5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. The Benefits of Seasonal Forecasts
for Food Security: Case Studies in
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Malawi and Zambia
Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola, Otto Hyvärinen & Ari Venäläinen,
Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Finland
Minchul Sohn, Hanken School of Economics, Finland
Elina Kululanga & Lucy Mtilatila, Department of Climate Change and
Meteorological Services, Malawi
Felix Imbwae & Lyson Phiri, Zambia Meteorological Department, Zambia
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2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
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Purpose of the study
1. To present and describe a systematic way to analyse the use
and value of weather and climate forecasts in society
2. To assess the use and benefit creation of the provision of
seasonal forecasts for improved food security by identifying
the challenges in the generation, dissemination and use of
seasonal forecasts as early warning information in Malawi
and Zambia

3. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
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Malawi and Zambia

4. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
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Why?
• Both countries are facing serious challenges with food security
• Situation exacerbated by abnormal rainfall causing poor yields or
total loss of harvests; with the situation likely to further deteriorate
due to climate change.
• “One of the challenges faced by SARCOF (Southern Africa Regional
Climate Outlook Forum) in general is the transformation of the
rainy season information to ensure the proper application across
various socio-economic decision-making processes. The seasonal
forecast has implications for improving food security, health,
disaster risk management, water resources and hydropower
management in the SADC region.” -SADC Climate Risk Capacity
Building website (emphasis added)
http://www.sarva.org.za/sadc/workshops/sarcof13.php

5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
5
Hypothesis
• Successful use of seasonal forecasts produced in the SARCOF
could have two potential benefits in improving the food
security situation
• Use in the food security vulnerability assessments –
enable prompt preparedness and response
• Integration into farming practices could increase yields
and improve the situation.

6. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
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Approach and Method (I)
1 Forecast
Accuracy
Verification
2 Appropriate
data
Semi-structured
interviews
3 Timely
Access 4 Comprehension
of information
Semi-structured
interviews Semi-structured
interviews
Weather Service Chain Analysis (WSCA) assesses
the degree of information decay in the weather
service chain by decomposing the chain into 7 steps
to approximate the actual level of realized benefits
in the sector under consideration.

7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
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Approach and Method (II)
5 Ability to
respond
Document
Analysis
6 Effectiveness
of response
Semi-structured
interviews
Document
Analysis
Semi-structured
interviews
7 Benefits to
society

8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
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Results
Step 1 - Accuracy
GPCP - Global Precipitation Climatology Project
ROC -Relative Operating Characteristics

9. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
9
Results
Step 1 – Accuracy
Challenge
• Seasonal forecasts are used to estimate the need for response to food
insecurity situations.
• Seasonal forecast in the region does not necessarily perform any better
than climatology, and occasionally the performance is even poorer.
 Latter steps of the WSCA partly lose their significance.
• However, verification complicated & forecast methods have improved
from the old forecasts used in the verification; furthermore, predictability
in the area may be weak.
 What is the situation in the subsequent steps of WSCA?
 What could be done to improve the situation

10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
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Results
Steps 2-4 – Approriate data; Access; Comprehension
• As the accuracy of the forecast is debatable, particular
attention should be paid to the communication and
dissemination of the forecast.
• Challenges in the access among farmers
• To decrease the hampering effect of false alarms,
dissemination should focus on cases of clear signal of
abnormal rainfall
 When the signal is weak, communicate the weak signal clearly
to the key stakeholders
 Restrict the dissemination only to stakeholders who clearly
understand the forecasting process, such as official instances
working on the vulnerability assessments.

11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
11
Results
Step 5 – Response
Farmer level
• Capacity of the farmers to
respond to information is often
poor
• Poverty; Capacity; Role of
traditional knowledge in farming
practices and use of indigenous
forecasts has been high.
• However, ongoing training of
farmers  the response to the
seasonal forecast should not be
seen as impossible, even though
the current situation is not
necessarily promising.
Administrative level
• Countries suffer from the lack of
disaster policies and strategies in
case of high risk of food insecurity
• Usually the response takes place
when the food security situation
has already worsened

12. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
12
Conclusions
Steps 6-7 – Effectiveness of response and benefits
• First and foremost, improvements in the seasonal prediction skill
– Research, regional effort. Current value remains unclear, could be close to
nothing.
• As the current accuracy of the forecast is debatable, possibility for
high benefits may occur in the future.
– If the forecast skill improves, latter steps require efforts from the countries
• Preparedness and response from the governments
• Essential to improve farmers’ response to the current and future
climate to increase resilience
– already endorsed by NGOs working in the area.
– Increases the possibilities for farmers to cultivate with the best
available technology
– if the farming practices are successfully adapted to the historical
climate, a clear signal of abnormal season effectively communicated
and disseminated has the potential to improve the food security
situation substantially.

13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
13
Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
Disaster Risk Reduction
• How did your work support the implementation of the Hyogo Framework
for Action:
– Early Warning Systems (EWS) are addressed in the Framework
– This study provides a systematic analysis & case study of an early warning used to
tackle a major, oft-occurring disaster and identifies obstacles in the benefit
creation
• From your perspective what are the main gaps, needs and further steps to
be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in
– Research: Development of forecast skill
– Education & Training: farmer training, training individuals and communities to
respond to information (not only weather)
– Implementation & Practice: EWS can have major benefits for food security
situation. However, the use and implementation have several obstacles. Improved
situation requires efforts from the governments, civil society and individuals
– Policy: Lack of proper DRR policies and implementation in the countries hamper
the efficient of use of EWS. Countries require support to develop and implement
policies.