium
Explorer home
Civic Outback (1,500-2,499 SF)
Apartment
(<1,000 SF)
Resource link for flight, home, auto 12

13. CO2 reductions in Northeast Ohio
80
7-County CO2 emissions
70
60
Million Tons CO2
50 Electricity
Energy
Electricity generation transition
plan
40
30
Buildings
Buildings Buildings transition plan
20
Transportation
transition plan
10 Transportation Transportation
0 , ,
2005 2050 2050
Baseline Business as usual 90% reduction
Business as usual (BAU) assumptions: flat population growth rate, no growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), does not include CAFE standards,
.8% y-o-y growth in electricity demand
Resource link 13

14. Transportation Sector Transition
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15. Transportation Sector
How do we accomplish reductions?
2030 2050
Potential Potential
Tons CO2 Tons CO2
Transportation Strategies CO2 CO2
Reduced Reduced
Reductions Reductions
Reduce number of vehicles and need
1 to travel
10% 1,793,627 25% 4,484,068
2 Increase efficiency of vehicles 30% 5,380,882 50% 8,968,137
3 Reduce CO2 intensity of fuel sources 5% 896,814 10% 1,793,627
Align costs of externalities with end
4 users
5% 896,814 5% 896,814
Total CO2 Reductions 50% -8,968,137 90% -16,142,646
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16. Buildings Scenario 4.1
1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products Use Planning
2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions
3. Educate and 4. Efficient Land
4.1 Zoning and Planning to Support Grid Development
4.1.2 LEED 4.2 Energy Star
4.3
• “Green” suburban
home uses more
energy on average
than non-green
urban home
• Significantly less
transportation
energy required for
urban homes on
average
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17. Buildings Scenario 4.1
1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products Use Planning
2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions
3. Educate and 4. Efficient Land
4.1 Zoning and Planning to Support Grid Development
4.1.2 LEED 4.2 Energy Star
4.3
Developed Land • Population 1.4 million and
Cuyahoga County (1948) rising
• Grid development pattern
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18. Buildings Scenario 4.1
1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products Use Planning
2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions
3. Educate and 4. Efficient Land
4.1 Zoning and Planning to Support Grid Development
4.1.2 LEED 4.2 Energy Star
4.3
Developed Land • Population 1.4 million and
Cuyahoga County (2002) declining
• Disconnected
development pattern
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19. Transportation Scenario 1.2
1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu
3. Reduce CO2
4. Extern
1.1 Land Use1.2 Align Long Range Transportation Plans 1.3 Decrease 1.4
• NOACA and AMATS MPOs
have adopted climate change
language in LRTPs
• ODOT 21st Century Priorities
Task Force
• Plans are largely done,
challenge exists to set, track
and implement meaningful
metrics (VMT reduction, CO2
reduction, mode splits)
• Complete Streets policies one
“easy” solution to start with
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20. Transportation Scenario 1.3
1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu
3. Reduce CO2
4. Extern
1.1 Land Use 1.2 Align Long Range Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30%
1.3 1.4
U.S. Population and Vehicle Miles
Traveled, 1982-2006 • VMT rate of growth is
slowing, and
declined in 2008
• Many regional and
state plans use VMT
growth rate of 1 to
2% per year in
planning vs. a flat or
declining VMT
Source: Bailey, et.al, “The Broader Connection
between Public Transportation, Energy Conservation
and Greenhouse Gas Reduction,” February 2008,
www.apta.com/research/info/online/documents/land_
use.pdf
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21. Transportation Scenario 1.4
1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu
3. Reduce CO2
4. Extern
1.1 Land1.3 Decrease PerAccess,VMT by 30%and Efficiency of Public Transit
1.2 Align1.4 Improve Capita Availability
Use Long Range 1.5
• Transit is more
efficient mode in most
situations
• Won’t work for
everyone, but small
percentage increases in
ridership and trip share
have significant
impacts on CO2
emissions, congestion
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22. Transportation Scenario 1.6
1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu
3. Reduce CO2
4. Extern
1.1 Land1.3 Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30% to Bikes, Walking, Transit
1.2 Align1.4 1.5 1.6 Increase Mode Shift
Use Long Range
• Single Occupancy
Vehicle travel is
increasing
• Public transit and
carpooling %
decreasing
• What does 2010, 2020
mode split look like?
• What do we
need/want it to be?
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23. Transportation Scenario 1.6
1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu
3. Reduce CO2
4. Extern
1.1 Land1.3 Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30% to Bikes, Walking, Transit
1.2 Align1.4 1.5 1.6 Increase Mode Shift
Use Long Range
Distance to Work
6%
No fixed place of w ork
2%
8%
City of Cleveland
• Travel time and
Works at home
50 miles or more 0%
3%
Cleveland PMSA distance play key roles
1%
30 to 49 miles 3%
6%
in shifting modes
20 to 29 miles 8%
10%
10 to 19 miles 30%
29%
5 to 9 miles 23%
20%
24%
Time to Work
1 to 4 miles 20%
3% No fixed place of work 8%
Less than 1 mile 3%
Works at home 3%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 30 minutes or more
1 hour 35% 0%
1 hour to 1 hour and 29 minutes 2%
45 to 59 minutes 5%
30 to 44 minutes 15%
15 to 29 minutes 37%
Less than 15 minutes 29%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
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24. Transportation Scenario 1.6
1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu
3. Reduce CO2
4. Extern
1.1 Land1.3 Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30% to Bikes, Walking, Transit
1.2 Align1.4 1.5 1.6 Increase Mode Shift
Use Long Range
Cleveland PMSA Principal Means of Transportation to Work
15%
Works at home 6% 2050
3% 2030
0% 2004
Other means 0%
0%
8%
Walks only 5%
2%
8%
Bicycle or motorcycle 5%
0%
0%
Taxicab 0%
0%
15%
Mass Transportation 10%
4%
18%
Carpool 14%
7%
36%
Drives self 60%
84%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
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25. Transportation Scenario 2.1
1. Reduce2. Increase Efficiency of Remaining Vehicles
Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 3. Reduce CO2 Inten
2.1 National Efficiency Standards 2.2 Smaller Vehicles 2.3 Hybrids
2005 Units MPG Utlization Emissions Factors
Gasonline Gasoline CO2 Short Tons
Avg. ANNUAL VMT
Vehicle Mix % # vehicles Consumption Emissions Factor Lbs/CO2 CO2
MPG Total
(Gallons) (lbs/CO2 per Gal) (1=2000lbs)
Full Size Auto 7.5% 201,726 17 2,200,292,362 129,428,962 20.71 2,680,344,384 1,340,172
Mid Size Auto 17.0% 457,246 20 4,987,329,354 249,366,468 20.71 5,164,130,180 2,582,065
Sub Compact/Compact 27.1% 728,904 25 7,950,389,735 318,015,589 20.71 6,585,784,841 3,292,892
Hybrid cars 0.5% 13,448 40 146,686,157 3,667,154 20.71 75,943,091 37,972
Biodiesel cars 0.5% 13,448 40 146,686,157 3,667,154 20.71 75,943,091 37,972
Plug-in hybrid 0.5% 13,448 52 146,686,157 2,820,888 20.71 58,417,762 29,209
Electric cars 0.0% 0 60 0 0 20.71 0 0
Light-duty trucks / SUV 46.5% 1,250,702 14 13,641,812,645 974,415,189 20.71 20,179,164,148 10,089,582
Motorcycle (2WV) 0.4% 10,759 25 117,348,926 4,693,957 20.71 97,211,850 48,606
TOTAL 100.0% 2,689,682 29,337,231,495 1,686,075,361 20.71 34,916,939,347 17,458,470
2030 Units MPG Utlization Emissions Factors
Gasonline Gasoline CO2 Short Tons
Avg. ANNUAL VMT
Vehicle Mix % # vehicles Consumption Emissions Factor Lbs/CO2 CO2
MPG Total
(Gallons) (lbs/CO2 per Gal) (1=2000lbs)
Full Size Auto 7.5% 201,726 25 2,200,292,362 88,011,694 20.71 1,822,634,181 911,317
Mid Size Auto 17.0% 457,246 28 4,987,329,354 178,118,906 20.71 3,688,664,414 1,844,332
Sub Compact/Compact 27.1% 728,904 35 7,950,389,735 227,153,992 20.71 4,704,132,029 2,352,066
Hybrid cars 0.5% 13,448 45 146,686,157 3,259,692 20.71 67,504,970 33,752
Biodiesel cars 0.5% 13,448 45 146,686,157 3,259,692 20.71 67,504,970 33,752
Plug-in hybrid 0.5% 13,448 52 146,686,157 2,820,888 20.71 58,417,762 29,209
Electric cars 0.0% 0 60 0 0 20.71 0 0
Light-duty trucks / SUV 46.5% 1,250,702 23 13,641,812,645 593,122,289 20.71 12,282,969,481 6,141,485
Motorcycle (2WV) 0.4% 10,759 25 117,348,926 4,693,957 20.71 97,211,850 48,606
TOTAL 100.0% 2,689,682 29,337,231,495 1,100,441,111 20.71 22,789,039,658 11,394,520
34.73%
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26. What you can do
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27. What you can do at home
First steps to a low-carbon lifestyle…
• Calculate your carbon
footprint – set priorities
• Change light bulbs
• Drive less
• Reduce, reuse, recycle (and
compost)
• Use less water
• Eat lower on the food chain
• Adjust your thermostat
Resource link 27

28. What you can do in your community
• Encourage mayor to sign Mayors Climate
Protection Agreement
• Support
– Renewable energy use
and energy efficiency
– Walkable neighborhoods
– Transportation choices –
transit, bikes
– “First steps” – recycling,
composting
Resource link 28

29. Support complete streets
• What do we want the
Innerbelt Bridge to
look like?
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30. Cleveland Carbon Fund
• Calculate your impact
• Learn how to reduce
• Donate to local projects
http://www.ClevelandCarbonFund.org
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31. Benefits of a clean energy future
• Save money and become more efficient
• Innovate and become more competitive
• Create thousands of jobs in Ohio
• Improve health
• Rebuild our cities
• Protect natural areas and wildlife
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32. GreenCityBlueLake Institute
The Cleveland Museum of Natural History
http://www.gcbl.org/climatechange
Brad Chase
bchase@cmnh.org
© 2009 Cleveland Museum of Natural History
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