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Potential Spread of
  Vector Borne Diseases
in Face of Climate Change
        Carl BEIERKUHNLEIN,
 Stephanie THOMAS, Dominik FISCHER

      Department of Biogeography,
     University of Bayreuth, Germany




   One Health Summit, Davos, CH, 2012
Decision Making




Beierkuhnlein C & Foken T 2008. Regional Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for the State
of Bavaria. BayCEER 113: 500 pp. (in German)
Vectors

Arthropod vectors for human pathogens are
expected to spread due to changes in :

 temperature

 precipitation                         Climate
                                        Change
 climatic variability (extremes)

 functional connectivity between continents
Case Studies / Diseases

Aedes albopictus

 Dengue
 Chikungunya


Phlebotomus spp.

 Visceral Leismaniasis
1.) Connect                                 2.) Identify                              3.) Relate to
climatic variables /                        bioclimatic                               climate change
presence records                            envelopes                                 projections
                                                                                       IPCC scenarios




                                         Humidity
                                                    Temperature

                                                                                                         COSMO CLM
                                                                                                         REMO
                                                                                                         WETTREG
                                                                                                         STAR




Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2010: Climate change effects on vector-borne diseases in Europe.
Nova Acta Leopoldina 112 (384): 99-107.
Ae. albopictus   Dengue Virus
Aedes albopictus Risk Projection – Geostatistical




Fischer D, Thomas SM, Niemitz F, Reineking B, Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes
albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions. Global Planetary Change 78: 54-64
Shifts in Bioclimatic Envelopes
                                                                  Differences in climatic
                                                                  conditions exposed to Aedes
                                                                  albopictus between its native
                                                                  and its invaded range


                                                                              Native populations (SE Asia)
                                                                              Invasive except Europe
                                                                              Europe




Fischer D, Thomas SM, Niemitz F, Reineking B, Beierkuhnlein C 2011: Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes
albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions. Global Planetary Change 78: 54-64
Aedes albopictus establishment combined with
       lilkelihood of Dengue amplification




                                                                            dengue amplification unfulfilled
                                                                            Vector establishment unfulfilled
                                                                            Vector almost fulfilled + dengue
                                                                            Vector fulfilled + dengue

Thomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virus
amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections Erdkunde 65 137-150
Aedes albopictus establishment combined with
lilkelihood of Dengue amplification




                               dengue amplification unfulfilled
                               Vector establishment unfulfilled
                               Vector almost fulfilled + dengue
                               Vector fulfilled + dengue
Current probability of dispersal of Aedes albopictus
by ship transport of goods inward EU from infested countries
                    currently
Projected probability of dispersal of Aedes albopictus
               by ship transport of goods inward EU from infested countries
Vector requ.
Containers




   In the first half of the century Italian seaports and Bilbao
   provide climatic suitable conditions for Aedes albopictus,
   from mid-century on this is true for Hamburg and Rotterdam.
Dengue and Chikungunya
 for 2011 – 2040 period, based on IPCC A1B, geostatistical
Dengue                          Chikungunya
Case Studies / Diseases

Aedes albopictus

 Dengue
 Chikungunya


Phlebotomus spp.

 Visceral Leismaniasis
Bioclimatic suitability for Phlebotomus species




                                                  70 % training points
                                                  30 % test points
                                                  AUC-values > 0.9

                                                  For A1B-scenario and Cosmo
                                                  CLM regional climate model
                                                  (based on ECHAM5)
Bioclimatic suitability for Phlebotomus species




                                                  70 % training points
                                                  30 % test points
                                                  AUC-values > 0.9

 Maxent considers „presence only“ points but no   For A1B-scenario and Cosmo
                                                  CLM regional climate model
 confirmed absence data.
                                                  (based on ECHAM5)
Bioclimatic suitability for Phlebotomus species                                    A1B vs. A2-scenario
                                                                                   Cosmo CLM Regional Model




Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2010: Temperature-derived potential for the establishment of
phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany. Geospatial Health 5(1): 59-69.
Bioclimatic suitability for Leishmania infantum                                    A1B vs. A2-scenario
                                                                                   Cosmo CLM Regional Model




Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2010: Temperature-derived potential for the establishment of
phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany. Geospatial Health 5(1): 59-69.
Probability of visceral leishmaniasis                                              A1B vs. A2-scenario
                                                                                   Cosmo CLM Regional Model




Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2010: Temperature-derived potential for the establishment of
phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany. Geospatial Health 5(1): 59-69.
Moving Targets

Arthropod vectors are short-lived and may
exhibit evolutionary adaptation to novel
environments.

Arboviruses show modifications and the
development of regional variants too.

Average temperature and precipitation values are
insufficient proxies – windows of opportunity and
limitation must be identified.
Challenges
•   Entomologicial and virological knowledge on climatic
    constraints (e.g. for serotypes) is limited (for modeling)
•   New IPCC Scenarios are on the way and will result in new
    GCMs to be translated into Regional Climate Models
•   Human vectors (network, hubs, and intensity of transport
    and travelling activities) are changing too
•   Human population density and landuse is changing
    regionally different but this is not yet integrated in models
•   Reservoir hosts have to be modeled too
•   Bioclimatic Modeling Algorithms are developing rapidly
    (BRT, RF, GLM, GAM) – true absence must be considered
Publications
Fischer D, Moeller P, Thomas S, Naucke, TJ, Beierkuhnlein C (2011) Combining climatic
projections and dispersal ability: a method for estimating the responses of sandfly vector
species to climate change. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 5(11), e1407
Fischer D, Thomas S, Niemitz F, Reineking, B, Beierkuhnlein C (2011) Projection of climatic
suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions.
Global and Planetary Change, 78 54-64
Thomas S, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T, Beierkuhnlein C (2011) Risk assessment of
dengue virus amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate
change projections. Erdkunde, 65(2) 137-150 (2011)
Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C (2011) Modelling climatic suitability and dispersal for
disease vectors: the example of a phlebotomine sandfly in Europe. Procedia Environmental
Science 7, 164-169.
Fischer D, Thomas S, Beierkuhnlein C (2010) Temperature-derived potential for the
establishment of phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany. Geospatial
Health, 5(1), 59-69 (2010)
Fischer D, Thomas S, Beierkuhnlein C (2010) Climate Change Effects on Vector-Borne
Diseases in Europe. Nova Acta Leopoldina, 112 (384), 99-107 (2010)
Ae. albopictus     Dengue Virus




Humidity        Temperature
Ae. albopictus    Dengue Virus




Feuchte        Temperatur
Ae. albopictus       Dengue Virus




  Feuchte        Temperatur




ships                         planes




             Risk Assessment
Phlebotomus perniciosus

   Potential current distribution / occurrence


  Probability of
  occurrence




Geostatistical calculations are based on confirmed locations / climatic data.
70 % training points, 30 % test points, AUC-values > 0.9
Least-cost path: Cost distance and cost backlink




P. perniciosus: current situation to upcoming time-period (2011-2040, A1B scenario)
- Cost distance: for orthogonal and diagonal movement
- Cost backlink: direction to the value of least costs for each raster cell


Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2011: Modelling climatic suitability and dispersal for disease vectors: the
example of a phlebotomine sandfly in Europe. Procedia Environmental Science 3, in press.
Cooperation is needed!

Feel encouraged to share data and to contribute
to the improvement of modeling projections.


                   Medicine
Climatology                         Population Biology
                 Entomology
 Biogeography                         Parasitology
                    Ecology
Ornithology                            Virology
     Human Geography          Veterinary Medicine
Projected probability of Dengue dispersal by incoming
                 passengers by plane from endemic countries
Pathogen requ.
Passengers




    Until the end of the century most airports (excl. nordic
    countries and UK) exhibit thermal conditions that allow
    dengue transmission.
            Thomas S.M., Fischer D., Beierkuhnlein C.,(in prep.)
Dengue Incubation

              Extrinsic incubation period
  Mosquito                                    Mosquito
   bites          8 d at 22°C (Blanc)         infected
                                                           Virus can be transferred

                                                               Days



                        Extrinsic incubation period
   Mosquito                                                                     Mosquito
    bites                  12 d at 30°C (Watts)                                 infected
                                                                                      Virus can be transferred


                                                                                           Days



             Extrinsic incubation period
 Mosquito
  bites
               7 d at 32-35°C (Watts) Mosquito
                                         infected
                                                Virus can be transferred


                                                    Days
Biotic Effects of Global Change

Global changes are of many facets that are
influencing the decline but also the spread of
organisms AND pathogens.

Modifications of regional biodiversity patterns
are likely to occur.
Risk Assessment in Face of Climate Change

Interacting responses of organisms AND
pathogens have to be considered.

Effects of climatic changes AND of increased
transport and travelling activities must be
integrated.

Additionally
Projecting Biotic Responses to Climate Change

has to consider:

• Probabilities of occurrence of windows of
  opportunity (based on Scenarios, GCMs,
  Regional CMs)
• Human vectors (e.g. transport, travelling
  intensity, harbors, airports, roads, railways)
• Human population density
• Physical barriers (relief, DEM)
Aedes albopictus
Until 1978
Aedes albopictus
until 1990
Aedes albopictus
until 2000
Aedes albopictus
In 2009
Dengue Risk Areas




Pathogen temperature restriction based on Watts et al. -> 7d 32-35 °C
Thomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virus
amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections Erdkunde 65 137-150
Dengue Risk Areas




Pathogen temperature restriction based on Blanc –EIP > 8d > 22 °C
Thomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virus
amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections. Erdkunde 65 137-150
Literature Survey
                                    40
                                                multidisciplinary Sciences
                                    35          Geo- and Environmental Sciences
                                                Ecology
                                    30
# Publications ISI web of science




                                                Biology
                                    25          Entomology
                                                Parasitology
                                    20
                                                Veterinary Science
                                    15          Medicine

                                    10



                                    5


                                    0
                                         1990   1992      1994   1996        1998   2000   2002   2004   2006      2008

             Topic=("dengue*" AND …), Topic=(“DENV" AND …), Topic=("chikungunya*" AND …), Topic=(“CHIKV" AND …),
             Topic=("west* nil*" AND …), Topic=(“WNV" AND …)
             ( … AND"climat* chang*" OR "global* chang*" OR "global* warm*")
Indirect Impacts



             Global & Climatic Changes




Reservoirs              Vectors          Pathogens



                        Humans
Chikungunya and Dengue


    Chikungunya                                             Dengue

       currently




Fischer D., Thomas S.M., Fleischmann S. et al. (in prep.)
Chikungunya and Dengue


Chikungunya                  Dengue

 2011- 2040
 A1B
Chikungunya and Dengue


Chikungunya                  Dengue

 2041- 2070
 A1B
Impacts of Climate Change

                         Ecosystem Functioning
            e.g.
                    soil formation carbon cycle photosynthesis
                    herbivory        pollination       mykorrhiza




                Biodiversity and Ecological Complexity




             Ecological Services to Mankind
           maintenance protection regulation                   culture
           • food               • flooding         • climate   • recreation
                 Biological Control • pests • education
           • potable water • land slides
                                         of Diseases
           • fuel               • avalanches       • water     • aesthetics
           • etc.               • etc.             • etc.      • etc.
Climatic Data




Weather Stations in Worldclim

                                http://www.worldclim.com/methods.htm
Aedes albopictus




     Occurrence probability based on
     current climatic conditions
Climate Models, Environmental Envelopes and Future Projections of Vectors and Pathogens


In the face of climate change, responses of species distribution patterns to climate warming and
modified precipitation regimes are expected. Here, we scrutinize options for the detection of
environmental envelopes for Aedes albopictus comparing models that are based on its native
range with models that are considering the ecological conditions in its invasive range today. The
findings are used for the projection of future distribution patterns, which consider several IPCC
scenarios of possible global developments during the 21st century. These projections are
showing a spectrum of options for future occurrences of this important vector.
Then, we detect temperature requirements of important pathogens such as dengue. By
combining the climatic and especially thermal requirements of vectors and pathogens and
relating these to the projected climatic conditions, we model geographically explicit spatial
distributions of potential risks that may arise during the next decades.
Finally, we identify the most important pathways for the spread of vectors such as Aedes
albopictus. Human mobility, transport and trade are contributing to distribution of organisms. If
climatic niches are developed for vectors AND pathogens during climate change and if the
potentially appropriate regions can be accessed or are connected by infrastructure then risks for
disease outbreaks have to be detected. Early warning approaches may concentrate on such
regions in order to conduct activities in most efficient ways.
Aedes albopictus: Kälte-Toleranz der Eier
Klimaeignung für den Überträger: Aedes albopictus


currently
                                                        Bioclimatic Variables:
                                                        - Annual precipitation
                                                        - Annual mean temperature
                                                        - Mean temperature of the
                                                          warmest and coldest quarter
                                                        - Altitude

                                                         Climatic Suitability




Niemitz F., Fischer D., Thomas S.M. et al. (in prep.)
Klimaeignung für den Überträger: Aedes albopictus


2011-2040
A1B
                                                      Bioclimatic Variables:
                                                      - Annual precipitation
                                                      - Annual mean temperature
                                                      - Mean temperature of the
                                                        warmest and coldest quarter
                                                      - Altitude

                                                       Climatic Suitability
Klimaeignung für den Überträger: Aedes albopictus


2041-2070
A1B
                                                      Bioclimatic Variables:
                                                      - Annual precipitation
                                                      - Annual mean temperature
                                                      - Mean temperature of the
                                                        warmest and coldest quarter
                                                      - Altitude

                                                       Climatic Suitability
Ae. albopictus
Dengue in Deutschland – gemeldete Fälle 2001-2010

200
                 Bayern
180
                 Baden-Württemberg
160
                 Nordrhein-Westfalen
140              Berlin
120              Hessen
100              Hamburg
80

60

40

20

 0
      2001      2002       2003       2004       2005       2006       2007       2008       2009   2010



             Robert Koch-Institut: SurvStat, http://www3.rki.de/SurvStat, Datenstand: 28.02.2011
Dengue Amplifikation nicht erfüllt
                                                    Vektor Etablierung nicht erfüllt
                                                    Vektor und Pathogen noch suboptimal
                                                    Voraussetzungen für Vektor und Pathogen
                                                    sind optimal erfüllt




Abbildung 1: Modellierung der potenziellen Etablierung des potenten Vektors
Aedes albopictus und der Dengue Amplifikation in Europa für den Zeitraum 2011
bis 2040. Grundlage ist das A1B Klimaszenario des IPCC sowie die hierauf
basierenden 30-jährigen Mittelwerte modellierter Klimazeitreihen. Risikogebiete
sind klar zu erkennen.
GfOe

Invasive mosquitoes such as Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus received much attention
due to the possible expansion of new vector‐borne infectious diseases to Europe. Ae.
albopictus is in a rapid extension of its dispersal area: originally native in South‐East Asia, it
became a “global player” during the last decades and is now widely established in Southern
Europe. This potential vector of various infectious diseases (e.g. Chikungunya, Dengue and
West‐Nile) is listed as one of the 100 “Worlds Worst Invaders”. Moreover, Ae. japonicus was
recently found in Germany and Switzerland.
Especially the interplay between climate change and globalisation is of outmost interest for the
introduction and establishment of these disease vectors. Whereas introduction and spread of
vector species is mostly supported by human activities such as trade and traffic, colonization
and establishment with successful reproduction is mainly dependent on suitable environmental
conditions affected by climate change. Of further interest are the pathogens, which may be
imported by infected travellers coming from endemic areas. A growing number of dengue cases
have been reported at higher latitudes, for instance, as a consequence of increased
international travel and intensified and frequent outbreaks around the world.
Here we modelled a bioclimatic envelope of Ae. albopicuts and connected the results to future
climatic conditions in Europe using regional climate change projections. Furthermore, the
major thermal constraints of dengue virus are estimated and transferred to the expected
future climatic conditions. These results are combined with possible dispersal mechanisms of
vector and pathogen: introduction pathways such as harbours, airports and highways.
Combining climate projections for vector and pathogen and their dispersal mechanisms may
contribute to the identification of risk areas.
Climate Change and Globalization as Drivers
    of Invasive Aedine Disease Vectors

Carl BEIERKUHNLEIN, Stephanie THOMAS, Dominik FISCHER

   Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth
Aedes albopictus
after 2009 ?



                   ?
Aedes albopictus Risk Projection – Expert Knowledge based




Fischer D, Thomas SM, Niemitz F, Reineking B, Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes
albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions. Global Planetary Change 78: 54-64
Dengue Risk Areas




Pathogen temperature restriction based on Watts et al. EIP -> 7d mean 32-35 °C
Thomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virus
amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections. Erdkunde 65: 137-150
Dengue Risk Areas




Pathogen temperature restriction based on Watts et al. 1987 EIP -> 12d > 30 °C
Thomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virus
amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections. Erdkunde 65: 137-150

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Potential Spread of Vector Borne Diseases in Face of Climate Change

  • 1. Potential Spread of Vector Borne Diseases in Face of Climate Change Carl BEIERKUHNLEIN, Stephanie THOMAS, Dominik FISCHER Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, Germany One Health Summit, Davos, CH, 2012
  • 2. Decision Making Beierkuhnlein C & Foken T 2008. Regional Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for the State of Bavaria. BayCEER 113: 500 pp. (in German)
  • 3. Vectors Arthropod vectors for human pathogens are expected to spread due to changes in :  temperature  precipitation Climate Change  climatic variability (extremes)  functional connectivity between continents
  • 4. Case Studies / Diseases Aedes albopictus  Dengue  Chikungunya Phlebotomus spp.  Visceral Leismaniasis
  • 5. 1.) Connect 2.) Identify 3.) Relate to climatic variables / bioclimatic climate change presence records envelopes projections IPCC scenarios Humidity Temperature COSMO CLM REMO WETTREG STAR Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2010: Climate change effects on vector-borne diseases in Europe. Nova Acta Leopoldina 112 (384): 99-107.
  • 6. Ae. albopictus Dengue Virus
  • 7. Aedes albopictus Risk Projection – Geostatistical Fischer D, Thomas SM, Niemitz F, Reineking B, Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions. Global Planetary Change 78: 54-64
  • 8. Shifts in Bioclimatic Envelopes Differences in climatic conditions exposed to Aedes albopictus between its native and its invaded range Native populations (SE Asia) Invasive except Europe Europe Fischer D, Thomas SM, Niemitz F, Reineking B, Beierkuhnlein C 2011: Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions. Global Planetary Change 78: 54-64
  • 9. Aedes albopictus establishment combined with lilkelihood of Dengue amplification dengue amplification unfulfilled Vector establishment unfulfilled Vector almost fulfilled + dengue Vector fulfilled + dengue Thomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virus amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections Erdkunde 65 137-150
  • 10. Aedes albopictus establishment combined with lilkelihood of Dengue amplification dengue amplification unfulfilled Vector establishment unfulfilled Vector almost fulfilled + dengue Vector fulfilled + dengue
  • 11.
  • 12. Current probability of dispersal of Aedes albopictus by ship transport of goods inward EU from infested countries currently
  • 13. Projected probability of dispersal of Aedes albopictus by ship transport of goods inward EU from infested countries Vector requ. Containers In the first half of the century Italian seaports and Bilbao provide climatic suitable conditions for Aedes albopictus, from mid-century on this is true for Hamburg and Rotterdam.
  • 14. Dengue and Chikungunya for 2011 – 2040 period, based on IPCC A1B, geostatistical Dengue Chikungunya
  • 15. Case Studies / Diseases Aedes albopictus  Dengue  Chikungunya Phlebotomus spp.  Visceral Leismaniasis
  • 16. Bioclimatic suitability for Phlebotomus species 70 % training points 30 % test points AUC-values > 0.9 For A1B-scenario and Cosmo CLM regional climate model (based on ECHAM5)
  • 17. Bioclimatic suitability for Phlebotomus species 70 % training points 30 % test points AUC-values > 0.9 Maxent considers „presence only“ points but no For A1B-scenario and Cosmo CLM regional climate model confirmed absence data. (based on ECHAM5)
  • 18. Bioclimatic suitability for Phlebotomus species A1B vs. A2-scenario Cosmo CLM Regional Model Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2010: Temperature-derived potential for the establishment of phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany. Geospatial Health 5(1): 59-69.
  • 19. Bioclimatic suitability for Leishmania infantum A1B vs. A2-scenario Cosmo CLM Regional Model Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2010: Temperature-derived potential for the establishment of phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany. Geospatial Health 5(1): 59-69.
  • 20. Probability of visceral leishmaniasis A1B vs. A2-scenario Cosmo CLM Regional Model Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2010: Temperature-derived potential for the establishment of phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany. Geospatial Health 5(1): 59-69.
  • 21. Moving Targets Arthropod vectors are short-lived and may exhibit evolutionary adaptation to novel environments. Arboviruses show modifications and the development of regional variants too. Average temperature and precipitation values are insufficient proxies – windows of opportunity and limitation must be identified.
  • 22. Challenges • Entomologicial and virological knowledge on climatic constraints (e.g. for serotypes) is limited (for modeling) • New IPCC Scenarios are on the way and will result in new GCMs to be translated into Regional Climate Models • Human vectors (network, hubs, and intensity of transport and travelling activities) are changing too • Human population density and landuse is changing regionally different but this is not yet integrated in models • Reservoir hosts have to be modeled too • Bioclimatic Modeling Algorithms are developing rapidly (BRT, RF, GLM, GAM) – true absence must be considered
  • 23. Publications Fischer D, Moeller P, Thomas S, Naucke, TJ, Beierkuhnlein C (2011) Combining climatic projections and dispersal ability: a method for estimating the responses of sandfly vector species to climate change. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 5(11), e1407 Fischer D, Thomas S, Niemitz F, Reineking, B, Beierkuhnlein C (2011) Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions. Global and Planetary Change, 78 54-64 Thomas S, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T, Beierkuhnlein C (2011) Risk assessment of dengue virus amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections. Erdkunde, 65(2) 137-150 (2011) Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C (2011) Modelling climatic suitability and dispersal for disease vectors: the example of a phlebotomine sandfly in Europe. Procedia Environmental Science 7, 164-169. Fischer D, Thomas S, Beierkuhnlein C (2010) Temperature-derived potential for the establishment of phlebotomine sandflies and visceral leishmaniasis in Germany. Geospatial Health, 5(1), 59-69 (2010) Fischer D, Thomas S, Beierkuhnlein C (2010) Climate Change Effects on Vector-Borne Diseases in Europe. Nova Acta Leopoldina, 112 (384), 99-107 (2010)
  • 24.
  • 25. Ae. albopictus Dengue Virus Humidity Temperature
  • 26. Ae. albopictus Dengue Virus Feuchte Temperatur
  • 27. Ae. albopictus Dengue Virus Feuchte Temperatur ships planes Risk Assessment
  • 28. Phlebotomus perniciosus Potential current distribution / occurrence Probability of occurrence Geostatistical calculations are based on confirmed locations / climatic data. 70 % training points, 30 % test points, AUC-values > 0.9
  • 29. Least-cost path: Cost distance and cost backlink P. perniciosus: current situation to upcoming time-period (2011-2040, A1B scenario) - Cost distance: for orthogonal and diagonal movement - Cost backlink: direction to the value of least costs for each raster cell Fischer D, Thomas SM, Beierkuhnlein C 2011: Modelling climatic suitability and dispersal for disease vectors: the example of a phlebotomine sandfly in Europe. Procedia Environmental Science 3, in press.
  • 30. Cooperation is needed! Feel encouraged to share data and to contribute to the improvement of modeling projections. Medicine Climatology Population Biology Entomology Biogeography Parasitology Ecology Ornithology Virology Human Geography Veterinary Medicine
  • 31. Projected probability of Dengue dispersal by incoming passengers by plane from endemic countries Pathogen requ. Passengers Until the end of the century most airports (excl. nordic countries and UK) exhibit thermal conditions that allow dengue transmission. Thomas S.M., Fischer D., Beierkuhnlein C.,(in prep.)
  • 32. Dengue Incubation Extrinsic incubation period Mosquito Mosquito bites 8 d at 22°C (Blanc) infected Virus can be transferred Days Extrinsic incubation period Mosquito Mosquito bites 12 d at 30°C (Watts) infected Virus can be transferred Days Extrinsic incubation period Mosquito bites 7 d at 32-35°C (Watts) Mosquito infected Virus can be transferred Days
  • 33. Biotic Effects of Global Change Global changes are of many facets that are influencing the decline but also the spread of organisms AND pathogens. Modifications of regional biodiversity patterns are likely to occur.
  • 34. Risk Assessment in Face of Climate Change Interacting responses of organisms AND pathogens have to be considered. Effects of climatic changes AND of increased transport and travelling activities must be integrated. Additionally
  • 35. Projecting Biotic Responses to Climate Change has to consider: • Probabilities of occurrence of windows of opportunity (based on Scenarios, GCMs, Regional CMs) • Human vectors (e.g. transport, travelling intensity, harbors, airports, roads, railways) • Human population density • Physical barriers (relief, DEM)
  • 40. Dengue Risk Areas Pathogen temperature restriction based on Watts et al. -> 7d 32-35 °C Thomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virus amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections Erdkunde 65 137-150
  • 41. Dengue Risk Areas Pathogen temperature restriction based on Blanc –EIP > 8d > 22 °C Thomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virus amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections. Erdkunde 65 137-150
  • 42. Literature Survey 40 multidisciplinary Sciences 35 Geo- and Environmental Sciences Ecology 30 # Publications ISI web of science Biology 25 Entomology Parasitology 20 Veterinary Science 15 Medicine 10 5 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Topic=("dengue*" AND …), Topic=(“DENV" AND …), Topic=("chikungunya*" AND …), Topic=(“CHIKV" AND …), Topic=("west* nil*" AND …), Topic=(“WNV" AND …) ( … AND"climat* chang*" OR "global* chang*" OR "global* warm*")
  • 43. Indirect Impacts Global & Climatic Changes Reservoirs Vectors Pathogens Humans
  • 44. Chikungunya and Dengue Chikungunya Dengue currently Fischer D., Thomas S.M., Fleischmann S. et al. (in prep.)
  • 45. Chikungunya and Dengue Chikungunya Dengue 2011- 2040 A1B
  • 46. Chikungunya and Dengue Chikungunya Dengue 2041- 2070 A1B
  • 47. Impacts of Climate Change Ecosystem Functioning e.g. soil formation carbon cycle photosynthesis herbivory pollination mykorrhiza Biodiversity and Ecological Complexity Ecological Services to Mankind maintenance protection regulation culture • food • flooding • climate • recreation Biological Control • pests • education • potable water • land slides of Diseases • fuel • avalanches • water • aesthetics • etc. • etc. • etc. • etc.
  • 48. Climatic Data Weather Stations in Worldclim http://www.worldclim.com/methods.htm
  • 49. Aedes albopictus Occurrence probability based on current climatic conditions
  • 50. Climate Models, Environmental Envelopes and Future Projections of Vectors and Pathogens In the face of climate change, responses of species distribution patterns to climate warming and modified precipitation regimes are expected. Here, we scrutinize options for the detection of environmental envelopes for Aedes albopictus comparing models that are based on its native range with models that are considering the ecological conditions in its invasive range today. The findings are used for the projection of future distribution patterns, which consider several IPCC scenarios of possible global developments during the 21st century. These projections are showing a spectrum of options for future occurrences of this important vector. Then, we detect temperature requirements of important pathogens such as dengue. By combining the climatic and especially thermal requirements of vectors and pathogens and relating these to the projected climatic conditions, we model geographically explicit spatial distributions of potential risks that may arise during the next decades. Finally, we identify the most important pathways for the spread of vectors such as Aedes albopictus. Human mobility, transport and trade are contributing to distribution of organisms. If climatic niches are developed for vectors AND pathogens during climate change and if the potentially appropriate regions can be accessed or are connected by infrastructure then risks for disease outbreaks have to be detected. Early warning approaches may concentrate on such regions in order to conduct activities in most efficient ways.
  • 52. Klimaeignung für den Überträger: Aedes albopictus currently Bioclimatic Variables: - Annual precipitation - Annual mean temperature - Mean temperature of the warmest and coldest quarter - Altitude Climatic Suitability Niemitz F., Fischer D., Thomas S.M. et al. (in prep.)
  • 53. Klimaeignung für den Überträger: Aedes albopictus 2011-2040 A1B Bioclimatic Variables: - Annual precipitation - Annual mean temperature - Mean temperature of the warmest and coldest quarter - Altitude Climatic Suitability
  • 54. Klimaeignung für den Überträger: Aedes albopictus 2041-2070 A1B Bioclimatic Variables: - Annual precipitation - Annual mean temperature - Mean temperature of the warmest and coldest quarter - Altitude Climatic Suitability
  • 56. Dengue in Deutschland – gemeldete Fälle 2001-2010 200 Bayern 180 Baden-Württemberg 160 Nordrhein-Westfalen 140 Berlin 120 Hessen 100 Hamburg 80 60 40 20 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Robert Koch-Institut: SurvStat, http://www3.rki.de/SurvStat, Datenstand: 28.02.2011
  • 57. Dengue Amplifikation nicht erfüllt Vektor Etablierung nicht erfüllt Vektor und Pathogen noch suboptimal Voraussetzungen für Vektor und Pathogen sind optimal erfüllt Abbildung 1: Modellierung der potenziellen Etablierung des potenten Vektors Aedes albopictus und der Dengue Amplifikation in Europa für den Zeitraum 2011 bis 2040. Grundlage ist das A1B Klimaszenario des IPCC sowie die hierauf basierenden 30-jährigen Mittelwerte modellierter Klimazeitreihen. Risikogebiete sind klar zu erkennen.
  • 58. GfOe Invasive mosquitoes such as Aedes albopictus and Aedes japonicus received much attention due to the possible expansion of new vector‐borne infectious diseases to Europe. Ae. albopictus is in a rapid extension of its dispersal area: originally native in South‐East Asia, it became a “global player” during the last decades and is now widely established in Southern Europe. This potential vector of various infectious diseases (e.g. Chikungunya, Dengue and West‐Nile) is listed as one of the 100 “Worlds Worst Invaders”. Moreover, Ae. japonicus was recently found in Germany and Switzerland. Especially the interplay between climate change and globalisation is of outmost interest for the introduction and establishment of these disease vectors. Whereas introduction and spread of vector species is mostly supported by human activities such as trade and traffic, colonization and establishment with successful reproduction is mainly dependent on suitable environmental conditions affected by climate change. Of further interest are the pathogens, which may be imported by infected travellers coming from endemic areas. A growing number of dengue cases have been reported at higher latitudes, for instance, as a consequence of increased international travel and intensified and frequent outbreaks around the world. Here we modelled a bioclimatic envelope of Ae. albopicuts and connected the results to future climatic conditions in Europe using regional climate change projections. Furthermore, the major thermal constraints of dengue virus are estimated and transferred to the expected future climatic conditions. These results are combined with possible dispersal mechanisms of vector and pathogen: introduction pathways such as harbours, airports and highways. Combining climate projections for vector and pathogen and their dispersal mechanisms may contribute to the identification of risk areas.
  • 59. Climate Change and Globalization as Drivers of Invasive Aedine Disease Vectors Carl BEIERKUHNLEIN, Stephanie THOMAS, Dominik FISCHER Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth
  • 61. Aedes albopictus Risk Projection – Expert Knowledge based Fischer D, Thomas SM, Niemitz F, Reineking B, Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions. Global Planetary Change 78: 54-64
  • 62. Dengue Risk Areas Pathogen temperature restriction based on Watts et al. EIP -> 7d mean 32-35 °C Thomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virus amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections. Erdkunde 65: 137-150
  • 63. Dengue Risk Areas Pathogen temperature restriction based on Watts et al. 1987 EIP -> 12d > 30 °C Thomas S M, Fischer D, Fleischmann S, Bittner T and Beierkuhnlein C 2011 Risk assessment of dengue virus amplification in Europe based on spatio-temporal high resolution climate change projections. Erdkunde 65: 137-150