GRF 2nd One Health Summit 2013: Presentation by Gerhardus Schultink, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources,Michigan State University

1. Risk Characterization and Quantification: An
Operational Perspective on Concepts, Needs
and Opportunities for the Developing World
Gerhardus Schultink,
Professor of International Resource Development and AgBio Research,
College of Agriculture and Natural Resources,
Michigan State University.
East Lansing, MI 48824-1222. USA
Phone: (1) 517-353-1903; Email: schultin@msu.edu

2. GLOBAL LAND RESOURCE PRODUCTIVITY
IMPACTS
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Use intensity and degradation of natural resources
exceeds physically sustainable use rates (water scarcity,
soil erosion and land degradation)
Environmental quality impacts (water and air quality)
Regional decline in food output per capita
Human risk factors (environmentally-induced health
risks)
Food security and nutritional impacts (incl. micronutrients) – availability, affordability, post harvest loss

3. Demand Growing, Supply
Constrained
Demand Side
Supply Side
 Growing population
 Eroding soils
 People moving from a
 Depleting aquifers
plant to animal protein  Grain yields leveling
diet
 Production per capita
 Competition from
reducing regionally
Biofuels turning food
 Rising temperature
into fuel

4. Precarious Global Food Situation
World Grain Production and Consumption,
1960-2011
•
Small margin between
grain consumption and
grain production
Trends:
– increase food
demand
– Conversion from
plant to animal
protein
limit food production
•
–
One sustained drought may result in major
disruption of food balance.
Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Tobias Helbig

5. An Era of Rising Food Prices
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2007-08: Doubling grain and soybean prices - food riots
and unrest in some 60 countries
Prices eased slightly with global recession
2010-11: Another price spike fuel regional unrest
2012: Prices approaching record highs
Food security impacts – disproportionally LDCs
Corn Futures Prices
Wheat Futures Prices
Soybean Futures Prices
Source: CME Group

6. MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS
(directly related to sustainable natural resource
production capacity – RISK reduction priorities)
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Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education
Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women
Goal 4: Reduce child mortality
Goal 5: Improve maternal health
Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases
Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability
Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development

7. THE IMPACTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL
STRESS ON RISK, SECURITY AND QUALITY
OF LIFE
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Resource demand-induced environmental
stress: regional scarcity of food
commodities and basic needs affecting
quality of life
Greater impacts for regions where limited
resource endowment or agro-ecological
and capital constraints form the principal
limiting factors in food production

8. Extreme Food Insecurity

9. Risk Quantification and
Intervention Prioritization
ENVIRONMENTAL
SUBSYTEM and IMPACT
(Baseline conditions)
HUMAN SUB-SYSTEM RISK, Quality-of-Life
(Changes and Trends)
- Economic activity
- Population impacts
- Production Inputs
- Goods & Services
DEMAND
PRESSURE
- Pollution
- Resource
Degradation
- Global Warming
STATE
POLICY RESPONSE
NATIONAL INDICATORS
REGIONAL INDICATORS
GLOBAL INDICATORS
- Ecosystem Quality
- Resource Scarcity
- Production Capacity
- Environmental Quality
- Health / Food Security

10. GLOBAL RISK PRIORITIZATION
FRAMEWORK
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Food security (availability and affordability)
Water scarcity (crop productivity impacts)
Environmental stress and land degradation
Energy scarcity and efficiency
Land access and title security
Long-term climate impact and risk mitigation

11. DECISION MAKING
AND POLICY
IMPLEMENTATION
INDICES – performance
 Comparative Risk Assessment
 Monitoring / Evaluation
 Aggregate Impacts
 Cost-Utility
INDICATORS – prescriptive
 Intervention Opportunities /Cost-Effectiveness
 Incremental cost-effectiveness
 Mitigation Policies
 Thematic Risk Probability
 Population Vulnerabilities
 Environmental Quality
 Health and Food Safety
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT APPROACHES AND
RISK QUALTIFICATION MODELS
 Crop Productivity / Food Security / Safety / Risk
 Climate Change Impact
 Hazard Identification and Risk
 Air Quality / Safety - Risk
 Water Quality / Safety - Risk
 Environmental Impact
COMPREHENSIVE DATA BASE COMPILATION
 Risk Information System (RIS based on GIS structure –
spatial and temporal)
 Primary and Secondary Data Capture
NATIONAL PROBLEM IDENTIFICATION
 Problem Indicators – thematic, quantitative and quantitative measures of
Quality-of-Life
 Need/Risk Indicators – policy intervention needs and opportunities

12. RISK QUANTIFICATION AND
REDUCTION
Environmental Impact and Risk - defines impacts of
development and the associated human exposure and risk
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risk should reflect the broader view of human well-being or quality-oflife
issue of social equity in involuntary environmental risk exposure
risks include pathways of water and air pollution, environmental
disease, occupational health, food safety and traffic safety, etc
expanded risk equation (see also Schultink, 1992 ) as composite, spatial
and temporal indicator of environmental risk R=f (r-factor, probability,
vulnerability, and interventions over time)
n
Rn = ∑ rn x pn x vn – t
i=j

13. Cost-Effective Risk Reduction
Options
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Agricultural-hunger-poverty nexus (availability
and affordability)
Water scarcity on use-efficiency
Land degradation – soil erosion, - fertility and
salinization
Land Tenure, Use Rights, Agrarian Reform
Land Grabbing – cross border interventions
National land policies – cash versus subsistence
crops

14. SOME LOW-HANGING FRUITS
(Farm to Food)
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Rapid productivity increases in marginal agroecological zones (Soil Water Retention
Technology – SWRT)
Food preparation using smokeless stove
technology (e.g. ACE) (energy, health risk)
Reduce post harvest losses (up to 60% in the
humid tropics)

15. New Production and Soil and Water
Conservation Technologies
INTRODUCING SUB-SURFACE WATER
AND NUTRIENT RETENTION
TECHNOLY (SWRT)

16. SWRT: 19 - 22%
Control: 8 - 10%
1.5 to 3.0 mil
polyethylene
membranes
14”
22”
2:1

17. Rear view with rolls of PE membranes positioned for
installation.
Rolls of polyethylene
(PE) membranes
follow transfer tubes
located directly
through the primary
standard connected
to membrane
Installation device
MID shoe.
PE film exiting the
U-shaped exit at
the back of the MID
shoe.

19. Table 1. Corn yields of 353 bushels per acre were 192% greater on
Irrigated SWRT water saving membranes than on irrigated controls
184 bushels/acre without SWRT membranes. Cucumber yields were
146% greater on irrigated SWRT water saving membranes than
irrigated controls without SWRT membranes.
Treatment
Control, no
Corn
15 inch rows
Bushels per a.
Corn
30 inch rows
Bushels per a.
Cucumbers
Kg per acre
membranes
184 (46)*
195 (31)
19,958
Subsurface
353 (26)
269 (20)
29,040
membranes
*Denotes standard deviations from the mean.

20. Water retention membranes installed in pure sand directly
below the root zone of corn, increased cellulosic biomass
of maize grain and stover by 350% above controls with no
water retention membranes. Water use efficiency (WUE)
Increased by 378%.
12
46 T/a
10
34 T/a
8
Kg/m2 6
4
12 T/a
2
0
Control
Polyethylene membranes
25 cm V-shaped 40 cm bowl shaped
with aspect ratios of 2:1

21. HIGH TEMPERATURE
COMBUSTION – BIOMASS USE

22. SOLAR-POWERED BATTERY
AND FAN

23. POST-HARVEST LOSS
REDUCTION
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Improve harvest technology
Storage and drying technology
Reduction of mold contamination
Reduction of animal and nutritional losses
Transportation technology
Processing technology
Packaging
Marketing and distribution