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We're so fu**cking late

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Why are CO2 emissions rising? And where do they need to go?
My presentation at Urban Future in Oslo (22 May 2019), describing latest trends and pathways to 1.5°C and 2°C

Publié dans : Environnement
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We're so fu**cking late

  1. 1. We’re so fu**ing late: Status of our CO2 reduction efforts Glen Peters (CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway) Urban Future (Oslo, 22-24 May 2019)
  2. 2. Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Where have we been, where are we going?
  3. 3. Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) Where have we been?
  4. 4. CO2 emission have a 50% reduction by 2030, net-zero by 2050, around 15GtCO2 (gross) negative emissions by 2100 Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) What does 1.5°C look like?
  5. 5. CO2 emission have a 25% reduction by 2030, net-zero by 2075, around 10GtCO2 (gross) negative emissions by 2100 Data: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA) What does 2°C look like?
  6. 6. Emission trends to 2018 Where have we been?
  7. 7. Global fossil CO2 emissions are 63% higher than in 1990, despite efforts on climate policy Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary; 2018 is a projection based on partial data. Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018 Global Fossil CO2 Emissions Emissions likely up 1-2% in 2019
  8. 8. Oil and gas are growing strongly, and it is the ups and downs of coal leading to changes in global emissions Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018 Emissions from coal, oil, gas, cement
  9. 9. Renewable energy is growing exponentially, but has so far been too slow to offset the growth in fossil energy use This figure shows “primary energy” using the BP substitution method (non-fossil sources are scaled up by an assumed fossil efficiency of 0.38) Source: BP 2018; Figueres et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018 Energy use by source (excluding bioenergy)
  10. 10. Emissions rising in the developing world, even with rapid deployment of solar & wind (e.g., China, India) Emissions have declined in Europe & North America: Reduced energy use, solar & wind deployment Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018 Emissions by region
  11. 11. What are we doing wrong?
  12. 12. Energy and climate policy (energy efficiency & renewables) are not sufficient to overcome economic growth… Source: IEA Global Energy & CO2 Status Report (GECO 2019) Why are emissions rising?
  13. 13. Additional emission reductions by non-state actors are still quite limited: up to 0.45 GtCO2e/year If initiatives are scaled up to their fullest potential, the impact could be up to 19 GtCO2e/year by 2030 Source: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2018 (EGR 2018) Are Non-State Actors the solution?
  14. 14. Take home messages
  15. 15. • Understand & acknowledge the scale of the problem • We are a collection of individuals (so work together) • Most individuals will need a helping hand • Focus on aggregated outcomes that meet goals Take home messages
  16. 16. Peters_Glen cicero.oslo.no cicerosenterforklimaforskning glen.peters@cicero.oslo.no Glen Peters

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