2015 Outlook For Energy presentation
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This presentation discusses ExxonMobil's outlook for global energy demand and supply through 2040. It provides estimates of energy demand growth by sector, fuel, and world region based on projections of population growth, economic development, and technology adoption. It also analyzes trends in energy trade and the fuel mix for power generation. However, it notes the projections are based on internal analysis and should be considered forward-looking statements subject to significant uncertainties.
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2015 Outlook For Energy presentation
- 1. This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Bill Colton December 9, 2014
- 2. 2 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy trade flows Energy Outlook Development 100 countries 15 demand sectors 20 fuel types technology & policy
- 3. 3 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy 13,000 AA batteries 4,000 smart phone batteries Energy Measures and Units 24,500 BTU1 log = 5 logs1 gallon gasoline = 1 gallon gasoline 36 kWh=
- 4. 4 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy 2010 U.S. Daily Per Capita Energy Demand 7 6 Household Use Personal Transportation 6 Commercial Transportation 4 Industrial 11 Commercial Buildings 34 Total 7
- 5. 5 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy 2010 World Daily Energy Demand 34 U.S. Per Capita 7 Times 7 billion people = ~12 billion gallons per day 260 MBDOE 525 QUADS 9 World Per Capita 1.7
- 6. 6 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Global Progress Drives Demand Population Billion GDP Trillion 2010$ Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs OECD* Key Growth China India Rest of World Energy Savings *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
- 7. 7 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy PPP 2005$k Standards of Living Increase in the Non OECD 2040 GDP per Capita 2010 *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
- 8. 8 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy The Middle Class Continues to Grow Billion People China India Key Growth Rest of World OECD* Middle Class per The Brookings Institution Brazil Mexico South Africa Nigeria Saudi Arabia Indonesia Thailand Egypt China India Turkey Iran *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
- 9. 9 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Primary Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs ‘10 ‘25 ‘40 Transportation Res/CommIndustrialElectricity Generation Electricity Generation Leads Growth
- 10. 10 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Primary Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Generation Leads Growth Non OECD OECD ‘10 ‘25 ‘40 Transportation Res/CommIndustrialElectricity Generation
- 11. 11 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Transportation
- 12. 12 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Sector Demand MBDOE Light Duty Marine Rail Heavy Duty Aviation Transportation Demand
- 13. 13 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy 2040 LDV Fleet Base Fleet Population Growth Improved Standard of Living Light Duty Vehicle Fleet and Demand World LDV Demand MBDOE Improved Standard of Living Population Growth Million *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries Energy Savings
- 14. 14 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Light Duty Vehicles Fleet by Type Million
- 15. 15 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy OECD* Key Growth China India Rest of World Heavy Duty Demand by Region Heavy Duty Transportation MBDOE *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries Heavy Duty Demand by Fuel MBDOE Gasoline Diesel Other Gas
- 16. 16 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Industrial
- 17. 17 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Industrial Demand Industrial Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs Other Energy Industry Heavy Industry Chemical Plastics Fertilizer Paint Steel Textiles Liquid Fuels Coal Natural Gas Agriculture Lubricants Asphalt Automobiles
- 18. 18 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Electricity Generation
- 19. 19 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Improved Standard of Living Population Growth Electricity Demand Electricity Demand by Region Thousand TWh Electricity Demand Thousand TWh United States India Europe China Key Growth 2014 Industrial Growth Base Demand
- 20. 20 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Fuel Choices for Power Generation Source: EPRI, Generation Technology Assessment Relative benefit/impact Coal Coal w/ CCS Natural Gas Nuclear Wind Solar Photovoltaic More Favorable Less Favorable Construction Cost Land Use Water Requirements Non-CO2 Emissions Waste Products Flexibility Electricity Cost CO2 Emissions Availability
- 21. 21 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Electricity Generation Fuel by Region Quadrillion BTUs ‘10 ‘25 ‘40 Key Growth Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Solar Wind Other *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
- 22. 22 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Global Demand 2040 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040 1.0% 2010 0.8% 1.6% 2.3%0.5% 5.8% 1.8% 0.1%
- 23. 23 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy CO2 Emissions
- 24. 24 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy World Emissions Billion metric tonnes CO2 Emissions by Region OECD* Rest of World India China Key Growth *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries Emissions per Capita Tonnes / Person ‘10 ‘40
- 25. 25 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Supply
- 26. 26 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Conventional Crude & Condensate Liquids Supply MBDOE World Supply by Type Trillion Barrels Crude & Condensate Resource Estimates Biofuels Other Tight Oil Oil Sands Natural Gas Liquids Deepwater Developed Conventional Crude & Condensate New Conventional C&C Development Source: USGS and IEA historical estimates
- 27. 27 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Liquids Trade Balance by Region North America MBDOE Other Natural Gas Liquids Biofuels Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater Conventional C&C Development Conventional Crude & Condensate Demand ‘10 ‘30‘20 ‘40‘10 ‘20 ‘30 ‘40
- 28. 28 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Liquids Trade Balance by Region North America Latin America Europe Russia/ Caspian Africa Middle East Asia Pacific MBDOE Biofuels Natural Gas Liquids Other Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater Conventional C&C Development Conventional Crude & Condensate Demand ‘10 ‘30 ‘40‘20
- 29. 29 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Gas Trade Balance by Region North America Latin America Europe Russia/ Caspian Africa Middle East Asia Pacific BCFD ‘10 ‘30 ‘40‘20 Demand Unconventional Production Conventional Production
- 30. 30 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Indicative trade flows Energy Trade
- 31. 31 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Local Production Pipeline LNG Local Production Energy Trade BCFD Gas DemandLiquids Demand MBDOE Imports/Exports
- 32. 32 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Developing Economies Dominate Growth OECD* Rest of World India China Key Growth Quadrillion BTUs Demand by Region *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
- 33. 33 ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy Energy Use Evolves Over Time Biomass Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Other Renewables Quadrillion BTUs Demand by Fuel
- 34. 34 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040