Presentation by Bem to defense industry technologists on the opportunities created by climate change. See EnviroSec'08 - London http://www.dynamixx-e2d.com/index.php/conferences/

2. Agenda
I. What drives climate change investment
II. Strategy analysis example: Capitalizing on the climate change mega trend
III. Definition of the climate change market segments and example
technologies

3. I. What drives climate change investment –
Human Population Growth
1830 the world’s population reached ONE BILLION
1930, just 100 years later the population reached 2 billion.
1960 it reached 3 billion
15 more years later in 1975, it climbed to 4 billion.
12 years later in 1987, it crossed the 5 billion mark.
12 years later in 1999 the world’s reached 6 billion
By 2050, the world’s population is estimated to be 8 billion+

4. I. What drives climate change investment --- Access to
Energy
Access to energy and future energy infrastructure have come to the forefront for investment priorities.
In fact, the link between energy and economic growth, poverty alleviation, environment and climate impacts
is becoming increasingly visible.
Millions of Barrels per Day of Oil Equivalent
Source: Exxon Mobil

5. II. Strategy analysis example
AeroVironment Inc.
AV develops and produces Unmanned Aircraft Systems and
Efficient Electric Energy Technologies that enable our customers
to rewrite the rules - of engagement, productivity, efficiency and
safety - to their advantage. AV is relentlessly committed to delivering
and supporting innovations that help our customers succeed.
AV Product Groups
• Unmanned Aircraft Systems
• EV Charging Systems
• EV Test Systems
• Clean Energy Systems

6. III. Adjacent Defense Markets
a) Environmental Impact Management
b) Human Migration
c) Earth Polar Operations
d) Managing and Providing Energy
e) Big Science Space Solar, Weather Engineering

7. Defense Adjacent Market Segment Potential
Revenue
Environmental Impact Management $5 billion
Human Migration $ 10 billion
Earth Polar Operations $ 10 billion
Managing and Providing Energy $ 100 billion
Big Science $ 20 billion
$750 billion dollars
per year R&D
funding with
Increasing amounts
for climate change
III. Adjacent Defense Markets

8. III.a Environmental Impact Management
Key environmental
performance metrics
tracked and reported
eg. Greenhouse gas
emissions
Informed strategic
and policy decision
making
Informed
operational and
tactical decision
making
Mathematical models
are used to integrate
environmental data,
make an assessment,
and generate forecasts
Environmental data
observation,
analysis, and
forecasting
• Satellites
• Sensors
• Optical devices
• Trace chemistry
• Radar
• Weather
instruments
• Information
technology
• Network
technology
• Computer
processing
• Algorithms
• Data storage
• Information
technology
• Network
technology
• Climate Science
• Earth Science
• Data access
• Image processing
• Communications
• Decision making
frameworks
• Metrics
• Standardized
measurement
devices
• Data storage and
retrieval
ey
echnologies
Example Customers
The European Environment Agency The United Kingdom’s Met Office
The United States Environmental Protection Agency The United States National Climatic Data Center
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin NASA’s Earth Science Mission Directorate
European Space Agency Observing the Earth Program Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
China National Space Administration Russian Federal Space Program
ROSHYDROMET India’s Department of Space Remote Sensing Programs
Definition
Climate Monitoring Climate Modeling Near Decisions Long Decisions Feedback

9. III.a Environmental Impact Management Example
Technology
Thailand's Theos imaging satellite a 750-kilogram (1,650-pound) spacecraft is designed to supply 2-meter
panchromatic and 15-meter multispectral wide-swath imagery for cartography, land use, agriculture and other
products. EADS Astrium, which built the $130 million Thai spacecraft. Launched in 2008.

10. III.b Human Migration
Key
Technologies
Example
Customers
Definition Climate change alone is unlikely to trigger state failure in any state out to 2030, but the
impacts will worsen existing problems—such as poverty, social tensions, environmental
degradation, ineffectual leadership, and weak political institutions. Economic migrants will
perceive additional reasons to migrate. Of the 191 million international migrants last year,
about 115 million lived in developed countries, according to UN figures. Three-quarters of all
migrants lived in just 28 countries in 2005, with one every five migrants living in the United
States.
• Border Fences
• Integrated cameras and sensors,
• Ground-based radar,
• Mobile surveillance systems,
• Unmanned aerial systems
• Human identification systems
United States Department Homeland Security
Western Government s Armed Forces
World Governing Organizations
Afghan refugee

11. III.b Human Migration Example Technology
Climate models predict between 59.6% and 75% of the land in Mexico has and will become
unsuitable for maize production due to climate change. Climate change is a factor in increased
desertification and increased water salinization in Mexico pushing people into urban centers and to
migrate across the border to the United States. The United States has responded by securing the
US Mexican Border.
Virtual Fences

12. III.c Earth Polar Operations
Key
Technologies
Example
Customers
Definition
A seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is possible by 2060 ---since 1979, when routine
satellite monitoring began, Arctic sea ice extent at the end of the summer melt season has
declined by more than 20%, a rate of -9.1% per decade or 100,000 km2/year. Extrapolation
is risky – the satellite-based sea ice record is short and sensitive to imprints of natural
climate variability . At stake is access to 8 billion tons of oil and gas and new global
shipping routes.
• Go-anywhere icebreakers.
• Extreme cold weather transportation equipment.
• Extreme cold weather underwater listening devices, to detect ship
movements in sensitive areas.
• Extended radar and communications coverage.
• Artic search and rescue capacity.
United States Coast Guard
United State Navy
Global Oil Companies
Canada, Finland, Norwegian Governments

13. III.c Earth Polar Operations Example Technology
US Congressional Research Service said it would cost between $800 million and $925
million for a new icebreaker. Russian state-owned oil major Rosneft has a long range
strategy to acquire 16 ice breakers by 2030.
USGCC HEALY (W-AGB 20) built by Northrop Grumman Ship Systems' Avondale
Operations a subsidiary of Northrop Grumman Corporation

14. III.d Managing and Providing Energy
Reproduced with permission from the World Resources Institute
Definition and
Key technologies
Determining the mix of energy that optimizes both climate change and energy security
Providing the energy for end users.

15. III.d Managing and Providing Energy
Example
Customers

16. III.d Managing and Providing Energy Example Technology
• The U.S. Air Force has certified blended synthetic fuels for its fleet of B-52 bombers
and continues the certification process for additional aircraft. In September 2008 the
F-22 shown here was certified.
• Rentech, Inc. (www.rentechinc.com), incorporated in 1981, has a patented
process to create synthetic fuels from a variety of feed stocks--- coal, bio mass,
municipal waste, etc.

17. III.d Managing and Providing Energy Example Technology
• 23 active U.S. utility patents
• 12 active U.S. utility patents with 518 as
primary USPC code
• 8 high quality patents (citation matrix cell
1 or 2)
• 4 high quality patents in 518 USPC
• Charles Benham most prolific inventor
Analysis provided by The Patent Board
The market capitalization of Rentech
on 10/21/08 is $125 million.
Other patent holders in this technology area include Syntroleum,
Exxon Mobil, Conoco Phillips, and Chevron. Syntroleum Corp is
of similar size with a market capitalization of $46 million.

18. III.e Big Science
Peak Year Program
Program Sector Year in 2002 billion $ in 2002 billion $
Manhattan Project Defence 1940-45 10.0$ 25.0$
Apollo Program Space 1963-72 23.8$ 184.6$
Project Independence Energy 1975-82 7.8$ 49.9$
Reagan defence Defence 1981-89 58.4$ 445.1$
War on Terror Defence 2002-04 67.7$ 187.1$

19. III.e Big Science Space Solar, Weather Engineering
Look deep into nature, and then you will understand everything better.
Albert Einstein

20. Credits
- Objective and analytical advice grounded in economic driven leading edge business practices
- Focused on winning by retrenching, adapting, and advancing in ways which reflect the ebbs and
flows of competitive moves and economic realities.
- Confidential and discreet
- Cost-effective
A Special Thanks To
http://www.patentboard.com
Gene Bem’s consultancy is