Systems Dynamics: why it is useful for systems-thinking, what it is and how it relates to causal loop diagrams; how to gather information; how to map information in teams and how to assess it. Application to framing and understanding wicked problems in agri-food chains collectively.

1. Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics
University of Parma, November 2nd, 2016
Course: Agri-Food Chain Management

2. Today’s lecture + tutorial plan
 Recap/catch up!
 Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics
 Why it is important
 How does it work
 How to gather information
 How to map the information
 Criteria of evaluation
 Tutorial:
 Develop YOUR Systems Dynamics map!

3. Today’s lecture + tutorial plan
 Recap/catch up!
 Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics
 Why it is important
 How does it work
 How to gather information
 How to map the information
 Criteria of evaluation
 Tutorial:
 Develop YOUR Systems Dynamics map!

4. Two approaches to ag-food chain mgmt.
Focal
company or
organization
Customers, customers
of customers
Suppliers, suppliers
of suppliers
OBESITY
MAFIA &
CORRUPTION
LAND, WATER,
ENERGY SCARCITY
POVERTY
VIOLATION OF
LABOR RIGHTS
POOR ACCESS TO
TECHNOLOGY
POOR ACCESS TO
CREDIT
WASTE
MANAGEMENT &
POLLUTION
CRIME
2. Changing the broader system where ag-food
chains are embedded (Dentoni et al. 2012; Senge et al. 2015)

5. Our Motto: Everyone is a Changemaker
How can YOU engage in activities that make this
CHANGE in or around food and agricultural chains?

6. How will YOU make change in ag-food?
PART I:
Understanding
problems
1. PICK A PROBLEM
THAT YOU WANT TO
ADDRESS
2. VISION: IMAGINE
YOUR DESIRED
FUTURE IN A
PERIOD BETWEEN
2020 and 2050
PART II:
Social innovation &
entrepreneurship
PART III:
Building
partnerships
PART IV:
Continuous
learning & change
I. Describe the nature
of the problem
Start from YOUR
GROUP’s IDEAS AND
INTERESTS
THROUGH YOUR
GROUP PROJECT:

7. Lecture 2: Wicked Problems
Cases:
Three features of
the problems:
Mafia in
agriculture
Unsustainability
and commodity
markets
Challenges in
collective
branding
Have actors
conflicting values?
Has the problem
many causes?
Does the problem
change over time?

8. STEP 1: Pick YOUR problem(s)
You have brainstormed in small groups
about problem(s) that you want to
address!
Let’s start from here…
(e.g. corruption, distrust,
uninnovative culture)
from here…
(e.g. collective
branding)
…or from here
(e.g. IT solutions to
combine food,
tourism and
education)

9. STEP 2: Sketch YOUR Vision
You have imagined a vision for 2020 or up to 2050
An example?
https://www.zingt
rain.com/content
/why-and-how-
visioning-works

10. Activities and assessment
How will activities and deadlines will be distributed along the course?
See all the details on the course syllabus online here
September October November December
Course introduction
(on September 19th);
Lectures 1 & 2;
Tutorial, formation of
groups and case selection
Individual study of
assigned readings. Get
acquainted with theory &
methods prior to the
lectures and tutorials in
November!
Intensive month of activities:
10 hours/week with
Lectures (from 3 to 10);
Tutorials, guest lectures
and supervised group work;
Close interaction with
instructor in preparation for
deliverables in December
Final deadlines &
assessment:
Final presentations and role
play (December 1st);
Group report (December 6th);
Individual short essay
(December 9th)

11. Activities and assessment
How will activities will be distributed along your week
(from November 2nd to December 9th)?
See all the details on the course syllabus online here
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday
8h
14h
14-16h
18-20h
16-18h LECTURE
LECTURE
TUTORIAL TUTORIAL
TUTORIAL

12. Activities and assessment
1. Group-based report. 40% of the grade. DEADLINE: December 6th
2. Group-based presentation. 20% of the grade. WHEN: December 1st
3. Role play. 10% of the grade. WHEN: December 1st
4. Individual, short essay. 30% of the grade. DEADLINE: December 9th
There will be no (oral or written) exam!
See all the details on the course syllabus online here

13. Learning Objectives
From syllabus learning outcomes
By the end of the course, you will have:
Learning outcomes Learning methods
Developed understanding of
major theories of change in agri-
food
Lectures, readings
Practiced methods and
approaches to explain change at
multiple levels
Lectures, readings, tutorials
Developed competencies for
participating to change processes in
agri-food (creativity, systems
thinking, negotiating,
teamwork, forward-thinking,
others!)
Tutorials, group-work,
presentations, role plays, guest
lectures, Facebook group

14. Today’s lecture + tutorial plan
 Recap/catch up!
 Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics
 Why it is important
 What it is, How does it work
 How to gather information
 How to map the information
 How to assess it
 Tutorial:
 Develop YOUR Systemic Dynamics map!

15. WHY Systems Dynamics?

16. WHY Systems Dynamics?
 To think of the unintended
consequences of YOUR actions
 To understand the trade-offs
and dilemmas among actors that
make the problem persist
 To map the multiple causes &
effects of the problem and
discuss the points that are most
uncertain
Systems Dynamics
helps framing and
mapping the three
key features of
wicked problems
(Dentoni & Ross 2013):
-Change over time
-Stakeholder conflict
- Knowledge
uncertainty

17. WHY Systems Dynamics?
“We can not solve our problems with the same level of thinking
that created them” (Einstein 1946)
System dynamics (SD)
is the tool to understand the
nature of problems and to
prepare for
Systemic change
(Senge et al. 2015)
(in agri-food chains and in
other socio-economic sectors)

18. Systems Thinking (Senge et al. 2015)
System dynamics (SD) is one of the key tools to develop
System Thinking, a KEY COMPETENCE to practice in this
course:
 Ability to see the larger system.
 Fostering reflection and more generative discussions
 Shifting focus from problem-solving to co-creating the future

19. Today’s lecture + tutorial plan
 Recap/catch up!
 Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics
 Why it is important
 What it is, how does it work
 How to gather information
 How to map the information
 How to assess it
 Tutorial:
 Develop YOUR Systemic Dynamics map!

20. Systems Dynamics: definition & history
System dynamics (SD) is an approach to understanding the
nonlinear behavior of complex systems over time using stocks,
flows, internal feedback loops and time delays (Forrester 1971)
Systems thinking (Senge
et al. 2015)
Causal loop diagrams
(Kirkwood 2016)

21. Causal Loop Diagrams (Kirkwood 2016)
System dynamics (SD) can be extremely complex (using stocks,
flows, internal feedback loops and time delays .
Causal loop diagrams provide a simplified, handy version of SD.
They still frame wicked problems and help developing your systems-
thinking.

22. Causal Loop Diagrams (Kirkwood 2016)
System dynamics (SD) principles simplified:
Causal Loop: Closed sequence of causes and effects, that is, a
closed path of action and information (Richardson and Pugh 1981).

23. Causal Loop Diagram: Drug Abuse
Drug
abuse
Suppose that, as a group of social entrepreneurs, you want to reduce drug abuse and
criminality in a neighborhood without increasing public expenditure (Dentoni 2016).
Let’s start from a very basic mapping of the problem:
Public costs
for rehab
programs
Youth
social
exclusion
Cultural
activities
in neigh-
borhood
Police
enforce-
ment
Criminality
Drug
Availability
-
+
+
+
-
Minus (-) indicates
that you agree that
there is a negative
relationship between
cultural activities and
youth social
exclusion (i.e., the
more cultural
activities, the less
youth social
exclusion)
Plus (+) indicates
that you agree that
there is a positive
relationship between
criminality and drug
availability (i.e., the
more criminality, the
more the drub
availability)
+

24. Causal Loop Diagram: Feedback loops
Drug
abuse
Public costs
for rehab
programs
Youth
social
exclusion
Cultural
activities
in neigh-
borhood
Police
enforce-
ment
Criminality
Drug
Availability
-
+
+
+
-
+
Public
budget
available
-
Public funds
for police
enforcement
Public funds
for cultural
activities
+
+
+
+

25. Causal Loop Diagram: from analysis to action
Drug
abuse
Let’s now brainstorm on a simple systemic intervention that may effectively reduce drug
abuse and criminality with no increase in public costs: what about a “time bank” and a
neighborhood watch initiative?
Public costs
for rehab
programs
Youth
social
exclusion
Cultural
activities
in neigh-
borhood
Police
enforce-
ment
Criminality
Drug
Availability
Time
bank in
neighb-
oorhood
Trust
among
neighbors
Neighbor-
hood
watch
initiative
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
-
+

26. Today’s lecture + tutorial plan
 Recap/catch up!
 Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics
 Why it is important
 What it is, how does it work
 How to gather information
 How to map the information
 How to assess it
 Tutorial:
 Develop YOUR Systemic Dynamics map!

27. How to gather information
1. Start from what you already know!
• Not only “certain information/knowledge”, but also
your gut feelings and opinions.
2. Consult in depth everyone within your group
• Everyone should really have put all their past know in it!
3. Consult other people closest to you
• Anyone can give you good info: students in other groups,
your family/friends, housemates, your barista, etc…
4. Watch video of interviews, or organize them:
• Who are good key informants? Stakeholders involved?
5. Consult literature (web + academic literature)

28. Today’s lecture + tutorial plan
 Recap/catch up!
 Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics
 Why it is important
 What it is, how does it work
 How to gather information
 How to map the information
How to assess it
 Tutorial:
 Develop YOUR Systemic Dynamics map!

29. How to map the problem
Drug
abuse
Public costs
for rehab
programs
Youth
social
exclusion
Cultural
activities
in neigh-
borhood
Police
enforce-
ment
Criminality
Drug
Availability
-
+
+
+
-
+
You can start from the main problem:

30. How to map the problem
Drug
abuse
Public costs
for rehab
programs
Youth
social
exclusion
Cultural
activities
in neigh-
borhood
Police
enforce-
ment
Criminality
Drug
Availability
-
+
+
+
-
+
OR you can start from causes of the problem:

31. How to map the problem
Drug
abuse
Public costs
for rehab
programs
Youth
social
exclusion
Cultural
activities
in neigh-
borhood
Police
enforce-
ment
Criminality
Drug
Availability
-
+
+
+
-
+
OR you can start from effects of the problem:

32. Important: How to gather information
As you work with your team on the map:
 Pay particular attention to the process of your interaction
 You will have to practice:
Individual
competencies:
 Active listening
 Complex
communication
 Trust in
yourself and
others
Team
competencies:
 Dialectics and
synthesis
between
different
opinions,
beliefs,
disciplines and
values

33. Today’s lecture + tutorial plan
 Recap/catch up!
 Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics
 Why it is important
 What it is, how does it work
 How to gather information
 How to map the information
 How to assess it
 Tutorial:
 Develop YOUR Systemic Dynamics map!

34. Criteria of evaluation for a great map
Tips for sketching an insightful map of YOUR PROBLEM:
1. Think broad: Draw many drivers and consequences of your problems. The more you draw
drivers and effects of your problems, the easier it will be for you to find effective and
creative interventions to these problems later on.
2. Develop feedback loops: How do the effects of your problem connect back with its
causes… creating vicious circles and virtuous circles? So that you can lately think of how to
break vicious circles and stimulate virtuous circles.
3. Seek the trade-offs and dilemmas: The problems often involve difficult choices. For
example, more police enforcement reduces criminality but is also likely to increase public
expenditure… to sketch a realistic and sharp map, seek and represent these dilemmas!
We will use these as criteria to assess your work and give you feedback in your group work!

35. Today’s lecture + tutorial plan
 Recap/catch up!
 Lecture 3: Systems Dynamics
 Why it is important
 What it is, how does it work
 How to gather information
 How to map the information
 How to assess it
 Tutorial:
 Develop YOUR Systemic Dynamics map!

36. Best of luck with building your map!

37. More information
SEE YOUR READINGS FOR LECTURE 3:
http://economia.unipr.it/docenti/text.asp?id=359&id_cors
o=1585