Global Agricultural Productivity By Region - East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and North Africa, Latin America and Caribbean

1. Regional Findings: If TFP growth rate is maintained,
East Asia
300
a significant gap
Rising incomes, not population would need to be
growth, will be the primary driver of 250 met through imports.
increasing food demand in East Asia.
Food demand is estimated to grow at
3.65 percent each year between 2000
74%
200
and 2030, outpacing the region’s TFP
growth of 3.05 percent of the
past decade.
150 of total demand can be met
by maintaining the current
TFP growth rate.
PROJECTED INCREASE IN FOOD DEMAND
2000 - 2030 100
200%
00
05
10
15
20
25
30
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
150%
Food Demand Index
100%
Agricultural Output View all infographics from the 2012 GAP Report ® and
50% from TFP Growth
download the full report at globalharvestinitiative.org/
0% Projected index.php/2012-gap-report.
EAST ASIA SOUTH &
Agricultural Output
SOUTHEAST from TFP Growth
ASIA
Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
INCOME POPULATION
Source: Calculations based on data from Fischer
(2009) and Tweeten and Thompson (2008) Founded in 2009, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural
value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world. GHI believes the right policies can improve global food and nutrition
security by accelerating agricultural productivity gains while conserving natural resources. http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/

2. Regional Findings: If TFP growth rate is maintained,
South and Southeast Asia
250
a significant gap
Rising incomes, not population growth, would need to be
will be the primary driver of increasing 200 met through imports.
food demand in South and Southeast
Asia. Food demand is estimated
82%
to grow annually by 2.75 percent,
outpacing the region’s TFP growth of 150
2.48 percent of the past decade.
of total demand can be met
by maintaining the current
TFP growth rate.
100
PROJECTED INCREASE IN FOOD DEMAND
00
05
10
15
20
25
30
2000 - 2030
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
200%
150%
Food Demand Index
100% Agricultural Output
from TFP Growth View all infographics from the 2012 GAP Report ® and
50% download the full report at globalharvestinitiative.org/
Projected
index.php/2012-gap-report.
0% Agricultural Output
EAST ASIA SOUTH & from TFP Growth
SOUTHEAST
ASIA
Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
INCOME POPULATION
Source: Calculations based on data from Fischer
(2009) and Tweeten and Thompson (2008) Founded in 2009, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural
value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world. GHI believes the right policies can improve global food and nutrition
security by accelerating agricultural productivity gains while conserving natural resources. http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/

3. Regional Findings: If TFP growth rate is maintained,
Middle East and North Africa
200
a significant gap
Food demand in the Middle East and
North Africa (MENA) region is expected
would need to be
to grow at a rate of 2.14 percent by 2050, met through
outpacing the region’s TFP growth of 1.9
percent of the past decade.
150
imports and safety
net programs.
Almost half of food in the MENA region is
imported and water scarcity is increasing.
A growing food gap will need to be met 100
83%
00
05
10
15
20
25
30
through productivity increases, imports,
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
and government safety net food
assistance programs.
Food Demand Index of total demand can be met
Increasing agricultural productivity in by maintaining the current
Agricultural Output TFP growth rate.
the MENA region will rely on improved from TFP Growth
irrigation technologies, such as micro-
irrigation. Pioneered by 2012 World Food Projected View all infographics from the 2012 GAP Report ® and
Prize Laureate Dr. Daniel Hillel, micro- Agricultural Output download the full report at globalharvestinitiative.org/
irrigation is a revolutionary system that from TFP Growth index.php/2012-gap-report.
dramatically reduces the amount of water
needed to nourish crops, maintain crop Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
health, and increase yields.
Founded in 2009, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural
value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world. GHI believes the right policies can improve global food and nutrition
security by accelerating agricultural productivity gains while conserving natural resources. http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/

4. Regional Findings: If TFP growth rate is maintained,
Sub-Saharan Africa 300
a significant gap
Sub-Saharan African food demand is
projected to rise by 2.83 percent per
would need to be met
200
year from 2000 to 2030, primarily through productivity
due to population growth, the most improvements, selective
rapid of any region in the world. With expansion, intensification,
TFP growth rates of 0.5 percent on
average, a significant food demand gap and imports.
100
will become much greater unless Sub-
00
05
10
15
20
25
30
Only
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
13%
Saharan Africa accelerates productivity
growth, sustainably expands land, or Food Demand Index
intensifies production.
Agricultural Output of total demand would be
from TFP Growth met by maintaining the
PROJECTED INCREASE IN FOOD DEMAND current TFP growth rate.
Projected
2000 - 2030 Agricultural Output
160% from TFP Growth
View all infographics from the 2012 GAP Report ® and
120% download the full report at globalharvestinitiative.org/
Source: Calculations based on data
80% from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), index.php/2012-gap-report.
and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
40%
0%
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
INCOME POPULATION
Founded in 2009, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural
Source: Calculations based on data from Fischer (2009) value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world. GHI believes the right policies can improve global food and nutrition
and Tweeten and Thompson (2008) security by accelerating agricultural productivity gains while conserving natural resources. http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/

5. Regional Findings: If TFP growth rate is maintained,
Latin America and Caribbean 250
Food demand will be
The estimated growth in food demand
for the Latin America and Caribbean 200
met and exceeded,
(LAC) region is 1.8 percent per year and the region will likely
from 2000 to 2030. TFP growth from become a larger exporter.
the last decade is 2.74 percent. If that
rate is maintained or accelerated, this 150
region may expand exports, increase
biofuels production, or withdraw some
land from production for conservation
or carbon-credit strategies.
100
00
05
10
15
20
25
30
Policies that encourage productivity,
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
while sustainably managing water,
land, and forest cover, can provide an Food Demand Index
environment conducive to future Agricultural Output View all infographics from the 2012 GAP Report ® and
food exports. from TFP Growth
download the full report at globalharvestinitiative.org/
Projected
In order for the LAC region to realize Agricultural Output
index.php/2012-gap-report.
its productivity and export trade from TFP Growth
potential, governments must commit to
Source: Calculations based on data from Fuglie (2012), Fischer (2009), and Tweeten and Thompson (2008)
improvements in infrastructure.
Founded in 2009, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural
value chain to sustainably meet the demands of a growing world. GHI believes the right policies can improve global food and nutrition
security by accelerating agricultural productivity gains while conserving natural resources. http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/

6. 250
2050
1.751.84
200
TFP INDEX
150
Required
Rate of TFP Growth
100
Required Current
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
Actual TFP
125 Rate of TFP Rate of TFP
Total Factor Productivity
must continue to increase Growth Growth
to feed 9 billion by 2050. through
2050 The global level is
100 on target,
but we should recognize the
2 0 00
2 0 01
2 0 02
2 0 03
2 0 04
2 0 05
2 0 06
2 0 07
2 0 08
2 0 09
2 0 10
investment and
commitment
needed to stay on track.
Source: Global agricultural TFP growth is from Fuglie, 2012.
The required rate of TFP growth to double agricultural supply using existing resources is estimated by GHI.
Founded in 2009, the Global Harvest Initiative (GHI) is a private sector voice for productivity growth throughout the agricultural value chain to sustainably
meet the demands of a growing world. GHI believes the right policies can improve global food and nutrition security by accelerating agricultural productivity
gains while conserving natural resources. http://www.globalharvestinitiative.org/