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Public Opinion Landscape: Economy - 5.12.15
1. M a y 1 2 , 2 0 1 5 !
The Public’s Take –
The Economy
2. PAGE 2
TA B L E O F C O N T E N T S
Slide!
Current Economic Indicators! 3!
Economic Conditions and Views of the Future! 4!
Obama, Congress, and the Economy! 13!
Perceptions of Foreign Trade! 18!
Views on Income Inequality and Raising the Minimum Wage! 24!
Digital Snapshot on Raising Minimum Wage! 32!
3. PAGE 3
C U R R E N T E C O N O M I C I N D I C ATO R S S H O W I M P R O V E M E N T O V E R
L A S T Y E A R
INDICATOR
LAST YEAR
May 2014
NOW
May 2015
Unemployment Rate 6.3% 5.4%
Inflation Rate 1.5% -0.1%
Stock Market (DJIA) 16,583.34 18,191.11
Consumer Confidence Index 83.0 95.2
U.S. Interest Rates .25% .25%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Yahoo! Finance, The Conference Board, Trading Economics
4. E C O N O M I C C O N D I T I O N S A N D V I E W S O F T H E F U T U R E !
PAGE 4
5. PAGE 5
MAJORITY OF AMERI CANS CO NTI NUE TO FEEL T HE N AT ION IS ON
THE WRONG TRACK
The percentage of
Americans saying the nation
is heading in the right
direction hasn’t topped 50
in about a decade.!
RIGHT DIRECTION 29.5%
WRONG TRACK 59.7%
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of May 6, 2015
6. Source: CNBC AAES Fourth Quarter Survey, March 26-29, 2015 PAGE 6
BUT AMERICANS’ VI EW S O F THE ECO NO M Y ARE IM PR OVING
SLIGHTLY
How would you rate the current state of the economy? Would you say it is excellent, good, only fair, or poor?!
33%
63%
70%
60%
53% 55% 61%
49% 44% 40% 41%
33% 28% 29%
39%
29%
25%
33%
39% 37% 30%
40%
41%
42% 42%
48%
44% 42%
22%
6% 4% 6% 6% 6% 7% 9% 13% 15% 14% 17%
24% 25%
4% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Dec
2007
June
2008
Dec
2008
Dec
2009
Dec
2010
June
2011
Nov
2011
May
2012
Nov
2012
June
2013
Dec
2013
June
2014
Dec
2014
Mar
2015
Excellent
Good
Only fair
Poor
Note: “Not sure” results are not shown.
7. Source: Gallup Poll, April 9-12, 2015 PAGE 7
10% 11%
17%
21%
26%
30% 43%
89% 88%
81%
77%
71%
66%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
April 2009 April 2010 April 2011 April 2012 April 2013 April 2014 April 2015
Good time
Bad time
AMERICANS GETTING M O RE AND M O RE PO SITI VE A BOUT JOB S
Thinking about the job situation in America today, would you say that it is now a
good time or a bad time to find a quality job?!
8. Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey, March 1-5, 2015 PAGE 8
YET A PL URALITY BEL IEVE THE STATE O F THE ECO N OMY WIL L
R E M A I N T H E S A M E I N T H E C O M I N G Y E A R
During the next 12 months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?!
Same
Worse
Better
22%
38% 38%
46%
42% 41%
33%
37%
29%
29%
21%
40%
35%
45%
32%
27% 26% 27%
31%
29%
22%
20% 30%
22% 22% 22% 23%
15%
29%
30%
32%
23%
20%
9%
18%
24% 25%
24%
17%
21%
51%
37%
30% 29%
33%
36%
43%
46%
41%
39%
45%
35%
41%
34%
49% 48% 48% 48%
51%
48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Oct
2006
Oct
2008
Apr
2009
June
2009
Oct
2009
Mar
2010
June
2010
Nov
2010
Feb
2011
June
2011
Oct
2011
Mar
2012
June
2012
Oct
2012
June
2013
Sept
2013
Mar
2014
June
2014
Dec
2014
Mar
2015
Note: “Don’t know/Refused” results are not shown.
9. PAGE 9
AMERICANS THINK T HE HO USI NG M ARKET I S G ETT I NG BE TT ER,
WHILE HEALTH CARE COSTS ARE GETTING WORSE; THE
STRENGTH OF THE ECO NO M Y REM AI NS ABO UT THE SA ME
I’m going to mention some aspects of the national economic situation. For each, please tell me if you
expect things to get better in the next 12 months, worse, or about the same as the last 12 months.!
Better Worse
About the
same
Not Sure
Overall strength of the economy 34% 21% 44% 1%
Job growth 38% 22% 38% 2%
The housing market 42% 17% 37% 4%
America’s economic standing in the world 23% 36% 39% 2%
Health care costs 20% 56% 22% 2%
Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, April 6-8, 2015
10. Source: The Economist/YouGov Poll, April 4-6, 2015 PAGE 10
33%
24%
42%
48%
23%
60%
66%
49%
44%
63%
President Obama Republicans in
Congress
Consumers Businesses Wall Street
All/Most of it Some/None of it
How much responsibility do you think the following people have for the economy improving?!
MORE CREDIT IS G IVEN TO CO NSUM ERS AND BUS INE SS ES FOR
THE ECONOMY IMPROVING THAN PRESIDENT OBAMA
11. Source: CBS News National Poll, February 13-17, 2015 PAGE 11
AMERICAN FAMILY FI NANCES ARE HEAVI LY A FFE CTED B Y T HE
PRICE OF GASOLINE
How much does the price of gasoline affect your family finances – a lot, some, not much, or not at all?!
43% 28% 19% 9%
A lot Some Not much Not at all
12. Source: Gallup Economic Confidence Scores, May 2013 – April 2015 PAGE 12
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
NationalPriceofGallonofGas
EconomicConfidenceScore
Week
Economic Perception and Gas Prices
ECONOMIC CONFID ENCE SPI KES AS G AS PRICES START TO GO
D O W N , T H E N B O T H L E V E L O U T
Price of Gas
Economic Confidence Score
13. O B A M A , C O N G R E S S , A N D T H E E C O N O M Y !
PAGE 13
14. PAGE 14
OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL IN THE MID 40’S
APPROVE 46.1%
DISAPPROVE 49.5%
Obama’s Overall Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
% %
Gallup 47 47
GWU/Battleground 46 49
YouGov/Economist 46 51
CBS/Times 45 44
NBC/WSJ 48 47
Ipsos/Reuters 44 49
Obama Approval – Six New
National Polls
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of May 12, 2015
15. 60% 60%
47% 47%
34%
Clinton (1999) Eisenhower (1959) Obama (2015) Reagan (1987) G.W. Bush (2007)
PAGE 15
OVERALL OBAMA’S APPROVAL HIGHER THAN HIS
PREDECECESSOR HALFWAY THRO UG H 7 T H Y E A R
Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in May of Third
Year of 2nd Term
Weekly Approval Rating
Average
May 4 – 10, 2015
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
16. Source: Fox News Poll, March 29-31, 2015 PAGE 16
45%
42% 40%
37% 36%
33%
52% 54% 54%
58%
55%
58%
The economy Health care Terrorism Immigration Foreign policy Iran
Approve Disapprove
OBAMA ON THE ISSUES
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing on the following issues?!
17. Source: Pew Research Poll, February 18-22, 2015 PAGE 17
MOST AMERIC ANS DISAPPRO VE O F ALL LEAD ERS IN CONGRE SS ,
R E P U B L I C A N S E S P E C I A L LY
26%
36%
66%
58%
8%
7%
Republican
leaders in
Congress
Democratic
leaders in
Congress
Disapprove DKApprove
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Republican/Democratic leaders in Congress are doing?!
18. P E R C E P T I O N S O F F O R E I G N T R A D E !
PAGE 18
19. PAGE 19
MAJORITY OF AMERI CANS STI LL SEE O PPO RTUNIT Y IN
FOREIGN TRADE
What do you think foreign trade means for America? Do you see foreign trade more as an opportunity for
economic growth through increased U.S. exports or a threat to the economy from foreign imports?!
Source: Gallup Poll, February 8-11, 2015
44%
53%
54%
56%
51%52%
49%
44%
45%
43%
41%
44% 45%46%
57%
54%
58%
48%
38%
35%
36%37%
39%
41%
48%
46%
48%
52%
47%
45%46%
35%
38%
33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14
Opportunity
for economic
growth
Threat to the
economy
20. PAGE 20
MORE AMERICANS ARE STARTI NG TO THI NK T HAT F REE TRA DE
H A S H E L P E D T H E U N I T E D S TAT E S
23% 23% 25%
47%
38% 31%
23%
30% 37%
Nov-10 Nov-14 Apr-15
Has helped the U.S.
Has hurt the U.S.
Hasn't made much of a
difference
In general, do you think that free trade between the United States and foreign countries has helped the United
States, has hurt the United States, or has not made much of a difference either way?!
Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey, April 26-30, 2015 Note: “Not sure” results are not shown.
21. Source: Pew Research Poll, March 17 – June 5, 2014 PAGE 21
H O W E V E R , A M E R I C A N S U N S U R E O F T R A D E B E N E F I T S
Does trade with other countries lead to job creation in (survey country), job losses, or does it not make a difference?
Does trade with other countries lead to an increase in the wages of (survey nationality) workers, a decrease in wages,
or does it not make a difference? !
In your opinion, when foreign companies buy (survey nationality) companies, does this have a very good, somewhat
good, somewhat bad, or a very bad impact on our country?!
20%
17%
28%
44%
28%
31%
52%
45%
44%
66%
55%
57%
Trade creates jobs
Trade raises wages
Foreign companies buying domestic
companies is good
U.S.
Advanced Countries
Emerging Countries
Developing Countries
Note: Categories determined by a combination of each country’s World Bank Income
Group, GDP Per Capita (PPP), GPP (US$ Billions) and Average GDP Growth (2004-2013)
22. PAGE 22
AMERICAN, FRENCH, I TAL IAN AND JAPANESE VI EW S ON T RADE
N O T I N L I N E W I T H M O S T T P P A N D T T I P C O U N T R I E S
Does trade with other countries lead to job creation in (survey country), job losses, or does it not make a difference? !
55%
50%
24%
20%
15%
13%
TPP Countries
TTIP Countries
France
U.S.
Japan
Italy
% job creation
Source: Pew Research Poll, March 17 – June 5, 2014
23. Source: Pew Research Poll, February 26 – March 1, 2015 PAGE 23
MOST AMERIC ANS THI NK T HE TTI P AND TPP TRA DE
AGRE EMENTS ARE A G OO D THI NG
As you may know, the U.S. and the EU are negotiating
a free trade agreement called the Transatlantic Trade
and Investment Partnership, or TTIP. Do you think this
trade agreement will be a good thing for our country or
a bad thing? !
As you may know, the United States is negotiating a
free trade agreement with eleven countries in Asia and
Latin America called the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Do
you think this trade agreement will be a good thing for
our country or a bad thing?!
50%
21%
15%
2%
11% Good thing
Bad thing
Haven't heard enough
Neither good nor bad
DK/Refused
55%
25%
10%
1%
8%
Source: Pew Research Poll, February 27 – March 2, 2014
TTIP TPP
24. V I E W S O N I N C O M E I N E Q U A L I T Y A N D R A I S I N G T H E M I N I M U M W A G E !
PAGE 24
25. Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, April 6-8, 2015 PAGE 25
MOST AMERIC ANS THI NK T HE G AP BETW EEN T HE RICH AND
EVERYONE ELSE IS GET TI NG BI G G ER
Do you have a sense that the gap between the rich and everyone else is getting
bigger, staying about the same, or getting smaller compared to 10 years ago?!
69% 17% 10% 4%
Getting bigger Staying the same Getting smaller
Not sure
Total
76%
12%
3%
9%
Democrats
72%
16%
2%
10%
Independents
Getting bigger Staying the same
Not sure Getting smaller
59%25%
5% 11%
Republicans
26. PAGE 26
MAJORITY OF AMERI CANS FEEL THAT O NLY THOS E AT THE TOP
H AV E T H E O P P O RT U N I T Y TO G E T A H E A D
Which comes closer to your view? In today’s economy,
everyone has a fair chance to get ahead in the long run
OR In today’s economy, it’s mainly just a few people at
the top who have a chance to get ahead.!
Who do you think benefits most from the policies of the
federal government: the rich, the middle class, the poor,
or do all benefit equally?!
36%
4%
60%
Anyone can get
ahead
Don't know/ No
answer
Only those at the
top can get
ahead
61%
8%
19%
8%
4%
Rich Middle
class
Poor All equally Don't
know
Source: CBS News National Poll, February 13-17, 2015
27. PAGE 27
AMERICANS THINK L IF E F OR M I DDLE CLASS A MERICA NS HA S
GOTTEN WORSE, MOST CONCERNED THEY CAN’T GET AHEAD
Over the past 10 years, do you think life for middle
class Americans has gotten better or worse?!
Better
23%
Same
4%
Don't
know
2%
Worse
71%
Source: CBS News National Poll, February 13-17, 2015
Which concerns you more… ?!
28%
68%
The income gap between
the wealthiest Americans
and the rest of the country
Middle and working class
Americans not being able
to get ahead financially
Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, April 26-30, 2015
28. PAGE 28
AND MOST FEEL TH AT THE M O NEY AND W EALTH I N THIS
C O U N T RY S H O U L D B E M O R E E V E N LY D I S T R I B U T E D
Do you feel that the distribution of money and wealth in this country today is fair, or do you feel that the money
and wealth in this country should be more evenly distributed among a larger percentage of the people?!
Source: Gallup Poll, April 9-12, 2015
31%
28%
33% 31%
38%
31% 29%
27%
37%
35% 35% 33% 31%
60%
66%
62% 63%
56%
63%
66%68%
58%
59%
57% 59%
63%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan-84 Jan-87 Jan-90 Jan-93 Jan-96 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14
Distribution is
fair
Should be
more evenly
distributed
29. PAGE 29
AMERICANS SPLIT O N WHETHER THE G O VERNM ENT SHOUL D
STEP IN TO SHRINK THE G AP O R STEP ASI DE AND L ET THE
MARKET OPERATE FREELY; STRO NG PARTI SAN DI F FE RENCE S
In thinking about the gap between the rich and everyone else, do you think it would be…!
Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll, April 6-8, 2015
46%
7%
47%
Total
70%
8%
22%
Democrats
43%
5%
52%
Independents
19%
6%
75%
Republicans
Be#er
for
the
government
to
stand
aside
and
let
the
market
operate
freely
even
if
the
gap
gets
wider
Be#er
for
the
government
to
implement
policies
designed
to
shrink
that
gap
Not
sure
30. Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 12-15, 2015, PAGE 30
AMERICANS FEEL THAT DEM O CRATS AND THE O BA MA
ADMINISTRATION BET TER ADDRESS THE I NC OM E G AP THA N
R E P U B L I C A N S
Who do you think has better ideas about how to
address the income gap…?!
In general, do you think…?!
44%
33%
Democrats Republicans
63%
9%
3%
20%
23%
18%
25%
26%
Favor the rich
Favor the middle class
Favor the poor
Treat all equally
Republicans in
Congress
Obama
Administration
Source: CBS News Poll, January 2014Note: “Both,” “Neither,” “Not a problem” results are not shown.
31. Source: FOX News Poll, April 19-21, 2015 PAGE 31
AMERICANS THINK T HE M INI M UM WAG E SHO UL D B E RA ISE D, BUT
ALSO FIND IT LIKELY BUSI NESSES W I LL CUT JO BS IF IT IS
Which of the following comes closest to your view
on how the federal government should handle the
minimum wage?!
How likely do you think it is that raising the
minimum wage will cause businesses to cut jobs or
hire fewer workers?!
54%
23%
20%
The government should
raise the minimum wage
because it would help lots
of people pay their bills
The government should
NOT raise the minimum
wage because it would
cause businesses to cut
jobs
There shouldn't be a
minimum wage because
government shouldn't tell
businesses what to pay
their employees
13% 18% 32% 35%
Not at all Not very Somewhat Very
67% Likely
33. EXPLORING THE DIG ITAL C O NVERSATI O N AROUND T HE M INIMUM
WA G E I N T H E U S!
In order to get a better understanding of some of the prominent online conversations around the
economy, GPG conducted an analysis of the online conversation from February 1 to April 30, 2015,
that examined mentions of the minimum wage in the US.!
• GPG used online media analysis tools to capture media results from the full spectrum of digital and
social media sources including:!
• Online News!
• Forums!
• Blogs!
• Social Media (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Google+, Tumblr, etc.)!
• GPG then conducted both quantitative and qualitative analysis of the data to derive the following
insights.!
Based on 68,402 results, from 2/1/15 – 4/30/15. !
PAGE 33
35. PAGE 35
MINIMUM WAGE CO NVERSATI O NS W ERE PRI MARILY ON T WIT TE R
– F O L L O W E D B Y T R A D I T I O N A L N E W S A N D FA C E B O O K
38%
22% 20%
12%
7%
Twitter News Facebook Blog Forums
EXAMPLE NEWS ARTICLES DRIVING CONVERSATION
OVER THIS TIME PERIOD:
Obama And Democrats Raise Their Minimum Wage
Proposal To $12 (Huffington Post, April 30, 2015)
Wal-Mart Will Give Half-Million Employees Pay Raises
(Yahoo! Finance, February 19, 2015)
CEO Taking $70K Salary Says It's a "Sacrifice” (CBS
News, April 24, 2015)
$15 Minimum Wage Protests Could Spell Major Problems
For Retailers (TheStreet, April 15, 2015)
Mayor Bill De Blasio To Push For Major Minimum Wage
Hike in New York City (Huffington Post, February 3, 2015)
GPG Original Digital Research
Based on 68,402 results, from 2/1/15 – 4/30/15. !
36. THEMES WITHIN THE MINIMUM WAGE CONVERSATION
GPG also used these online media analysis tools to capture media results across four sub-topics
within the larger minimum wage conversation: !
Based on 68,402 results, from 2/1/15 – 4/30/15. !
Large retailers agree to
increase wages!
TTIP / TPP and its effect
on wages!
Racial and economic
justice issues!
Minimum wage debates
in the 2016 elections !
This theme most commonly
appeared in mid-February
when Wal-Mart announced
that it would raise it’s wages
to $10 per hour. Nearly half
of these conversations
happened on Facebook,
and did not appear as
strongly on Twitter or in
news and blogs.!
Coverage of the debate over
the Transatlantic Trade and
Investment Partnership
(TTIP) and the Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP) commonly
mentioned its effect on
wages in the US. Elizabeth
Warren’s opposition
garnered a considerable
amount of coverage in news
and blogs.!
Increasing the minimum
wage has been featured
prominently in the
Democratic presidential
contenders’ platforms, and
was mentioned in many news
articles and Facebook posts
as these candidates
announced their campaigns
over this period.!
Minimum wage
conversations during this
period often overlapped with
discussions of racial and
economic justice, mostly
covered by online news and
blogs. Organizations
advocating for increasing
minimum wage commonly
connected the low wages to
economic injustices felt by
Black communities.!
PAGE 36
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GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all
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Our in-house research team is a data- and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge
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On top of a full complement of quantitative and qualitative public opinion research services, we
also routinely put together a variety of presentations from the most recent national surveys.!
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