Global Agricultural Productivity Report - 2012 Infographics
Mark Svoboda - Too Hot, Too Wet, Too Dry: Building Resilient Agroecosystems
1. The Global Harvest Initiative and
Robert B. Daugherty Water for Food Institute Present:
Too Hot, Too Wet, Too Dry:
Building Resilient Agroecosystems
March 20, 2013
#water4food
2. The Drought of 2012-2013
Mark Svoboda, Climatologist
Monitoring Program Area Leader
National Drought Mitigation Center
School of Natural Resources
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
UNL-WFI -GHI World Water Day Panel Briefing, Washington DC, March 20, 2013
6. Missouri River Mainstem System
Annual Runoff above Sioux City, IA
Million Acre-Feet
2011
Historic Drought Periods
U.D. 10%
U.Q. 25%
Median 50% 2012
L.Q. 75%
L.D. 90%
Courtesy: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Omaha, NE
7. 2012 Drought Recap
Warmest year on record for the Lower 48
states, beating 1998 by 1˚F
Every state in the contiguous U.S. had above-average
annual temperature
19 states had a record warm year
26 states Top 10 warmest
Warmest March and July on record for the U.S.
15th driest year on record for the U.S.
Driest since 1988
NE and WY driest years on record
USDM peak of 65% U.S. in drought during September
2012 was the 2nd most extreme year on
record with 11 disasters costing $1B or
more, second only to 1998
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12. 2012 Drought Impacts
Economic loss estimates
$35 billion, Aon Benfield
$50 billion, Morgan Stanley
$77 billion, Purdue University economist
Crop indemnities: $12.4 billion as of January 25th
Estimated to increase to $20 billion
2011 the previous record with $10.8 billion
State indemnities ($ billion): Illinois (1.8), Iowa
(1.4), Kansas (1.2), Nebraska (1.2), Texas (1.2)
Crop indemnities ($ billion): corn (7.8), soybeans
(1.6)
25. Final Drought 2012-2013 Thoughts
2012-13 Fall and Winter none-too-kind for most thus
far!
U.S. (contiguous) has seen a 14% decrease in areal drought
coverage since its peak (65%) last September, but we still have
51% of the U.S. in drought heading into Spring as compared
to 30% last year this time
Most improvement seen in the Southeast and eastern Corn
Belt
Great Lakes very low
Snow pack in the Rockies is a big concern (MO Basin)
So, recent storms have helped, but…..
Spring rains will be critical for soil moisture
recharge (grain/forage prospects tied to this)
No buffer/carryover coming into 2013, unlike
2012…will be living rain event to event much
earlier…heat waves likely again if below-normal soil
moisture recharge takes place
27. The Global Harvest Initiative and
Robert B. Daugherty Water for Food Institute Present:
Too Hot, Too Wet, Too Dry:
Building Resilient Agroecosystems
March 20, 2013
#water4food