Spatial vulnerbility to Climate Change in Trentino. The plan for a survey.

1. Task 5 – Interplay between science, society and policy
Spatial vulnerability assessment
Valutazione della vulnerabilità
dei Comuni Trentini ai Cambiamenti Climatici
CLIMatic change impacts on future Availability of WAter REsources and
hydro-geological risks (CLIMAWARE)
DICAM - Dipartimento di Ingegneria civile, ambientale e meccanica
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PhD Rocco Scolozzi, Prof. Davide Geneletti

2. Spatial vulnerability assessment
1. Cluster analysis for social survey
2. IPCC framework and definitions
3. Examples at EU level
4. Sensitivity analysis for municipalities of Trento Province
5. Adaptation capacity analysis
6. Sector assessment (to be further developed)

3. Cluster analysis for social survey
• Objective: to support stratification of Trento Province sample
• Max differentiation among the clusters (max 3-5 groups)
• Feasible with data at municipal level
➔Candidate climate variables:
• variables among the most recognizable and distinguishable by the people
(without instrumentation)
• interesting for their variability in recent periods (1961-1990 vs. 198-2010).
Collaboration with Emanuela Bozzini, Dep. of Sociology and Social Research

4. Cluster analysis for social survey
• Modeling and mapping
• Modelling (for elevation) and interpolation of point climate data for
periods 1961-1990 and 198-2010 (by Lavinia Laiti & Co.)
• Extraction by Land Use and municipality layer
• Integration in table data of municipalities

5. Cluster analysis for social survey
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pr_inv_med_c
Cluster
Days C°>25
(in aree residenziali)
average monthly
precipitation
(Dec-Jan-Feb)
Population 2001 Municipalities
1 62,1 154,3 288’824 80
2 36,7 125,0 78’541 72
3 51,1 185,0 109’652 71

6. IPCC framework and definitions

7. IPCC framework and definitions
• Exposure: The nature and degree to which a system is exposed
to significant climatic variations.
• Sensitivity: The degree to which a system is affected, either
adversely or beneficially, by climate related stimuli.
• Adaptive capacity: the ability of a natural or human system to
adjust to potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities,
or to cope with the consequences.
• Vulnerability: The degree to which a system is susceptible to,
or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change.
Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate
of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity,
and its adaptive capacity.
http://climatechange.lta.org

8. Prepare for Vulnerability
Planning for vulnerability to climate change generally involves three steps:
1. Determine which resources are vulnerable to changing conditions. By
identifying the most vulnerable resources, we are able to prioritize our
conservation actions. The vulnerability of a resource is determined by
exposure, sensitivity, and the ability to adapt to the impacts of climate
change.
2. Determine why those resources are vulnerable. It is not enough to know
that a particular resource is vulnerable. We also must know why the
resource is vulnerable. This allows us to choose conservation actions that are
most likely to reduce the threats posed by climate change.
3. Use this information to guide actions that will reduce vulnerability, and
develop strategic adaptation strategies, foster collaboration at different
scales

9. Example: ESPON Climate
ESPON 2013 Programme, partly financed
by the European Regional Development Fund
Climate Change and Territorial Effects on
Regions and Local Economies
www.espon.eu
ESPON - European Observation Network for Territorial Development and Cohesion

10. Change of annual mean temperature
Decrease of number of frost days
Change of number of summer days
Change of mean winter precipitation
Change of mean summer precipitation
Change of number of heavy rainfall days
Change of annual mean evaporation
Change of number of days with snow cover
Change in occurrence of river flooding
Change of mean sea level
Exposure
Example: ESPON Climate
(changes 1961-1990 and 2071-2100*)
*Using the IPCC climate scenario A1B

11. Examples from ESPON
Physical sensitivity
• Settlements sensitive to flash floods
• Roads and railways sensitive to flash floods
• Settlements sensitive to river flooding
• Roads and railways sensitive to river flooding
• Airports and harbours sensitive to river flooding
• Settlements sensitive to coastal flooding
• Roads and railways sensitive to coastal flooding
• Airports and harbours sensitive to coastal flooding

12. Examples from ESPON
Environmental sensitivity
• Forests sensitive to forest fires
• Protected natural areas
• Areas prone to soil erosion
• Soil organic carbon

13. Examples from ESPON
Economic sensitivity
Agriculture sensitive to water availability
Forestry sensitive to water availability
Summer tourism sensitive to summer temperatures
Winter tourism sensitive to snow cover changes
Energy demand sensitive to summer heat
Energy demand sensitive to winter frost
Energy supply sensitive to changing river water levels

14. Examples from ESPON
Social sensitivity
Population sensitive to summer heat
Population sensitive to coastal flooding
Population sensitive to river flooding
Population sensitive to flash floods

15. Examples from ESPON
Cultural sensitivity
UNESCO Cultural World Heritage Sites sensitive to river
flooding
UNESCO Cultural World Heritage Sites sensitive to coastal
flooding
Museums sensitive to river flooding
Museums sensitive to sea level rise

16. Task 5 – Interplay between science, society and policy

17. Climate stimuli Target Indicator
Unit of
meaure
Temperature
stress
Population
Population over 65 year old N°
Days>25C° N°
Water stress
Tourism Tourism services personnel N°
Agriculture Personnel N°
Population Total precipitation m3
Sensitivity to climate change at municipal level

18. Climate stimuli Target Indicator
Unità di
misura
Water stress
1. Capacità di assorbire eventuali
occupati nel turismo in crisi
per CC
Incidenza addetti ai servizi alberghieri e
complementari su totale addetti (eccetto
agricoltura)
%
1. Capacità di assorbire eventuali
occupati in agricoltura in crisi
per CC
Incidenza degli occupati in agricoltura %
Temperature stress
1. Capacità di gestire
popolazione più esposta
Incidenza della popolazione di 65 anni e oltre %
Trust (istitutions)
1. Propensione a seguire
indicazioni di emergenza
Questionario: In caso di ordine di evacuazione della
Protezione Civile sarebbe disponibile a lasciare la sua abitazione
per un determinato tempo? (risposta: scala 1- 5, es. no -
certamente)
Social network
1. Capacità di trovare una
sistemazione-rifugio
Questionario: In caso di emergenza sarebbe in grado di
trovare una sistemazione temporanea (per alcuni giorni) per lei e
la sua famiglia in 24 ore, ad esempio presso parenti o amici?
Risposta: da 1-con estrema difficoltà a 5-senza problemi
Adaptive capacity at municipal level

19. Task 5 – Interplay between science, society and policy

20. Climate stimuli Target Indicator Definition u.m.
Esposizione stress
idrico
Agriculture
GAP1 domanda/offerta
Differenza tra bisogno totale e disponibilità
lorda attuale
m3
GAP1b domanda/offerta
Differenza tra bisogno totale scenario e
disponibilità lorda scenario
m3
Tourism
GAP2
domanda/offerta
Differenza tra bisogno totale e disponibilità
lorda attuale
m3
GAP2b
domanda/offerta
Differenza tra bisogno totale scenario e
disponibilità lorda scenario
m3
Esposizione rischio
alluvione
Industry
ESP1
Aree produttive infrastrutture
Aree attuali attualmente a rischio ha
ESP1b
Aree produttive infrastrutture
Aree scenario a rischio scenario (in
mancanza, rischio attuale)
ha
Population
ESP2
Aree residenziali
Aree attuali attualmente a rischio ha
ESP2b
Aree residenziali
Aree scenario a rischio scenario (in
mancanza, rischio attuale)
ha
Exposure at municipal level