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Extraordinary Weather Plus

     Modern Sailplanes Produce Extreme Flights
                Prof. Emeritus Dr. Edward (Ward) Hindman

Earth and Atmospheric Science Dept., The City College of New York, NY USA
                     www.sci.ccny.cuny.edu/~hindman/




                            Ward and ‘Big Bird’
                            Photo by Baud Litt
                                                                            1
This unique 3.5 minute video highlights the beauty and grace of
soaring flight. The video was shot by Daniel Ramseier from an
alpine peak near Dent de Broc during the 2004 Swiss National
Championships. The alluring background voice is Enya’s

Enjoy!
                                                                  2
Talk Content

Rising air makes a glider a sailplane

Main sources of rising air for cross-country flying: thermals, ridge winds and
mountain waves

An extreme thermal flight, Hobbs NM, June 2011 [18m Nationals]

An extreme ridge flight, Julian PA, April 2010 [TS 34(4)]

An extreme wave flight, Argentina, November 2003 [TS 35(3 & 4)]




                                                                                 3
Rising air makes a glider a sailplane




          ‘Thrust’




www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/glidfor.html




                                                  4
Rising air makes a glider a sailplane




  Glider forward speed

              ‘Thrust’
                                   Glider sinking speed

                                                      Rising air < Sinking speed = gliding flight



Rising air > Sinking speed = soaring flight




                                                                                                    5
Sources of rising air: thermals, ridge winds and mountain waves




From Liechti and Hindman (editors), 2009: Weather Forecasting for Soaring Flight,
                                                                                    6
World Meteorological Organization - No. 1038, 70 pp.
An extreme thermal flight at the Soaring Society of America’s 18m Nationals,
                         26 June 2011, Hobbs NM




                                            ‘A8 and his gazelle Brenda’
                                  From www.ssa.org, Sailplane Racing Results and
                                  Reports




                                                                                   7
An extreme thermal flight

The morning weather forecast required to set the afternoon’s task:

Winds at the surface and aloft

Clouds and precipitation

Convective boundary layer characteristics: depth and expected lift

Thunderstorms

Task

Results




                                                                     8
Winds, clouds and precipitation

           Aviation Forecast from the National Weather Service:

            KHOB 261120Z 2612/2712 18005KT P6SM SKC
                  FM261600 20012KT P6SM SKC

 From aviationweather.gov/adds/, TAF for KHOB (Hobbs/Lea County)



          Civilian Forecast from the National Weather Service:

0312MDT SUN 26 JUN 2011: SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 108. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH

From www.weather.unisys.com, Local_Forecast (88240, Hobbs NM)




                                                                    9
Winds, clouds and precipitation




                                                 10
From www.weather.unisys.com, Satellite_Surface
Winds, clouds and precipitation




                                                    11
From www.weather.unisys.com, Upper Air Data/700mb
Winds, clouds and precipitation




                                             12
From www.weather.unisys.com, NAM/WRF Model
Convective boundary layer characteristics




                                                                         13
From www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html, HOB (32.7N 103.1W), Meteorogram
Convective boundary layer characteristics




                                                       14
From www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html, HOB, Sounding
Convective boundary layer characteristics




                                            15
From www.xcskies.com, Top-of-usable lift.
Thunderstorms




                                      16
From www.xcskies.com, Lifted index.
Task
4.5 hours minimum time on course with 360 miles of required turn-points
                 (Min: 172 miles, Max: 511 miles)




                                                                          17
Results
            (www.ssa.org Sailplane Racing/Results and Reports)
“7V (70+ year-old Ray Gimmey) smoked the field with 465 miles at 103 mph”
     4hr 32min time on course; 23% circling flight, 77% straight flight




                                                                            18
Results
“7V (70+ year-old Ray Gimmey) smoked the field with 465 miles at 103 mph”
     4hr 32min time on course; 23% circling flight, 77% straight flight




                                                                            19
Results
The ‘round, firm, and fully-packed’ cumulus             > 1000 fpm climb passing through FL170




                                                                                          20
An extreme ridge flight that originated from Julian PA on 28 April 2010




                           Julian PA




                                              Appalachian Ridge and Valley System
                                                        From Wikipedia




                                                                              21
An extreme ridge flight

The pilot, 22-year old Devin Bargainnier flying a Ventus 2b,
planned the flight because a cold front associated with a powerful
low pressure system was expected to produce favorable winds for
a large portion of the Appalachian ridge system between
Williamsport PA and Knoxville TN. Further, the forecasts for
cloud cover and precipitation for stations along the route were
acceptable.

He did not utilize the experimental thermal, ridge and wave
forecast system we - the German Weather service, the system’s
creator Dr. Olivier Liechti and me - made available to northeast
USA glider pilots during the 2010 soaring season. He was not
aware of its existence. Had he used the system, this is what he
would have learned.




                                                                     22
The forecast system

The forecast system is called Java TopTask. The system is operational in Europe
through the German Weather Service and is described in Technical Soaring.

Briefly, the system is based on numerical weather predictions of winds, clouds,
precipitation, convective boundary layer characteristics and ridge and wave lift.
The TopTask algorithm ‘flies’ a glider through the predicted weather to determine
the feasibility of a proposed task. After the flight, the predicted weather can be
validated by ‘flying’ the actual flight trajectory through the prediction.




                                                                                     23
Thermal lift forecast




                        24
Ridge lift forecast




                      25
Proposed task




                26
Actual task




              27
Validation of the forecast for thermal and ridge lift




                                             1714 km, 155 kph




                                                          1741 km, 142 kph




                                                                             28
Validation of the forecast for wave lift




                                           29
An epilogue

Pilots participating in the experiment provided positive and encouraging
evaluations. Consequently, Dr. Liechti and I attempted to make the
JavaTopTask forecast system available the 2011 soaring season. The system
needed to be connected to an operational USA numerical weather prediction
model to replace unavailable German model. No connection was made
because the necessary expert could not be found. Hence, the system was and
remains unavailable.

Baud Litt reported in the recent issue of the National Soaring Museum Journal
pioneering long-distance flights in convective, ridge and wave lift during the
winter of 2010-11 similar to the flight simulated here. Baud’s flights
originated from Fairfield PA in the Appalachian Ridge and Valley System.
Had the system been available to study Baud’s flights, the TopTask algorithm
would have benefitted especially the wave portion.




                                                                                 30
The world-record, straight-line wave flight of 2138 km (1188 smi)) from
      El Calafate to San Juan, Argentina on 23 November 2003




                                                Nimbus 4DM
                                   From www.wolframjust.de/Nimbus_4DM.html




                                                                             31
         The Route
    From maps.google.com
An extreme wave flight

The weather forecast required to set the task was provided by the Mountain
Wave Project team (www.mountain-wave-project.com):

Winds aloft

Clouds and precipitation

Wave lift




                                                                             32
Winds aloft
The Polar Front Jet Stream and the Subtropical Jet Stream were
juxtaposed ‘hosing down’ the maximum length along the Andes.




                                                                 33
Clouds and precipitation




Altocumulus standing lenticular clouds above and rotor clouds below mark the wave.
The clouds were too thin to produce precipitation.

From Liechti and Hindman (editors), 2009: Weather Forecasting for Soaring Flight,
WMO-No. 1038, 70 pp.
                                                                                    34
Wave lift
                                ‘Read’ the clouds to locate the lift




                                                                                               35
From Liechti and Hindman (editors), 2009: Weather Forecasting for Soaring Flight, WMO-No. 1038, 70 pp.
Flight: 2138 km (1188 mi), 14.5h, 147kph (82mph), 10% circling & 90% straight




                        ‘we had to climb to see    “Mendoza D-KAHG buenos dias, para transitar
                        the foehn gaps and rotor   en su zona al nivel de vuelo 245?” “Do you have
                        clouds that marked the     a sqwak HG?” “Negative”. “Then report to 2,000
                        ideal path’                ft overhead the airfield…” “Please, I’m flying a
                                                   world record. Can I fly to the west, via the
                                                                                                                     36
                                                   Laguna Diamante?” To my relief, she conceded,
‘0525 LT departed El Calafate’                     but only to an altitude of FL 195 (6,000 m).     ‘2000 LT arrived San Juan’
OSTIV-AWARD
           Joachim P. Kuettner Prize and Trophy for a 2500 km
                  free, straight distance soaring flight

‘Since it is considered possible to achieve the 2500 km free straight distance in soaring
flight with high performance sailplanes by using only meteorological power sources
such as waves, cloud streets, slope winds etc. combined with meteorological navigation
and flight techniques, OSTIV continues to comply with the wish of the late Dr. Joachim
Kuettner to set up a prize and trophy for the first flight over the 2500 km free, straight
distance.’
From Technical Soaring, 35(3), 2011




                                                                                      37
Talk Content

Rising air makes a glider a sailplane

Main sources of rising air for cross-country flying: thermals, ridge
winds and mountain waves

An extreme thermal flight, Hobbs NM, June 2011 [18m Nationals]

An extreme ridge flight, Julian PA, April 2010 [TS 34(4)]

An extreme wave flight, Argentina, November 2003 [TS 35(3 & 4)]




                                                                       38

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SSA 2012 Presentation: Extraordinary Weather and Extreme Soaring Flights

  • 1. Extraordinary Weather Plus Modern Sailplanes Produce Extreme Flights Prof. Emeritus Dr. Edward (Ward) Hindman Earth and Atmospheric Science Dept., The City College of New York, NY USA www.sci.ccny.cuny.edu/~hindman/ Ward and ‘Big Bird’ Photo by Baud Litt 1
  • 2. This unique 3.5 minute video highlights the beauty and grace of soaring flight. The video was shot by Daniel Ramseier from an alpine peak near Dent de Broc during the 2004 Swiss National Championships. The alluring background voice is Enya’s Enjoy! 2
  • 3. Talk Content Rising air makes a glider a sailplane Main sources of rising air for cross-country flying: thermals, ridge winds and mountain waves An extreme thermal flight, Hobbs NM, June 2011 [18m Nationals] An extreme ridge flight, Julian PA, April 2010 [TS 34(4)] An extreme wave flight, Argentina, November 2003 [TS 35(3 & 4)] 3
  • 4. Rising air makes a glider a sailplane ‘Thrust’ www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/glidfor.html 4
  • 5. Rising air makes a glider a sailplane Glider forward speed ‘Thrust’ Glider sinking speed Rising air < Sinking speed = gliding flight Rising air > Sinking speed = soaring flight 5
  • 6. Sources of rising air: thermals, ridge winds and mountain waves From Liechti and Hindman (editors), 2009: Weather Forecasting for Soaring Flight, 6 World Meteorological Organization - No. 1038, 70 pp.
  • 7. An extreme thermal flight at the Soaring Society of America’s 18m Nationals, 26 June 2011, Hobbs NM ‘A8 and his gazelle Brenda’ From www.ssa.org, Sailplane Racing Results and Reports 7
  • 8. An extreme thermal flight The morning weather forecast required to set the afternoon’s task: Winds at the surface and aloft Clouds and precipitation Convective boundary layer characteristics: depth and expected lift Thunderstorms Task Results 8
  • 9. Winds, clouds and precipitation Aviation Forecast from the National Weather Service: KHOB 261120Z 2612/2712 18005KT P6SM SKC FM261600 20012KT P6SM SKC From aviationweather.gov/adds/, TAF for KHOB (Hobbs/Lea County) Civilian Forecast from the National Weather Service: 0312MDT SUN 26 JUN 2011: SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 108. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH From www.weather.unisys.com, Local_Forecast (88240, Hobbs NM) 9
  • 10. Winds, clouds and precipitation 10 From www.weather.unisys.com, Satellite_Surface
  • 11. Winds, clouds and precipitation 11 From www.weather.unisys.com, Upper Air Data/700mb
  • 12. Winds, clouds and precipitation 12 From www.weather.unisys.com, NAM/WRF Model
  • 13. Convective boundary layer characteristics 13 From www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html, HOB (32.7N 103.1W), Meteorogram
  • 14. Convective boundary layer characteristics 14 From www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html, HOB, Sounding
  • 15. Convective boundary layer characteristics 15 From www.xcskies.com, Top-of-usable lift.
  • 16. Thunderstorms 16 From www.xcskies.com, Lifted index.
  • 17. Task 4.5 hours minimum time on course with 360 miles of required turn-points (Min: 172 miles, Max: 511 miles) 17
  • 18. Results (www.ssa.org Sailplane Racing/Results and Reports) “7V (70+ year-old Ray Gimmey) smoked the field with 465 miles at 103 mph” 4hr 32min time on course; 23% circling flight, 77% straight flight 18
  • 19. Results “7V (70+ year-old Ray Gimmey) smoked the field with 465 miles at 103 mph” 4hr 32min time on course; 23% circling flight, 77% straight flight 19
  • 20. Results The ‘round, firm, and fully-packed’ cumulus > 1000 fpm climb passing through FL170 20
  • 21. An extreme ridge flight that originated from Julian PA on 28 April 2010 Julian PA Appalachian Ridge and Valley System From Wikipedia 21
  • 22. An extreme ridge flight The pilot, 22-year old Devin Bargainnier flying a Ventus 2b, planned the flight because a cold front associated with a powerful low pressure system was expected to produce favorable winds for a large portion of the Appalachian ridge system between Williamsport PA and Knoxville TN. Further, the forecasts for cloud cover and precipitation for stations along the route were acceptable. He did not utilize the experimental thermal, ridge and wave forecast system we - the German Weather service, the system’s creator Dr. Olivier Liechti and me - made available to northeast USA glider pilots during the 2010 soaring season. He was not aware of its existence. Had he used the system, this is what he would have learned. 22
  • 23. The forecast system The forecast system is called Java TopTask. The system is operational in Europe through the German Weather Service and is described in Technical Soaring. Briefly, the system is based on numerical weather predictions of winds, clouds, precipitation, convective boundary layer characteristics and ridge and wave lift. The TopTask algorithm ‘flies’ a glider through the predicted weather to determine the feasibility of a proposed task. After the flight, the predicted weather can be validated by ‘flying’ the actual flight trajectory through the prediction. 23
  • 28. Validation of the forecast for thermal and ridge lift 1714 km, 155 kph 1741 km, 142 kph 28
  • 29. Validation of the forecast for wave lift 29
  • 30. An epilogue Pilots participating in the experiment provided positive and encouraging evaluations. Consequently, Dr. Liechti and I attempted to make the JavaTopTask forecast system available the 2011 soaring season. The system needed to be connected to an operational USA numerical weather prediction model to replace unavailable German model. No connection was made because the necessary expert could not be found. Hence, the system was and remains unavailable. Baud Litt reported in the recent issue of the National Soaring Museum Journal pioneering long-distance flights in convective, ridge and wave lift during the winter of 2010-11 similar to the flight simulated here. Baud’s flights originated from Fairfield PA in the Appalachian Ridge and Valley System. Had the system been available to study Baud’s flights, the TopTask algorithm would have benefitted especially the wave portion. 30
  • 31. The world-record, straight-line wave flight of 2138 km (1188 smi)) from El Calafate to San Juan, Argentina on 23 November 2003 Nimbus 4DM From www.wolframjust.de/Nimbus_4DM.html 31 The Route From maps.google.com
  • 32. An extreme wave flight The weather forecast required to set the task was provided by the Mountain Wave Project team (www.mountain-wave-project.com): Winds aloft Clouds and precipitation Wave lift 32
  • 33. Winds aloft The Polar Front Jet Stream and the Subtropical Jet Stream were juxtaposed ‘hosing down’ the maximum length along the Andes. 33
  • 34. Clouds and precipitation Altocumulus standing lenticular clouds above and rotor clouds below mark the wave. The clouds were too thin to produce precipitation. From Liechti and Hindman (editors), 2009: Weather Forecasting for Soaring Flight, WMO-No. 1038, 70 pp. 34
  • 35. Wave lift ‘Read’ the clouds to locate the lift 35 From Liechti and Hindman (editors), 2009: Weather Forecasting for Soaring Flight, WMO-No. 1038, 70 pp.
  • 36. Flight: 2138 km (1188 mi), 14.5h, 147kph (82mph), 10% circling & 90% straight ‘we had to climb to see “Mendoza D-KAHG buenos dias, para transitar the foehn gaps and rotor en su zona al nivel de vuelo 245?” “Do you have clouds that marked the a sqwak HG?” “Negative”. “Then report to 2,000 ideal path’ ft overhead the airfield…” “Please, I’m flying a world record. Can I fly to the west, via the 36 Laguna Diamante?” To my relief, she conceded, ‘0525 LT departed El Calafate’ but only to an altitude of FL 195 (6,000 m). ‘2000 LT arrived San Juan’
  • 37. OSTIV-AWARD Joachim P. Kuettner Prize and Trophy for a 2500 km free, straight distance soaring flight ‘Since it is considered possible to achieve the 2500 km free straight distance in soaring flight with high performance sailplanes by using only meteorological power sources such as waves, cloud streets, slope winds etc. combined with meteorological navigation and flight techniques, OSTIV continues to comply with the wish of the late Dr. Joachim Kuettner to set up a prize and trophy for the first flight over the 2500 km free, straight distance.’ From Technical Soaring, 35(3), 2011 37
  • 38. Talk Content Rising air makes a glider a sailplane Main sources of rising air for cross-country flying: thermals, ridge winds and mountain waves An extreme thermal flight, Hobbs NM, June 2011 [18m Nationals] An extreme ridge flight, Julian PA, April 2010 [TS 34(4)] An extreme wave flight, Argentina, November 2003 [TS 35(3 & 4)] 38