IDRC 2014 Bukvic presentation

Assessing Relocation Potential in
Hurricane-Sandy Affected Coastal
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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Communities
Anamaria Bukvic, Urban Affairs and Planning,
Virginia Tech, USA

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Should we stay or should we go now?
Should we stay or should we go now?
If we go there will be trouble
An’ if we stay there will be double
So come on and let us know
Should we stay or should we go?

Repetitive and permanent impacts…
MEDIATORS:
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OUTCOMES:
Psycho-social and economic damages
Indirect/secondary impacts
Recovery progress…
Should we stay or
should we go now?
Stress and trauma
Personal circumstances
Attitudes and perceptions

• Overconfidence in technology and engineering solutions
• Unsustainable coastal land use patterns
• Choosing only feel-good short-term adaptation options
• Avoiding wicked problems until they escalate
• Lack of accountability and inertia
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• Relocation as adaptation strategy
• Lack of political will/no incentives to pursue this option
• No single governmental agency has authority to relocate
Sources: 1IAWG (2009); 2Kniveton (2008)
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people (even if they want it)1
• There is no funding designated for the relocation1
• No framework for public participation in the process1
• Mobility management under humanitarian and federal
authorities – assistance on responsive, short-term basis with
short-term solutions2

• To identify areas where in situ adaptation may be ineffective
• Inform policy and planning (land use, assistance…)
• To alert stakeholders, make wiser investments
• To explore opportunities and benefits
• To develop relocation tools/policy in a bottom-up fashion
• Perceptions differ – based on the experience and exposure
• Many concerns: tax increases, FEMA maps, insurance,
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repetitive damage, contradictory requirements…
• To provide info proxy decision-support tools cannot

Regional vulnerability to relocation
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STATE COUNTY
Connecticut New Haven
New Jersey Cumberland
New Jersey Essex
New Jersey Passaic
Maryland Baltimore
Maryland Dorchester
New York Kings
New York Queens
Bukvic and Puckett (2013)
Sandy high impact counties

Integration: what do people think???
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?

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Bukvic and Owen, 2013

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• Reasons prompting relocation
– Storms, hurricanes, related flooding (32% most preferred)
– Sea-level rise (44% somewhat preferred)
– Neighbors, friends, and family moved somewhere else (51% least preferred)
– Due to health and safety of myself and my family (73% most preferred)
– Recommendations from the local government (50% least preferred)
– Homeowners pay for property damage at their own cost (42% most preferred)
• Preferred solutions
– 1st levees/seawalls; 2nd natural barriers; 63% relocation less preferred
– 75% the least preferred: Nothing, the event like this will not happen again
anytime soon
• Type of assistance
– 48% Offer to purchase home at pre-storm value, I will do the rest

Would you currently consider a buyout program to
move somewhere else in the future?
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Yes
28%
No
46%
Cannot decide
5%
Maybe in the
future
21%
Other
0%

If you would consider relocation, which of these
options would you prefer?
Other
5%
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Moving together
as a community
8%
Moving together
with selected
few friends
18% Moving together
with others in
the same
interest group
(church,
ethnic…)
0%
Moving
independently -
own my own
69%

• Spontaneous relocation is already happening under the radar
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and should be acknowledged
• The major shifts in attitudes and actions, as well as the ability
to “think the unthinkable” needed
• Policy and planning barriers to recovery and relocation should
be identified and addressed
• More research needed on when, why, how, where, and who of
relocation.
“If the state steps in to provide insurance to protect against CC driven storms,
it will soon become clear that grandmothers in Albany are paying to insure the
lifestyle choices of beachside condo-dwellers”
– Chris Walker (Swiss Re/GBN)

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Thank you
Questions • Comments: ana.bukvic@vt.edu
Acknowledgements: Erin Puckett, Graham Owen, Yang Zhang, William
Drake, Ning Wang, and Xinran Hu
This material is based upon work supported by the National
Science Foundation under grant no. EAR-1312813

Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
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Disaster Risk Reduction
• How did your work support the implementation of the Hyogo
Framework for Action:
– Proposing a novel integrated assessment for evaluation of relocation
potential in coastal communities
– Facilitating engagement of disaster risk community in a dialogue on worst
case scenario – when recovery is not possible
– Emphasizing gap between actual risk and policy/planning responses in
costal communities and developing strategies to bridge it
• From your perspective what are the main gaps, needs and further
steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk
Reduction in
– Research: integration, bridging disciplinary divide, communication
– Education & Training: communicating science, consolidating rhetoric
– Implementation & Practice: more user-friendly and straightforward
– Policy: focus on benefits, development of decision-support tools

IDRC 2014 Bukvic presentation

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