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The Global Mobile Revolution - GGV Capital

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The Global Mobile Revolution - GGV Capital

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The birth of the smartphone and then the app store have provided companies with a revolutionary platform to reach consumers all over the world. But this also means that any business that has an app is essentially global from day 1. This presentation analyzes how this global mobile revolution has occurred and offers strategies for tackling international mobile markets, specifically China and Europe.

The birth of the smartphone and then the app store have provided companies with a revolutionary platform to reach consumers all over the world. But this also means that any business that has an app is essentially global from day 1. This presentation analyzes how this global mobile revolution has occurred and offers strategies for tackling international mobile markets, specifically China and Europe.

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The Global Mobile Revolution - GGV Capital

  1. 1. The Global Mobile Revolution Delivering Apps to Global Markets @GGVCapital #globalmobile
  2. 2. • The Global Mobile Revolution • The Chinese Market • The European Market • Key Takeaways Contents
  3. 3. The Global Mobile Revolution
  4. 4. 4 More people on the planet use a mobile phone than use a toothbrush. Source: 60SecondMarketer.com
  5. 5. Smartphone usage is growing worldwide 5 1.06B 1.40B 1.76B 2.04B 2.29B 2.52B 2.73B 26% 32% 38% 42% 45% 48% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0.0B 0.5B 1.0B 1.5B 2.0B 2.5B 3.0B 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 W O R L D W I D E S M A R T P H O N E U S E R S & P E N E T R A T I O N Smartphone Users (Billions) % of Mobile Users Source: eMarketer, June 2014.
  6. 6. 6 2007 iPhone Gen 1 Launch 2008 iTunes App Store Launch = The Mobile Revolution Platform | Experience | Globalization +
  7. 7. The Mobile Revolution #1: Distribution Platform 7 After App Store • One free, centralized platform • Millions of users + millions of developers in one place • Streamlined discovery and distribution • Unprecedented distribution model • Leads to non-linear growth The app store completely changes how companies distribute software and services to users. Before App Store • Software downloaded from company websites or delivered on disks • One-by-one, mainly paid acquisition • Even the introduction of Google only addressed the discovery side of the equation
  8. 8. 8 A P P D O W N L O A D S G L O B A L LY I N 2 0 1 3 …up from zero 5 years earlier. 100+ billion Source: Gartner, 2013
  9. 9. The Mobile Revolution #2: User Experience 9 After Mobile Apps • Totally new UX designs • Simple, streamlined interfaces • Highly curated content, highly specific feature sets • Revolutionizing many categories: shopping, payments, video, messaging, finance, games • Complementary to the rise of social • Mobile-first companies will be the next wave of billion-dollar businesses Mobile apps have created drastically different user experiences than the web. Before Mobile Apps • Complex, feature heavy products • Web- or cloud-based applications often mimic the UX of the original software • Same old-UI, just in new locations • Everything but the kitchen sink approach to product design
  10. 10. More people worldwide access the internet on mobile than on a PC. Source: Gartner.com
  11. 11. The Mobile Revolution #3: Global 11 App Stores make mobile companies global from day 1 155 countries and territories 190 countries and territories
  12. 12. 12 US 163M 13% growth over 2013 Middle East & Africa 122M 31% growth over 2013 Brazil 41M 36% growth over 2013 Mexico 33M 22% growth over 2013 Argentina 13M 22% growth over 2013 Japan 77M 44% growth over 2013 China 522M 25% growth over 2013 India 270M 287% growth over 2013 Russia 75MW Europe 197M 29% growth over 2013 Total smartphone users in 2014 Sources: IDC, eMarketer, DazeInfo, Statista
  13. 13. Users are engaged across markets 13 16.8 29.6 25.9 32.2 28 38.8 16.9 17.8 23.5 36.4 23.1 20.2 28.5 32.8 A V E R A G E A P P S P E R S M A R T P H O N E Source: think.withgoogle.com/mobileplanet
  14. 14. 14 All this has happened in the last 6 years. And it’s just the tip of the iceberg.
  15. 15. 15 The Chinese Market • Opportunity and Challenges • Recommended Approaches • Case Studies
  16. 16. 16 The Opportunity and Unique Challenges in China
  17. 17. 17 Smart devices in use in China - more than the population of every country except India 700 million Source: Umeng Insight Report 2013, 03/12/2014.
  18. 18. Monetization is a challenge 18 Source: Distimo, “How the Most Successful Apps Monetize Globally,” February 2014; Nielsen, “The Asian Mobile Consumer Decoded,” 09/17/2013. Smartphone penetration is high in China at 71% (versus 60% in the US), but revenue generation remains challenging. $5.32 $2.30 $2.29 $2.25 $1.30 $0.92 $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00 Japan Germany USA UK Russia China A V E R A G E R E V E N U E P E R D O W N L O A D Apple App Store (Jan 2012-2014)
  19. 19. Distribution is complicated 19 There are over 200 mobile app stores in China, and the majority of Android app users come from outside of Google Play. US CHINA
  20. 20. 20 Local competition is very strong. Only 2 of the top 30 non-game apps in China are foreign. Source: Distimo, Jan 2014
  21. 21. 21 App sizes have to be kept small 79% 34%of mobile subscriptions are prepaid of mobile subscriptions use 3G Source: GSMA, as cited by We Are Social, April 2014. Akamai, “State of the Internet,” Q1 2014. 67%slower average internet speed than in the US
  22. 22. 22 Recommended Approaches in China Legal Structure Localization Local Team Hosting Distribution App Stores Monetization Billing & Payments IP & Regulations
  23. 23. Legal Structures 23 L I G H T W E I G H T S U G G E S T E D S U G G E S T E D App-Only Variable Interest Entity Invest in China Start- up • Submit your app to local app stores (complying with SDKs and certification requests) • No need to create a legal entity in China if you do not hire Chinese locals or operate a website hosted in China. • Performance issues likely due to hosting outside China and can’t leverage carrier billing, payment integration, or integration with domestic social networks. • Allows a foreign entity to control / invest in China. • The Chinese entity is technically majority Chinese-owned so it can legally hold the ICP license (needed to operate websites in China). • Has become popular among US-based businesses entering China • Not officially endorsed by the PRC, and may not be enforceable if the Chinese partner declines to uphold the agreement • Make an equity investment in a China startup with similar product or going after similar market. • Your product usually is not distributed in China via the partner. • Involvement is limited to investment and exchange of knowledge. • Good choice when local preferences would make localization of your product difficult. • Allows you to capitalize on the growth of the market via team of local experts.
  24. 24. Variable Interest Entity (VIE) Details 24 US Company Chinese Individuals / CEO / GM Special Purpose Vehicle (Offshore) Usually a Cayman Islands or Virgin Islands entity for tax purposes Wholly Foreign- Owned Entity (WFOE) 100% owned by Special Purpose Vehicle Domestic Licensed Co (VIE) Share 100% ownership of SPV The VIE allows a non-Chinese company to retain control over its Chinese operations while still technically complying with the requirement that the Chinese entity is majority owned by Chinese nationals. The domestic Chinese company that holds the requisite operating licenses has agreements with the Wholly Foreign Owned Entity (WFOE) that give the WFOE control of the domestic company and power to consolidate its own financials with the economic performance of the domestic entity. Recommendation: Recruit trusted core team member with PRC passport who can hold ICP license. O U T S I D E C H I N A I N S I D E C H I N A Contractual Relationship Chinese Individuals / CEO / GM Operators
  25. 25. Localization 25 Linguistic Cultural Operational • Translate content into Mandarin Chinese • Change name to memorable Chinese name (60% of the top 25 free apps have a Chinese name) • Hire in-house translation team or retain 3rd party translation service • Can also partner with a local app distribution partner that will handle localization as a service • Adapt in-app content to include local popular & historical references • Example: add characters or symbols from Chinese pop culture, history, astrology or myths • Adapt app mechanics (esp. if gaming) and operations to match expectations of local players • Integrate with the most popular social networks (QQ, WeChat, etc.) • Provide the most common payment methods (carrier billing, Alipay) • Adapt in-app purchase pricing to reflect average pricing for that market Source: InMobi, “What It Takes to Win in the Chinese App Market,” June 2013.
  26. 26. Local Team 26 Hire a GM in China • Often ideal candidates will have both US and China experience • Look for educated abroad at undergrad/Masters level and/or work experience in both US and Chinese tech companies • Give the local GM/CEO a fair amount of autonomy to hire his own team and make decisions for the local market • Plan to start with about 5 people Hire out of domestic Chinese leaders • They will understand the market and ecosystem • Tencent for gaming, web applications, social networking, chat • Alibaba for commerce, marketplaces, payments • Youku-Tudou for video, content • Baidu for search, social networking, mobile apps • Other major leaders such as Netease, Sohu, Qihoo360, Sina, Perfect World, Xiaomi
  27. 27. P R O V I D E R E X A M P L E C U S T O M E R S Aliyun, Alibaba’s cloud group, is the largest domestic infrastructure provider with nearly 1M indirect & direct customers Joyent launched in 2009 and partnered with ClusterTech to offer public cloud services using Joyent tech Azure launched in 2014 in partnership with 21Vianet and has over 9k customers with data centers in Beijing & Shanghai AWS launched in China in 2013 in partnership with local providers ChinaNetCenter and SINNET and has thousands of customers Cloud Valley is an infrastructure services firm that has worked with Evernote & Linkedin on their Chinese expansions; manages 3rd party partners to provide hosting, big data services, systems integration, operations and PR Hosting 27 Host apps in China to improve speed and availability * * * * * * GGV Capital invested in Alibaba, 21ViaNet, Kingsoft, Reebonz
  28. 28. Distribution: Partners 28 P A R T N E R S H I P P A R T N E R S H I P V E N D O R Top Internet Channels Distribution Services Mobile Ad Networks Leading internet channel partners are responsible for most of China’s app downloads The most established, premium option and may help keep copycats out of their app stores Negotiate performance-based ad fee or revenue share (30- 40%, not including billing fee) for distribution in their app stores Localization and distribution partners can help negotiate agreements with top channels and ad networks Can also help redesign and package your app for the Chinese market Additional fee or revenue share on top of what is negotiated with the major channels, but simplifies the launch process for a non- Chinese developer Major mobile ad networks exist, but market is more fragmented than in the US Reach is inferior to Tencent, Baidu, and Qihoo Real-time bidding is still nascent, so deals are negotiated in-person (similar to an agency model) * GGV Capital invested in Chukong, Yodo1 * *
  29. 29. Distribution: Social and Websites 29 Social • Key discovery method for users • Drives down acquisition costs in a very competitive market • 55% of the top 200 apps have social sharing or login • Sharing of app content grew 86X on WeChat and 29X on QQ from Mar-Nov 2013 Websites • Chinese smartphone users are more likely than US users to discover mobile apps from accessing websites on both their phone and PCs. Source: Umeng Insight Report 2013, 03/12/2014. InMobi, “What It Takes to Win in the Chinese App Market,” June 2013. T O P S O C I A L N E T W O R K S
  30. 30. App Stores 30 35.6% 25.4% 18.8% 14.2% 12.2% 9.3% 6.9% 5.4% 17.1% Qihoo 360 Tencent Wandoujia Hiapk 91 Wireless Baidu Anzhi AppChina Other T O P C H I N A T H I R D - P A R T Y A N D R O I D A P P S T O R E B Y M A R K E T S H A R E % of active app store users Source: Distimo, “How the Most Successful Apps Monetize Globally,” February 2014.; InMobi, “What It Takes to Win in the Chinese App Market,” June 2013. Focus on the 10 most popular apps stores, plus first-party carrier stores from China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom and Xiaomi Prioritize getting featured in the app stores - Chinese users are even more influenced by app store ratings, reviews and features than in the US
  31. 31. Monetization 31 D O M I N A N T P O P U L A R G R O W T H P O T E N T I A L In-App Purchase Advertising M-Commerce Free app download with in- app purchases for content, upgrades, items, or currency Enable in-app advertising via ad network or direct publisher relationships Sell physical goods through an in-app store or via affiliate links to 3rd parties ECONOMICS: 30% commission to carrier if using carrier billing; 25-50% revenue share to app store partner; plus additional revenue share to other payment processing or distribution partners PRO: Most popular and successful monetization method to date with variety of established billing options available (Alipay, carrier billing) CON: ARPU is low at $0.92 in China, even for top apps and revenue share for billing options can be steep, eroding margins ECONOMICS: Highly variable based on ad format, pricing type (CPA, CPM, CPI) and target user; Global mobile eCPM on Android varied from $0.11 to $1.26 on AppFlood PRO: Willingness to spend is high – 60% of global mobile ad spend in Q2 2014 came from China; banners are being replaced by higher quality interstitial, rich media, and video ads CON: The ad network landscape is extremely fragmented, with many players over-promising results ECONOMICS: If offering proprietary products (in an in-app physical gift shop), margin is flexible based on pricing; negotiable affiliate revenue % from brands and ecommerce partners PRO: Ideal for social networking, gaming, inspiration or lifestyle apps where offline goods (such as toys, clothing, event tickets, food) are relevant CON: If holding physical inventory, have added commerce logistics and liabilities, and affiliate revenue only becomes material at large transaction volumes
  32. 32. Direct to Carrier Billing 15-30% revenue share Most popular method of payment for in-app purchases in China, comprising up to 75% of total app revenue Online Payment Processing 2.5-3% revenue share Alibaba’s affiliate Alipay is the dominant player Mobile Monetization & Distribution Partners Negotiable rates Some distribution partners offer integrations for carrier billing and payment processing Payments and Billing 32 * GGV Capital invested in UCWeb, Yodo1 * *
  33. 33. IP and Regulations 33 IP Protection App Store Documentation Special Regulations Retain an IP lawyer to certify ownership of code and UI Legal counsel may be advisable for handling IP documentation, UI patent registration, app store- specific copyright certification and possibly additional governmental approval processes. Two suggested documents to obtain: 1. Copyright Registration for software 2. Patent Registration for Graphical User Interface Each app store requires different documentation, but two common ones may be: 1. PRC Software Copyright Certificate or other documentation that proves the developer’s ID 2. Documentation proving the developer is the IP owner or is authorized by the owner Partnerships with major channels (Baidu, Tencent, Qihoo) may be helpful in keeping copycats out of their app stores. Documentation is particularly important when the developer has no proprietary relationship with a platform. Different industries may have special regulatory requirements; be sure to research and comply For example, mobile game developers must get a special PRC Ministry of Culture approval
  34. 34. 34 Case Studies in China
  35. 35. Case Study: Evernote 35 Evernote is one of the few US-based companies to successfully launch a consumer internet & mobile product in China STRUCTURE: Separate service from Evernote US, with local Chinese General Manager, joint venture investment partner and cloud service LOCALIZATION: Translated Chinese name includes a character for “elephant,” making the logo and function easier to recall PRODUCT ADAPTATIONS: include an API for Chinese developers, integration with Chinese social networks and payment systems, and local Chinese language support TEAM: Hired Amy Gu as General Manager, a Stanford MBA who previously worked at mobile internet companies in China; now runs separate China team PARTNERS: Took $70M investment from and set up JV with China Broadband Capital (founder of infrastructure partner Cloud Valley); partnered with a local cloud infrastructure provider, Cloud Valley, to have greater control over speed & security MAY 2012 Launch localized service Yinxiang Biji (印象笔记) JULY 2012 1.1M users MAY 2013 4M users, including 5K companies NOV 2013 8M users
  36. 36. Case Study: LinkedIn 36 LinkedIn formally launched a Chinese service in 2014, to capitalize on strong existing demand USER BASE: Existing Chinese users mostly from top four cities, indicating an urban, white collar demographic. STRUCTURE / PARTNERS: Joint venture with two VC groups (Sequoia and China Broadband Capital) to form team with ~15 employees LOCALIZATION: Translated Chinese characters mean “leading” and “elite,” suggesting a premium service PRODUCT ADAPTATIONS: Integration with popular services including Sina Weibo and Tencent WeChat TEAM: For President of LinkedIn China, hired Derek Shen, a Masters in CS grad from UCLA and Chinese native who previously founded Nuomi (acquired by Baidu), led partnerships for Renren and led BD for Google China NOV 2013 3M+ registered users from China on LinkedIn (non- localized app) FEB 2014 Launches official site in China as Ling Ying (领英) MAY 2014 5M+ registered users in China
  37. 37. Case Study: HalfBrick / Fruit Ninja 37 Halfbrick Games (developer of Fruit Ninja) worked with localization partner iDreamSky to release a Chinese version of the app that saw over 400M downloads in China PAYMENTS: Uses carrier billing and Alipay like most local apps PRODUCT ADAPTATIONS: App incorporates integration with prominent local social networks, a Chinese character, and other visual adaptations to appeal to local gamers Local Chinese name + WeChat and QQ integration Chinese zodiac design replaces original background Sword-like stroke design inspired by user feedback/request
  38. 38. 38 The European Market • Opportunity and Challenges • Recommended Approaches
  39. 39. 39 The Opportunity and Unique Challenges in Europe
  40. 40. A growing market 40 8.7x 3.5x 3.5x 3.2x 3.2x 3.0x 2.7x 2.2x 1.8x 1.5x India United States Germany United Kingdom Brazil France Russia Canada Japan South Korea M O B I L E A P P R E V E N U E G R O W T H M U L T I P L E S Projected for 2013-2017 Source: App Annie & IDC, “Mobile App Advertising and Monetization Trends 2012-2017,” March 2014.OFCOM using data supplied by Tellgen, as cited by GSMA, 2013. With low costs for mobile internet access, key markets in Europe are forecasted to have the significant mobile revenue growth in the coming years
  41. 41. Source: SAP, “The Mobile Consumer: Insights on Europe, Middle East and Africa Trends Impacting Mobile Momentum and Customer Engagement,” 2013. European mobile users are most likely to make mobile payments for entertainment, bills, books, music, and apparel.
  42. 42. But significantly fragmented 42 Source: International Telecoms Union, as cited by We Are Social, 2014. 75M 45M 34M 33M 32M 25M 19M 10M 9M 6M 5M 5M 5M 5M 4M Top 15 European Countries By # Of Mobile Broadband Subscriptions Europe is comprised of 50 countries with a broad range of national languages and cultures - but most of these markets are so small that localization is not economical. High English literacy across the region does make expansion easier.
  43. 43. The business climate 43 Labor laws make it difficult to compensate employees in options, keep execution speed at rate of US/China, and turnover the team as quickly as US/China if needed Economic growth and smartphone penetration growth are fairly slow, reducing the chances of rapid growth for a new market entrant Local startups have less access to capital compared to the US, making it possible to execute faster than local competition Possible antitrust, taxation, and in-app purchase regulations may hinder US-based companies that are not prepared to fight policy battles
  44. 44. 44 Recommended Approaches in Europe Platform Distribution Monetization Billing & Payments
  45. 45. Platform 45 Europe’s dominant mobile platform is Android, making the Google Play app store one of the primary distribution channels. Source: Kantar World Panel, Jul 2014 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% F r a n c e G e r m a n y S p a i n U K I t a l y M O B I L E O S M A R K E T S H A R E Android iOS Windows Other
  46. 46. Distribution: Social 46 Source: Vincent Cosenza, “World Map of Social Networks” as cited on Vincos Blog. Note: Reflects top social networks based on Alexa rank. T O P S O C I A L P L A T F O R M S W O R L D W I D E Facebook is the top social network in Europe (except in Russia), so social media- based user acquisition in Europe can be Facebook- centric, as it is in the US.
  47. 47. Monetization 47 Source: Source: App Annie & IDC, “Mobile App Advertising and Monetization Trends 2012-2017,” March 2014. GigaOM Research (sponsored by European Commission), February 2014. 60 70% of app revenue in top European markets (UK, Germany, France, Russia) will come from mobile advertising by 2017 € Revenue from paid apps in the EU in 2014 - currently the top source of app revenue projected revenue from in-app purchases in 2016, at which point it will overtake paid app revenue in the EU P A I D A P P I N - A P P A D V E R T I S I N G
  48. 48. Billing and Payments 48 Carrier billing for digital goods in Europe is forecasted to grow from 5% of purchases to 18% by 2017. Source: Dimoco & Juniper Research, "Is Mobile Operator Payment the Ideal Payment Method to Bill Digital Content?” 2013. €5.2Bwill be spent in 2017 through carrier billing, up from €790M in 2012
  49. 49. 49 Key Takeaways
  50. 50. Global + Mobile: How-to Guide 50 Find your targets Know the user How local to go • Regions in which you are already getting traction with your app • Countries with high smartphone penetration and broadband use • Regions that are similar to places you are already successful • Areas with high English literacy that will require less localization • Lack of incumbents– no dominant existing player to unseat • How to monetize: What are the most successful models in the region: in-app purchases, paid apps, advertising, or m-commerce? • How to pay: Are credit cards the dominant payment choice or are users more likely to use carrier billing or third-party payment solutions? • How to distribute: How do your users discover new apps: social, app stores, web, ads? • Local product: Translation, localization of app name, changing visuals, graphics, characters and more to appeal to local consumers • Local hosting: to deliver quality app experience • Local team: who knows the market • Local partners: to help with operations and distribution
  51. 51. Thank you

Notes de l'éditeur

  • Sources: IDC, eMarketer, DazeInfo, Statista

    For global # of smartphone users: http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Worldwide-Smartphone-Usage-Grow-25-2014/1010920
    o   Estimates that APAC is at 951M for 2014
    o   Estimates that China alone is at 521.7M smartphone users (although this article says 700M - http://techcrunch.com/2014/03/13/china-now-has-700m-active-smartphone-users-says-umeng/)
    o   http://www.onlinemarketing-trends.com/2014_02_01_archive.html
    Estimates that Western Europe is at 196.6M smartphone users for 2014
    o   Estimates that the US is at 163.4M smartphone users for 2014
    -          Middle East & Africa: http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Smartphone-Usage-Continues-Fast-Growth-Middle-East-Africa/1011238
    -          Latin America: http://www.emarketer.com/Article/2013-Year-of-Smartphone-Latin-America/1010545
    o   Estimates Latin America is at 145.6M for 2014
    -          Japan: http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Smartphone-Use-Japan-Makes-Steady-Gains/1010226
    o   Estimates Japan at 76.5M for 2014)
    -          Related: # of mobile phones (not just smartphones) by country:
    o   http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Asia-Pacific-Reaches-Whopping-25-Billion-Mobile-Phone-Users/1010247
     
    http://www.statista.com/statistics/201182/forecast-of-smartphone-users-in-the-us/
    http://www.dazeinfo.com/2014/06/22/smartphone-apac-market-forecast-2014-2018-india-china-australia-japan-growth/
    http://www.networkworld.com/article/2600449/opensource-subnet/emerging-smartphone-markets-to-soar-as-mature-market-growth-slows-idc-says.html
    http://www.statista.com/statistics/257057/smartphone-user-penetration-in-russia/
  • http://www.techinasia.com/10-android-app-stores-china-2014-edition/
    http://www.techgyd.com/alternative-android-app-stores/6875/
  • http://talent.linkedin.com/blog/index.php/2014/08/how-western-companies-should-go-about-hiring-talent-in-china
    http://www.powerretail.com.au/retailer-perspective/shoes-of-prey-china-team/
  • http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=176
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/benkepes/2014/03/26/azure-available-in-china-roll-on-the-chinese-public-cloud-opportunity/060&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1885559
  • http://www.donews.com/net/201311/2630313.shtm
    http://www.techinasia.com/evernote-china-4-million-users-2013/
    http://technode.com/2013/11/04/evernote-has-8-million-users-in-mainland-china-9-percent-of-its-global-user-base/
  • http://www.donews.com/net/201311/2630313.shtm
    http://www.techinasia.com/evernote-china-4-million-users-2013/
    http://technode.com/2013/11/04/evernote-has-8-million-users-in-mainland-china-9-percent-of-its-global-user-base/
  • http://www.donews.com/net/201311/2630313.shtm
    http://www.techinasia.com/evernote-china-4-million-users-2013/
    http://technode.com/2013/11/04/evernote-has-8-million-users-in-mainland-china-9-percent-of-its-global-user-base/

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