WITH most of 2012’s adverse supply developments now factored into prices, world grain and feed markets are now starting to fix their sights more firmly on 2013/14 crop prospects. A recovery is certainly needed in 2013 cereal output. Latest estimates show world production this season is dropping by about 75m tonnes or just over 4% but consumption by only 37m tonnes or 2%, the balance coming off stocks.
2. GLOBAL
GRAIN & FEED MARKETS
Every issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviews
world trading conditions which are impacting the full range of
commodities used in food and feed production. His observations
will influence your decision-making.
Chicago soft red Will 2013 be a year of crop recovery?
W
winter wheat prices ITH most of 2012’s adverse supply the remarkable recovery in US and other world
developments now factored stock markets instead.
have dropped by into prices, world grain and That said, investors haven’t done badly out of
feed markets are now starting wheat in 2012 which saw this grain close with a
about 8% since to fix their sights more firmly on 2013/14 crop near 20% year-on-year gain in Chicago, albeit after
prospects. A recovery is certainly needed in trading as much as 45% up earlier in the year. EU
our last review 2013 cereal output. Latest estimates show world milling wheat markets meanwhile closed the year
production this season is dropping by about 75m about Δ50/tonne up (+25%), led by London feed-
after losing as tonnes or just over 4% but consumption by only wheat plus £53 or 35%. Interestingly, the wheat
37m tonnes or 2%, the balance coming off stocks. markets across the Atlantic diverge completely on
much as 12% While there have recently been some jitters their forward views. EU 2013 crop wheat futures
about South American maize and soyabean crop are cheaper than current old crop months whereas
at one stage. In weather, lower Argentine wheat quality, some the US futures outlook shows higher distant prices.
winterkill threats in the former Soviet countries In contrast, forward US futures continue to point
Europe, soft milling and a combination of drought and frost threats to significantly cheaper prices for maize, for which
to a poorly rated US winter wheat crop, price current months have come out of 2012 with a gain
wheat futures rallies on the bellwether Chicago futures markets of only 8% - quite a shift from last August when
for both grains have largely struggled to hold up. prices were up by over 30%.
have dropped by That, in turn, has encouraged European cereal Wheat and maize prices have also come
markets, to a large extent, to steer clear of further under pressure from global export competition.
about 8-9% while steep price increases too. In fact, if anything, the Despite this year’s smaller Russian, Ukrainian and
global grain and feed markets have maintained Kazakh crops, the Black Sea wheat exporters gave
in export markets, gradual downward bias since our last review, the their rivals a good run for their money with an
major grains recently trading at their cheapest aggressive early season export campaign – as did
US quality hard since last July. the Argentines too from their own smaller wheat
Partly this trend has reflected less interest from crop. Even the EU, with a significantly smaller 2012
spring wheats are speculative and other ‘outside’ money in the trend- wheat harvest, has been running a much more
setting US futures markets. Even the index funds active wheat export campaign so far this season,
down by about 9% or institutional investors, who have tended to stick clocking up a 35% year-on-year gain recently. That
with cereals through thick and thin in the hope of may lead to uncomfortably tight supplies here
too. The smallest price rises have cashed in a large chunk of their before the season closes in June but it has all helped
wheat chips in recent weeks, preferring to ride keep exports from the main supplier, the USA, well
declines have been
seen in US hard red
winter wheats amid
caution over the
poor condition of
the coming crop.
44 | January - february 2013 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
3.
4. FEATURE
COMMODITIES means longer uptime, lower operating costs,
less expenses on maintenance and spares,
and half the energy usage. This makes the
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Lastly, the Bargolink operates at lower noise
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cies than pneumatic systems whose loud
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where the past two months have seen more to win all the notable business among to the once dominant global maize supplier
unprecedented competition in terms of the large Asian feed importing countries (with which as recently as three or four years ago
More InforMatIon:
sales volume and pricing from record South the exception of China, discussed under our exported twice as much as its Latin American
American crops. Some of this is old crop coarse grain section below). . Bühler GmbH
rivals.
business, some pre-selling of crops harvested Latest estimates from the USDA suggest Grain Logistics, CH-9240, Uzwil, Switzerland
US sales and thus world maize prices, are
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victam feed 1
January - february 2013 | 17
January - february 201315:37:04
21/02/12 | 45
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6. peak in the summer months. And, as noted in
our last review, the forward futures markets
suggest soya will be cheaper next autumn
– if all the scheduled crop increases come
through. So far, things are looking promising
for South American supply to reach or even
exceed targets. Crops there did go in late
because of heavy rains but have avoided the
withering droughts that decimated last year’s
output in many areas and some is already
being harvested in the early-planted areas
of Northern Brazil. The US is meanwhile
expected to bump up soya acreage again this
also beg the question of where all the extra Feed use of grain has been holding up better spring. However, markets need to see that
production will go if the US does get the in the US than in Europe and the former Soviet crop up and running under normal weather
record crop farmers there are expected to countries and has recently been revised up conditions before selling into it. There are also
plant this spring. The answer is that much by the USDA - which also cut US stocks some uncertainties over other oilseed supplies
of it will go to re-stocking, principally in the accordingly, especially for maize. However, the after last year’s disappointing rapeseed and
USA itseld. If that does happen, the discounts initial bullish impact of this news proved short- sunflowerseed crops in Canada, Europe and
currently offered on new crop (latter 2013) US lived as the Department also raised (rather the former Soviet countries. Some revival is
maize futures will have to get much bigger – a than lowered, as the market expected) its needed in these sectors too – especially in
development that would help contain wheat final estimate of the US maize crop as well as crops from Europe east and west, to help
prices too by reducing feed demand for fine increasing Latin American and other forecasts, keep protein costs down.
grains. resulting in a slightly larger global maize crop Overall, the picture at this juncture is one of
Europe also needs to grow a bigger maize for 2012/13 than expected late last year. supplies improving and, with a few less global
crop this summer after last year’s crashed by On the negative side, the forecast for world weather problems in coming months, perhaps
11.5m tonnes to a multi-year low of under 55m maize consumption jumped too, largely due to some further decline in costs of the main grain
– about 9m under projected EU consumption the US adding 7.6m tonnes of usage for the full and feed raw materials.
needs. Europe’s consequent huge import need 2012/13 season (which ends August 31). That
– at least 8m tonnes – is one oif the few bright
spots for global exporters in a season when
means US and world stocks will finish 2012/13
at very low levels in terms of consumption
Main commodity
world maize imports are seen tumbling from needs – about seven weeks of global supply devbelopments since our last
103m to 97m tonnes.
Maize is also coming under some restraint
compared with almost double that for wheat
(and half of that tied up ‘off-market’ in China). review
from a weaker trend in the US corn ethanol So, regardless of those extra Latin American
market, home for 40% of its crop (and, of and Ukrainian supplies, a big US maize crop
Wheat prices down
course, a large chunk of EU cereal production rebound is essential this summer to establish Chicago soft red winter wheat prices have
too). Although US ethanol output is just about a more comfortable stock cushion against dropped by about 8% since our last review
matching USDA targets, production margins possible crop problems in the subsequent after losing as much as 12% at one stage.
recently have been poor, often negative, and year.. In Europe, soft milling wheat futures have
dropped by about 8-9% while in export
markets, US quality hard spring wheats are
down by about 9% too. The smallest declines
have been seen in US hard red winter wheats
amid caution over the poor condition of the
coming crop.
The firmest sector of the wheat market
has been in former Soviet countries where
this season’s smaller crops have been sold
into export markets at an aggressive pace
earlier in the season to capture the high
world prices ruling then. Russia is now paying
the price with record feedgrain costs and
there has been talk of it needing to back-
fill with imports, possibly from Europe – a
development that could hoist prices here too,
if it comes about. Russia is already taking some
are believed to have already idled about 20% of In the protein sector, two opposing forces grain from neighbouring Kazakhstan, though,
US capacity. The root cause is the still relatively have continued to dominate the markets – and along with a programme of intervention
high price of maize. In the boom years of the record Chinese demand, centred on dwindling stock releases this may be enough to cool its
last decade, for example, when US capacity was US soya supplies, versus expected record large internal market and avoid raiding the broader
rising regularly by as much as 20-30% a year – Latin American soyabean crops. world market. In theory, it could buy US soft
and before the ‘blend wall’ or renewable fuel Like the grains, soya prices also failed to hold red winter wheat if it wanted to, cheaper than
mandate was approached – US maize was only all their stellar 2012 price gains, finishing the at any time since June.
$3.50 a bushel, half its current cost. year with an 18.4% increase against a 49.7% Questions have been raised about the
46 | January - february 2013 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
7.
8. FIAAP:ad 5/2/13 10:37 Page 1
COMMODITIES
FEATURE FEATURE
protected, and the aleurone ment cells protective systems intended for
the ductwork layer and and therefore reducing the envi-
well as all improves the energy value of the feed.
the connected use in potentially explosive atmospheres on
ronmental impact.
ipment are at risk. This the European market. However, it has
combination extent topathogenic bacteria in willbecome apparent than expected crop. This is put this down to cautionary stock-building of
Reducing which world wheat output
with explo- By investing in explosion from a smaller
protection,
the colon
equipment on recover in 2013. The International Grainsthat still a large one by historical comparison the main food staple. The question is whether
each vessel, organisations can safeguard themselves eco-further nutri-
A third possible mechanism by which 4% uptional benefits are has figured prominently in that phase is completed or has further to run
Council ‘tentatively’ puts output the and the country
8 – 10 April 2014 . Bangkok International Trade & Exhibition Centre (BITEC), Bangkok, Thailand
nutritive value of feed is increased by feed achieved because export trade but what higher in the second half of the season. If it has run its
– which would be around 682m tonnes. recent world
enzymes is through the release of oligosac- phytate has the Australia can offer has been course, markets may refocus on the fact that
However, the worst-rated US hard red winter quality wheat
crop on modern record albeit sown commanding Asia’s foremost exhibition and
charides (Choct and Cadogan,–2001). These oncapacity to bind higher and higher premiums. world import demand for wheat overall is still
larger area – is a the a wild card of Canada, which conferences for the ingredients
cana be formed during bit of degradation in thisother important had a bigger exportable crop running about 8% down on the year, allowing
storage and is Russia’scarbohydrates bysouthernminerals
pack. So cell wall crop in its main sup-
catchment areas and are able to resist
such
and additives used in the
last year, has also been actively competing for global wheat prices to relax further. On the
plemental enzymes for exports. In both regionsas calcium, zinc,
global wheat import business. Farmers there other hand, the Near East and others might see
there has been by of either drought intend to iron production of animal feeds,
further degradation talk digestive enzymes ormanganese, sow between 5% and 10% more this further price cuts as a good buying opportunity.
andwinterkill clipping as the colon. Once in and year, which will be welcomed for its usually
so able to reach much as 25% even 30% copper thus aquafeeds and petfoods
the off production potential. Howevera nutri- reducing quality, normal weather permitting.
colon these oligosaccharides are that would higher their
ent nowhere for beneficial to a national/regionalbioavailability in
source near equate bacteria such as Lastly, we should not forget India which has
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS
Bifidobacterium and Lactobacillus doing whichwellthe digestive tract.
trend. US soft red crops are spp very a seventh successive record crop predicted AHEAD
suppressmoregrowth wheat could be sown on Additional in March and needs to clear some
and the spring of pathogenic bacteria to arrive
such as Salmonella, Clostridium, Campylobacter research has alsopoorly-stored stocks in export • How will US, European and Black Sea
abandoned acres. Ukraine’s crop is meanwhile of its record,
lector and andin good shape, nomically, established that revealed that Some think it could double sales to
could includecoli. probably the best appropriate channels. the
Escherichia It is well follow for years, health and crops emerge from a winter of challenging
sion, explosion venting or comeback in the secondprotect workers from to around 9m tonnes (also a
suggesting a safety standards and largest world phytase
reducing pathogenic bacteria in the colon inclusion of market weather?
potential risks.
improves Sea’ suppliers’ export feed conver- can record). Port logistics might limit what it can • Will the northern hemisphere have more
‘Black weight gain and the role. Then there improve both
sion ratio in pigs and poultry. have undoubtedlyileal sell pre-harvest and not everybody wants trade show and conference organised specifically for feed ingredients,
is Europe itself. Crops here amino acid FIAAP Asia 2014 is the only dedicated
‘normal’ conditions this year?
codes and standards the UK and Northwest Francedigestibility lower quality – additives and it morewithin the dynamicWheat use inoffeeds may ease back if maize
struggled in India’s and making formulation of a • and growing region South and South East Asia.
otential health problems, feed formulation freezingdietary foravail-
Cost saving of excessive wet, recent
from months factor feedgrain (maize) markets. However, crops do rebound but in the meantime
New for 2014 Supported by
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Regardless rain and flooding. East Europeanable itmetabolisable
and the EU mechanism by which is another bearish influence on prices.
Now including the first cheaperThe Thailand Convention could raise use in
wheat prices
ASEAN Feed Summit and Exhibition Bureau
rkers fromthe crops have also had some harsh weatherenergy Wheat prices will also be influenced in the
being harmed of BS&Bis increased, the
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value, can have had some quality disappointmentsnutrient and inter- Arab Spring, some traders maize to its livestock from last year’s
said to be utilised in the formulation. This region since the
can result in significant savings in feed costs estingly, in the last
for producers where, for example, some of decade, research
the wheat-based portion of the diet can be has demonstrated
replaced with cheaper barley, providing aNAI,that administering
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CONFERENCE
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In plants, the majority of phosphorous is Challenges
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Grain millinG technoloGy January - february 2013 | 11
Grain feed feed millinG technoloGy January - february 2013 2013 | 47
January - february | 19
C_90x132mm.indd 1 16/10/2012 16:50
9.
10. disappointingly small crop gave prices a lift
in January. Earlier, the Chicago futures market
had been down as much as 10% from its
early December highs. The USDA raised
its US feeding number by 7.6m tonnes to
113m. However, it also cut US exports by
5m tonnes and raised the 2012 final crop
estimate by 1.4m, limiting the impact on US
ending stocks to a more manageable 1.1m
tonne decline. Given that US exports are
still running well behind the target pace,
it’s possible that figure could go lower still,
freeing up a little more ending stock. On
the plus side for supplies, USDA raised
combined South American production by KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS This will be none too soon for the US
1.5m tonnes and the region’s expor ts by
3.5m. With increments to other, smaller AHEAD market which has been selling its supplies
out far too fas t for comfor t, chief ly
producers, world corn output actually • US 2013 crop maize planting area and feeding record first-half-season demand
increased last month to 852.3m from 849.1m growing weather will determine whether from top buyer China. Although some
tonnes. Nonetheless, world ending stocks US and global stocks of the grain return to of these advance bookings (ranging into
have tightened further still. more ‘normal’ levels 2013.14 now) could be washed out and
On the restraining side, as mentioned above, • How long will export competition from switched to South American, the US is
competition for US maize on world markets Latin America, former Soviet countries and likely to star t next season with very small
is keeping a lid on prices. This is coming not India contiunue intoi second quarter 2013? stocks. That will make markets sensitive
only from South American and east European The South American crops look promising over the coming months to any US weather
maize exports but from still relatively cheap but need more rain as we go to press problems, before, during and well after
feed wheat, including Indian and even some • Will US corn ethanol use revive after an sowing the crop around April/May. If all
South American and is expected to continue unusual decline in 2012? goes well, the US should fur ther boost
into second quarter 2013. • Chinese demand for maize has grown 37% 2013 supplies and help keep prices moving
Despite USDA’s upward revision, US feed use in just four years – can its crop keep up or lower.
of maize, also taking about 40% of production, will they raid the world market for larger Protein users have become increasingly
will still be about 2m tonnes lower than last volumes? dependent on soya in this season of
year’s and about 9m less than in 2010/11. • Speculators’ enthusiasm to buy into any disappointing rapeseed and sunflowerseed
However, US ethanol use is forecast about crop weather problems production. Apart from a little extra feeding
10% down this season and may fall further still of palm kernel and groundnut meal, almost
if profitability fails to stem the current spate Proteins/oilmeals - demand to all the increase in this season’s oilmeal
of plant shutdowns and slowdowns. All of this consumption will be fed by soyabean
could spell slightly larger stocks to start the new
mop up extra soya? products. At this stage, there are no firm
US season on September 1. SOYA supplies are still improving. The pointers to alternative oilmeals making
final US harvest a much bigger contribution in 2013/14
estimate has but we still have to see how Canadian
been revised rapeseed, EU and former Soviet countries’
up by more spring rape and sunflower plantings pan
than expected out. So far this lack of substitutes has
while South helped keep soya prices relatively f irm.
American crops Despite dipping by around 7% at one stage
are looking closer since our last review, the Chicago market
to attaining the has recently recouped most of its losses.
record 144.25m However, if the US gets the 90m tonne
(plus 33.25m) crop some expect in 2013, prices should
forecast by the come down more emphatically.
USDA . T he
tot al incr ea se
in world output
KEY FACTORS IN THE MONTHS
equals about AHEAD
World barley production also fell to a 26m tonnes more meal whereas global
multi-year low this season at just under consumption is only expected to increase • South American crop weather during the
130m tonnes and with consumption running by about 5.2m. Although there have been remainder of the growing/harvest period
closer to 133m, ending stocks will fall to a some dry weather jitters recently, the Lat- • The timing of importers’ switch to Lat-Am
multi-year low of under 20m tonnes. Stocks Am crops are now entering the home run from US supplies
will be par ticularly low within the EU by and some are already starting harvest so, • US spring planting decisions – and
end-June – 3.6m tonne compared with barring an extended dry spell or some last accompanying weather
15.6m just three years ago so there is not minute harvest weather problems, soya • Chinese demand for soya meal
much leeway if anything goes wrong with demand should be making its annual shift to • EU/CIS rapeseed & sunflowerseed and
the next crop. the southern hemisphere suppliers shortly. Canadian canola plantings and weather
48 | January - february 2013 Grain &feed millinG technoloGy
11. FEATURE
the product is not efficient. (data from Dr. alpha and beta forms)or mannans. Not associated form of selenium in the ani-
Morgane Henry, Hellenic Center for marine all the YCW are equal. Efficiency should mal’s body and then allow making organic
Research , 2011)
WANT NEWS? be checked as a prerequisite to use, or selenium which are readily available when
YCW products, depending Grain & Feed Milling Technology magazine has two new options for you reactions occur.
on the quality change, YCW. oxidative stress
of the autolysed yeast separation, containup to the LFA we have conducted a survey
- online and At minute! The main application would be in aqua-
also significant percentages of proteins and of four YCW (2 bakery and 2 brewery culture as fish meal is a main supply of
lipids. It should be noted that the lower the yeasts) produced in 4 of our own facto- selenium and the development of diets with
level of proteins, the higher of level of carbo- ries in the same L. Anguillarum challenge less fish meal will require compensation of
hydrates, and then the better immunostimu- in sea bass supplemented at 0.5 g/kg selenium in aquafeed formulae. Such an
lation from the YCW is. Various quality of of feed for 8 weeks. Only 2 responded application could be useful in preventing
YCW are on the animal production market significantly (1 bakery, 1 brewery), the the oxidation of poly unsaturated fatty acids
Global
THE
and major differences can be found between remaining 2 had even negative results at 4 (PUFA) in fish flesh. Chromium yeast is
Miller
products depending on the strain, the sub- weeks (lower survival than control). This seldom used in aquaculture diets.
strate used to produce the yeast, and event result shows first that not all is under-
the drying process. stood in the way these products work Conclusion
Mannans represent as most 25-27 per- and that one particular YCW cannot be Yeast products are getting more fre-
cent of YCW in good quality YCW from replaced by another. quently used in aquaculture. Some appli-
The Global Miller blog is an online offshoot The Global Milling News service is a new
primary grown yeasts, but can be found cations are promising as the use as an
of Grain & Feed Milling Technology magazine. development from the Perendale Publishers
as low as 9 percent in crude preparation Selenium yeast alternative source of proteins or as a sanitary
While the bi-monthly magazine covers mill- Limited family of grain, feed and flour milling
coming from industry by-products. Glucans Yeast can be induced to be a source and welfare enhancer. However many
ing issues in-depth, the Global Miller takes a publications. The site scours the web to find
or poly-glucose can range from 18 To 40 of organic selenium, mainly under the products ranging from crude ethanol yeast
lighter approach. The columnists dig out the relevant stories from around the globe. The
percent. YCW Protein level remains the form of seleniomethionine, which is then by-products to more purified beta-glucans
best daily industry stories, show and event information is then ranked and orgnaised by
most convenient indicator of quality, the stored in proteins. During the growth are available on the market. Therefore
news and highlights from the print magazine topic, making it easy to find information. If
best products being those having lower of baker’s yeast, selenium is added to potential users must accurately select them
and bring them to you ever day ... you’re searching for a specific topic, you’ll
nitrogen content. The variability between the medium and is replacing sulphurfind it at Global Milling News.
in in function of their targeted application. It is
batches can also be very high. Texture methionine. The excess of selenium is also as important to select a reliable source
should be checked first. Good YCW often then eliminated by careful washing steps of the products to ensure a consistency of
have a smooth, fine texture, low granu- (see Figure 5) to ensure that the selenium the supply and the quality.
lometry and a light beige colour. There is left is 97-99 percent organic. Selenium
also the tendency to believe that all YCW yeast should be then checked for the
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products must be done to the highest level and the consistency between batches. FREE on your mobile.
of glucans (sometimes measured as both Seleniomethionine is the main carbon-
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Grain &feed millinG technoloGy January - february 2013 | 31
49
12. Milling Technology magazine.
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