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Mapping the Indian
retail lending
landscape – vol. 2.0
An overview of the sector’s performance,
impact of the COVID-19 second wave in
Q1 FY22 and future trends
February 2022
Message from PwC
Asim Parashar
Partner, Financial Services
PwC India
Dear reader,
It is our pleasure to bring to you PwC’s report on the performance of the retail lending sector in
Q3 FY21 and Q1 FY22.
The report is part of a series of publications focusing on the evolution of India’s retail lending
sector during the COVID-19 pandemic. The last edition of the report covered the initial impact
of the pandemic in the Indian retail lending space. As the sector was recovering from the
pandemic’s first wave, the country underwent a more devasting second wave in April–May
2021. This edition of the report covers the period between December 2020–June 2021 and
analyses the retail lending sourcing and disbursement trends across several parameters like
geography, product and lender type for both sourcing as well as delinquency. This report has
been prepared in collaboration with our partner Equifax. The scope of this edition is limited to
sourcing and delinquency trends in the retail lending market viewed across multiple lenses,
including geographies, sectors, and products, covering in detail the actual mid-term impact of
the pandemic.
While the industry is still plagued by the problems of suboptimal asset quality, we have also
witnessed India becoming a global leader in terms of digital and technological innovation in
the lending space. The pandemic has accelerated the digital transformation journey for lenders
across the board.
As of January 2022, over 150 crore vaccine doses have been administered in India and 47%
of the country’s adult population is fully vaccinated.1
The vaccination drive, coupled with
digitisation adopted by lenders during the pandemic, will enable faster recovery. This will be
a turning point for retail lending in India as financial institutions (FIs) gradually move towards
adapting to newer ways of working and become resilient and agile.
We hope you find this report to be an informative and helpful read.
2 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
1 https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=IND
Message from Equifax
K. M. Nanaiah
Managing Director
Equifax Credit Information Services Pvt Ltd
The year 2020–21 was a challenging one for lenders and borrowers across the country due to the
COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns. Retail loans are the mainstay of the Indian lending
sector. While the impact on the retail portfolio was minimised by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI)
interventions through moratorium and restructuring, some underlying stress continues to exist in the
repayment capacity of borrowers. This, coupled with the strain on the collection efforts, has resulted in
an increased risk of slippages in retail portfolios of Indian lenders.
Equifax, in partnership with PwC, is pleased to bring to you the second edition of ‘Mapping the Indian
retail lending landscape’. This report provides a comparative analysis of the pandemic’s impact on the
Indian retail lending sector and insights into the trends in the Indian retail financial services industry –
from disbursements to delinquencies by geography, product and lender type.
We sincerely believe that this report will provide insights into the lending industry and aid policymakers as
we navigate the post-COVID impact and adopt the recovery strategies and policies for the new normal.
I would like to thank the teams from Equifax and PwC for their efforts in bringing out this report.
3 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
Table of contents
01 Introduction...............................................................................................................05
• Macroeconomic impact of the second wave on the Indian economy
• Retail lending scenario in India
02 Comparative analysis of the impact of COVID waves on Indian retail lending...08
• Geography-wise loan sourcing and delinquency trends
• Product-wise trends
• Loan portfolio based on FI type
03 Key drivers of change...............................................................................................28
• Digitisation in retail lending
• Embedded financing
• Ecosystem buildout
04 Conclusion..................................................................................................................33
4 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
Introduction
01
The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most important events in recent history which has had a profound
impact on the global economy. It has affected global demand and supply worldwide, leading to a short-term
recessionary trend in many countries, and cast a shadow on long-term growth. Both emerging and advanced
economies were severely impacted in 2020 during the pandemic’s first wave and the subsequent economic
recovery was either slowed or severely affected with the outbreak of the second wave in 2021 across all major
countries, including India. Disruptions and decreasing industrial output due to production cuts and workforce
shortages led to business losses and liquidity crunches, resulting in layoffs and pay cuts, and increased
unemployment. Apprehensive attitudes towards economic recovery have severely impacted consumption and
investments. The pandemic-induced macroeconomic downtrends have deeply impacted the banking sector
and the retail lending landscape.
Most countries worldwide have resumed their economic recovery journey post the second wave. The US
economy grew at a rate of 6.7 % in the second quarter of 2021.2
The economy of the European Union (EU) is
also expected to grow by 5.0% annually.3
The Indian economy has also recovered well, registering a 8.4%4
annual growth in the second quarter of FY21.
1.1 Macroeconomic impact of the second wave on the Indian economy
The second wave of the pandemic affected India between the months of April–May 2021, resulting in severe
consequences in the form of exponential growth in cases, reduced supplies of essential treatments, severely
strained health infrastructure, and increased deaths, particularly among the young population.
The second wave had a significant impact on India’s economy as well, though quite different compared to that
of the first wave. For instance, manufacturing and services, which fuel the urban economy, came to a grinding
halt during the first wave while the rural economy continued to function because of less strict lockdowns.
However, during the second wave, the share of COVID-19 cases in rural areas increased, resulting in rural
economic activities being affected.
2 https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2021-advance-estimate
3 https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/au-
tumn-2021-economic-forecast-recovery-expansion-amid-headwinds_en#:~:text=Growth%20in%20the%20EU%20is,eu-
ro%20area)%2C%200.2%20pps.
4 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/EU/Issues/2021/10/20/regional-economic-outlook-for-europe-october-2021
5 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
6 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
5 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021
6 https://theprint.in/economy/imf-projects-12-5-growth-rate-for-india-in-2021-6-9-in-2022/635195/
GDP growth of major world economies
Annual percentage change in real GDP for 2020, 2021 and 2022 (projected)
-3.50%
-6.60%
-9.90%
2.30%
-8.00%
-4.80%
-3.40% -3.30%
6.40%
4.40% 5.30%
8.40%
12.50%
3.30%
4.90%
6.00%
3.60% 3.80%
5.10% 5.60%
6.90%
2.50%
6.10%
4.40%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
US EU UK China India Japan ASEAN Global
2020 2021 2022
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)
The world nearly went into recession in 2020 with the global GDP growth shrinking by 3.3%. The pandemic
led to cessation of activities across major economies, with only China registering a positive economic growth
of merely 2.4%.5
Countries such as Italy and the UK were hit hard by the pandemic and saw major recessionary trends, with
both of them registering 8.9% and 9.9% negative growth respectively.
The economic outlook for 2021 has been optimistic so far, with India projected to grow at 12.5%.6
However,
post the devastating second wave, the projected growth figure has been revised to 9.5%, a correction of 300
basis points.
Unemployment rate in India
7.22
7.76
8.75
28.52
21.73
10.18
7.4
8.35
6.68
7.02
6.5
9.06
6.52
6.89
6.5
7.97
11.84
9.17
6.96
8.32
6.86
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q4 FY20 Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21 Q1 FY22 Q2 FY22
Source: Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE)
Unemployment trends in India
7 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
7 https://unemploymentinindia.cmie.com/
8 Ibid.
9 https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationReportDetails.aspx?UrlPage=&ID=1180
10 Ibid.
11 https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/FsReports.aspx
The unemployment in India increased exponentially during the first wave to a record high of 28.52% in April
2020, eventually decreasing to 21.73% in May 2020.7
The increase in unemployment rate is attributed to the
strict lockdown imposed during this period.
However, during the peak of the second wave in May 2021, the unemployment rate increased to a maximum
of 11.84%. This is less than half the peak unemployment rate during the first wave. A possible reason for the
low unemployment rate during the second wave could be the localised lockdowns which allowed economic
activities to continue in areas with low infection numbers.
Since then, the unemployment rate has come down to pre-COVID levels. The national unemployment rate for
September 2021 was at 6.86%.8
The vaccination rate has increased significantly since the peak of the second
wave. The demand for goods and services has also picked up during the festive season, leading to increased
job opportunities in the Indian market.
1.2 Retail lending scenario in India
• Loans disbursed towards agriculture and allied activities showed an uptick to the tune of 11.4% in June
2021 compared to 2.4% in June 2020.9
• Retail loans – covering housing and vehicle loans – witnessed an accelerated growth of 11.9% in June
2021 compared to 10.4% a year ago.
• Retail credit grew at a year-on-year (YoY) rate of 16.6% up to 2019–20. The present rate of growth in retail
lending is expected to remain below the pre-pandemic levels.
A glance at the provisioning and NPA situation in the Indian banking ecosystem
The gross non-performing assets (GNPA) had peaked in FY18 at 11.2% before falling to 9.1% in FY19 and
further declining to 8.2% in FY20, right before the onset of the pandemic’s first wave.10
However, the ratio of
GNPA came down to 7.5% in September FY21 despite the pandemic and its economic impact. This is due
to the RBI’s six-month moratorium announced during the first wave to cushion the economic impact on retail
borrowers.
The second wave led to further decline in the capacity of retail lenders to repay the loans. As a result, the
NPAs of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) in India are expected to rise to the tune of 9.8% by March 2022
as against 7.5% in March 2021.11
The repayment capacity of lenders is expected to recover from the third
quarter onward with the resumption of economic activities.
8 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
Comparative analysis of the
impact of COVID waves on
Indian retail lending
02
2.1 Geography-wise loan sourcing and delinquency trends
Since the outbreak of the pandemic in India, the country has seen two major waves, spaced roughly one year
apart, during which the number of infections peaked. However, the impact has not been uniform across India
as some states were significantly impacted while others managed the pandemic relatively better. Similarly,
the impact on retail lending has varied across states as well as along the urban-rural divide. In the upcoming
section, we will discuss how the pandemic impacted the retail lending ecosystem in India across various
geographical differences and the factors contributing to this heterogeneous behaviour.
Urban vs rural trends of disbursement
Quarter-wise loan disbursement trends for urban and rural areas
Source: Equifax
Note: Data for retail lending products considered (auto, business, consumer, housing, personal, property, tractor, two-wheeler and
used car loans)
-73%
117%
-2%
23%
-17%
-63%
91%
-4%
21%
-9%
-65%
97%
-1%
22%
-14%
-67%
101%
-1%
22%
-13%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21 Q1 FY22
Urban Rural Semi urban Total
The number of new loans sanctioned decreased significantly across the spectrum with the onset of the
pandemic. There was an overall decrease of 67% during the first quarter of FY21 owing to the lockdown and
limited availability of a robust digital infrastructure.
The recovery in loans sanctioned started to improve from the mid of the second quarter, with September being
the best month in the quarter. However, the stellar growth of 101% in sanctioned loans is largely owed to the
low base effect from the previous quarter. The percentage of new loans sanctioned reached a healthy level of
22% by the fourth quarter owing to the announcement of a breakthrough in COVID-19 vaccines, opening of
major activities of the economy and the commencement of the vaccination programme in India.
The growth in loans sanctioned grew to negative once again in the first quarter of FY22 due to the outbreak
of the second wave. But compared to the average decline of 67%, the decline during the second wave was
much lower at only 13%. From here onward, disbursements have picked up as the vaccination rate increased
and the number of COVID-19 cases declined.
9 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
Percentage distribution of delinquent
accounts by rural/urban area
Urban vs rural trends for delinquency
39%
18%
43%
Urban Rural Semi urban
Percentage distribution of outstanding amount
in delinquent accounts by rural/urban area
Urban Rural Semi urban
50%
14%
36%
Source: Equifax
Note: Data for retail lending products considered (auto, business, consumer, housing, personal, property, tractor, two-
wheeler and used car loans).
The highest number of accounts as well the amount outstanding in accounts that were restructured due to
COVID-19 were the highest in semi-urban areas standing at 47% and 43% respectively.
Such a trend can be attributed to the lockdown which caused the loss of daily/casual jobs in urban areas,
inducing reverse migration of the workforce to their native semi-urban areas.
Percentage distribution of number of
accounts restructured due to COVID-19
Urban Rural Semi urban
36%
21%
43%
Percentage distribution of amount outstanding
in accounts restructured due to COVID-19
Urban Rural Semi urban
23%
30%
47%
Source: Equifax
Note: Data for retail lending products considered (auto, business, consumer, housing, personal, property, tractor, two-
wheeler and used car loans)
Looking at the quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) distribution of accounts in delinquency, the number of accounts in
DPD 90 and DPD 120 is the highest among semi-urban and urban areas.
Such a high rate of delinquency among urban and semi-urban borrowers can be attributed to the higher
dependency of urban household income on manufacturing and service sectors which were more severely
impacted due to the pandemic and the subsequent lockdown, compared to agriculture. Job losses and
reverse migration from urban areas are other two reasons for the high delinquency rate.
QoQ distribution of number of 90 DPD delinquent accounts by rural/urban area
0%
50%
100%
150%
33% 28% 28% 26%
23% 26% 27% 28%
44% 46% 46% 46%
Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21
Urban Rural Semi urban
QoQ distribution of number of 120 DPD delinquent accounts by rural/urban area
Urban Rural Semi urban
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
34% 33.96% 38.54% 30.63%
21% 21.29% 17.69%
23.58%
44% 44.75% 43.77% 45.79%
Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21
Source: Equifax
Note: Data for retail lending products considered (auto, business, consumer, housing, personal, property, tractor, two-
wheeler and used car loans)
10 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
11 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
State-wise trends
State-wise trends for disbursement
Sourcing trends of states with most number of COVID-19 cases
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Maharashtra
Kerala
Karnataka
Tamil
Nadu
Andhra
Pradesh
Uttar
Pradesh
West
Bengal
Delhi
Chattisgarh
Rajasthan
Average
of
top
10
states
Rest
of
India
Q4 FY20 Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21 Q1 FY22
Source: Equifax
Note: Data for retail lending products considered (auto, business, consumer, housing, personal, property, tractor, two-
wheeler and used car loans)
From the sourcing trends, it is evident that although the second wave was more severe than the first, the
impact on lending was lesser compared to the first wave. The average decline in retail lending for the top ten
COVID-19 impacted states during Q1 FY21 was -68.88% compared to 22.19% for Q1 FY22. The average for
the rest of India stood at -65.00% and -15.78% respectively for the same period. This can be attributed to the
fact that robust digital infrastructure was developed during the intervening period by most of the banks.
During the first wave, states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi saw the highest contraction in loan
disbursements, to the tune of 70% and more. During the outbreak of the second wave, states like Kerala and
Chhattisgarh saw over 30% contraction in disbursements.
State-wise trends for delinquency
Loan accounts in delinqency for the top ten COVID-affected states
Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21 Q1 FY22
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Maharashtra
Kerala
Karnataka
Tamil
Nadu
Andhra
Pradesh
Uttar
Pradesh
West
Bengal
Delhi
Chattisgarh
Rajasthan
The number of delinquent accounts skyrocketed during the first wave, compounded by the nationwide
lockdown which extended well into the second quarter of FY21, resulting in reverse migrations and halting of
most economic activities barring the essential ones.
Due to the high number of job losses, a spike in auto-debit failures was also noticed, which indicate the pain
for India’s small borrowers during the pandemic.
Another key attribute that has contributed to the higher delinquency rates is the hindrance to physical
collections. The lack of digital infrastructure during the first wave compounded the problems for those
who had the capacity to pay, but could not, due to severe restrictions in movement. Since then, the digital
infrastructure has been ramped up, which could be one of the major reasons why the delinquency rates for
retails loans was lower during the second wave.
Looking at the growth rates of accounts in delinquency for the top ten affected states, the share of the number
of accounts in delinquency in rural, urban and semi-urban areas remained almost the same during both the
waves.
However, the QoQ delinquency growth from Q4 FY21 to Q1 FY22 was the lowest for rural areas during the first
wave while it was the highest for the same during the second wave. A similar uptick was noticed in the case of
semi-urban areas.
Growth in account delinquency during the
first wave for the top ten affected states
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2.00%
15.53%
4.79%
45.06%
3.91%
39.41%
Rural Urban Semi urban
QoQ growth Percentage of total
Source: Equifax
Growth in account delinquency during the
second wave for the top ten most affected states
QoQ growth Percentage of total
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
8.76%
16.96%
5.14%
43.55%
7.01%
39.49%
Rural Urban Semi urban
12 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
2.2 Product-wise trends
The pandemic has impacted different customer segments differently, affecting both sourcing as well as
delinquency behaviour. In the upcoming section, we have broken down and analysed the sourcing and
delinquency trends across different product types bucketed as auto-related loans, business and personal
loans, and home and property loans.
13 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
2.1.1 Auto-related loans
Disbursement
QoQ number of auto-related loans sourcing and growth rate
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
-
10,00,000
20,00,000
30,00,000
Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22
Two-wheeler loan Auto loan Tractor loan Used car loan Growth
Source: Equifax
The recovery in disbursements which started in Q1 FY21 continued till Q3, but the fear of a second wave and
imminent lockdown had halted the growth with Q1 FY22 disbursement numbers clocking less than 50% of
pre-COVID levels.
Two-wheeler loans lead the number of disbursements with an overall share of 64%. Post the first wave,
consumers are spending more money on purchasing four wheelers with the average ticket size of auto loans
growing year on year (YoY) by 22%, currently standing at INR 6.35 lakh. The lockdown induced reverse
migration of salaried urban youth and subsequent decrease in monthly household expenditure could have
attributed to this trend.
In the tractor loan segment, barring during the onset of the pandemic, there was no radical variation in terms
of the number of tractor loan disbursements. This can be attributed to the higher-than-average rainfall, lower
impact of lockdowns in rural areas and exclusion of agriculture from lockdowns.
14 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
YoY (Q1 FY21 to Q1 FY22) growth rate of
auto-related loans geography wise
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
Rural Semi Urban Urban
Auto loan Tractor loan
Two-wheeler loan Used car loan
Source: Equifax
YoY (Q1 FY21 to Q1 FY22) growth rate of
auto-related loans geography wise
56%
34%
8%
NBFC
Pvt bank
PSU bank
Others
Foreign bank
HFC
2% 0% 0%
Source: Equifax
With customers moving away from public transportation and giving priority to safety and convenience, the
number of auto-related disbursements have gone up by 200% with the highest increase seen in two-wheeler
and used car loans. A higher number of used car loan disbursements was visible across geographies, possibly
indicating these are first-time car buyers, while purchasing a new car has been the trend among urban
customers.
Non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) and private banks with their quicker processing time and wide
distribution network have a combined share of 90% in the auto segment. Private banks have been able to
leverage existing customer relationships and use data and analytics capabilities to provide preapproved
offerings with minimal documentation.
15 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
QoQ growth rate for the number of DPD 90–120 accounts for auto-related loans
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22
Auto loan Two-wheeler loan
Tractor loan Used car loan
Source: Equifax
YoY (Q1 FY21 to Q1 FY22) sector wise number of auto related loans in DPD 90–120 category
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
NBFC PSU bank Pvt bank Others NBFC PSU bank Pvt bank Others
Q1 '22
Q1 '21
Auto loan Tractor loan Two-wheeler loan Used car loan
Source: Equifax
For the QoQ growth rate of delinquent accounts in the DPD 90–120 bucket, there was a dip in the growth
rate in Q1 FY21 and a sharp rise in Q2 and Q3. This sharp rise in delinquent accounts post Q1 FY20 can be
attributed to the end of the moratorium period in August 2020. The highest jump in delinquent accounts was
observed for two-wheeler loans in the semi-urban geography, which can be attributed to the income loss
for blue-collar workers and people working in the manufacturing sector which was significantly affected by
the lockdowns. The work from home (WFH) option provided by major companies and online classes initiated
by almost all educational institutions badly impacted the auto, cab and transportation sector, with assets
lying idle and operators unable to make timely repayments. All this coupled with lower travel requirements of
citizens, driver unavailability and localised lockdowns impacted the transportation industry negatively. With
cashless repayment not reaching the desired level of penetration, a considerable number of lenders still rely
on physical collection which was adversely impacted during the lockdowns.
The NBFC sector has been impacted more in the number of delinquent cases. Localised presence of smaller
NBFCs, lack of a pan-India collection infrastructure and manual recovery processes could be some of the
reasons for this trend.
16 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
Geography wise number of auto related loans in DPD 90-120 category
Auto loan Tractor loan Two-wheeler loan Used car loan
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Rural Semi
urban
Urban
Rural Semi
urban
Urban
Rural Semi
urban
Urban
Rural Semi
urban
Urban
Rural Semi
urban
Urban
Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22
Source: Equifax
QoQ number of personal, consumer and business loans sourced and growth rate
2.1.2 Personal, consumer and business loans
Disbursement
Source: Equifax
-
50,00,000
1,00,00,000
1,50,00,000
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22
Business loan Consumer loan Personal loan
Growth (business loans) Growth (personal and consumer)
The pandemic and subsequent imposition of lockdowns have impacted small and medium enterprises
(SME) owners the most. As state governments started to withdraw restrictions by the end of Q1 FY21, the
subsequent quarter saw a 200% increase in the number of SME business loan sourcing, with sourcing levels
in Q4 reaching two times compared to pre-COVID levels. However, the second wave severely impacted
the business loan demand, with sourcing dropping by more than 50%. Various measures taken by the
Government as a part of its Aatmanirbhar Bharat initiative to spur demand had a positive impact in the
recovery journey post the first lockdown.
The pandemic resulted in 97%12
of the households in the country reporting a decline in household income.
Personal and consumer durable loans were negatively impacted in Q1 FY21 primarily because of the lack of
contactless disbursement capabilities among FIs. However, this segment is picking up pace and is on track
to attain pre-COVID disbursement levels. Even during the second wave, the sourcing of personal loans grew
steadily while other product lines showed muted growth. The growth in personal loans can be attributed to the
increased need-based demand coming in from educational and medical expenses.
FinTech NBFCs have led the charge in digital loan disbursements with smaller ticket sizes, customised
product offerings and faster turnaround.
12 https://www.cmie.com/kommon/bin/sr.php?kall=warticle&dt=20210517161425&msec=876&ver=pf
17 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
YoY (Q1 FY21 to Q1 FY22) growth rate of personal, consumer and business loans geography wise
Source: Equifax
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Rural Semi urban Urban
Business loan Consumer loan Personal loan
Consumer and personal loans have shown significant growth across geographies from the first wave till now.
The demand for business loans has come down by 30% in rural areas and remained the same in semi-urban
locations. With the prolonged lockdowns during the second wave, non-essential businesses were completely
closed, thereby reducing the demand for business loans.
Source: Equifax
PSU bank Others Pvt bank
NBFC Foreign bank HFC
57%
18%
13%
12%
0% 0%
Share of business loan disbursement as
on Q1 FY22
Source: Equifax
83%
16%
1% 0% 0% 0%
NBFC Pvt bank PSU bank
Others Foreign bank HFC
Share of personal and consumer loan
disbursement as on Q1 FY22
PSU banks have been key for pushing various Government schemes targeted at micro, small and medium
enterprises (MSMEs). During the first wave, the Government had launched multiple schemes to help MSMEs
tide over the crisis. Some of these schemes are the Credit Linked Capital Subsidy Scheme (CLCSS), overdraft
interest rate rebate, collateral free loans and Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS). The 57%
share of PSUs in business loan disbursement is a testimony to the fact that PSU banks have played a key role
in ensuring that these schemes reach end users.
NBFCs have the highest share of personal and consumer durable loans. During the first wave, NBFCs and
FinTechs were able to make quick changes in their existing processes and policies, and provide end-to-end
digital experience to customers, thereby increasing efficiency and ensuring disbursement without face-to-face
interaction. The period also saw the emergence of an increased number of FinTech NBFC players, especially
in the personal loans and consumer durable space, providing a variety of targeted offerings to customers,
including buy now pay later (BNPL) and credit line-based offerings. FinTech NBFCs saw increased disbursement
but the average ticket size has decreased to 9,000. This segment saw 30% growth during the COVID period,
with customers adopting mobile-only zero-contact offerings from FinTech players.
Delinquency
QoQ growth rate for the number of DPD 90–120 accounts for business, consumer and personal loans
-200%
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22
Business loan Consumer loan Personal loant
Geography wise number of personal, consumer and business loans in DPD 90–120 category
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22
Rural Semi
urban
Urban Rural Semi
urban
Urban Rural Semi
urban
Urban Rural Semi
urban
Urban Rural Semi
urban
Urban
Source: Equifax
Delinquency cases were observed to be the highest in low ticket size loans like consumer and personal
loans. The dependence on the manufacturing sector and agricultural income, and the subsequent reduction
in household income during lockdowns can be attributed to the higher delinquency among the rural and
semi-urban population. Fintech NBFCs, who have been leading the disbursements in the unsecured personal
loans and consumer durable category with digital offerings like BNPL, have borne the maximum brunt.
Business loans which have much more stringent credit policies coupled with physical verifications saw lower
delinquencies. Also, this segment has better customer stickiness with customers opting for repeat loans,
which might also be a contributing factor.
18 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
19 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
YoY (Q1 FY21 to Q1 FY22) sector-wise change in the number of loans in the DPD 90–120 category
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Business loan Consumer loan Personal loan
Foreign
bank
NBFC PSU bank Pvt bank Others Foreign
bank
NBFC PSU bank Pvt bank Others
Q1 '21 Q1 '22
QoQ number of home loans and LAP sourced and growth rate
2.1.3 Home loans and LAP
Disbursement
Source: Equifax
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22
Housing loan Property loan Growth home loan Growth property loan
With uncertainties around the pandemic and an impending next wave, the demand for housing had declined
to almost 60% during the first wave. The fall in interest rates coupled with various state governments reducing
the stamp duty gave the much-needed push to home buyers and the demand increased continuously from Q2
FY20 and sourcing saw double digit growth till Q4 FY20, with 30% more disbursements in Q4 FY20 compared
to the pre-COVID levels.
However, Q1 FY21 saw the demand crashing down by 50%. Onset of the second wave, lockdown-induced
restrictions, unavailability of labour and increase in the price of raw materials could have contributed to
customers postponing their purchase decisions.
20 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
YoY (Q1 FY21 to Q1 FY22) growth rate of home and property loans (geography wise)
Source: Equifax
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Rural Semi urban Urban
Housing loan Property loan
Demand for both home and property loans saw an uptick across geographies.
The average ticket size for home loans has gone up by 14%. The extension of WFH could be one of the
reasons behind the increased need for spaciousness among consumers. The average ticket size for LAP has
gone down by 7%, with businesses focusing on survival rather than expansion.
21 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
Source: Equifax
Share of business loan disbursement as
on Q1 FY22
46%
32%
14%
4%
3%
0%
Others NBFC Foreign bank
PSU bank Pvt bank
HFC
Source: Equifax
Share of personal and consumer loan
disbursement as on Q1 FY22
Others NBFC PSU bank
Foreign bank
Pvt bank
HFC
51%
19%
17%
6%
5%
0%
PSU banks were the first to pass on the benefit of reduced interest rates to their customers. Such banks
(followed by housing finance companies [HFCs]) lead the home loan segment with reduced interest rates and
a wide distribution network. Leading PSU banks have also launched credit score based differential interest
rate schemes where customers with higher credit scores (>750) are offered better interest rates.
In the case of loan against property (LAP), the primary consumers are small business owners who often
don’t prefer going through the detailed documentation process and opt for an HFC or a private bank which
disburses the loan amount faster. HFCs and private banks have a combined share of 70% in this segment.
Delinquency
QoQ growth rate of DPD 90–120 accounts for home and property loans
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22
Housing loan Property loan
22 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
Geography wise number of personal, consumer and business loans in the DPD 90–120 category
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22
Rural Semi
urban
Urban Rural Semi
urban
Urban Rural Semi
urban
Urban Rural Semi
urban
Urban Rural Semi
urban
Urban
Housing loan Property loan
YoY (Q1 FY 21 to Q1 FY22) sector-wise change in the number of loans in the DPD 90–120 category
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Housing loan Property loan
HFC NBFC PSU bank Pvt bank Others HFC NBFC Pvt bank Others
AMJ '20 AMJ '21
PSU bank
Source: Equifax
With small business owners being the primary consumers of property loans and their livelihoods being
adversely affected by the pandemic, this segment saw a 165% growth in delinquency compared to pre-COVID
levels. Most of the impact was observed in the urban and semi-urban geographies where the lockdowns were
much harsher.
The HFC and PSU sectors which have the highest share of home loans have shown an uptick in the number of
delinquent cases.
23 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
2.3 Loan portfolio based on FI type
While the impact of the pandemic was felt across the industry and all types of FIs were affected, the impact
was not the same for all categories of institutions. Even for similar product lines, the behaviour in sourcing and
delinquency has greatly differed for different lenders.
0.08% 1.59%
2.12%
13.50%
16.61%
Others
NBFC PSU bank
Foreign bank
Pvt bank HFC
66.10%
Distribution of loans sourced across FIs
in FY22
Source: Equifax
The impact of the first wave led to a decline
in demand for loans across all FIs. Foreign
banks were the worst hit with approximately
80% decline in the number of loans sourced
compared to the pre-COVID months owing to
the concentration of portfolios primarily in the
urban and semi-urban regions which were worst
affected by lockdowns.
PSBs, with a decline of approximately 10% in the
total number of loans sourced, fared better than
their counterparts during the first wave.
Q2 and Q3 FY21 marked a recovery period
for all FIs as the number of cases declined,
the vaccination drive gathered speed and
customer demand increased. However, only
PSBs witnessed a growth of 78% compared
to pre-COVID sourcing while demand for loans
from private banks, NBFCs and foreign banks
remained lower compared to the pre-COVID
months.
Source: Equifax
Note: Data for retail lending products considered (auto, business, consumer, housing, personal, property, tractor, two-wheeler and
used car loans)
Distribution of new loans sourced based on the type of FIs
0
10
20
30
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22
Foreign bank HFC + NBFC Others PSU bank Pvt bank Growth – HFC + NBFC
Growth – foreign bank Growth – others Growth – PSU bank Growth – pvt bank
With the onset of the second wave, the total number of loans sourced declined across all FIs in Q1 FY22.
Except for PSBs (approximately 50% QoQ decline), the QoQ decline in sourcing in the second wave was
lesser compared to the first wave in the wake of localised measures implemented for containing the spread.
However, the complete impact of the second wave will become clearer in Q2 FY22 due to demand driven by
the festive season.
24 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
Portfolio distribution of FIs (June 2020)
Portfolio distribution of FIs across geographies
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
4% 8%
24% 21% 18%
17%
42%
45% 46%
38%
79%
50%
31% 33%
44%
Foreign bank HFC NBFC PSU bank Pvt bank
Rural Semi urban Urban
Source: Equifax
Portfolio distribution of FIs (June 2021)
Rural Semi urban Urban
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
4%
11%
24% 27%
20%
25%
48%
46%
49%
42%
71%
41%
30% 23%
38%
Foreign Banks HFC NBFC PSUs Pvt bank
Among FIs, the primary lending focus for foreign banks has been the urban and semi-urban regions. Over the
course of the year, they have increased their presence in the semi-urban areas.
The share of loans for HFCs and private banks have diversified into both rural and semi-urban areas.
For NBFCs, their geography-wise share has remained almost the same.
Almost 50% of the loan disbursements for PSBs are in semi-urban areas with a YoY growth of 6% for rural
areas.
Comparative analysis of loans sourced by FIs across the COVID-19 waves
Number
of
loans
sourced
-
20,00,000
40,00,000
60,00,000
80,00,000
1,00,00,000
Percentage
growth
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
Pre-COVID COVID wave 1 COVID wave 2
Rural Semi urban Urban Rural Semi urban Urban Rural Semi urban Urban
Foreign bank HFC NBFC Pvt bank
PSU bank
Growth – foreign bank Growth – HFC Growth – NBFC Growth – PSU bank Growth – pvt bank
Source: Equifax
Note: Data for retail lending products considered (auto, business, consumer, housing, personal, property, tractor, two-wheeler and
used car loans)
Sourcing for all FIs except PSBs fared better during the second wave compared to the first due to a more
robust digital infrastructure and higher consumer demand. While the first wave witnessed a decline of
approximately 70% for all FIs across rural, semi-urban and urban areas except PSBs, the second wave had
a varied impact on lending recovery. Compared to the pre-COVID period, disbursements remained lowest
for foreign banks with the rural portfolio being the worst hit owing to the larger impact of the second wave
felt across rural areas. Disbursements by NBFCs, PSBs and private banks fell by approximately 30–40%
compared to pre-COVID levels. Urban areas were impacted the most owing to a higher number of cases,
localised lockdowns and a drastic slowdown in economic activities.
25 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
26 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
Distribution of loan ticket sizes across different FIs (as on June 2021)
Source: Equifax
Note: Data for retail lending products considered (auto, business, consumer, housing, personal, property, tractor, two-wheeler and
used car loans)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Foreign bank HFC NBFC Others PSU bank Pvt bank
0-50K 10L-15L 15L-25L 1L-2L 25L-75L 2L-4L 4L-10L 50k-1L +75L
Both the waves led to a shift in the borrowing behaviour pattern with a transition towards need-based low
ticket sized loans for purposes like medical emergencies, health insurance purchase and rental deposits. The
rise of new-age lending platforms and FinTech players further accelerated the rise of small-ticket loans.
Owing to the high growth in low ticket sized personal loans, a majority of the loans sourced across FIs in Q1
FY22 have ticket sizes below INR 10 lakh. While approximately 85% of the loans disbursed by NBFCs have
ticket sizes below INR 50K, approximately 70% of the loans sourced by private banks were below INR 1 lakh.
Ticket sizes for a majority of the loans disbursed by PSBs ranged from INR 2–10 lakh.
27 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
FI wise distribution of DPD (0–90)
-
50,00,000
1,00,00,000
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22
Foreign bank HFC NBFC Pvt bank
PSU bank Growth – foreign bank
Growth – HFC + NBFC Growth – others Growth – PSU bank Growth – pvt bank
FI wise distribution of DPD (90–120)
Foreign bank HFC NBFC Pvt bank
PSU bank Growth – foreign bank
Growth – HFC + NBFC Growth – others Growth – PSU bank Growth – pvt bank
-
5,00,000
10,00,000
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22
Source: Equifax
Note: Data for retail lending products considered (auto, business, consumer, housing, personal, property, tractor, two-wheeler and
used car loans)
The number of cases in the softer delinquency buckets witnessed a growth in Q2 FY21 across all FIs (highest
being for foreign banks) except private banks after the first wave. This was primarily due to the end of the
moratorium period in August 2020 and an estimated 121 million job losses which affected the repayment
behaviour of borrowers and reduced the collections efficiency owing to restricted movements across the
country. Post a recovery period of almost two quarters, the number of delinquent cases further grew in Q1
FY22 owing to the impact of the second wave on borrowers’ economic activity.
Owing to the impact of the first wave, a high number of accounts slipped into the 90–120 DPD bucket in Q3
FY21, with the highest QoQ growth in delinquencies recorded for NBFCs, private banks and foreign banks.
This was primarily due to the liquidity crunch faced by mid- and low-income high-risk borrowers, who form a
majority of the non-traditional customer base of the NBFCs, in the wake of the pandemic.
28 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
03 Key drivers of change
The retail lending scenario has evolved with the onset and continuation of the pandemic, and incumbents
are now facing increased competition from new-age NBFCs. New players, equipped with end-to-end digital
processing capabilities and ensuring a quicker turnaround time, are reaching out to prime borrowers, the key
target segment of traditional lenders. Retail lenders need to identify key drivers of change and adopt it in their
ways of doing business for sustainable competitive advantage.
3.1 Digitisation in retail lending
The first and second waves have provided impetus to both financial organisations and regulators to digitise
existing lending journeys with the aim of bringing operational efficiencies to a larger customer base. As per
the PwC-Equifax Survey conducted in May 2021,13
in the wake of the first wave, 29% credit managers and
executives highlighted digital transformation as a core focus area while 25% were focusing on customer
experience. Initiatives taken by both FIs and regulators corroborate the identified focus areas.
Initiatives by FIs
• Digitisation in customer acquisition: Lenders, big and small, have adopted redefined KYC norms
enabled through E2E video-KYC process, virtual sales assistance and contactless process for completing
the customer-borrowing journey and machine learning (ML) based banking analysis to build a digital
lending infrastructure in the pandemic. Players in the space of providing video-KYC tools have witnessed
exponential growth owing to the focus on digitisation across the lending landscape. Additionally, new
players are making headways into the Indian lending market with unique use cases like virtual property
valuations and analytics for further reducing manual intervention across the entire lending journey.
• Mobile first: With the total number of smartphone users in India is poised to reach 83 crore by 2022,14
India will be giving stiff competition to China for the position of the country with the highest number of
smartphone users. Customers are now accustomed to executing complex tasks and transactions using
their mobile devices and expect to be able to utilise a full range of banking services using such channels.
Lenders must not add mobile only as an additional channel, but also focus on tailoring customer journeys
and aligning expectations during the product-creation process as well. Capabilities need to be developed
for identifying customers’ preferred mode of communicating with the FI responding to their needs via their
preferred channel. In 2020, FinTech NBFCs accounted for 45%15
of all personal loans disbursed. This
shows how comfortable the current crop of loan seekers are when it comes to availing digital financial
services as the solutions/apps are tailor-made and the customer journeys are intuitive.
13 https://www.pwc.in/assets/pdfs/consulting/financial-services/mapping-the-indian-retail-lending-landscape.pdf
14 https://www.iamai.in/KnowledgeCentre
15 https://www.sidbi.in/files/announcements/Fintech-Pulse-Vol-II.pdf
29 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
Underwriting transformation
A dramatic increase in the low ticket size unsecured lending across FIs post the COVID waves has meant a
transition away from the traditional underwriting data sources through primarily two main modes of operations:
• Data transformation leveraging advanced analytics: Refining the existing data models for advanced use
cases like E2E customer lifecycle management and supply chain management or credit default prediction
while leveraging extensively emerging technologies like ML to increase the accuracy and predictive
capability of analytical models.
• FinTech partnerships: Strategic partnerships with niche FinTech players providing access to alternative
data sources like assets related data of consumers and online transaction data of consumers.
Communication data
• Mobile usage
• Data usage
• Location data
• Identification check
• Roaming information
• Behavioural data
• Social profile data
E-commerce, payments
and travel data
• Consumption patterns
• Income proxy
• Demographics
• Identification check
• Contact information
Financial data
• Payment behaviour
(EMIs, premiums)
• Debt consolidation
• Asset holdings
• Contact information
• Identification checks
• Income data
One of the largest rural
NBFCs
Use of alternative as well as
bureau data for underwriting
and development of partner
data models is underway
Challenger NBFC providing
instant personal loans
Data being leveraged for
EWS platform adoption
with widespread use of
communication data for
customer profiling
Financial data
Leading BNPL and credit
platform
Illustrative data models used by financial players
• Contactless collections: During the first and second waves, reduction in collections efficiency due
to restricted personnel movement and limited availability of physical collections channels were the
key challenges faced by small lenders. This has led to a conscious push towards digital payments
for collections and technology initiatives like hyper-personalised AI-driven virtual chatbots for driving
contactless collections and reducing the turnaround time (TAT) and process cost. Use of technology is
enabling players to automate collections, support customer queries, manage outbound collections calls
and assist customers in making digital payments for collections.
• Virtual servicing: The pandemic has accelerated the growth of contextualised remote servicing for
borrowers to reduce the overall time for customer query resolution. FIs are looking to leverage customer
data analytics and extensive product and customer driven segmentation to provide services in the most
effective way.
30 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
Complexity
of
interaction
Customer value/size of customer
Medium
Medium
High
High
Primary channels
offered and channel
promoted to
customers
Special focus
Self-service Special focus
All channels,
human touch
D B A
C
F
E
Low
Low
1
2
3
2
3
4
3
4
2
3
4
3
4
5
4
5
5
I
n
c
r
e
a
s
i
n
g
v
i
r
t
u
a
l
c
h
a
n
n
e
l
s
I
n
c
r
e
a
s
i
n
g
h
u
m
a
n
c
h
a
n
n
e
l
s
Source: PwC analysis
List of channels
1. Dedicated branch
2. Sales visit/call
3. Call centre
4. Correspondence
5. Self-service/chatbot
Channel segmentation for optimisation of interaction time along borrowers’ journey
Key regulator and Government driven interventions
• Know Your Customer Guidelines, 2020: The RBI introduced the Video based Customer Identification
Process (V-CIP) on 10 May 2021, an alternative method of customer identification with facial recognition
and customer due diligence by an authorised official of the Regulated Entity (RE). The central bank
also amended its 2016 Master Direction on Know Your Customer (KYC) on 9 January 2020 as well as
introduced Digital KYC. All REs will have to mandatorily conduct e-KYC if online verification is not possible.
However, only banks are allowed to capture video KYC. Other NBFCs will have to adhere to the traditional
methods of KYC as stated in the 2016 circular.
• Payment ecosystem: The regulator has laid the foundations for creating a framework around FinTechs and
also created a separate FinTech department which will help in regulating the sector. Currently, the sector
remains largely unregulated. The framework would also help in addressing the challenges in the current
ecosystem. These developments would help in creating a legal and regulatory structure within which
FinTechs/digital lending institutions can operate and thrive.
• Federated consent architecture: A joint public-private initiative for streamlining data governance by
providing users control over their data and allowing seamless sharing which can thereby be leveraged by
players for a smooth and intelligent lending journey for borrowers. The account aggregator (AA) framework
is one such initiative which will democratise credit by enabling individuals to access, aggregate and share
financial data within the network of FIs which are a part of the AA framework.
31 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
3.2 Embedded financing
As per the PwC-Equifax Survey 2021, the most preferred alternative for business growth was product
and service innovation with 29% of the respondents choosing the same. This is reflected in the changing
landscape of lending product variants with multiple FIs transitioning towards embedded lending for
diversifying their sourcing channels. Lenders are offering financial products embedded into the
interconnected ecosystem through partnerships with players in sectors like education and healthcare to offer
specific need-based products.
In order to truly capitalise on the strengths of embedded lending, FIs need to internally look at their
capabilities, existing product lines and value chain, and identify areas where collaborating with ecosystem
players can create more value than building or buying. Some of these systems and capabilities are too costly
for a lending focused organisation to build and maintain.
BNPL, a key embedded lending model, is gaining traction in the post pandemic lending landscape. It provides
targeted offerings for millennials and younger customers aimed at breaking down bulk cash outflows into
low-cost EMIs through bite-sized credit. BNPL products are becoming popular in India with the growth of
e-commerce as well as internet and smartphone penetration. Market leaders expect BNPL products to scale
up further with BNPL payments in the country expected to grow by 72.7% annually to reach USD 6,327.2
million in 2021.16
The growing popularity of the low-cost product has also pushed large private sector players
to foray into the space.
In light of the gaining popularity of embedded lending, the Government is also providing impetus to
application programming interfaces (APIs) driven lending through the AA framework. AA can provide
consent-based access to a customer’s banking history to digital lenders, thus enabling a differentiated
lending experience, especially for MSMEs and new-to-credit borrowers who lack access to formal credit.
The marketplaces and aggregator models, easily accessible through new-age FinTech platforms and apps
as per their need for different customer segments, are expected to lead to the opening up of an entirely new
paradigm of embedded lending in the retail lending landscape.
3.3 Ecosystem buildout
In a highly competitive landscape of approximately 10,000 NBFCs and banks, FIs have recognised the need
for providing collaborative ecosystem-driven lending avenues and leveraging the network effects of players in
the ecosystem for higher penetration of lending products. Ecosystem-driven lending can be enabled by two
key mechanisms:
1. strategic partnerships with players in the lending ecosystem, e.g. HFCs partnering with FinTechs for
providing alternative data for underwriting
2. embedding NBFC financing in the overall ecosystem for the product offerings, e.g. providing rental deposit
financing in collaboration with players providing rent agreement registration services.
Ecosystem players across lending products, namely payment partners, direct sales agents, property
aggregators/brokers, real estate agents, builders, and acquisition and collections facilitators provide access to
unique data-driven insights into FIs that can be leveraged for higher penetration, robust underwriting models
and improved customer servicing for both existing and prospective borrowers.
16 https://www.pwc.in/assets/pdfs/consulting/financial-services/mapping-the-indian-retail-lending-landscape.pdf
Financial ecosystem
Existing customers New customers Ecosystem players
Direct sales agents,
DMAs and real estate agents
Aggregators and
Physical operations continue to
Integrations and partnerships driven marketplaces
reduce with automation of the value
new distribution channels
chain enhancing CX
Supply chain players, e.g.
dealers on auto loans
Payment partners
Credit
Products and Brokers, builders for home
assessment and
offerings and property partners
decisioning
Loyalty and Government agencies like
Ecosystem Pricing
rewards smart city ecosystem for
Managed services capability on smart city financing
the cloud, reducing on-site
infrastructure Payments Insurance Retail and e-commerce
players
Ecosystem integration platform
Ancillary service providers
like insurance wealth
Ecosystem-driven lending
Source: PwC analysis
32 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
33 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
04 Conclusion
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about unprecedented business challenges, with significant
macroeconomic impact on organisations in India and worldwide. FIs have been reeling under the impact of
the pandemic for the past few quarters, with full repercussions likely to be felt in the coming years as well.
Sourcing, which was severely impacted during the first wave, showed signs of recovery in the subsequent
quarters. FIs embracing digital adoption in the lending processes was one of the key contributing factors for
the increased sourcing numbers. This development has changed the way lenders looked at the traditional
ways of banking and compelled them to be agile and adopt digital processes, with newer business models
and technologies being adopted more than ever before. The rapid use of digital solutions and digital
transformation of businesses has helped lenders to operate effectively in the new normal. However, it is
also important for institutions to be wary of the various security threats that accompany digitalisation and
constantly assess and track the risks that they carry.
With the accelerated pace of vaccination and better preparedness among citizens and corporates, India now
has a better chance of efficiently handling future waves of the pandemic. The third wave, though sizeable
in terms of the number of cases, might not disrupt economic activity fully. Since economic activities have
now resumed at nearly pre-COVID levels, lenders need to prioritise identifying and arresting of portfolio
vulnerabilities at an early stage while filling the enormous credit gap. Moratoriums given to the customers can
possibly impact their repayment behaviour, and this is where customer connect and engagement becomes
imperative.
With customers adopting digital channels and digital banking rapidly, lenders must innovate and create
solutions that fit into the customer context. Customers are no longer only looking for financial products, and
lenders must find ways to customise and fit offerings as a part of the overall ecosystem which addresses
larger customer problems. FIs need to focus on serving customers through their channels of choice and with
relevant products and value-added services. While digital channels would be key going forward, FIs need
to correctly identify how to achieve the human touch and personalisation while serving through contactless
channels.
34 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
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Contact us
Asim Parashar
Partner, Financial Services
PwC India
asim.parashar@pwc.com
Ripunjay Gauttam
Principal Consultant, Financial Servcies
PwC India
ripunjay.gautam@pwc.com
Contributors
Akhil M, Senior Associate, PwC India
Sounak Ghosh, Senior Associate, PwC India
Editorial support
Dion D’Souza
Saptarshi Dutta
Design
Kirtika Saxena
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Number or CIN : U74140WB1983PTC036093), which is a member firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited (PwCIL), each
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mapping-the-indian-retail-lending-landscape-vol-2-0.pdf

  • 1. Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape – vol. 2.0 An overview of the sector’s performance, impact of the COVID-19 second wave in Q1 FY22 and future trends February 2022
  • 2. Message from PwC Asim Parashar Partner, Financial Services PwC India Dear reader, It is our pleasure to bring to you PwC’s report on the performance of the retail lending sector in Q3 FY21 and Q1 FY22. The report is part of a series of publications focusing on the evolution of India’s retail lending sector during the COVID-19 pandemic. The last edition of the report covered the initial impact of the pandemic in the Indian retail lending space. As the sector was recovering from the pandemic’s first wave, the country underwent a more devasting second wave in April–May 2021. This edition of the report covers the period between December 2020–June 2021 and analyses the retail lending sourcing and disbursement trends across several parameters like geography, product and lender type for both sourcing as well as delinquency. This report has been prepared in collaboration with our partner Equifax. The scope of this edition is limited to sourcing and delinquency trends in the retail lending market viewed across multiple lenses, including geographies, sectors, and products, covering in detail the actual mid-term impact of the pandemic. While the industry is still plagued by the problems of suboptimal asset quality, we have also witnessed India becoming a global leader in terms of digital and technological innovation in the lending space. The pandemic has accelerated the digital transformation journey for lenders across the board. As of January 2022, over 150 crore vaccine doses have been administered in India and 47% of the country’s adult population is fully vaccinated.1 The vaccination drive, coupled with digitisation adopted by lenders during the pandemic, will enable faster recovery. This will be a turning point for retail lending in India as financial institutions (FIs) gradually move towards adapting to newer ways of working and become resilient and agile. We hope you find this report to be an informative and helpful read. 2 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape 1 https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=IND
  • 3. Message from Equifax K. M. Nanaiah Managing Director Equifax Credit Information Services Pvt Ltd The year 2020–21 was a challenging one for lenders and borrowers across the country due to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns. Retail loans are the mainstay of the Indian lending sector. While the impact on the retail portfolio was minimised by the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) interventions through moratorium and restructuring, some underlying stress continues to exist in the repayment capacity of borrowers. This, coupled with the strain on the collection efforts, has resulted in an increased risk of slippages in retail portfolios of Indian lenders. Equifax, in partnership with PwC, is pleased to bring to you the second edition of ‘Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape’. This report provides a comparative analysis of the pandemic’s impact on the Indian retail lending sector and insights into the trends in the Indian retail financial services industry – from disbursements to delinquencies by geography, product and lender type. We sincerely believe that this report will provide insights into the lending industry and aid policymakers as we navigate the post-COVID impact and adopt the recovery strategies and policies for the new normal. I would like to thank the teams from Equifax and PwC for their efforts in bringing out this report. 3 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
  • 4. Table of contents 01 Introduction...............................................................................................................05 • Macroeconomic impact of the second wave on the Indian economy • Retail lending scenario in India 02 Comparative analysis of the impact of COVID waves on Indian retail lending...08 • Geography-wise loan sourcing and delinquency trends • Product-wise trends • Loan portfolio based on FI type 03 Key drivers of change...............................................................................................28 • Digitisation in retail lending • Embedded financing • Ecosystem buildout 04 Conclusion..................................................................................................................33 4 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
  • 5. Introduction 01 The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most important events in recent history which has had a profound impact on the global economy. It has affected global demand and supply worldwide, leading to a short-term recessionary trend in many countries, and cast a shadow on long-term growth. Both emerging and advanced economies were severely impacted in 2020 during the pandemic’s first wave and the subsequent economic recovery was either slowed or severely affected with the outbreak of the second wave in 2021 across all major countries, including India. Disruptions and decreasing industrial output due to production cuts and workforce shortages led to business losses and liquidity crunches, resulting in layoffs and pay cuts, and increased unemployment. Apprehensive attitudes towards economic recovery have severely impacted consumption and investments. The pandemic-induced macroeconomic downtrends have deeply impacted the banking sector and the retail lending landscape. Most countries worldwide have resumed their economic recovery journey post the second wave. The US economy grew at a rate of 6.7 % in the second quarter of 2021.2 The economy of the European Union (EU) is also expected to grow by 5.0% annually.3 The Indian economy has also recovered well, registering a 8.4%4 annual growth in the second quarter of FY21. 1.1 Macroeconomic impact of the second wave on the Indian economy The second wave of the pandemic affected India between the months of April–May 2021, resulting in severe consequences in the form of exponential growth in cases, reduced supplies of essential treatments, severely strained health infrastructure, and increased deaths, particularly among the young population. The second wave had a significant impact on India’s economy as well, though quite different compared to that of the first wave. For instance, manufacturing and services, which fuel the urban economy, came to a grinding halt during the first wave while the rural economy continued to function because of less strict lockdowns. However, during the second wave, the share of COVID-19 cases in rural areas increased, resulting in rural economic activities being affected. 2 https://www.bea.gov/news/2021/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2021-advance-estimate 3 https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/au- tumn-2021-economic-forecast-recovery-expansion-amid-headwinds_en#:~:text=Growth%20in%20the%20EU%20is,eu- ro%20area)%2C%200.2%20pps. 4 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/EU/Issues/2021/10/20/regional-economic-outlook-for-europe-october-2021 5 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
  • 6. 6 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape 5 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/10/12/world-economic-outlook-october-2021 6 https://theprint.in/economy/imf-projects-12-5-growth-rate-for-india-in-2021-6-9-in-2022/635195/ GDP growth of major world economies Annual percentage change in real GDP for 2020, 2021 and 2022 (projected) -3.50% -6.60% -9.90% 2.30% -8.00% -4.80% -3.40% -3.30% 6.40% 4.40% 5.30% 8.40% 12.50% 3.30% 4.90% 6.00% 3.60% 3.80% 5.10% 5.60% 6.90% 2.50% 6.10% 4.40% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% US EU UK China India Japan ASEAN Global 2020 2021 2022 Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) The world nearly went into recession in 2020 with the global GDP growth shrinking by 3.3%. The pandemic led to cessation of activities across major economies, with only China registering a positive economic growth of merely 2.4%.5 Countries such as Italy and the UK were hit hard by the pandemic and saw major recessionary trends, with both of them registering 8.9% and 9.9% negative growth respectively. The economic outlook for 2021 has been optimistic so far, with India projected to grow at 12.5%.6 However, post the devastating second wave, the projected growth figure has been revised to 9.5%, a correction of 300 basis points. Unemployment rate in India 7.22 7.76 8.75 28.52 21.73 10.18 7.4 8.35 6.68 7.02 6.5 9.06 6.52 6.89 6.5 7.97 11.84 9.17 6.96 8.32 6.86 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Q4 FY20 Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21 Q1 FY22 Q2 FY22 Source: Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) Unemployment trends in India
  • 7. 7 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape 7 https://unemploymentinindia.cmie.com/ 8 Ibid. 9 https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationReportDetails.aspx?UrlPage=&ID=1180 10 Ibid. 11 https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/FsReports.aspx The unemployment in India increased exponentially during the first wave to a record high of 28.52% in April 2020, eventually decreasing to 21.73% in May 2020.7 The increase in unemployment rate is attributed to the strict lockdown imposed during this period. However, during the peak of the second wave in May 2021, the unemployment rate increased to a maximum of 11.84%. This is less than half the peak unemployment rate during the first wave. A possible reason for the low unemployment rate during the second wave could be the localised lockdowns which allowed economic activities to continue in areas with low infection numbers. Since then, the unemployment rate has come down to pre-COVID levels. The national unemployment rate for September 2021 was at 6.86%.8 The vaccination rate has increased significantly since the peak of the second wave. The demand for goods and services has also picked up during the festive season, leading to increased job opportunities in the Indian market. 1.2 Retail lending scenario in India • Loans disbursed towards agriculture and allied activities showed an uptick to the tune of 11.4% in June 2021 compared to 2.4% in June 2020.9 • Retail loans – covering housing and vehicle loans – witnessed an accelerated growth of 11.9% in June 2021 compared to 10.4% a year ago. • Retail credit grew at a year-on-year (YoY) rate of 16.6% up to 2019–20. The present rate of growth in retail lending is expected to remain below the pre-pandemic levels. A glance at the provisioning and NPA situation in the Indian banking ecosystem The gross non-performing assets (GNPA) had peaked in FY18 at 11.2% before falling to 9.1% in FY19 and further declining to 8.2% in FY20, right before the onset of the pandemic’s first wave.10 However, the ratio of GNPA came down to 7.5% in September FY21 despite the pandemic and its economic impact. This is due to the RBI’s six-month moratorium announced during the first wave to cushion the economic impact on retail borrowers. The second wave led to further decline in the capacity of retail lenders to repay the loans. As a result, the NPAs of scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) in India are expected to rise to the tune of 9.8% by March 2022 as against 7.5% in March 2021.11 The repayment capacity of lenders is expected to recover from the third quarter onward with the resumption of economic activities.
  • 8. 8 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape Comparative analysis of the impact of COVID waves on Indian retail lending 02 2.1 Geography-wise loan sourcing and delinquency trends Since the outbreak of the pandemic in India, the country has seen two major waves, spaced roughly one year apart, during which the number of infections peaked. However, the impact has not been uniform across India as some states were significantly impacted while others managed the pandemic relatively better. Similarly, the impact on retail lending has varied across states as well as along the urban-rural divide. In the upcoming section, we will discuss how the pandemic impacted the retail lending ecosystem in India across various geographical differences and the factors contributing to this heterogeneous behaviour. Urban vs rural trends of disbursement Quarter-wise loan disbursement trends for urban and rural areas Source: Equifax Note: Data for retail lending products considered (auto, business, consumer, housing, personal, property, tractor, two-wheeler and used car loans) -73% 117% -2% 23% -17% -63% 91% -4% 21% -9% -65% 97% -1% 22% -14% -67% 101% -1% 22% -13% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21 Q1 FY22 Urban Rural Semi urban Total The number of new loans sanctioned decreased significantly across the spectrum with the onset of the pandemic. There was an overall decrease of 67% during the first quarter of FY21 owing to the lockdown and limited availability of a robust digital infrastructure. The recovery in loans sanctioned started to improve from the mid of the second quarter, with September being the best month in the quarter. However, the stellar growth of 101% in sanctioned loans is largely owed to the low base effect from the previous quarter. The percentage of new loans sanctioned reached a healthy level of 22% by the fourth quarter owing to the announcement of a breakthrough in COVID-19 vaccines, opening of major activities of the economy and the commencement of the vaccination programme in India. The growth in loans sanctioned grew to negative once again in the first quarter of FY22 due to the outbreak of the second wave. But compared to the average decline of 67%, the decline during the second wave was much lower at only 13%. From here onward, disbursements have picked up as the vaccination rate increased and the number of COVID-19 cases declined.
  • 9. 9 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape Percentage distribution of delinquent accounts by rural/urban area Urban vs rural trends for delinquency 39% 18% 43% Urban Rural Semi urban Percentage distribution of outstanding amount in delinquent accounts by rural/urban area Urban Rural Semi urban 50% 14% 36% Source: Equifax Note: Data for retail lending products considered (auto, business, consumer, housing, personal, property, tractor, two- wheeler and used car loans). The highest number of accounts as well the amount outstanding in accounts that were restructured due to COVID-19 were the highest in semi-urban areas standing at 47% and 43% respectively. Such a trend can be attributed to the lockdown which caused the loss of daily/casual jobs in urban areas, inducing reverse migration of the workforce to their native semi-urban areas. Percentage distribution of number of accounts restructured due to COVID-19 Urban Rural Semi urban 36% 21% 43% Percentage distribution of amount outstanding in accounts restructured due to COVID-19 Urban Rural Semi urban 23% 30% 47% Source: Equifax Note: Data for retail lending products considered (auto, business, consumer, housing, personal, property, tractor, two- wheeler and used car loans)
  • 10. Looking at the quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) distribution of accounts in delinquency, the number of accounts in DPD 90 and DPD 120 is the highest among semi-urban and urban areas. Such a high rate of delinquency among urban and semi-urban borrowers can be attributed to the higher dependency of urban household income on manufacturing and service sectors which were more severely impacted due to the pandemic and the subsequent lockdown, compared to agriculture. Job losses and reverse migration from urban areas are other two reasons for the high delinquency rate. QoQ distribution of number of 90 DPD delinquent accounts by rural/urban area 0% 50% 100% 150% 33% 28% 28% 26% 23% 26% 27% 28% 44% 46% 46% 46% Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21 Urban Rural Semi urban QoQ distribution of number of 120 DPD delinquent accounts by rural/urban area Urban Rural Semi urban 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 34% 33.96% 38.54% 30.63% 21% 21.29% 17.69% 23.58% 44% 44.75% 43.77% 45.79% Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21 Source: Equifax Note: Data for retail lending products considered (auto, business, consumer, housing, personal, property, tractor, two- wheeler and used car loans) 10 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
  • 11. 11 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape State-wise trends State-wise trends for disbursement Sourcing trends of states with most number of COVID-19 cases -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% Maharashtra Kerala Karnataka Tamil Nadu Andhra Pradesh Uttar Pradesh West Bengal Delhi Chattisgarh Rajasthan Average of top 10 states Rest of India Q4 FY20 Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21 Q1 FY22 Source: Equifax Note: Data for retail lending products considered (auto, business, consumer, housing, personal, property, tractor, two- wheeler and used car loans) From the sourcing trends, it is evident that although the second wave was more severe than the first, the impact on lending was lesser compared to the first wave. The average decline in retail lending for the top ten COVID-19 impacted states during Q1 FY21 was -68.88% compared to 22.19% for Q1 FY22. The average for the rest of India stood at -65.00% and -15.78% respectively for the same period. This can be attributed to the fact that robust digital infrastructure was developed during the intervening period by most of the banks. During the first wave, states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi saw the highest contraction in loan disbursements, to the tune of 70% and more. During the outbreak of the second wave, states like Kerala and Chhattisgarh saw over 30% contraction in disbursements. State-wise trends for delinquency Loan accounts in delinqency for the top ten COVID-affected states Q1 FY21 Q2 FY21 Q3 FY21 Q4 FY21 Q1 FY22 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Maharashtra Kerala Karnataka Tamil Nadu Andhra Pradesh Uttar Pradesh West Bengal Delhi Chattisgarh Rajasthan
  • 12. The number of delinquent accounts skyrocketed during the first wave, compounded by the nationwide lockdown which extended well into the second quarter of FY21, resulting in reverse migrations and halting of most economic activities barring the essential ones. Due to the high number of job losses, a spike in auto-debit failures was also noticed, which indicate the pain for India’s small borrowers during the pandemic. Another key attribute that has contributed to the higher delinquency rates is the hindrance to physical collections. The lack of digital infrastructure during the first wave compounded the problems for those who had the capacity to pay, but could not, due to severe restrictions in movement. Since then, the digital infrastructure has been ramped up, which could be one of the major reasons why the delinquency rates for retails loans was lower during the second wave. Looking at the growth rates of accounts in delinquency for the top ten affected states, the share of the number of accounts in delinquency in rural, urban and semi-urban areas remained almost the same during both the waves. However, the QoQ delinquency growth from Q4 FY21 to Q1 FY22 was the lowest for rural areas during the first wave while it was the highest for the same during the second wave. A similar uptick was noticed in the case of semi-urban areas. Growth in account delinquency during the first wave for the top ten affected states 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2.00% 15.53% 4.79% 45.06% 3.91% 39.41% Rural Urban Semi urban QoQ growth Percentage of total Source: Equifax Growth in account delinquency during the second wave for the top ten most affected states QoQ growth Percentage of total 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 8.76% 16.96% 5.14% 43.55% 7.01% 39.49% Rural Urban Semi urban 12 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
  • 13. 2.2 Product-wise trends The pandemic has impacted different customer segments differently, affecting both sourcing as well as delinquency behaviour. In the upcoming section, we have broken down and analysed the sourcing and delinquency trends across different product types bucketed as auto-related loans, business and personal loans, and home and property loans. 13 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape 2.1.1 Auto-related loans Disbursement QoQ number of auto-related loans sourcing and growth rate -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% - 10,00,000 20,00,000 30,00,000 Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Two-wheeler loan Auto loan Tractor loan Used car loan Growth Source: Equifax The recovery in disbursements which started in Q1 FY21 continued till Q3, but the fear of a second wave and imminent lockdown had halted the growth with Q1 FY22 disbursement numbers clocking less than 50% of pre-COVID levels. Two-wheeler loans lead the number of disbursements with an overall share of 64%. Post the first wave, consumers are spending more money on purchasing four wheelers with the average ticket size of auto loans growing year on year (YoY) by 22%, currently standing at INR 6.35 lakh. The lockdown induced reverse migration of salaried urban youth and subsequent decrease in monthly household expenditure could have attributed to this trend. In the tractor loan segment, barring during the onset of the pandemic, there was no radical variation in terms of the number of tractor loan disbursements. This can be attributed to the higher-than-average rainfall, lower impact of lockdowns in rural areas and exclusion of agriculture from lockdowns.
  • 14. 14 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape YoY (Q1 FY21 to Q1 FY22) growth rate of auto-related loans geography wise -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% Rural Semi Urban Urban Auto loan Tractor loan Two-wheeler loan Used car loan Source: Equifax YoY (Q1 FY21 to Q1 FY22) growth rate of auto-related loans geography wise 56% 34% 8% NBFC Pvt bank PSU bank Others Foreign bank HFC 2% 0% 0% Source: Equifax With customers moving away from public transportation and giving priority to safety and convenience, the number of auto-related disbursements have gone up by 200% with the highest increase seen in two-wheeler and used car loans. A higher number of used car loan disbursements was visible across geographies, possibly indicating these are first-time car buyers, while purchasing a new car has been the trend among urban customers. Non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) and private banks with their quicker processing time and wide distribution network have a combined share of 90% in the auto segment. Private banks have been able to leverage existing customer relationships and use data and analytics capabilities to provide preapproved offerings with minimal documentation.
  • 15. 15 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape QoQ growth rate for the number of DPD 90–120 accounts for auto-related loans -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Auto loan Two-wheeler loan Tractor loan Used car loan Source: Equifax YoY (Q1 FY21 to Q1 FY22) sector wise number of auto related loans in DPD 90–120 category 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 NBFC PSU bank Pvt bank Others NBFC PSU bank Pvt bank Others Q1 '22 Q1 '21 Auto loan Tractor loan Two-wheeler loan Used car loan Source: Equifax For the QoQ growth rate of delinquent accounts in the DPD 90–120 bucket, there was a dip in the growth rate in Q1 FY21 and a sharp rise in Q2 and Q3. This sharp rise in delinquent accounts post Q1 FY20 can be attributed to the end of the moratorium period in August 2020. The highest jump in delinquent accounts was observed for two-wheeler loans in the semi-urban geography, which can be attributed to the income loss for blue-collar workers and people working in the manufacturing sector which was significantly affected by the lockdowns. The work from home (WFH) option provided by major companies and online classes initiated by almost all educational institutions badly impacted the auto, cab and transportation sector, with assets lying idle and operators unable to make timely repayments. All this coupled with lower travel requirements of citizens, driver unavailability and localised lockdowns impacted the transportation industry negatively. With cashless repayment not reaching the desired level of penetration, a considerable number of lenders still rely on physical collection which was adversely impacted during the lockdowns. The NBFC sector has been impacted more in the number of delinquent cases. Localised presence of smaller NBFCs, lack of a pan-India collection infrastructure and manual recovery processes could be some of the reasons for this trend.
  • 16. 16 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape Geography wise number of auto related loans in DPD 90-120 category Auto loan Tractor loan Two-wheeler loan Used car loan 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Rural Semi urban Urban Rural Semi urban Urban Rural Semi urban Urban Rural Semi urban Urban Rural Semi urban Urban Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Source: Equifax QoQ number of personal, consumer and business loans sourced and growth rate 2.1.2 Personal, consumer and business loans Disbursement Source: Equifax - 50,00,000 1,00,00,000 1,50,00,000 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Business loan Consumer loan Personal loan Growth (business loans) Growth (personal and consumer) The pandemic and subsequent imposition of lockdowns have impacted small and medium enterprises (SME) owners the most. As state governments started to withdraw restrictions by the end of Q1 FY21, the subsequent quarter saw a 200% increase in the number of SME business loan sourcing, with sourcing levels in Q4 reaching two times compared to pre-COVID levels. However, the second wave severely impacted the business loan demand, with sourcing dropping by more than 50%. Various measures taken by the Government as a part of its Aatmanirbhar Bharat initiative to spur demand had a positive impact in the recovery journey post the first lockdown. The pandemic resulted in 97%12 of the households in the country reporting a decline in household income. Personal and consumer durable loans were negatively impacted in Q1 FY21 primarily because of the lack of contactless disbursement capabilities among FIs. However, this segment is picking up pace and is on track to attain pre-COVID disbursement levels. Even during the second wave, the sourcing of personal loans grew steadily while other product lines showed muted growth. The growth in personal loans can be attributed to the increased need-based demand coming in from educational and medical expenses. FinTech NBFCs have led the charge in digital loan disbursements with smaller ticket sizes, customised product offerings and faster turnaround. 12 https://www.cmie.com/kommon/bin/sr.php?kall=warticle&dt=20210517161425&msec=876&ver=pf
  • 17. 17 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape YoY (Q1 FY21 to Q1 FY22) growth rate of personal, consumer and business loans geography wise Source: Equifax -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% Rural Semi urban Urban Business loan Consumer loan Personal loan Consumer and personal loans have shown significant growth across geographies from the first wave till now. The demand for business loans has come down by 30% in rural areas and remained the same in semi-urban locations. With the prolonged lockdowns during the second wave, non-essential businesses were completely closed, thereby reducing the demand for business loans. Source: Equifax PSU bank Others Pvt bank NBFC Foreign bank HFC 57% 18% 13% 12% 0% 0% Share of business loan disbursement as on Q1 FY22 Source: Equifax 83% 16% 1% 0% 0% 0% NBFC Pvt bank PSU bank Others Foreign bank HFC Share of personal and consumer loan disbursement as on Q1 FY22 PSU banks have been key for pushing various Government schemes targeted at micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). During the first wave, the Government had launched multiple schemes to help MSMEs tide over the crisis. Some of these schemes are the Credit Linked Capital Subsidy Scheme (CLCSS), overdraft interest rate rebate, collateral free loans and Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS). The 57% share of PSUs in business loan disbursement is a testimony to the fact that PSU banks have played a key role in ensuring that these schemes reach end users. NBFCs have the highest share of personal and consumer durable loans. During the first wave, NBFCs and FinTechs were able to make quick changes in their existing processes and policies, and provide end-to-end digital experience to customers, thereby increasing efficiency and ensuring disbursement without face-to-face interaction. The period also saw the emergence of an increased number of FinTech NBFC players, especially in the personal loans and consumer durable space, providing a variety of targeted offerings to customers, including buy now pay later (BNPL) and credit line-based offerings. FinTech NBFCs saw increased disbursement but the average ticket size has decreased to 9,000. This segment saw 30% growth during the COVID period, with customers adopting mobile-only zero-contact offerings from FinTech players.
  • 18. Delinquency QoQ growth rate for the number of DPD 90–120 accounts for business, consumer and personal loans -200% 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Business loan Consumer loan Personal loant Geography wise number of personal, consumer and business loans in DPD 90–120 category 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Rural Semi urban Urban Rural Semi urban Urban Rural Semi urban Urban Rural Semi urban Urban Rural Semi urban Urban Source: Equifax Delinquency cases were observed to be the highest in low ticket size loans like consumer and personal loans. The dependence on the manufacturing sector and agricultural income, and the subsequent reduction in household income during lockdowns can be attributed to the higher delinquency among the rural and semi-urban population. Fintech NBFCs, who have been leading the disbursements in the unsecured personal loans and consumer durable category with digital offerings like BNPL, have borne the maximum brunt. Business loans which have much more stringent credit policies coupled with physical verifications saw lower delinquencies. Also, this segment has better customer stickiness with customers opting for repeat loans, which might also be a contributing factor. 18 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
  • 19. 19 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape YoY (Q1 FY21 to Q1 FY22) sector-wise change in the number of loans in the DPD 90–120 category 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 Business loan Consumer loan Personal loan Foreign bank NBFC PSU bank Pvt bank Others Foreign bank NBFC PSU bank Pvt bank Others Q1 '21 Q1 '22 QoQ number of home loans and LAP sourced and growth rate 2.1.3 Home loans and LAP Disbursement Source: Equifax - 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Housing loan Property loan Growth home loan Growth property loan With uncertainties around the pandemic and an impending next wave, the demand for housing had declined to almost 60% during the first wave. The fall in interest rates coupled with various state governments reducing the stamp duty gave the much-needed push to home buyers and the demand increased continuously from Q2 FY20 and sourcing saw double digit growth till Q4 FY20, with 30% more disbursements in Q4 FY20 compared to the pre-COVID levels. However, Q1 FY21 saw the demand crashing down by 50%. Onset of the second wave, lockdown-induced restrictions, unavailability of labour and increase in the price of raw materials could have contributed to customers postponing their purchase decisions.
  • 20. 20 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape YoY (Q1 FY21 to Q1 FY22) growth rate of home and property loans (geography wise) Source: Equifax 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% Rural Semi urban Urban Housing loan Property loan Demand for both home and property loans saw an uptick across geographies. The average ticket size for home loans has gone up by 14%. The extension of WFH could be one of the reasons behind the increased need for spaciousness among consumers. The average ticket size for LAP has gone down by 7%, with businesses focusing on survival rather than expansion.
  • 21. 21 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape Source: Equifax Share of business loan disbursement as on Q1 FY22 46% 32% 14% 4% 3% 0% Others NBFC Foreign bank PSU bank Pvt bank HFC Source: Equifax Share of personal and consumer loan disbursement as on Q1 FY22 Others NBFC PSU bank Foreign bank Pvt bank HFC 51% 19% 17% 6% 5% 0% PSU banks were the first to pass on the benefit of reduced interest rates to their customers. Such banks (followed by housing finance companies [HFCs]) lead the home loan segment with reduced interest rates and a wide distribution network. Leading PSU banks have also launched credit score based differential interest rate schemes where customers with higher credit scores (>750) are offered better interest rates. In the case of loan against property (LAP), the primary consumers are small business owners who often don’t prefer going through the detailed documentation process and opt for an HFC or a private bank which disburses the loan amount faster. HFCs and private banks have a combined share of 70% in this segment. Delinquency QoQ growth rate of DPD 90–120 accounts for home and property loans -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Housing loan Property loan
  • 22. 22 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape Geography wise number of personal, consumer and business loans in the DPD 90–120 category 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Rural Semi urban Urban Rural Semi urban Urban Rural Semi urban Urban Rural Semi urban Urban Rural Semi urban Urban Housing loan Property loan YoY (Q1 FY 21 to Q1 FY22) sector-wise change in the number of loans in the DPD 90–120 category 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Housing loan Property loan HFC NBFC PSU bank Pvt bank Others HFC NBFC Pvt bank Others AMJ '20 AMJ '21 PSU bank Source: Equifax With small business owners being the primary consumers of property loans and their livelihoods being adversely affected by the pandemic, this segment saw a 165% growth in delinquency compared to pre-COVID levels. Most of the impact was observed in the urban and semi-urban geographies where the lockdowns were much harsher. The HFC and PSU sectors which have the highest share of home loans have shown an uptick in the number of delinquent cases.
  • 23. 23 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape 2.3 Loan portfolio based on FI type While the impact of the pandemic was felt across the industry and all types of FIs were affected, the impact was not the same for all categories of institutions. Even for similar product lines, the behaviour in sourcing and delinquency has greatly differed for different lenders. 0.08% 1.59% 2.12% 13.50% 16.61% Others NBFC PSU bank Foreign bank Pvt bank HFC 66.10% Distribution of loans sourced across FIs in FY22 Source: Equifax The impact of the first wave led to a decline in demand for loans across all FIs. Foreign banks were the worst hit with approximately 80% decline in the number of loans sourced compared to the pre-COVID months owing to the concentration of portfolios primarily in the urban and semi-urban regions which were worst affected by lockdowns. PSBs, with a decline of approximately 10% in the total number of loans sourced, fared better than their counterparts during the first wave. Q2 and Q3 FY21 marked a recovery period for all FIs as the number of cases declined, the vaccination drive gathered speed and customer demand increased. However, only PSBs witnessed a growth of 78% compared to pre-COVID sourcing while demand for loans from private banks, NBFCs and foreign banks remained lower compared to the pre-COVID months. Source: Equifax Note: Data for retail lending products considered (auto, business, consumer, housing, personal, property, tractor, two-wheeler and used car loans) Distribution of new loans sourced based on the type of FIs 0 10 20 30 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Foreign bank HFC + NBFC Others PSU bank Pvt bank Growth – HFC + NBFC Growth – foreign bank Growth – others Growth – PSU bank Growth – pvt bank With the onset of the second wave, the total number of loans sourced declined across all FIs in Q1 FY22. Except for PSBs (approximately 50% QoQ decline), the QoQ decline in sourcing in the second wave was lesser compared to the first wave in the wake of localised measures implemented for containing the spread. However, the complete impact of the second wave will become clearer in Q2 FY22 due to demand driven by the festive season.
  • 24. 24 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape Portfolio distribution of FIs (June 2020) Portfolio distribution of FIs across geographies 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 4% 8% 24% 21% 18% 17% 42% 45% 46% 38% 79% 50% 31% 33% 44% Foreign bank HFC NBFC PSU bank Pvt bank Rural Semi urban Urban Source: Equifax Portfolio distribution of FIs (June 2021) Rural Semi urban Urban 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 4% 11% 24% 27% 20% 25% 48% 46% 49% 42% 71% 41% 30% 23% 38% Foreign Banks HFC NBFC PSUs Pvt bank Among FIs, the primary lending focus for foreign banks has been the urban and semi-urban regions. Over the course of the year, they have increased their presence in the semi-urban areas. The share of loans for HFCs and private banks have diversified into both rural and semi-urban areas. For NBFCs, their geography-wise share has remained almost the same. Almost 50% of the loan disbursements for PSBs are in semi-urban areas with a YoY growth of 6% for rural areas.
  • 25. Comparative analysis of loans sourced by FIs across the COVID-19 waves Number of loans sourced - 20,00,000 40,00,000 60,00,000 80,00,000 1,00,00,000 Percentage growth -1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 Pre-COVID COVID wave 1 COVID wave 2 Rural Semi urban Urban Rural Semi urban Urban Rural Semi urban Urban Foreign bank HFC NBFC Pvt bank PSU bank Growth – foreign bank Growth – HFC Growth – NBFC Growth – PSU bank Growth – pvt bank Source: Equifax Note: Data for retail lending products considered (auto, business, consumer, housing, personal, property, tractor, two-wheeler and used car loans) Sourcing for all FIs except PSBs fared better during the second wave compared to the first due to a more robust digital infrastructure and higher consumer demand. While the first wave witnessed a decline of approximately 70% for all FIs across rural, semi-urban and urban areas except PSBs, the second wave had a varied impact on lending recovery. Compared to the pre-COVID period, disbursements remained lowest for foreign banks with the rural portfolio being the worst hit owing to the larger impact of the second wave felt across rural areas. Disbursements by NBFCs, PSBs and private banks fell by approximately 30–40% compared to pre-COVID levels. Urban areas were impacted the most owing to a higher number of cases, localised lockdowns and a drastic slowdown in economic activities. 25 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
  • 26. 26 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape Distribution of loan ticket sizes across different FIs (as on June 2021) Source: Equifax Note: Data for retail lending products considered (auto, business, consumer, housing, personal, property, tractor, two-wheeler and used car loans) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Foreign bank HFC NBFC Others PSU bank Pvt bank 0-50K 10L-15L 15L-25L 1L-2L 25L-75L 2L-4L 4L-10L 50k-1L +75L Both the waves led to a shift in the borrowing behaviour pattern with a transition towards need-based low ticket sized loans for purposes like medical emergencies, health insurance purchase and rental deposits. The rise of new-age lending platforms and FinTech players further accelerated the rise of small-ticket loans. Owing to the high growth in low ticket sized personal loans, a majority of the loans sourced across FIs in Q1 FY22 have ticket sizes below INR 10 lakh. While approximately 85% of the loans disbursed by NBFCs have ticket sizes below INR 50K, approximately 70% of the loans sourced by private banks were below INR 1 lakh. Ticket sizes for a majority of the loans disbursed by PSBs ranged from INR 2–10 lakh.
  • 27. 27 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape FI wise distribution of DPD (0–90) - 50,00,000 1,00,00,000 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Foreign bank HFC NBFC Pvt bank PSU bank Growth – foreign bank Growth – HFC + NBFC Growth – others Growth – PSU bank Growth – pvt bank FI wise distribution of DPD (90–120) Foreign bank HFC NBFC Pvt bank PSU bank Growth – foreign bank Growth – HFC + NBFC Growth – others Growth – PSU bank Growth – pvt bank - 5,00,000 10,00,000 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% Q3 '20 Q4 '20 Q1 '21 Q2 '21 Q3 '21 Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Source: Equifax Note: Data for retail lending products considered (auto, business, consumer, housing, personal, property, tractor, two-wheeler and used car loans) The number of cases in the softer delinquency buckets witnessed a growth in Q2 FY21 across all FIs (highest being for foreign banks) except private banks after the first wave. This was primarily due to the end of the moratorium period in August 2020 and an estimated 121 million job losses which affected the repayment behaviour of borrowers and reduced the collections efficiency owing to restricted movements across the country. Post a recovery period of almost two quarters, the number of delinquent cases further grew in Q1 FY22 owing to the impact of the second wave on borrowers’ economic activity. Owing to the impact of the first wave, a high number of accounts slipped into the 90–120 DPD bucket in Q3 FY21, with the highest QoQ growth in delinquencies recorded for NBFCs, private banks and foreign banks. This was primarily due to the liquidity crunch faced by mid- and low-income high-risk borrowers, who form a majority of the non-traditional customer base of the NBFCs, in the wake of the pandemic.
  • 28. 28 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape 03 Key drivers of change The retail lending scenario has evolved with the onset and continuation of the pandemic, and incumbents are now facing increased competition from new-age NBFCs. New players, equipped with end-to-end digital processing capabilities and ensuring a quicker turnaround time, are reaching out to prime borrowers, the key target segment of traditional lenders. Retail lenders need to identify key drivers of change and adopt it in their ways of doing business for sustainable competitive advantage. 3.1 Digitisation in retail lending The first and second waves have provided impetus to both financial organisations and regulators to digitise existing lending journeys with the aim of bringing operational efficiencies to a larger customer base. As per the PwC-Equifax Survey conducted in May 2021,13 in the wake of the first wave, 29% credit managers and executives highlighted digital transformation as a core focus area while 25% were focusing on customer experience. Initiatives taken by both FIs and regulators corroborate the identified focus areas. Initiatives by FIs • Digitisation in customer acquisition: Lenders, big and small, have adopted redefined KYC norms enabled through E2E video-KYC process, virtual sales assistance and contactless process for completing the customer-borrowing journey and machine learning (ML) based banking analysis to build a digital lending infrastructure in the pandemic. Players in the space of providing video-KYC tools have witnessed exponential growth owing to the focus on digitisation across the lending landscape. Additionally, new players are making headways into the Indian lending market with unique use cases like virtual property valuations and analytics for further reducing manual intervention across the entire lending journey. • Mobile first: With the total number of smartphone users in India is poised to reach 83 crore by 2022,14 India will be giving stiff competition to China for the position of the country with the highest number of smartphone users. Customers are now accustomed to executing complex tasks and transactions using their mobile devices and expect to be able to utilise a full range of banking services using such channels. Lenders must not add mobile only as an additional channel, but also focus on tailoring customer journeys and aligning expectations during the product-creation process as well. Capabilities need to be developed for identifying customers’ preferred mode of communicating with the FI responding to their needs via their preferred channel. In 2020, FinTech NBFCs accounted for 45%15 of all personal loans disbursed. This shows how comfortable the current crop of loan seekers are when it comes to availing digital financial services as the solutions/apps are tailor-made and the customer journeys are intuitive. 13 https://www.pwc.in/assets/pdfs/consulting/financial-services/mapping-the-indian-retail-lending-landscape.pdf 14 https://www.iamai.in/KnowledgeCentre 15 https://www.sidbi.in/files/announcements/Fintech-Pulse-Vol-II.pdf
  • 29. 29 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape Underwriting transformation A dramatic increase in the low ticket size unsecured lending across FIs post the COVID waves has meant a transition away from the traditional underwriting data sources through primarily two main modes of operations: • Data transformation leveraging advanced analytics: Refining the existing data models for advanced use cases like E2E customer lifecycle management and supply chain management or credit default prediction while leveraging extensively emerging technologies like ML to increase the accuracy and predictive capability of analytical models. • FinTech partnerships: Strategic partnerships with niche FinTech players providing access to alternative data sources like assets related data of consumers and online transaction data of consumers. Communication data • Mobile usage • Data usage • Location data • Identification check • Roaming information • Behavioural data • Social profile data E-commerce, payments and travel data • Consumption patterns • Income proxy • Demographics • Identification check • Contact information Financial data • Payment behaviour (EMIs, premiums) • Debt consolidation • Asset holdings • Contact information • Identification checks • Income data One of the largest rural NBFCs Use of alternative as well as bureau data for underwriting and development of partner data models is underway Challenger NBFC providing instant personal loans Data being leveraged for EWS platform adoption with widespread use of communication data for customer profiling Financial data Leading BNPL and credit platform Illustrative data models used by financial players • Contactless collections: During the first and second waves, reduction in collections efficiency due to restricted personnel movement and limited availability of physical collections channels were the key challenges faced by small lenders. This has led to a conscious push towards digital payments for collections and technology initiatives like hyper-personalised AI-driven virtual chatbots for driving contactless collections and reducing the turnaround time (TAT) and process cost. Use of technology is enabling players to automate collections, support customer queries, manage outbound collections calls and assist customers in making digital payments for collections. • Virtual servicing: The pandemic has accelerated the growth of contextualised remote servicing for borrowers to reduce the overall time for customer query resolution. FIs are looking to leverage customer data analytics and extensive product and customer driven segmentation to provide services in the most effective way.
  • 30. 30 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape Complexity of interaction Customer value/size of customer Medium Medium High High Primary channels offered and channel promoted to customers Special focus Self-service Special focus All channels, human touch D B A C F E Low Low 1 2 3 2 3 4 3 4 2 3 4 3 4 5 4 5 5 I n c r e a s i n g v i r t u a l c h a n n e l s I n c r e a s i n g h u m a n c h a n n e l s Source: PwC analysis List of channels 1. Dedicated branch 2. Sales visit/call 3. Call centre 4. Correspondence 5. Self-service/chatbot Channel segmentation for optimisation of interaction time along borrowers’ journey Key regulator and Government driven interventions • Know Your Customer Guidelines, 2020: The RBI introduced the Video based Customer Identification Process (V-CIP) on 10 May 2021, an alternative method of customer identification with facial recognition and customer due diligence by an authorised official of the Regulated Entity (RE). The central bank also amended its 2016 Master Direction on Know Your Customer (KYC) on 9 January 2020 as well as introduced Digital KYC. All REs will have to mandatorily conduct e-KYC if online verification is not possible. However, only banks are allowed to capture video KYC. Other NBFCs will have to adhere to the traditional methods of KYC as stated in the 2016 circular. • Payment ecosystem: The regulator has laid the foundations for creating a framework around FinTechs and also created a separate FinTech department which will help in regulating the sector. Currently, the sector remains largely unregulated. The framework would also help in addressing the challenges in the current ecosystem. These developments would help in creating a legal and regulatory structure within which FinTechs/digital lending institutions can operate and thrive. • Federated consent architecture: A joint public-private initiative for streamlining data governance by providing users control over their data and allowing seamless sharing which can thereby be leveraged by players for a smooth and intelligent lending journey for borrowers. The account aggregator (AA) framework is one such initiative which will democratise credit by enabling individuals to access, aggregate and share financial data within the network of FIs which are a part of the AA framework.
  • 31. 31 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape 3.2 Embedded financing As per the PwC-Equifax Survey 2021, the most preferred alternative for business growth was product and service innovation with 29% of the respondents choosing the same. This is reflected in the changing landscape of lending product variants with multiple FIs transitioning towards embedded lending for diversifying their sourcing channels. Lenders are offering financial products embedded into the interconnected ecosystem through partnerships with players in sectors like education and healthcare to offer specific need-based products. In order to truly capitalise on the strengths of embedded lending, FIs need to internally look at their capabilities, existing product lines and value chain, and identify areas where collaborating with ecosystem players can create more value than building or buying. Some of these systems and capabilities are too costly for a lending focused organisation to build and maintain. BNPL, a key embedded lending model, is gaining traction in the post pandemic lending landscape. It provides targeted offerings for millennials and younger customers aimed at breaking down bulk cash outflows into low-cost EMIs through bite-sized credit. BNPL products are becoming popular in India with the growth of e-commerce as well as internet and smartphone penetration. Market leaders expect BNPL products to scale up further with BNPL payments in the country expected to grow by 72.7% annually to reach USD 6,327.2 million in 2021.16 The growing popularity of the low-cost product has also pushed large private sector players to foray into the space. In light of the gaining popularity of embedded lending, the Government is also providing impetus to application programming interfaces (APIs) driven lending through the AA framework. AA can provide consent-based access to a customer’s banking history to digital lenders, thus enabling a differentiated lending experience, especially for MSMEs and new-to-credit borrowers who lack access to formal credit. The marketplaces and aggregator models, easily accessible through new-age FinTech platforms and apps as per their need for different customer segments, are expected to lead to the opening up of an entirely new paradigm of embedded lending in the retail lending landscape. 3.3 Ecosystem buildout In a highly competitive landscape of approximately 10,000 NBFCs and banks, FIs have recognised the need for providing collaborative ecosystem-driven lending avenues and leveraging the network effects of players in the ecosystem for higher penetration of lending products. Ecosystem-driven lending can be enabled by two key mechanisms: 1. strategic partnerships with players in the lending ecosystem, e.g. HFCs partnering with FinTechs for providing alternative data for underwriting 2. embedding NBFC financing in the overall ecosystem for the product offerings, e.g. providing rental deposit financing in collaboration with players providing rent agreement registration services. Ecosystem players across lending products, namely payment partners, direct sales agents, property aggregators/brokers, real estate agents, builders, and acquisition and collections facilitators provide access to unique data-driven insights into FIs that can be leveraged for higher penetration, robust underwriting models and improved customer servicing for both existing and prospective borrowers. 16 https://www.pwc.in/assets/pdfs/consulting/financial-services/mapping-the-indian-retail-lending-landscape.pdf
  • 32. Financial ecosystem Existing customers New customers Ecosystem players Direct sales agents, DMAs and real estate agents Aggregators and Physical operations continue to Integrations and partnerships driven marketplaces reduce with automation of the value new distribution channels chain enhancing CX Supply chain players, e.g. dealers on auto loans Payment partners Credit Products and Brokers, builders for home assessment and offerings and property partners decisioning Loyalty and Government agencies like Ecosystem Pricing rewards smart city ecosystem for Managed services capability on smart city financing the cloud, reducing on-site infrastructure Payments Insurance Retail and e-commerce players Ecosystem integration platform Ancillary service providers like insurance wealth Ecosystem-driven lending Source: PwC analysis 32 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape
  • 33. 33 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape 04 Conclusion The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about unprecedented business challenges, with significant macroeconomic impact on organisations in India and worldwide. FIs have been reeling under the impact of the pandemic for the past few quarters, with full repercussions likely to be felt in the coming years as well. Sourcing, which was severely impacted during the first wave, showed signs of recovery in the subsequent quarters. FIs embracing digital adoption in the lending processes was one of the key contributing factors for the increased sourcing numbers. This development has changed the way lenders looked at the traditional ways of banking and compelled them to be agile and adopt digital processes, with newer business models and technologies being adopted more than ever before. The rapid use of digital solutions and digital transformation of businesses has helped lenders to operate effectively in the new normal. However, it is also important for institutions to be wary of the various security threats that accompany digitalisation and constantly assess and track the risks that they carry. With the accelerated pace of vaccination and better preparedness among citizens and corporates, India now has a better chance of efficiently handling future waves of the pandemic. The third wave, though sizeable in terms of the number of cases, might not disrupt economic activity fully. Since economic activities have now resumed at nearly pre-COVID levels, lenders need to prioritise identifying and arresting of portfolio vulnerabilities at an early stage while filling the enormous credit gap. Moratoriums given to the customers can possibly impact their repayment behaviour, and this is where customer connect and engagement becomes imperative. With customers adopting digital channels and digital banking rapidly, lenders must innovate and create solutions that fit into the customer context. Customers are no longer only looking for financial products, and lenders must find ways to customise and fit offerings as a part of the overall ecosystem which addresses larger customer problems. FIs need to focus on serving customers through their channels of choice and with relevant products and value-added services. While digital channels would be key going forward, FIs need to correctly identify how to achieve the human touch and personalisation while serving through contactless channels.
  • 34. 34 | PwC Mapping the Indian retail lending landscape About PwC At PwC, our purpose is to build trust in society and solve important problems. We’re a network of firms in 156 countries with over 295,000 people who are committed to delivering quality in assurance, advisory and tax services. Find out more and tell us what matters to you by visiting us at www.pwc.com. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details. © 2022 PwC. All rights reserved. Contact us Asim Parashar Partner, Financial Services PwC India asim.parashar@pwc.com Ripunjay Gauttam Principal Consultant, Financial Servcies PwC India ripunjay.gautam@pwc.com Contributors Akhil M, Senior Associate, PwC India Sounak Ghosh, Senior Associate, PwC India Editorial support Dion D’Souza Saptarshi Dutta Design Kirtika Saxena
  • 35. pwc.in Data Classification: DC0 (Public) In this document, PwC refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers Private Limited (a limited liability company in India having Corporate Identity Number or CIN : U74140WB1983PTC036093), which is a member firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited (PwCIL), each member firm of which is a separate legal entity. This document does not constitute professional advice. The information in this document has been obtained or derived from sources believed by PricewaterhouseCoopers Private Limited (PwCPL) to be reliable but PwCPL does not represent that this information is accurate or complete. Any opinions or estimates contained in this document represent the judgment of PwCPL at this time and are subject to change without notice. Readers of this publication are advised to seek their own professional advice before taking any course of action or decision, for which they are entirely responsible, based on the contents of this publication. PwCPL neither accepts or assumes any responsibility or liability to any reader of this publication in respect of the information contained within it or for any decisions readers may take or decide not to or fail to take. © 2022 PricewaterhouseCoopers Private Limited. All rights reserved. KS/February 2022-17307