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Federal Budget
in Pictures
2012
$0.5 trillion
$1.0 trillion
$1.5 trillion
$2.0 trillion
$2.5 trillion
$3.0 trillion
$3.5 trillion
$4.0 trillion
$0.5 trillion
$1.0 trillion
$1.5 trillion
$2.0 trillion
$2.5 trillion
$3.0 trillion
$3.5 trillion
$4.0 trillion
Federal
Revenue
$0.5 trillion
$1.0 trillion
$1.5 trillion
$2.0 trillion
$2.5 trillion
$3.0 trillion
$3.5 trillion
$4.0 trillion
Debt and
Deficits
Federal
Spending
$0.5 trillion
$1.0 trillion
$1.5 trillion
$2.0 trillion
$2.5 trillion
$3.0 trillion
$3.5 trillion
$4.0 trillion
Budget Chart Book
Entitlements
Federal Budget
in Pictures
2012
$0.5 trillion
$1.0 trillion
$1.5 trillion
$2.0 trillion
$2.5 trillion
$3.0 trillion
$3.5 trillion
$4.0 trillion
$0.5 trillion
$1.0 trillion
$1.5 trillion
$2.0 trillion
$2.5 trillion
$3.0 trillion
$3.5 trillion
$4.0 trillion
Federal
Revenue
$0.5 trillion
$1.0 trillion
$1.5 trillion
$2.0 trillion
$2.5 trillion
$3.0 trillion
$3.5 trillion
$4.0 trillion
Debt and
Deficits
Federal
Spending
$0.5 trillion
$1.0 trillion
$1.5 trillion
$2.0 trillion
$2.5 trillion
$3.0 trillion
$3.5 trillion
$4.0 trillion
Budget Chart Book
Entitlements
The Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies
Copyright©2012TheHeritageFoundation
214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE
Washington, DC 20002
(202) 546-4400
heritage.org
iii
Federal spending and debt are out of control,
and if America does not change course, the
future will be dramatically worse. Now more than
ever, it is crucial that Americans understand what
our nation’s spending, taxes, and debt mean for
them and their families. The Heritage Foundation’s
Federal Budget in Pictures offers a unique tool
to learn about the federal budget in a clear and
compelling way.
These pictures reveal the urgent need to
rein in spending. The federal budget is on an
unsustainable course, because Publicly Held Debt
Is Set to Skyrocket (p. 30) despite Taxes Soaring
Past Highest Level Ever (p. 24). Federal Spending
per Household Is Skyrocketing (p. 2), and Federal
Spending Exceeds Federal Revenue by More
than $1 Trillion (p. 3). If Congress fails to adopt
the transformational reforms necessary to cut
spending and stabilize the debt, U.S. Debt Is on
Track to Fuel an Economic Crisis (p. 38).
Runaway Spending, Not Inadequate Tax Revenue,
Is Responsible for Future Deficits (p. 7). Medicare
Is Adding to Federal Deficits Faster Than Other
Government Spending Programs (p. 44), and Social
Security Deficits Are Permanent and Growing (p.
45). Meanwhile, Medicare and Other Entitlements
Are Crowding Out Spending on Defense (p. 8), a core
constitutional function of government.
Some suggest raising taxes to cover budget
deficits. However, Balancing the Budget Without
Cutting Spending Would Cause Taxes to Skyrocket
(p. 50) to the point where Hiking Taxes to Balance
the Budget Would Require Doubling Tax Rates (p. 51).
Taxing the Wealthy to Balance the Budget Will Not
Work (p. 52), as this would necessitate raising tax
rates to mathematically impossible levels.
About the Federal Budget in Pictures
iv
President Obama’s Budget Hikes Taxes by $2
Trillion (p. 23) even though Increasing Tax Rates
Does Not Necessarily Lead to Higher Income Tax
Receipts (p. 25). Higher taxes on working, saving,
and investing would, however, discourage the
productive activities that enable the American
economy to flourish and the American people
to prosper. American businesses are already
hamstrung internationally, as the U.S. Has the
Highest Corporate Tax Rate (p. 21).
Bold, transformational reforms are needed
to solve America’s spending and debt crises.
The Heritage plan, Saving the American Dream,
achieves this through spending, entitlement, and
tax reforms. It reduces the size of government,
encourages personal fiscal responsibility, and
fosters economic growth. It balances the federal
budget in ten years—without raising taxes.
The Federal Budget in Pictures will help all
Americans understand the severity of the nation’s
current fiscal situation and appreciate the growing
magnitude of decisions that lawmakers must
confront to fix the debt, cut spending, and restore
prosperity in America.
v
FEDERAL SPENDING
	 Federal Spending per Household Is Skyrocketing.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................2
	 Federal Spending Exceeds Federal Revenue by More than $1 Trillion...............................................................................................................................................................3
	 Federal Spending Grew Nearly 12 Times Faster than Median Income...............................................................................................................................................................4
	 What if Families Handled Finances Like the Federal Government Does?................................................................................................................................................. 5
	 Mandatory Spending Has Increased Nearly Six Times Faster than Discretionary Spending.....................................................................6
	 Runaway Spending, Not Inadequate Tax Revenue, Is Responsible for Future Deficits...............................................................................................7
	 Medicare and Other Entitlements Are Crowding Out Spending on Defense......................................................................................................................................8
	 National Defense Spending Would Plummet Under Obama’s Budget.................................................................................................................................................................9
	 Budget Control Act Sequestration Would Hit Defense Hardest.....................................................................................................................................................................................10
	 Obama Budget Would Make Defense the Lowest Budget Priority...............................................................................................................................................................................11
	 More than Half of All Federal Spending Will Be on Entitlement Programs in 2012.......................................................................................................12
	 Total Welfare Spending Is Rising Despite Attempts at Reform.........................................................................................................................................................................................13
	 More than 70 Percent of Federal Spending Goes to Dependence Programs.....................................................................................................................................14
	 Cut Spending, Fix the Debt, and Restore Prosperity................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15
FEDERAL REVENUE
	 Taxes per Household Have Risen Dramatically.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................18
Table of Contents
vi
	 Top 10 Percent of Earners Paid 71 Percent of Federal Income Taxes .................................................................................................................................................................19
	 Federal Revenues by Source.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 20
	 U.S. Has the Highest Corporate Tax Rate.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................21
	 Obamacare’s Barrage of Tax Hikes..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................22
	 Obama’s Budget Hikes Taxes by $2 Trillion......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................23
	 Taxes Soaring Past Highest Level Ever.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................24
	 Increasing Tax Rates Does Not Necessarily Lead to Higher Income Tax Receipts...........................................................................................................25
	 Tax Revenues Return to Historical Average....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................26
	 Heritage’s New Flat Tax Simplifies the Tax System.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................27
DEBT AND DEFICITS
	 Publicly Held Debt Set to Skyrocket....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................30
	 Each American’s Share of Publicly Held Debt Is Skyrocketing...........................................................................................................................................................................................31
	 Obama’s Budget Fails to Solve the Debt Crisis Despite $2 Trillion in Tax Hikes....................................................................................................................32
	 Obama’s Budget Continues Unprecedented Deficits.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................33	
	 Federal Budget Deficits Will Reach Levels Never Seen in the U.S..............................................................................................................................................................................34
	 Rising Deficits Drive U.S. Debt Limit Higher, Faster...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................35
	 Interest On the Debt Will Nearly Double Over the Next Decade..................................................................................................................................................................................36
vii
	 Interest on the Debt Exceeds Spending for Many Programs.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 37
	 U.S. Debt on Track to Fuel Economic Crisis.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................38
	 Debt to Grow Unless Government Spending Is Reduced................................................................................................................................................................................................................39
ENTITLEMENTS
	 Entitlement Spending Will Nearly Double by 2050.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................42
	 Tax Revenues Devoured By Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security in 2045...........................................................................................................................43
	 Medicare Adding to Federal Deficits Faster than Other Government Spending Programs.........................................................................44
	 Social Security Deficits are Permanent and Growing................................................................................................................................................................................................................................45
	 Without Entitlement Reform, Federal Spending Will Exceed 40 Percent of the Economy by 2050....................................46
	 Discretionary Spending Cuts Alone Will Not Balance the Budget............................................................................................................................................................................47
	 Even Eliminating Defense Spending Completely Would Not Balance the Budget...........................................................................................................48
	 Letting Tax Cuts Expire Will Not Balance the Budget............................................................................................................................................................................................................................49
	 Balancing the Budget Without Cutting Spending Would Cause Taxes to Skyrocket....................................................................................................50
	 Hiking Taxes to Balance the Budget Would Require Doubling Tax Rates................................................................................................................................................ 51
	 Taxing the Wealthy to Balance the Budget Will Not Work...........................................................................................................................................................................................................52
	 Government Policy Reform Needed to Keep Spending Low and End Deficits Without Raising Taxes..........................53
Federal Spending
Spending is at record levels and is still
growing, threatening economic freedom.
2
heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 1 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Office of Management and Budget, and Congressional Budget Office.
INFLatIoN-adJuSted doLLarS (2012)Federal Spending
per Household
Is Skyrocketing
the federal government is
spending more per
household than ever before.
Since 1965, spending per
household has grown by 152
percent, from $11,900 in 1965
to $30,015 in 2012. From
2012 to 2022, it is projected
to rise to $34,602—a 15
percent increase.
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
2022: $34,602
$11,900
2009—Stimulus package and bailouts: $31,542
2012:
$30,015
Actual Projected
3
heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 2 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Office of Management and Budget.
INFLatIoN-adJuSted doLLarS (2012)Federal Spending
Exceeds Federal
Revenue by More
than $1 Trillion
Since 1965, spending has
risen constantly. While
federal revenues are
recovering from the recent
recession, spending is
growing sharply, resulting in
four consecutive years of
deficits exceeding $1 trillion.
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
$0
$1 trillion
$2 trillion
$3 trillion
$4 trillion
n
n
n
est. 2012:
$1.08
trillion
deficit
$3.60
trillion
$2.52
trillion
Spending
revenue
4
heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 3 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Office of Management and Budget.
PerCeNt ChaNge IN INFLatIoN-adJuSted doLLarS (2012)Federal Spending
Grew Nearly
12 Times Faster
than Median Income
When federal spending
grows faster than americans’
paychecks, the burden of
government on taxpayers
becomes greater. over the
past four decades,
median-income americans’
earnings have risen only 24
percent, while spending has
increased 288 percent.
+287.5%
1970: $926 billion
2010: $3.6 trillion
+24.2%
1970: $41,358
2010: $51,360
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
total Federal
Spending
Median household
Income
5
heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 4 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: Congressional Budget Office and U.S. Census Bureau.
INFLatIoN-adJuSted doLLarS (2012)What if Families
Handled Finances
Like the Federal
Government Does?
In 2010, median family
income was $51,360. If a
typical family followed the
federal government’s lead, it
would spend $73,319 and put
30 cents of every dollar spent
on a credit card. this family
would have racked up
$325,781 in credit card
debt—like a mortgage, only
without the house. What
credit card company would
continue lending money to
this family?
Ifatypical
familyspentlike
thegovernment,
itwouldspend
$73,319
(equivalentto
$3.6trillion)...
...eventhough
ithadonly
earned $51,360
($2.5trillion)...
...whichwould
leaveitwith a
one-yeardeficit of
$21,959
($1.08trillion).
Thatdeficit—and
borrowingtopay
forit—wouldbea
partofits
growingfamily
debt of
$325,781
($16trillion).
Each block
represents $1,000
6
heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 5 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Office of Management and Budget.
INFLatIoN-adJuSted doLLarS (2012)Mandatory
Spending Has
Increased Nearly
Six Times Faster
than Discretionary
Spending
Mandatory spending—
primarily entitlements and
interest—is set on budgetary
autopilot, growing without
congressional debate. It has
increased almost six times
faster than discretionary
spending, including defense,
which is the part of federal
spending subject to annual
budgets.
$0
$1 trillion
$2 trillion
$3 trillion
$4 trillion
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Discretionary
Mandatory
2012: $3.57 trillion total
(Mandatory spending: 63%)
1965: $633.6 billion total
(Mandatory spending: 29%)
7
heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 6 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
PerCeNtage oF gdPRunaway Spending,
Not Inadequate
Tax Revenue,
Is Responsible
for Future Deficits
the main driver behind
long-term deficits is
government spending, not
low revenue. While revenue
will surpass its historical
average of 18.1 percent of
gdP by 2018, spending
remains above its historical
average of 20.2 percent,
reaching 22.1 percent by
2022, even after $2.1 trillion
in spending cuts in the
Budget Control act.
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
Spending
Revenue
18.1%
20.2%
Revenue
Spending
averages,
1960–
2008:
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Actual Projected
2012:
23.3%
2022:
22.1%
2022: 18.3%
2012:
16.1%
8
heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 7 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Office of Management and Budget.
PerCeNtage oF gdPMedicare and Other
Entitlements Are
Crowding Out
Spending on
Defense
ever-increasing entitlement
spending is putting pressure
on key spending priorities,
such as national defense, a
core constitutional function
of government. defense
spending has declined
significantly over time, even
when the wars in Iraq and
afghanistan are included, as
spending on the three major
entitlements—Social
Security, Medicare, and
Medicaid—has more than
tripled.
1965
Note: 2012 figures estimated.
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2012:
9.7%
2012:
4.5%
7.4%
2.5%
1976 was the
first year
entitlement
spending
exceeded
defense
spending
Entitlements
Medicare, Medicaid,
and Social Security
Defense
9
heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 8 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Office of Management and Budget.
PerCeNtage oF gdPNational Defense
Spending Would
Plummet Under
Obama’s Budget
President obama’s “lean
defense” strategy would
create a hollow force and
exacerbate today’s readiness
crisis. decreases in funding
for the core defense program
mean losing capabilities that
are crucial for the military to
fulfill its constitutional duty
to provide for the common
defense.
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2022:
2.5%
4.1%
Post-9/11
average:
9.5%
2012:
4.5%
Actual Projected
10
heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 9 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
NoMINaL doLLarSBudget Control Act
Sequestration
Would Hit Defense
Hardest
the Budget Control act’s
$1.2 trillion automatic
sequestration cuts, out of
$46.3 trillion in total
spending, would impose
draconian cuts on defense
(on top of an estimated $407
billion in cuts from its
spending caps). this would
slash the defense budget and
jeopardize the u.S. military’s
ability to defend the nation.
entitlement spending—the
biggest part of the budget—
would scarcely be touched by
comparison.
Entitlement Spending Total Spending, 2013–2021
Budget Authority
Cuts due to sequestration
$26.1 trillion
$171 billion
Non-Defense
Discretionary
Spending
$11.3 trillion
$322 billion
Defense
Spending
$5.3 trillion
$492
billion
Net Interest
$3.6
trillion
$169 billion
Share oF totaL
SeQueStratIoN CutS
Entitlement
Spending
14.8%
Non-Defense
Discretionary Spending
27.9%
Defense
Spending
42.6%
Net
Interest
14.6%
11
heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 10 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Office of Management and Budget.
NoMINaL doLLarSObama Budget
Would Make
Defense the Lowest
Budget Priority
President obama’s budget
would lower defense
spending below other major
budget priorities, forcing cuts
to personnel levels and
weakening military
readiness. By 2018, the u.S.
would spend more on
interest on the debt than on
protecting the country.
$0
$0.5 trillion
$1.0 trillion
$1.5 trillion
$2.0 trillion
$2.5 trillion
$3.0 trillion
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Defense
Net Interest
all other
Spending
Medicare,
Medicaid, and
Social Security
$631 billion
$602 billion
12
heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 11 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Office of Management and Budget.
PerCeNtage oF FY2012 SPeNdINgMore than Half
of All Federal
Spending Will Be
on Entitlement
Programs in 2012
Medicare, Medicaid, and
Social Security—along with
other entitlements such as
food stamps, unemployment,
and housing assistance—
make up 62 percent of all
federal spending. In contrast,
spending on foreign aid
represents about 1 percent.
Medicare,
Medicaid, and
other health
Care
62%
Entitlement Programs
Social
Security
Welfare
Programs
and other
entitlements
22% 21% 19%
all other
Spending
8%
Net Interest 6%
education 4%
Foreign affairs 1%
National defense 19%
50%
13
heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 12 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from current and previous White House Office of Management and Budget documents
and other official government sources.
INFLatIoN-adJuSted doLLarS (2011)Total Welfare
Spending Is Rising
Despite Attempts
at Reform
total means-tested welfare
spending (cash, food,
housing, medical care, and
social services to the poor)
has increased more than
17-fold since the beginning of
Lyndon Johnson’s War on
Poverty in 1964. though the
current trend is
unsustainable, the obama
administration would
increase future welfare
spending rather than enact
true policy reforms.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
$0
$200 billion
$400 billion
$600 billion
$800 billion
$1 trillion
1964
War on
Poverty
begins
1981
reagan
“slashes”
welfare
1996
reform
“ends
welfare”
2011: $910 billion
14
heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 13 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: The Heritage Foundation’s Index of Dependence on Government.
Share oF totaL FederaL SPeNdINgMore than 70
Percent of Federal
Spending Goes to
Dependence
Programs
government dependence is
driving budget deficits and
federal debt. More than 70
percent of federal spending
goes to 47 government
dependence programs,
including housing, farm
subsidies, and the three
largest entitlements,
Medicare, Medicaid, and
Social Security.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1962 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
1962:
28.3%
1990:
48.5%
2003:
68.3%
2010:
70.5%
15
heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 14 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: Current projections: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario). Heritage
Plan: Calculations by the Center for Data Analysis based on data provided by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. For more information, go to savingthedream.org.
PerCeNtage oF gdPCut Spending,
Fix the Debt, and
Restore Prosperity
By rapidly lowering total
federal spending, Saving the
American Dream: The Heritage
Plan to Fix the Debt, Cut
Spending, and Restore
Prosperity would balance the
budget by 2021 and keep it
balanced permanently,
without raising taxes.
CURRENT PROJECTIONS HERITAGE PLAN
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
33.9%
18.7%
17.6%
18.5%
Spending
Revenue
Spending
Revenue
Federal Revenue
America’s growing tax burden is a drag
on the economy and will reach record
levels without policy changes.
18
heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 1 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Office of Management and Budget.
INFLatIoN-adJuSted doLLarS (2011)Taxes per
Household Have
Risen Dramatically
though the economic
downturn has temporarily
lowered overall tax revenues,
the tax burden on americans
is still high.
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
1965:
$11,554
2000:
$24,701
2007:
$23,610
2011:
$19,409
19
heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 2 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Internal Revenue Service.
PerCeNtage oF FederaL INCoMe taXeS aNd INCoMe earNed (2009)Top 10 Percent of
Earners Paid 71
Percent of Federal
Income Taxes
top earners are the target for
new tax increases, but the
federal income tax system is
already highly progressive.
the top 10 percent of income
earners paid 71 percent of all
federal income taxes in 2009
though they earned 43
percent of all income. the
bottom 50 percent paid 2
percent of income taxes but
earned 13 percent of total
income. about half of tax
filers paid no federal income
tax at all.
This
groupof
income
earners...
...earned
thisshare
ofall
income...
...andpaid
thisshare
offederal
income
taxes.
2%–5%
15%
22%
Bottom
50%
13%
2%
25%–50%
21%
10%
10%–25%
23%
17%
5%–10%
11%
12%
Top 1%
17%
37%
20
heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 3 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
PerCeNtage oF totaL FederaL reVeNue (2011)Federal Revenues
by Source
Most federal revenues come
from individual taxpayers.
Personal income taxes are
the largest portion of total
tax revenues. Social Security
and Medicare payroll taxes
are the second-largest
source.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Individual
taxes
Social
Insurance
(Payroll)
Corporate
taxes
Customs
duties,
Misc.
excise
taxes
estate
and gift
taxes
47.4%
35.6%
7.9%
5.7%
3.1%
0.3%
$1,091.5 billion
$818.8
$181.1
$131.3
$72.4
$7.4
Total: $2.3 trillion
21
heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 4 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
CoMBINed CorPorate taX rateSU.S. Has the
Highest Corporate
Tax Rate
high federal and state
corporate tax rates make it
difficult for u.S.
headquartered businesses to
compete internationally. u.S.
rates have been consistently
higher than the average of
industrialized nations. In
april 2012, Japan reduced its
corporate tax rate to 36.8
percent, making the u.S. total
corporate tax rate the
highest.
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
38%
40%
42%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (est.)
39.26%
United States
25.47%
OECD average
(comprises
developed
nations, such
as Canada,
France, United
Kingdom, and
Switzerland)
36.8% Japan
22
heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 5 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Joint Committee on Taxation.
BILLIoNS oF NoMINaL doLLarSObamacare’s
Barrage of Tax
Hikes
obamacare imposes
numerous tax hikes which
total more than $500 billion
over 10 years. obamacare’s
higher tax rates on income
and investment will slow
economic growth, leaving
hardworking american
families and businesses
worse off. a particularly
harmful new payroll tax on
investment income goes into
effect in January 2013.
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
$0.1
$12.4
$42.1
$62.8
$68.7
$101.5
$9.8
Tax on “Cadillac” plans
Individual and employer mandates
Health insurance tax
Increase in Medicare HI tax and
application to investment income
for high earners
Feeonmedicaldevicemanufacturers
New restrictions and penalties
on HSA and FSA accounts
Fee on pharmaceutical companies
Revenue from 8 other new taxes
$91.1
$37.9
$74.9
23
heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 6 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the Office of Management and Budget and the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
BILLIoNS oF NoMINaL doLLarSObama’s Budget
Hikes Taxes by
$2 Trillion
President obama’s FY 2013
budget includes about $1.5
trillion in tax hikes. other
proposals bring the true size
of obama’s tax hikes to
over $2 trillion. this
includes letting the Bush tax
cuts expire for high-income
earners and small
businesses and imposing
additional taxes on these
groups. obama also
proposes a higher death tax
and the institution of new
taxes, such as the punitive
bank tax.
$0 $500 billion $1 trillion $1.5 trillion
tax increases on high-income earners and small businesses
New tax cuts
higher taxes on businesses operating internationally
higher death tax
repeal inventory valuation rules
Increase unemployment insurance tax
Impose a bank tax
higher taxes on energy companies
IrS program integrity cap, insurance company tax increase,
and other miscellaneous tax increases
$1,433.1
$147.5
$143.3
$86.8
$61.8
$61.3
$51.2
$98.0
–$75.3
24
heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 7 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the Congressional Budget Office and Office of Management and Budget.
PerCeNtage oF gdPTaxes Soaring Past
Highest Level Ever
taxes are projected to
increase rapidly under
different policy scenarios. If
the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts
expire and more
middle-income americans
are required to pay the
alternative minimum tax
(aMt), taxes will reach
unprecedented levels. the
tax burden will climb even if
those tax breaks are
extended. President obama’s
budget, which cuts some
taxes and raises others,
increases the overall tax
burden.
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
hIStorICaL taX
reVeNue
highest tax burden
in u.S. history:
20.6% (2000)
average tax
Burden (1959–
2008): 18.1%
TAX CUTS EXPIRE
(current law)
OBAMA BUDGET
FY 2013
Actual Projected
Tax cuts made
permanent,
AMT fixed
25
heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 8 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: Office of Management and Budget and the Tax Foundation.
PerCeNtage oF gdPIncreasing Tax
Rates Does Not
Necessarily Lead
to Higher Income
Tax Receipts
tax cuts can create
incentives for individuals to
work, save, and invest, which
can generate more revenue.
the most dramatic decline in
the top individual income tax
rate, from 70 percent to 28
percent, occurred during the
reagan administration,
during which tax receipts
remained relatively constant
as a share of the economy.
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012*
* Projected
70%
7.1%
91%
50%
28% 39.6%
7.7%
35% 35%
7.8% 9.2% 8% 7.2% 7.5%
toP INdIVIduaL
taX rate
INdIVIduaL taX
reCeIPtS
26
heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 9 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: Office of Management and Budget and Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario).
PerCeNtage oF gdPTax Revenues
Return to Historical
Average
Since World War II, tax
receipts have averaged
around 18.1 percent of gdP.
receipts have fallen due to
the recession, but as the
economy recovers, they will
rise above the historical
average level by the end of
the decade, even if all the
2001 and 2003 tax cuts are
made permanent.
10%
15%
20%
25%
1945 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2022
1945:
20.4%
1950:
14.4%
2000:
20.6%
2010:
15.1%
2022:
18.3%
average historical revenue
(1959–2008):
18.1%
Actual Projected
27
heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 10 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: Heritage Foundation calculations and the Internal Revenue Service.
MargINaL taX rateS (2012)Heritage’s New Flat
Tax Simplifies the
Tax System
the heritage Foundation’s
New Flat tax (NFt), part of
Saving the American Dream,
replaces today’s complex tax
system with one that is
simple and fair. the New Flat
tax would help more
americans save and invest,
and it would encourage
economic growth without
raising taxes.
TYPICAL TAX RATES TODAY NEW FLAT TAX
In these two examples, total marginal tax rates include
individual income and payroll taxes.
the NFt replaces all income,
payroll, and death taxes, and
a slew of excises.
30.3% 28%
40.3%
Payroll TaxPayroll Tax
15.3%
Income TaxIncome Tax
15.0%
Income TaxIncome Tax
25.0%
Payroll TaxPayroll Tax
15.3%
Debt and Deficits
Excessive spending has created record
levels of debt and deficits, and the worst
is yet to come, threatening opportunity
and prosperity for younger generations.
30
heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 1 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: Heritage Foundation calculations based on Office of Management and Budget and Congressional Budget Office data.
PerCeNtage oF gdPPublicly Held Debt
Set to Skyrocket
runaway spending on
Medicare, Medicaid, and
Social Security will drive
federal debt to unsustainable
levels over the next few
decades. total national debt
consists of publicly held debt
and intergovernmental debt.
Intergovernmental debt is
the amount that the
government owes to specific
programs or agencies, such
as the Social Security trust
Fund. Publicly held debt is
more relevant to credit
markets.
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2036
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
World War I
Great
Depression
World War II
War on Terrorism
Global Recession
1946: 108.6% 2021: 101%
2036: 195%
World War I
Great
Depression
World War II
War on Terrorism
Global Recession
1946: 108.6% 2021: 101%
2036: 195%
31
heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 2 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario).
INFLatIoN-adJuSted doLLarS (2012)Each American’s
Share of Publicly
Held Debt Is
Skyrocketing
as Washington continues to
spend dramatically more
than it can afford, every
american will be on the hook
for increasing levels of debt.
Without reining in spending,
the amount of debt per
citizen will skyrocket.
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2036
$0
$30,000
$60,000
$90,000
$120,000
$150,000
Actual Projected
1970: $6,435
2001:
$14,534
2031: $102,108
2036: $135,547
2012: $36,267
32
heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 3 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: Congressional Budget Office and Office of Management and Budget.
PerCeNtage oF gdPObama’s Budget
Fails to Solve the
Debt Crisis
Despite $2 Trillion
in Tax Hikes
In 2008, publicly held debt
as a percentage of the
economy (gdP) was 40.5
percent, nearly four points
below the post-World War II
average. Since then, the debt
has increased by 45 percent.
the President’s FY 2013
budget would increase the
debt to 76.5 percent by 2022,
despite $2 trillion in tax
hikes.
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
1946: 108.7%
Post-WWII
average: 44.2%
1993:
49.3%
2008:
40.5%
2012:
74.2%
2022:
76.5%
Actual Projected
33
heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 4 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Office of Management and Budget.
Budget deFICItS aS a PerCeNtage oF gdP, BY adMINIStratIoNObama’s Budget
Continues
Unprecedented
Deficits
the President is responsible
for submitting an annual
budget to Congress and has
the authority to veto
legislation, including
irresponsible spending.
Most administrations have
run small but manageable
deficits, but President
obama’s unprecedented
budget deficits pose serious
economic risks.
–8%
–6%
–4%
–2%
0%
Kennedy Johnson Nixon Ford Carter Reagan Bush Clinton Bush Obama
–1.0% –0.9%
–2.4%
–4.3% –4.3%
–0.1%
–3.2%
–8.3%
BushBushFord CarterNixonJohnsonn ReaganKennedyy J Clinton Obama
–1.6%
–3.5%
34
heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 5 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario).
PerCeNtage oF gdPFederal Budget
Deficits Will Reach
Levels Never Seen
in the U.S.
unless entitlements are
reformed, spending on
Medicare, Medicaid, and
Social Security will drive
deficits to catastrophic
levels. While recent budget
deficits have reached
unprecedented levels,
future deficits will be
dramatically worse.
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2000:
–2.4%
2009:
10.1%
2085: 57.5%
historical average
(1959–2008): 2.1%
35
heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 6 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: Congressional Research Service, U.S. Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget.
NoMINaL doLLarSRising Deficits Drive
U.S. Debt Limit
Higher, Faster
the Budget Control act, a
result of the contentious 2011
debt ceiling debate,
increased the debt limit by
$2.1 trillion, but failed to rein
in the key driver of spending
and debt: entitlement
spending. Congress first
placed a statutory limit on
the national debt in 1917, in
the Second Liberty Bond act.
It has been raised 13 times
since 2001.
$0
$2 trillion
$4 trillion
$6 trillion
$8 trillion
$10 trillion
$12 trillion
$14 trillion
$16 trillion
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012
0
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
Largest one-year change: +$1.9 trillion, 2010
Budget Control act, 2011: +$900 billion
Note: Figure for 2012 is current as of April 6.
2012: $16.39 trillion
Budget Control act, 2012: +$1.2 trillion
unchanged for 5 years,
1997–2001 ($5.95 trillion)
Since 2001,
the debt
limit has
been raised
13 times, for
a total of
$10.4 trillion
36
heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 7 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: Congressional Budget Office and Office of Management and Budget.
INFLatIoN-adJuSted doLLarS (2012)Interest On the
Debt Will Nearly
Double Over the
Next Decade
as the publicly held debt
grows, net interest payments
will increase dramatically,
even assuming that interest
rates remain low. under
current projections, real net
interest costs would more
than double over the next
decade.
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2022
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
Actual Projected
1990:
$294 billion
2022: $524 billion
2012: $224 billion
37
heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 8 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Office of Management and Budget.
BILLIoNS oF doLLarS (2011)Interest on the Debt
Exceeds Spending
for Many Programs
In 2011, the u.S. spent more
on net interest—interest paid
on publicly held debt—than it
spent on many federal
departments, including
education and Labor.
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
Net
Interest
Department of
Agriculture
Department of
Labor
Department of
Veterans
Affairs
Department of
Transportation
Department of
Education
Department of
Homeland
Security
$227.1
$132.0 $126.9
$77.3
$65.5
$45.7
$139.4
38
heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 9 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: International Monetary Fund and Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario).
PerCeNtage oF gdPU.S. Debt on Track
to Fuel Economic
Crisis
Many european countries,
like greece and Italy, are
suffering financial or budget
crises as a result of mounting
debt. Countries such as Spain
are not far behind. unless the
u.S. controls spending,
america’s debt will surpass
those of troubled nations,
leading to similar economic
woes.
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2035: U.S.
debt at
187% GDP
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
U.S. DEBT TRAJECTORY
2011: U.S. debt at 67% GDP
(Credit rating downgraded by S&P)
2000: U.S. debt
at 34% GDP
greece
153%
Spain
56%
Japan
131%
u.k.
73%
Italy
100%
Comparisons
are to other
nations’ 2011
levels of debt.
Spain
39
heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 10 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: Current projections: Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario). Heritage Plan: Calculations by the Center for Data Analysis based on
data provided by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. For more information, go to savingthedream.org.
PerCeNtage oF gdPDebt to Grow
Unless Government
Spending Is
Reduced
Without significant spending
reforms, publicly held debt is
projected to reach 187
percent of gdP by 2035.
under the heritage plan,
Saving the American Dream,
future federal spending
would be reduced by about
half, which would
dramatically lower the debt
to 29 percent of gdP.
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
68%
2011:
187%
2035:
29%
2035:
CurreNt
ProJeCtIoNS
SaVINg the
aMerICaN
dreaM
Entitlements
Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security
spending is set to explode, placing enormous
pressure on other priorities such as defense
and the rest of the budget.
42
heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 1 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario).
PerCeNtage oF gdPEntitlement
Spending Will
Nearly Double
by 2050
Spending on Medicare,
Medicaid, Social Security,
and the obamacare
subsidies will soar as 78
million baby boomers retire
and health care costs climb.
total spending on federal
health care programs will
more than double. Future
generations will be left with
an untenable debt burden.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
3.6% 4.2%
5.9%
7.4%
8.6%1.9%
2.7%
3.4%
4.0%
4.5%
4.8%
5.2%
6.0%
6.0%
5.9%
10.3%
12.1%
15.3%
17.4%
Medicare
Medicaid,
obamacare
Subsidies
Social
Security
total19.0%
43
heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 2 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario).
PerCeNtage oF gdPTax Revenues
Devoured By
Medicare, Medicaid,
and Social Security
in 2045
Spending on Medicare,
Medicaid, the obamacare
subsidies, and Social Security
will devour all revenues by
2045. entitlement spending
is already crowding out vital
constitutional functions, such
as defense.
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2085
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Medicare
Medicaid,
obamacare
Subsidies,
ChIP
Social
Security
actual
revenue
average
historical
revenue: 18.1%
1970:
3.9%
2011:
10.4%
2085:
25.7%2045: Entitlement spending
matches tax revenue average
Actual Projected
44
heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 3 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario).
PerCeNtage oF gdPMedicare Adding
to Federal Deficits
Faster than Other
Government
Spending Programs
entitlement spending is the
main cause of long-term
runaway federal deficits.
Medicare is the
fastest-growing program due
to retiring baby boomers, the
effects of an aging
population, and rising
healthcare costs.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2011 2015 2020 2030 20402025 2035 2045 2050
Medicare
all other
Non-Interest
Spending
Social
Security
Medicaid,
obamacare
Subsidies
45
heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 4 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Social Security Administration (OASI and DI Trust Fund Data and 2011 Trustees Report).
BILLIoNS oF doLLarS (2011)Social Security
Deficits are
Permanent and
Growing
Social Security began running
deficits in 2010, paying out
$48.9 billion more in benefits
than it received through
payroll taxes. Nor will these
deficits ever end, meaning
that without reforms, Social
Security will continue to add
billions to the deficit and
debt each year.
–$350
–$300
–$250
–$200
–$150
–$100
–$50
$0
$50
$100
Deficit
Surplus
1987 1990 1995 2000 2005
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
2010: $48.9 billion deficit
2035: $344 billion deficit
46
heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 5 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario).
PerCeNtage oF gdPWithout
Entitlement Reform,
Federal Spending
Will Exceed 40
Percent of the
Economy by 2050
the major entitlements—
Medicare, Medicaid, the
obamacare subsidies, and
Social Security—are pushing
spending to unsustainable
levels. these programs must
be restructured to prevent
crippling debt or tax burdens
on future generations.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2000 2010 2020 2030 20402005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2050
Actual Projected
Medicare
Medicaid,
obamacare
Subsidies,
ChIP
Social
Security
defense
other
Net Interest
actual
revenue
average historical
revenue (1959–
2008): 18.1%
2050: 42.8%
47
heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 6 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Office of Management and Budget.
aNNuaL SPeNdINg (2012)Discretionary
Spending Cuts
Alone Will Not
Balance the Budget
annual spending on
entitlement programs is
massive compared to other
federal spending priorities.
Cutting discretionary
spending is necessary, but
cuts to foreign aid alone or
pulling out of afghanistan
will not close the deficit.
entitlement programs must
be reformed.
global War
on terrorism
$115.1 billion
Foreign aid
$24.2 billion
NaSa
$17.6 billion
Corporation for
Public Broadcasting
$445 million
Entitlements
(Medicare, Medicaid,
Social Security, and other
mandatory programs,
plus their net interest)
$2.48 TRILLION
48
heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 7 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
PerCeNtage oF gdPEven Eliminating
Defense Spending
Completely Would
Not Balance the
Budget
unsustainable entitlement
spending is the key driver of
future deficits. rather than
tackle them directly, some
would cut defense. But even
if spending on this crucial
national priority was
eliminated completely,
entitlements would continue
to drive deficits to
unmanageable levels.
1975 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
total
Spending
total Spending with No
defense Spending
Beginning in 2013
total
Spending
total Spending with No
defense Spending
Beginning in 2013
Medicare
Medicaid,
obamacare
Subsidies,
ChIP
Social
Security
all other
Spending
Net Interest
33.8%
DEFENSE
Actual
Revenue
Historical Revenue: 18.1%
49
heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 8 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
PerCeNtage oF gdPLetting Tax Cuts
Expire Will Not
Balance the Budget
Some call for letting all 2001
and 2003 tax cuts expire,
including subjecting the
middle class to the
alternative minimum tax, in
order to balance the budget.
under this scenario,
unaffordable spending would
still rise, and economic
growth and job creation
would suffer.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
Spendinghistorical
revenue: 18.1%
revenue
2055: 29.9%
Medicare
Medicaid,
obamacare
Subsidies,
ChIP
Social
Security
defense
other
Net Interest
Spendinghistorical
r 181%
revenue
2
revenue: 18.1%
Actual Projected
Deficit Spending
50
heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 9 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data (Alternative Fiscal Scenario).
PerCeNtage oF gdPBalancing the
Budget Without
Cutting Spending
Would Cause Taxes
to Skyrocket
america is running massive
deficits, and a balanced
budget requirement is often
considered a way to rein in
red ink. Without serious
entitlement and spending
reforms, the level of taxes
required to balance the
budget would reach
economically stagnating
levels.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
actual
revenue
revenue Needed
to Balance Budgetrevenue to Balance Budget
actual
Spending
Actual Projected
2013: 23.2%
2036: 27.4%
2012: 16.2%
Medicare
Medicaid,
obamacare
Subsidies,
ChIP
Social
Security
all other
Spending
Net Interest
51
heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 10 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Source: Congressional Budget Office.
MARGINAL INCOME TAX RATESHiking Taxes to
Balance the Budget
Would Require
Doubling Tax Rates
The costs of Medicare,
Medicaid, and Social Security
are rising substantially.
Paying for this spending
solely through federal
income tax increases would
require more than a two-fold
increase of current tax rates,
even for the lowest tax
bracket.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2008 2050 2082
Lowest Bracket Middle Bracket Highest Bracket Corporate Taxes
2008 2050 2082 2008 2050 2082 2008 2050 2082
10%
19%
25% 25%
47%
63%
35%
66%
88%
35%
66%
88%
52
heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 11 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: Internal Revenue Service and Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario).
CurreNt taX rateS aNd taX rateS NeCeSSarY to CLoSe deFICItTaxing the Wealthy
to Balance the
Budget Will Not
Work
Some argue for taxing the
wealthy to reduce federal
deficits. however, hiking
taxes on taxpayers in the two
highest brackets would
increase their tax rates to
mathematically impossible
levels. to close the 2035
deficit, the top two tax rates
would increase to 159
percent and 166 percent, and
in 2050 they would reach
236 percent and 246 percent.
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
CURRENT TAX RATE
Second-
Highest
Bracket
Highest
Bracket
Second-
Highest
Bracket
Highest
Bracket
Second-
Highest
Bracket
Highest
Bracket
33% 35%
159% 166%
236%
246%
RATES NEEDED TO
CLOSE THE DEFICIT
IN 2035
RATES NEEDED TO
CLOSE THE DEFICIT
IN 2050
53
heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 12 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012
Sources: Heritage Foundation calculations by the Center for Data Analysis based current projections, data provided by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, and
CDA policy models.
reVeNue aNd SPeNdINg aS a PerCeNtage oF gdPGovernment Policy
Reform Needed to
Keep Spending Low
and End Deficits
Without Raising
Taxes
Bold, transformational
reforms are needed to solve
america’s spending and debt
crises. the heritage plan,
Saving the American Dream,
solves these crises through
spending, entitlement, and
tax reforms. It reduces the
size of government,
encourages personal fiscal
responsibility, and fosters
economic growth. It balances
the federal budget by 2021
and does not raise taxes. 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
entitlements
(Medicaid,
Medicare,
Obamacare
Subsidies,
Social
Security)
defense
all other
Net Interest
2011: 24.7%
SPeNdINg
reVeNue
54
The charts in this publication are based primarily on data available as of February 2012 from the
Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The charts
using OMB data display the historical growth of federal spending, revenue, and debt to 2011, while the
charts using CBO data show both historical and projected growth from as early as 1940 to as far as 2085.
Projections based on OMB data are taken from the President’s budget for fiscal year 2013.
The charts show annual data except where calculations are made for Administration averages. Debt
limit data are based on the limit in effect at the end of the calendar year. All spending and revenue data
are based on the federal fiscal year. Prior to 1976, the fiscal year was from July 1 to June 30. That year, the
current format of October 1 to September 30 was implemented. In the charts, the transition is omitted for
simplicity.
Charts designating presidential Administrations begin with the fiscal year in which the Administration
presented its first budget. In the case of 2009—an atypical year in which much was spent before the
Administration’s first fiscal year budget (FY 2010), all revenue and spending up to the CBO January 2009
“Budget and Economic Outlook” is attributed to President George W. Bush. All revenue and spending
thereafter is attributed to President Obama.
There are different ways to calculate average historic levels of revenue, spending, and debt. Such
averages vary due to the time periods covered. In this publication, these averages span 50 years (1959–
2008), encompassing post–World War II and pre–Great Recession years.
Technical Notes
55
Emily Goff
Research Associate, Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies
Romina Boccia
Research Coordinator, Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies
John Fleming
Senior Data Graphics Editor
Authors
56
The Entitlements Initiative is one of 10 Transformational Initiatives making up The Heritage Founda-
tion’s Leadership for America campaign. For more products and information related to this initiative or to
learn more about the Leadership for America campaign, please visit heritage.org.
The Heritage Foundation is a research and educational institution—a think tank—whose mission is to
formulate and promote conservative public policies based on the principles of free enterprise, limited gov-
ernment, individual freedom, traditional American values, and a strong national defense.
Our vision is to build an America where freedom, opportunity, prosperity, and civil society flourish. As
conservatives, we believe the values and ideas that motivated our Founding Fathers are worth conserving.
As policy entrepreneurs, we believe the most effective solutions are consistent with those ideas and values.
The Federal Budget in Pictures is available online with
enhanced features. Go to heritage.org/FederalBudget
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All budget-chart-book-2012

  • 1. Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 $0.5 trillion $1.0 trillion $1.5 trillion $2.0 trillion $2.5 trillion $3.0 trillion $3.5 trillion $4.0 trillion $0.5 trillion $1.0 trillion $1.5 trillion $2.0 trillion $2.5 trillion $3.0 trillion $3.5 trillion $4.0 trillion Federal Revenue $0.5 trillion $1.0 trillion $1.5 trillion $2.0 trillion $2.5 trillion $3.0 trillion $3.5 trillion $4.0 trillion Debt and Deficits Federal Spending $0.5 trillion $1.0 trillion $1.5 trillion $2.0 trillion $2.5 trillion $3.0 trillion $3.5 trillion $4.0 trillion Budget Chart Book Entitlements
  • 2. Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 $0.5 trillion $1.0 trillion $1.5 trillion $2.0 trillion $2.5 trillion $3.0 trillion $3.5 trillion $4.0 trillion $0.5 trillion $1.0 trillion $1.5 trillion $2.0 trillion $2.5 trillion $3.0 trillion $3.5 trillion $4.0 trillion Federal Revenue $0.5 trillion $1.0 trillion $1.5 trillion $2.0 trillion $2.5 trillion $3.0 trillion $3.5 trillion $4.0 trillion Debt and Deficits Federal Spending $0.5 trillion $1.0 trillion $1.5 trillion $2.0 trillion $2.5 trillion $3.0 trillion $3.5 trillion $4.0 trillion Budget Chart Book Entitlements
  • 3. The Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies Copyright©2012TheHeritageFoundation 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20002 (202) 546-4400 heritage.org
  • 4. iii Federal spending and debt are out of control, and if America does not change course, the future will be dramatically worse. Now more than ever, it is crucial that Americans understand what our nation’s spending, taxes, and debt mean for them and their families. The Heritage Foundation’s Federal Budget in Pictures offers a unique tool to learn about the federal budget in a clear and compelling way. These pictures reveal the urgent need to rein in spending. The federal budget is on an unsustainable course, because Publicly Held Debt Is Set to Skyrocket (p. 30) despite Taxes Soaring Past Highest Level Ever (p. 24). Federal Spending per Household Is Skyrocketing (p. 2), and Federal Spending Exceeds Federal Revenue by More than $1 Trillion (p. 3). If Congress fails to adopt the transformational reforms necessary to cut spending and stabilize the debt, U.S. Debt Is on Track to Fuel an Economic Crisis (p. 38). Runaway Spending, Not Inadequate Tax Revenue, Is Responsible for Future Deficits (p. 7). Medicare Is Adding to Federal Deficits Faster Than Other Government Spending Programs (p. 44), and Social Security Deficits Are Permanent and Growing (p. 45). Meanwhile, Medicare and Other Entitlements Are Crowding Out Spending on Defense (p. 8), a core constitutional function of government. Some suggest raising taxes to cover budget deficits. However, Balancing the Budget Without Cutting Spending Would Cause Taxes to Skyrocket (p. 50) to the point where Hiking Taxes to Balance the Budget Would Require Doubling Tax Rates (p. 51). Taxing the Wealthy to Balance the Budget Will Not Work (p. 52), as this would necessitate raising tax rates to mathematically impossible levels. About the Federal Budget in Pictures
  • 5. iv President Obama’s Budget Hikes Taxes by $2 Trillion (p. 23) even though Increasing Tax Rates Does Not Necessarily Lead to Higher Income Tax Receipts (p. 25). Higher taxes on working, saving, and investing would, however, discourage the productive activities that enable the American economy to flourish and the American people to prosper. American businesses are already hamstrung internationally, as the U.S. Has the Highest Corporate Tax Rate (p. 21). Bold, transformational reforms are needed to solve America’s spending and debt crises. The Heritage plan, Saving the American Dream, achieves this through spending, entitlement, and tax reforms. It reduces the size of government, encourages personal fiscal responsibility, and fosters economic growth. It balances the federal budget in ten years—without raising taxes. The Federal Budget in Pictures will help all Americans understand the severity of the nation’s current fiscal situation and appreciate the growing magnitude of decisions that lawmakers must confront to fix the debt, cut spending, and restore prosperity in America.
  • 6. v FEDERAL SPENDING Federal Spending per Household Is Skyrocketing.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................2 Federal Spending Exceeds Federal Revenue by More than $1 Trillion...............................................................................................................................................................3 Federal Spending Grew Nearly 12 Times Faster than Median Income...............................................................................................................................................................4 What if Families Handled Finances Like the Federal Government Does?................................................................................................................................................. 5 Mandatory Spending Has Increased Nearly Six Times Faster than Discretionary Spending.....................................................................6 Runaway Spending, Not Inadequate Tax Revenue, Is Responsible for Future Deficits...............................................................................................7 Medicare and Other Entitlements Are Crowding Out Spending on Defense......................................................................................................................................8 National Defense Spending Would Plummet Under Obama’s Budget.................................................................................................................................................................9 Budget Control Act Sequestration Would Hit Defense Hardest.....................................................................................................................................................................................10 Obama Budget Would Make Defense the Lowest Budget Priority...............................................................................................................................................................................11 More than Half of All Federal Spending Will Be on Entitlement Programs in 2012.......................................................................................................12 Total Welfare Spending Is Rising Despite Attempts at Reform.........................................................................................................................................................................................13 More than 70 Percent of Federal Spending Goes to Dependence Programs.....................................................................................................................................14 Cut Spending, Fix the Debt, and Restore Prosperity................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 15 FEDERAL REVENUE Taxes per Household Have Risen Dramatically.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................18 Table of Contents
  • 7. vi Top 10 Percent of Earners Paid 71 Percent of Federal Income Taxes .................................................................................................................................................................19 Federal Revenues by Source.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 20 U.S. Has the Highest Corporate Tax Rate.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................21 Obamacare’s Barrage of Tax Hikes..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................22 Obama’s Budget Hikes Taxes by $2 Trillion......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................23 Taxes Soaring Past Highest Level Ever.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................24 Increasing Tax Rates Does Not Necessarily Lead to Higher Income Tax Receipts...........................................................................................................25 Tax Revenues Return to Historical Average....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................26 Heritage’s New Flat Tax Simplifies the Tax System.......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................27 DEBT AND DEFICITS Publicly Held Debt Set to Skyrocket....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................30 Each American’s Share of Publicly Held Debt Is Skyrocketing...........................................................................................................................................................................................31 Obama’s Budget Fails to Solve the Debt Crisis Despite $2 Trillion in Tax Hikes....................................................................................................................32 Obama’s Budget Continues Unprecedented Deficits.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................33 Federal Budget Deficits Will Reach Levels Never Seen in the U.S..............................................................................................................................................................................34 Rising Deficits Drive U.S. Debt Limit Higher, Faster...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................35 Interest On the Debt Will Nearly Double Over the Next Decade..................................................................................................................................................................................36
  • 8. vii Interest on the Debt Exceeds Spending for Many Programs.................................................................................................................................................................................................. 37 U.S. Debt on Track to Fuel Economic Crisis.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................38 Debt to Grow Unless Government Spending Is Reduced................................................................................................................................................................................................................39 ENTITLEMENTS Entitlement Spending Will Nearly Double by 2050.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................42 Tax Revenues Devoured By Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security in 2045...........................................................................................................................43 Medicare Adding to Federal Deficits Faster than Other Government Spending Programs.........................................................................44 Social Security Deficits are Permanent and Growing................................................................................................................................................................................................................................45 Without Entitlement Reform, Federal Spending Will Exceed 40 Percent of the Economy by 2050....................................46 Discretionary Spending Cuts Alone Will Not Balance the Budget............................................................................................................................................................................47 Even Eliminating Defense Spending Completely Would Not Balance the Budget...........................................................................................................48 Letting Tax Cuts Expire Will Not Balance the Budget............................................................................................................................................................................................................................49 Balancing the Budget Without Cutting Spending Would Cause Taxes to Skyrocket....................................................................................................50 Hiking Taxes to Balance the Budget Would Require Doubling Tax Rates................................................................................................................................................ 51 Taxing the Wealthy to Balance the Budget Will Not Work...........................................................................................................................................................................................................52 Government Policy Reform Needed to Keep Spending Low and End Deficits Without Raising Taxes..........................53
  • 9. Federal Spending Spending is at record levels and is still growing, threatening economic freedom.
  • 10. 2 heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 1 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Office of Management and Budget, and Congressional Budget Office. INFLatIoN-adJuSted doLLarS (2012)Federal Spending per Household Is Skyrocketing the federal government is spending more per household than ever before. Since 1965, spending per household has grown by 152 percent, from $11,900 in 1965 to $30,015 in 2012. From 2012 to 2022, it is projected to rise to $34,602—a 15 percent increase. $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2022: $34,602 $11,900 2009—Stimulus package and bailouts: $31,542 2012: $30,015 Actual Projected
  • 11. 3 heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 2 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Office of Management and Budget. INFLatIoN-adJuSted doLLarS (2012)Federal Spending Exceeds Federal Revenue by More than $1 Trillion Since 1965, spending has risen constantly. While federal revenues are recovering from the recent recession, spending is growing sharply, resulting in four consecutive years of deficits exceeding $1 trillion. 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 $0 $1 trillion $2 trillion $3 trillion $4 trillion n n n est. 2012: $1.08 trillion deficit $3.60 trillion $2.52 trillion Spending revenue
  • 12. 4 heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 3 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Office of Management and Budget. PerCeNt ChaNge IN INFLatIoN-adJuSted doLLarS (2012)Federal Spending Grew Nearly 12 Times Faster than Median Income When federal spending grows faster than americans’ paychecks, the burden of government on taxpayers becomes greater. over the past four decades, median-income americans’ earnings have risen only 24 percent, while spending has increased 288 percent. +287.5% 1970: $926 billion 2010: $3.6 trillion +24.2% 1970: $41,358 2010: $51,360 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% total Federal Spending Median household Income
  • 13. 5 heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 4 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: Congressional Budget Office and U.S. Census Bureau. INFLatIoN-adJuSted doLLarS (2012)What if Families Handled Finances Like the Federal Government Does? In 2010, median family income was $51,360. If a typical family followed the federal government’s lead, it would spend $73,319 and put 30 cents of every dollar spent on a credit card. this family would have racked up $325,781 in credit card debt—like a mortgage, only without the house. What credit card company would continue lending money to this family? Ifatypical familyspentlike thegovernment, itwouldspend $73,319 (equivalentto $3.6trillion)... ...eventhough ithadonly earned $51,360 ($2.5trillion)... ...whichwould leaveitwith a one-yeardeficit of $21,959 ($1.08trillion). Thatdeficit—and borrowingtopay forit—wouldbea partofits growingfamily debt of $325,781 ($16trillion). Each block represents $1,000
  • 14. 6 heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 5 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Office of Management and Budget. INFLatIoN-adJuSted doLLarS (2012)Mandatory Spending Has Increased Nearly Six Times Faster than Discretionary Spending Mandatory spending— primarily entitlements and interest—is set on budgetary autopilot, growing without congressional debate. It has increased almost six times faster than discretionary spending, including defense, which is the part of federal spending subject to annual budgets. $0 $1 trillion $2 trillion $3 trillion $4 trillion 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Discretionary Mandatory 2012: $3.57 trillion total (Mandatory spending: 63%) 1965: $633.6 billion total (Mandatory spending: 29%)
  • 15. 7 heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 6 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data. PerCeNtage oF gdPRunaway Spending, Not Inadequate Tax Revenue, Is Responsible for Future Deficits the main driver behind long-term deficits is government spending, not low revenue. While revenue will surpass its historical average of 18.1 percent of gdP by 2018, spending remains above its historical average of 20.2 percent, reaching 22.1 percent by 2022, even after $2.1 trillion in spending cuts in the Budget Control act. 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% Spending Revenue 18.1% 20.2% Revenue Spending averages, 1960– 2008: 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Actual Projected 2012: 23.3% 2022: 22.1% 2022: 18.3% 2012: 16.1%
  • 16. 8 heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 7 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Office of Management and Budget. PerCeNtage oF gdPMedicare and Other Entitlements Are Crowding Out Spending on Defense ever-increasing entitlement spending is putting pressure on key spending priorities, such as national defense, a core constitutional function of government. defense spending has declined significantly over time, even when the wars in Iraq and afghanistan are included, as spending on the three major entitlements—Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid—has more than tripled. 1965 Note: 2012 figures estimated. 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2012: 9.7% 2012: 4.5% 7.4% 2.5% 1976 was the first year entitlement spending exceeded defense spending Entitlements Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security Defense
  • 17. 9 heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 8 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Office of Management and Budget. PerCeNtage oF gdPNational Defense Spending Would Plummet Under Obama’s Budget President obama’s “lean defense” strategy would create a hollow force and exacerbate today’s readiness crisis. decreases in funding for the core defense program mean losing capabilities that are crucial for the military to fulfill its constitutional duty to provide for the common defense. 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2022: 2.5% 4.1% Post-9/11 average: 9.5% 2012: 4.5% Actual Projected
  • 18. 10 heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 9 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Congressional Budget Office. NoMINaL doLLarSBudget Control Act Sequestration Would Hit Defense Hardest the Budget Control act’s $1.2 trillion automatic sequestration cuts, out of $46.3 trillion in total spending, would impose draconian cuts on defense (on top of an estimated $407 billion in cuts from its spending caps). this would slash the defense budget and jeopardize the u.S. military’s ability to defend the nation. entitlement spending—the biggest part of the budget— would scarcely be touched by comparison. Entitlement Spending Total Spending, 2013–2021 Budget Authority Cuts due to sequestration $26.1 trillion $171 billion Non-Defense Discretionary Spending $11.3 trillion $322 billion Defense Spending $5.3 trillion $492 billion Net Interest $3.6 trillion $169 billion Share oF totaL SeQueStratIoN CutS Entitlement Spending 14.8% Non-Defense Discretionary Spending 27.9% Defense Spending 42.6% Net Interest 14.6%
  • 19. 11 heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 10 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Office of Management and Budget. NoMINaL doLLarSObama Budget Would Make Defense the Lowest Budget Priority President obama’s budget would lower defense spending below other major budget priorities, forcing cuts to personnel levels and weakening military readiness. By 2018, the u.S. would spend more on interest on the debt than on protecting the country. $0 $0.5 trillion $1.0 trillion $1.5 trillion $2.0 trillion $2.5 trillion $3.0 trillion 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Defense Net Interest all other Spending Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security $631 billion $602 billion
  • 20. 12 heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 11 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Office of Management and Budget. PerCeNtage oF FY2012 SPeNdINgMore than Half of All Federal Spending Will Be on Entitlement Programs in 2012 Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security—along with other entitlements such as food stamps, unemployment, and housing assistance— make up 62 percent of all federal spending. In contrast, spending on foreign aid represents about 1 percent. Medicare, Medicaid, and other health Care 62% Entitlement Programs Social Security Welfare Programs and other entitlements 22% 21% 19% all other Spending 8% Net Interest 6% education 4% Foreign affairs 1% National defense 19% 50%
  • 21. 13 heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 12 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from current and previous White House Office of Management and Budget documents and other official government sources. INFLatIoN-adJuSted doLLarS (2011)Total Welfare Spending Is Rising Despite Attempts at Reform total means-tested welfare spending (cash, food, housing, medical care, and social services to the poor) has increased more than 17-fold since the beginning of Lyndon Johnson’s War on Poverty in 1964. though the current trend is unsustainable, the obama administration would increase future welfare spending rather than enact true policy reforms. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 $0 $200 billion $400 billion $600 billion $800 billion $1 trillion 1964 War on Poverty begins 1981 reagan “slashes” welfare 1996 reform “ends welfare” 2011: $910 billion
  • 22. 14 heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 13 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: The Heritage Foundation’s Index of Dependence on Government. Share oF totaL FederaL SPeNdINgMore than 70 Percent of Federal Spending Goes to Dependence Programs government dependence is driving budget deficits and federal debt. More than 70 percent of federal spending goes to 47 government dependence programs, including housing, farm subsidies, and the three largest entitlements, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 1962 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1962: 28.3% 1990: 48.5% 2003: 68.3% 2010: 70.5%
  • 23. 15 heritage.orgFederal Spending Chart 14 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: Current projections: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario). Heritage Plan: Calculations by the Center for Data Analysis based on data provided by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. For more information, go to savingthedream.org. PerCeNtage oF gdPCut Spending, Fix the Debt, and Restore Prosperity By rapidly lowering total federal spending, Saving the American Dream: The Heritage Plan to Fix the Debt, Cut Spending, and Restore Prosperity would balance the budget by 2021 and keep it balanced permanently, without raising taxes. CURRENT PROJECTIONS HERITAGE PLAN 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 33.9% 18.7% 17.6% 18.5% Spending Revenue Spending Revenue
  • 24. Federal Revenue America’s growing tax burden is a drag on the economy and will reach record levels without policy changes.
  • 25. 18 heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 1 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Office of Management and Budget. INFLatIoN-adJuSted doLLarS (2011)Taxes per Household Have Risen Dramatically though the economic downturn has temporarily lowered overall tax revenues, the tax burden on americans is still high. 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 1965: $11,554 2000: $24,701 2007: $23,610 2011: $19,409
  • 26. 19 heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 2 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Internal Revenue Service. PerCeNtage oF FederaL INCoMe taXeS aNd INCoMe earNed (2009)Top 10 Percent of Earners Paid 71 Percent of Federal Income Taxes top earners are the target for new tax increases, but the federal income tax system is already highly progressive. the top 10 percent of income earners paid 71 percent of all federal income taxes in 2009 though they earned 43 percent of all income. the bottom 50 percent paid 2 percent of income taxes but earned 13 percent of total income. about half of tax filers paid no federal income tax at all. This groupof income earners... ...earned thisshare ofall income... ...andpaid thisshare offederal income taxes. 2%–5% 15% 22% Bottom 50% 13% 2% 25%–50% 21% 10% 10%–25% 23% 17% 5%–10% 11% 12% Top 1% 17% 37%
  • 27. 20 heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 3 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Congressional Budget Office. PerCeNtage oF totaL FederaL reVeNue (2011)Federal Revenues by Source Most federal revenues come from individual taxpayers. Personal income taxes are the largest portion of total tax revenues. Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes are the second-largest source. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Individual taxes Social Insurance (Payroll) Corporate taxes Customs duties, Misc. excise taxes estate and gift taxes 47.4% 35.6% 7.9% 5.7% 3.1% 0.3% $1,091.5 billion $818.8 $181.1 $131.3 $72.4 $7.4 Total: $2.3 trillion
  • 28. 21 heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 4 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). CoMBINed CorPorate taX rateSU.S. Has the Highest Corporate Tax Rate high federal and state corporate tax rates make it difficult for u.S. headquartered businesses to compete internationally. u.S. rates have been consistently higher than the average of industrialized nations. In april 2012, Japan reduced its corporate tax rate to 36.8 percent, making the u.S. total corporate tax rate the highest. 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% 40% 42% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (est.) 39.26% United States 25.47% OECD average (comprises developed nations, such as Canada, France, United Kingdom, and Switzerland) 36.8% Japan
  • 29. 22 heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 5 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Joint Committee on Taxation. BILLIoNS oF NoMINaL doLLarSObamacare’s Barrage of Tax Hikes obamacare imposes numerous tax hikes which total more than $500 billion over 10 years. obamacare’s higher tax rates on income and investment will slow economic growth, leaving hardworking american families and businesses worse off. a particularly harmful new payroll tax on investment income goes into effect in January 2013. $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 $0.1 $12.4 $42.1 $62.8 $68.7 $101.5 $9.8 Tax on “Cadillac” plans Individual and employer mandates Health insurance tax Increase in Medicare HI tax and application to investment income for high earners Feeonmedicaldevicemanufacturers New restrictions and penalties on HSA and FSA accounts Fee on pharmaceutical companies Revenue from 8 other new taxes $91.1 $37.9 $74.9
  • 30. 23 heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 6 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the Office of Management and Budget and the U.S. Department of the Treasury. BILLIoNS oF NoMINaL doLLarSObama’s Budget Hikes Taxes by $2 Trillion President obama’s FY 2013 budget includes about $1.5 trillion in tax hikes. other proposals bring the true size of obama’s tax hikes to over $2 trillion. this includes letting the Bush tax cuts expire for high-income earners and small businesses and imposing additional taxes on these groups. obama also proposes a higher death tax and the institution of new taxes, such as the punitive bank tax. $0 $500 billion $1 trillion $1.5 trillion tax increases on high-income earners and small businesses New tax cuts higher taxes on businesses operating internationally higher death tax repeal inventory valuation rules Increase unemployment insurance tax Impose a bank tax higher taxes on energy companies IrS program integrity cap, insurance company tax increase, and other miscellaneous tax increases $1,433.1 $147.5 $143.3 $86.8 $61.8 $61.3 $51.2 $98.0 –$75.3
  • 31. 24 heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 7 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: Heritage Foundation calculations based on data from the Congressional Budget Office and Office of Management and Budget. PerCeNtage oF gdPTaxes Soaring Past Highest Level Ever taxes are projected to increase rapidly under different policy scenarios. If the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts expire and more middle-income americans are required to pay the alternative minimum tax (aMt), taxes will reach unprecedented levels. the tax burden will climb even if those tax breaks are extended. President obama’s budget, which cuts some taxes and raises others, increases the overall tax burden. 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 hIStorICaL taX reVeNue highest tax burden in u.S. history: 20.6% (2000) average tax Burden (1959– 2008): 18.1% TAX CUTS EXPIRE (current law) OBAMA BUDGET FY 2013 Actual Projected Tax cuts made permanent, AMT fixed
  • 32. 25 heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 8 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: Office of Management and Budget and the Tax Foundation. PerCeNtage oF gdPIncreasing Tax Rates Does Not Necessarily Lead to Higher Income Tax Receipts tax cuts can create incentives for individuals to work, save, and invest, which can generate more revenue. the most dramatic decline in the top individual income tax rate, from 70 percent to 28 percent, occurred during the reagan administration, during which tax receipts remained relatively constant as a share of the economy. 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012* * Projected 70% 7.1% 91% 50% 28% 39.6% 7.7% 35% 35% 7.8% 9.2% 8% 7.2% 7.5% toP INdIVIduaL taX rate INdIVIduaL taX reCeIPtS
  • 33. 26 heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 9 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: Office of Management and Budget and Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario). PerCeNtage oF gdPTax Revenues Return to Historical Average Since World War II, tax receipts have averaged around 18.1 percent of gdP. receipts have fallen due to the recession, but as the economy recovers, they will rise above the historical average level by the end of the decade, even if all the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts are made permanent. 10% 15% 20% 25% 1945 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2022 1945: 20.4% 1950: 14.4% 2000: 20.6% 2010: 15.1% 2022: 18.3% average historical revenue (1959–2008): 18.1% Actual Projected
  • 34. 27 heritage.orgFederal revenue Chart 10 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: Heritage Foundation calculations and the Internal Revenue Service. MargINaL taX rateS (2012)Heritage’s New Flat Tax Simplifies the Tax System the heritage Foundation’s New Flat tax (NFt), part of Saving the American Dream, replaces today’s complex tax system with one that is simple and fair. the New Flat tax would help more americans save and invest, and it would encourage economic growth without raising taxes. TYPICAL TAX RATES TODAY NEW FLAT TAX In these two examples, total marginal tax rates include individual income and payroll taxes. the NFt replaces all income, payroll, and death taxes, and a slew of excises. 30.3% 28% 40.3% Payroll TaxPayroll Tax 15.3% Income TaxIncome Tax 15.0% Income TaxIncome Tax 25.0% Payroll TaxPayroll Tax 15.3%
  • 35. Debt and Deficits Excessive spending has created record levels of debt and deficits, and the worst is yet to come, threatening opportunity and prosperity for younger generations.
  • 36. 30 heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 1 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: Heritage Foundation calculations based on Office of Management and Budget and Congressional Budget Office data. PerCeNtage oF gdPPublicly Held Debt Set to Skyrocket runaway spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security will drive federal debt to unsustainable levels over the next few decades. total national debt consists of publicly held debt and intergovernmental debt. Intergovernmental debt is the amount that the government owes to specific programs or agencies, such as the Social Security trust Fund. Publicly held debt is more relevant to credit markets. 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2036 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% World War I Great Depression World War II War on Terrorism Global Recession 1946: 108.6% 2021: 101% 2036: 195% World War I Great Depression World War II War on Terrorism Global Recession 1946: 108.6% 2021: 101% 2036: 195%
  • 37. 31 heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 2 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario). INFLatIoN-adJuSted doLLarS (2012)Each American’s Share of Publicly Held Debt Is Skyrocketing as Washington continues to spend dramatically more than it can afford, every american will be on the hook for increasing levels of debt. Without reining in spending, the amount of debt per citizen will skyrocket. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2036 $0 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 $120,000 $150,000 Actual Projected 1970: $6,435 2001: $14,534 2031: $102,108 2036: $135,547 2012: $36,267
  • 38. 32 heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 3 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: Congressional Budget Office and Office of Management and Budget. PerCeNtage oF gdPObama’s Budget Fails to Solve the Debt Crisis Despite $2 Trillion in Tax Hikes In 2008, publicly held debt as a percentage of the economy (gdP) was 40.5 percent, nearly four points below the post-World War II average. Since then, the debt has increased by 45 percent. the President’s FY 2013 budget would increase the debt to 76.5 percent by 2022, despite $2 trillion in tax hikes. 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 1946: 108.7% Post-WWII average: 44.2% 1993: 49.3% 2008: 40.5% 2012: 74.2% 2022: 76.5% Actual Projected
  • 39. 33 heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 4 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Office of Management and Budget. Budget deFICItS aS a PerCeNtage oF gdP, BY adMINIStratIoNObama’s Budget Continues Unprecedented Deficits the President is responsible for submitting an annual budget to Congress and has the authority to veto legislation, including irresponsible spending. Most administrations have run small but manageable deficits, but President obama’s unprecedented budget deficits pose serious economic risks. –8% –6% –4% –2% 0% Kennedy Johnson Nixon Ford Carter Reagan Bush Clinton Bush Obama –1.0% –0.9% –2.4% –4.3% –4.3% –0.1% –3.2% –8.3% BushBushFord CarterNixonJohnsonn ReaganKennedyy J Clinton Obama –1.6% –3.5%
  • 40. 34 heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 5 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario). PerCeNtage oF gdPFederal Budget Deficits Will Reach Levels Never Seen in the U.S. unless entitlements are reformed, spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security will drive deficits to catastrophic levels. While recent budget deficits have reached unprecedented levels, future deficits will be dramatically worse. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2000: –2.4% 2009: 10.1% 2085: 57.5% historical average (1959–2008): 2.1%
  • 41. 35 heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 6 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: Congressional Research Service, U.S. Treasury, and Office of Management and Budget. NoMINaL doLLarSRising Deficits Drive U.S. Debt Limit Higher, Faster the Budget Control act, a result of the contentious 2011 debt ceiling debate, increased the debt limit by $2.1 trillion, but failed to rein in the key driver of spending and debt: entitlement spending. Congress first placed a statutory limit on the national debt in 1917, in the Second Liberty Bond act. It has been raised 13 times since 2001. $0 $2 trillion $4 trillion $6 trillion $8 trillion $10 trillion $12 trillion $14 trillion $16 trillion 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2012 0 n n n n n n n n Largest one-year change: +$1.9 trillion, 2010 Budget Control act, 2011: +$900 billion Note: Figure for 2012 is current as of April 6. 2012: $16.39 trillion Budget Control act, 2012: +$1.2 trillion unchanged for 5 years, 1997–2001 ($5.95 trillion) Since 2001, the debt limit has been raised 13 times, for a total of $10.4 trillion
  • 42. 36 heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 7 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: Congressional Budget Office and Office of Management and Budget. INFLatIoN-adJuSted doLLarS (2012)Interest On the Debt Will Nearly Double Over the Next Decade as the publicly held debt grows, net interest payments will increase dramatically, even assuming that interest rates remain low. under current projections, real net interest costs would more than double over the next decade. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2022 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 Actual Projected 1990: $294 billion 2022: $524 billion 2012: $224 billion
  • 43. 37 heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 8 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Office of Management and Budget. BILLIoNS oF doLLarS (2011)Interest on the Debt Exceeds Spending for Many Programs In 2011, the u.S. spent more on net interest—interest paid on publicly held debt—than it spent on many federal departments, including education and Labor. $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 Net Interest Department of Agriculture Department of Labor Department of Veterans Affairs Department of Transportation Department of Education Department of Homeland Security $227.1 $132.0 $126.9 $77.3 $65.5 $45.7 $139.4
  • 44. 38 heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 9 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: International Monetary Fund and Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario). PerCeNtage oF gdPU.S. Debt on Track to Fuel Economic Crisis Many european countries, like greece and Italy, are suffering financial or budget crises as a result of mounting debt. Countries such as Spain are not far behind. unless the u.S. controls spending, america’s debt will surpass those of troubled nations, leading to similar economic woes. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2035: U.S. debt at 187% GDP 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% U.S. DEBT TRAJECTORY 2011: U.S. debt at 67% GDP (Credit rating downgraded by S&P) 2000: U.S. debt at 34% GDP greece 153% Spain 56% Japan 131% u.k. 73% Italy 100% Comparisons are to other nations’ 2011 levels of debt. Spain
  • 45. 39 heritage.orgDebt and Deficits Chart 10 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: Current projections: Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario). Heritage Plan: Calculations by the Center for Data Analysis based on data provided by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation. For more information, go to savingthedream.org. PerCeNtage oF gdPDebt to Grow Unless Government Spending Is Reduced Without significant spending reforms, publicly held debt is projected to reach 187 percent of gdP by 2035. under the heritage plan, Saving the American Dream, future federal spending would be reduced by about half, which would dramatically lower the debt to 29 percent of gdP. 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 68% 2011: 187% 2035: 29% 2035: CurreNt ProJeCtIoNS SaVINg the aMerICaN dreaM
  • 46. Entitlements Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending is set to explode, placing enormous pressure on other priorities such as defense and the rest of the budget.
  • 47. 42 heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 1 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario). PerCeNtage oF gdPEntitlement Spending Will Nearly Double by 2050 Spending on Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and the obamacare subsidies will soar as 78 million baby boomers retire and health care costs climb. total spending on federal health care programs will more than double. Future generations will be left with an untenable debt burden. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 3.6% 4.2% 5.9% 7.4% 8.6%1.9% 2.7% 3.4% 4.0% 4.5% 4.8% 5.2% 6.0% 6.0% 5.9% 10.3% 12.1% 15.3% 17.4% Medicare Medicaid, obamacare Subsidies Social Security total19.0%
  • 48. 43 heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 2 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario). PerCeNtage oF gdPTax Revenues Devoured By Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security in 2045 Spending on Medicare, Medicaid, the obamacare subsidies, and Social Security will devour all revenues by 2045. entitlement spending is already crowding out vital constitutional functions, such as defense. 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2085 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Medicare Medicaid, obamacare Subsidies, ChIP Social Security actual revenue average historical revenue: 18.1% 1970: 3.9% 2011: 10.4% 2085: 25.7%2045: Entitlement spending matches tax revenue average Actual Projected
  • 49. 44 heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 3 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario). PerCeNtage oF gdPMedicare Adding to Federal Deficits Faster than Other Government Spending Programs entitlement spending is the main cause of long-term runaway federal deficits. Medicare is the fastest-growing program due to retiring baby boomers, the effects of an aging population, and rising healthcare costs. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2011 2015 2020 2030 20402025 2035 2045 2050 Medicare all other Non-Interest Spending Social Security Medicaid, obamacare Subsidies
  • 50. 45 heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 4 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Social Security Administration (OASI and DI Trust Fund Data and 2011 Trustees Report). BILLIoNS oF doLLarS (2011)Social Security Deficits are Permanent and Growing Social Security began running deficits in 2010, paying out $48.9 billion more in benefits than it received through payroll taxes. Nor will these deficits ever end, meaning that without reforms, Social Security will continue to add billions to the deficit and debt each year. –$350 –$300 –$250 –$200 –$150 –$100 –$50 $0 $50 $100 Deficit Surplus 1987 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2010: $48.9 billion deficit 2035: $344 billion deficit
  • 51. 46 heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 5 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario). PerCeNtage oF gdPWithout Entitlement Reform, Federal Spending Will Exceed 40 Percent of the Economy by 2050 the major entitlements— Medicare, Medicaid, the obamacare subsidies, and Social Security—are pushing spending to unsustainable levels. these programs must be restructured to prevent crippling debt or tax burdens on future generations. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2000 2010 2020 2030 20402005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2050 Actual Projected Medicare Medicaid, obamacare Subsidies, ChIP Social Security defense other Net Interest actual revenue average historical revenue (1959– 2008): 18.1% 2050: 42.8%
  • 52. 47 heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 6 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Office of Management and Budget. aNNuaL SPeNdINg (2012)Discretionary Spending Cuts Alone Will Not Balance the Budget annual spending on entitlement programs is massive compared to other federal spending priorities. Cutting discretionary spending is necessary, but cuts to foreign aid alone or pulling out of afghanistan will not close the deficit. entitlement programs must be reformed. global War on terrorism $115.1 billion Foreign aid $24.2 billion NaSa $17.6 billion Corporation for Public Broadcasting $445 million Entitlements (Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and other mandatory programs, plus their net interest) $2.48 TRILLION
  • 53. 48 heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 7 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data. PerCeNtage oF gdPEven Eliminating Defense Spending Completely Would Not Balance the Budget unsustainable entitlement spending is the key driver of future deficits. rather than tackle them directly, some would cut defense. But even if spending on this crucial national priority was eliminated completely, entitlements would continue to drive deficits to unmanageable levels. 1975 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% total Spending total Spending with No defense Spending Beginning in 2013 total Spending total Spending with No defense Spending Beginning in 2013 Medicare Medicaid, obamacare Subsidies, ChIP Social Security all other Spending Net Interest 33.8% DEFENSE Actual Revenue Historical Revenue: 18.1%
  • 54. 49 heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 8 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Congressional Budget Office. PerCeNtage oF gdPLetting Tax Cuts Expire Will Not Balance the Budget Some call for letting all 2001 and 2003 tax cuts expire, including subjecting the middle class to the alternative minimum tax, in order to balance the budget. under this scenario, unaffordable spending would still rise, and economic growth and job creation would suffer. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 Spendinghistorical revenue: 18.1% revenue 2055: 29.9% Medicare Medicaid, obamacare Subsidies, ChIP Social Security defense other Net Interest Spendinghistorical r 181% revenue 2 revenue: 18.1% Actual Projected Deficit Spending
  • 55. 50 heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 9 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Heritage Foundation calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data (Alternative Fiscal Scenario). PerCeNtage oF gdPBalancing the Budget Without Cutting Spending Would Cause Taxes to Skyrocket america is running massive deficits, and a balanced budget requirement is often considered a way to rein in red ink. Without serious entitlement and spending reforms, the level of taxes required to balance the budget would reach economically stagnating levels. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 actual revenue revenue Needed to Balance Budgetrevenue to Balance Budget actual Spending Actual Projected 2013: 23.2% 2036: 27.4% 2012: 16.2% Medicare Medicaid, obamacare Subsidies, ChIP Social Security all other Spending Net Interest
  • 56. 51 heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 10 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Source: Congressional Budget Office. MARGINAL INCOME TAX RATESHiking Taxes to Balance the Budget Would Require Doubling Tax Rates The costs of Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security are rising substantially. Paying for this spending solely through federal income tax increases would require more than a two-fold increase of current tax rates, even for the lowest tax bracket. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2008 2050 2082 Lowest Bracket Middle Bracket Highest Bracket Corporate Taxes 2008 2050 2082 2008 2050 2082 2008 2050 2082 10% 19% 25% 25% 47% 63% 35% 66% 88% 35% 66% 88%
  • 57. 52 heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 11 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: Internal Revenue Service and Congressional Budget Office (Alternative Fiscal Scenario). CurreNt taX rateS aNd taX rateS NeCeSSarY to CLoSe deFICItTaxing the Wealthy to Balance the Budget Will Not Work Some argue for taxing the wealthy to reduce federal deficits. however, hiking taxes on taxpayers in the two highest brackets would increase their tax rates to mathematically impossible levels. to close the 2035 deficit, the top two tax rates would increase to 159 percent and 166 percent, and in 2050 they would reach 236 percent and 246 percent. 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% CURRENT TAX RATE Second- Highest Bracket Highest Bracket Second- Highest Bracket Highest Bracket Second- Highest Bracket Highest Bracket 33% 35% 159% 166% 236% 246% RATES NEEDED TO CLOSE THE DEFICIT IN 2035 RATES NEEDED TO CLOSE THE DEFICIT IN 2050
  • 58. 53 heritage.orgEntitlements Chart 12 • Federal Budget in Pictures 2012 Sources: Heritage Foundation calculations by the Center for Data Analysis based current projections, data provided by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, and CDA policy models. reVeNue aNd SPeNdINg aS a PerCeNtage oF gdPGovernment Policy Reform Needed to Keep Spending Low and End Deficits Without Raising Taxes Bold, transformational reforms are needed to solve america’s spending and debt crises. the heritage plan, Saving the American Dream, solves these crises through spending, entitlement, and tax reforms. It reduces the size of government, encourages personal fiscal responsibility, and fosters economic growth. It balances the federal budget by 2021 and does not raise taxes. 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% entitlements (Medicaid, Medicare, Obamacare Subsidies, Social Security) defense all other Net Interest 2011: 24.7% SPeNdINg reVeNue
  • 59. 54 The charts in this publication are based primarily on data available as of February 2012 from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The charts using OMB data display the historical growth of federal spending, revenue, and debt to 2011, while the charts using CBO data show both historical and projected growth from as early as 1940 to as far as 2085. Projections based on OMB data are taken from the President’s budget for fiscal year 2013. The charts show annual data except where calculations are made for Administration averages. Debt limit data are based on the limit in effect at the end of the calendar year. All spending and revenue data are based on the federal fiscal year. Prior to 1976, the fiscal year was from July 1 to June 30. That year, the current format of October 1 to September 30 was implemented. In the charts, the transition is omitted for simplicity. Charts designating presidential Administrations begin with the fiscal year in which the Administration presented its first budget. In the case of 2009—an atypical year in which much was spent before the Administration’s first fiscal year budget (FY 2010), all revenue and spending up to the CBO January 2009 “Budget and Economic Outlook” is attributed to President George W. Bush. All revenue and spending thereafter is attributed to President Obama. There are different ways to calculate average historic levels of revenue, spending, and debt. Such averages vary due to the time periods covered. In this publication, these averages span 50 years (1959– 2008), encompassing post–World War II and pre–Great Recession years. Technical Notes
  • 60. 55 Emily Goff Research Associate, Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies Romina Boccia Research Coordinator, Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies John Fleming Senior Data Graphics Editor Authors
  • 61. 56 The Entitlements Initiative is one of 10 Transformational Initiatives making up The Heritage Founda- tion’s Leadership for America campaign. For more products and information related to this initiative or to learn more about the Leadership for America campaign, please visit heritage.org. The Heritage Foundation is a research and educational institution—a think tank—whose mission is to formulate and promote conservative public policies based on the principles of free enterprise, limited gov- ernment, individual freedom, traditional American values, and a strong national defense. Our vision is to build an America where freedom, opportunity, prosperity, and civil society flourish. As conservatives, we believe the values and ideas that motivated our Founding Fathers are worth conserving. As policy entrepreneurs, we believe the most effective solutions are consistent with those ideas and values.
  • 62. The Federal Budget in Pictures is available online with enhanced features. Go to heritage.org/FederalBudget • Embed or download the entire book or individual charts for blogs and presentations • Sign up to receive Budget Sense, a bi-weekly e-mail that delivers the latest on spending, taxes, and debt directly to your inbox • Share charts with your social networks through Facebook, Twitter, and more • View the interactive charts • Read in-depth research on taxes, spending, debt, and the budget Heritage.org/FederalBudget The Federal Budget in Pictures Online 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20002-4999 (202) 546-4400 heritage.org