In the event of a wildfire, accurate evacuation planning information can have a huge impact on life safety. Traditional fire behavior prediction tools require information (such as an origin or an up-to-the-minute location of the flaming front) to run simulations. Often, this information is not readily available in the chaotic environment surrounding the initial response to a wildfire. Planning for a wildfire event is only effective if it is flexible, taking into account a variety of contingencies (fire location, weather conditions, etc.) from the start. This type of flexibility is not common in standard pre-planning practices. Time Until Fire Arrival (TUFA) is a new GIS tool, designed as an ArcMap ModelBuilder product, to map the shortest potential time it would take a fire to reach a pre-determined value-at-risk or area of concern, regardless of where it ignites on the landscape. TUFA takes the form of a map with isochrones (lines of equal time) depicting the time until a fire will arrive. This tool can be used in multiple ways including determining trigger points for evacuation or production stoppage (for the oil/gas or mining industry). The presentation will address the background, technical challenges, potential uses and future directions for TUFA.

1. Time Until Fire Arrival
(TUFA) modeling
Mark McLean, Ph.D.
October 9, 2013

2. Anchor Point Company Profile
• Wildfire hazard and risk mitigation – solutions from
pre-planning through mitigation management
• Company formed by firefighters
• Clients both private and government
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Other consulting firms
Home owner associations
Fire departments
Local, State and Federal Government
Hazard and risk assessments
Community Wildfire Protection Plans (CWPPs)
Fuel treatment project management
National Hazard and Risk Model (No-HARM)

3. Background
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Important for many reasons to know when a potential fire will arrive
– Suppression trigger points
– Evacuation concerns
– Production shutdown (oil and gas)
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Excellent fire behavior modeling tools available (FlamMap,
FARSITE, BehavePlus) but none appropriate for this particular task
Fire rate of spread is available – why not turn this into time?
http://news.yahoo.com/thousands-flee-colo-wildfire-92homes-destroyed-084723709.html
http://www.isciencetimes.com/articles/5392/20130612/colorado-firesforce-2-000-homes-4.htm

4. TUFA – What is it?
• Modeling technique that
makes lines of equal time
(isochrones) for a fire to
arrive at a given location
• Works for fires located
anywhere on the map
• Worst case scenario
– Wind blowing toward focus
area
– 97th percentile weather
scenario (adjustable)
– Shortest time until fire
arrives

5. Methodology Overview
• Prepare input data
– Fuel (LANDFIRE)
– Weather
– Topography
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Run FlamMap
Export Rate of Spread
Convert to time
Adjust for vectoring
Run cost distance
Visualize outputs

6. Fire Behavior Modeling
Fuel
Weather
Topography
Flame Length
Rate of Spread
Crown Fire

7. Model Builder
• Great for nonprogrammers!
• Visual nature makes it
easy to follow
• Readily available in
basic ArcMap
• Once built, the model
can be run quickly
• NOT magic (see next
slide)

8. Challenges
• Vectoring
– Reconciling wind
and slope direction
– Cyclic nature of
directional data
• Input data
– Projection is crucial
– Input data are
sometimes cranky
(focus as point vs.
polygon)

9. Limitations
• Only takes flaming
front into account
(not
spotting/embering)
• Worst case scenario
might be too extreme
• Difficult to relate
model conditions to
those experienced
on the particular day
of a fire
jalcornphoto.photoshelter.com

10. Case Study 1 – Future Housing
Development
• Access route as
focus
• Mostly one way in
and out
• Negotiations with
county for
mitigation
requirements
– Second access
road?
– Landscape fuel
treatment?
– Treat fuel along
road?

11. Case Study 2
• Theme park with a
large number of
visitors
• Aerial tram as main
access
• Shelter-in-place vs.
full scale evacuation
(depends on time)

12. Future Directions/Applications
• Other disasters?
• Better handling of
slope
• Address multiple
source problem
• Refine fire behavior
modeling
http://www.listal.com/list/pets-steal-show

13. Questions or Comments?
?
http://www.jimmyfungus.com/2012/11/epic-facepalm-compilation-most-epic.html