2. TABLE OF CONTENTS
Slide
1. A Look Back at 2011……………………………………………………….…...2
2. Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the
Future…………………………………………………………………………….….10
3. Perceptions of Obama & Congress …………………………….………17
4. Perceptions of Policy Issues Moving Forward…………………....26
5. 2012: Election Preview……………………………………………………….32
1
4. PUBLIC’S TOP STORIES OF 2011: ECONOMY NEVER
FAR FROM THE TOP
The economy was the #1 or #2 most closely % Followed
followed story for 33 weeks of 2011. Story
Very Closely
% Followed Southern storms (Apr 28 – May 1) 45%
Story
Very Closely
Hurricane Irene (Aug 25-28)* 45%
Japan disaster (Mar 17-20)* 55%
9/11 anniversary (Sept 8-11) 42%
Gas and oil prices (Apr 14-17)* 53%
Bin Laden killed (May 5-8)* 50% 30 U.S. troops killed (Aug 11-14) 39%
Economy (Feb 24-27)* 49% Egypt protests (Feb 10-13)* 39%
Arizona Shootings (Jan 13-16)* 49% Violence in Libya (Feb 24-27)* 38%
Gov’t shutdown fight (Apr 7-10) 47% July heat wave (July 21-24) 38%
Debt limit deal (Aug 4-7) 46% Libya air strikes (Mar 31 – Apr 3)* 37%
Midwest tornadoes (May 26-29) 45%
As I read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past week, please tell me if you happened to follow each news
story very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely. First, The Economy….
Note: Dates show field period of the survey in which interest
was measured. * Interest in these stories was tracked over
multiple weeks; highest weekly interest is shown here. 3
Source: Pew Research Center News Interest Index
5. VIEWS OF ECONOMIC NEWS BECOME LESS
NEGATIVE AS YEAR ENDS
Are you hearing mostly good news about the economy these days, mostly bad news about the economy or a
mix of both good and bad news?
90%
80% Mix of good and bad news
80%
68% 68%
70% 64% 65%
60% 67% 60%
56% 56% 61% 56%
60% 54% 55% 53%
58%
50%
50% 41% Mostly bad news 46% 49% 48% 48%
42% 46%
39% 38%
40% 35%
39% 36%
27% 30% 35%
24%
30% 19%
33% 30% 30%
31%
20%
Mostly good news 7% 7% 5% 6% 9%
6%
10% 1%
4% 3% 5% 4% 3% 4% 2% 3% 1% 2% 1% 3%
0% Jun-10
Jun-09
Aug-09
Apr-11
Jun-11
Feb-09
Apr-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Aug-10
Feb-11
Aug-11
Dec-08
Dec-09
Dec-10
Dec-11
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
A Mix of Good and Bad Mostly Bad News Mostly Good News
4
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, January 5-8, 2012
6. 2011: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN LINE WITH
THE STOCK MARKET
US Consumer Confidence
72 66
64.8 63.8 61.7 59.2
53.3 57.6 55.2
45.2 46.4 40.9
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11
Dow Jones
5
Sources: www.conference-board.org./ www.tradingeconomics.com
7. THE YEAR IN REVIEW: ECONOMIC INDICATORS
THEN NOW
INDICATOR
January 2011 December 2011
Unemployment Rate 9.1% 8.5%
Inflation Rate 1.63% 2.96%
Stock Market 11,577.33 12,217.56
Consumer Confidence Index 53.3 55.2
U.S. Interest Rates .25% .25%
U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate 1 79.21 80.21
1The US Dollar Index is a leading benchmark for the international value of the US dollar measuring the
performance of the greenback against a basket of currencies which includes: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK.
6
Sources: U.S. Dept of Energy, U.S. Dept of Labor, and API/ www.tradingeconomics.com/ * Yahoo Finance News
8. THE YEAR IN REVIEW – PERCEPTIONS OF THE
ECONOMY
100%
Beginning of 2011 End of 2011
80%
60%
64% 64%
42% 44%
40%
20% 24%
19%
0%
Country on Wrong Track Economy is Getting Worse* Economy is Bad*
Compared with other years, do you think that 2011 was one of the best years for the United States, above
average, about average, below average, or one of the worst years for the United States?
One of the best Above average About average Below average One of the worst
1% 3% 20% 49% 27%
7
Source: NBC/WSJ survey/ * American Research Group survey
9. THE YEAR IN REVIEW- PERCEPTIONS OF OBAMA
Overall Job Approval Rating Job Approval on the Economy
Obama Inherited Economic Conditions
100%
Beginning of 2011 End of 2011
80%
65%
60% 53% 60%
46%
40% 45%
39%
20%
0%
8
Source: NBC/WSJ survey
10. SATISFACTION WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE
COUNTRY UP SLIGHTLY AT START OF 2012, TO 18%
Gallup has never
found satisfaction
lower in January of
a presidential
election year than
it is now.
9
Source: Gallup Poll, January 5-8, 2012
12. DESPITE CONCERNS, OPTIMISM IS ON THE RISE
WRONG TRACK 64.7%
New Year Optimism?
The trend shows a
sharp increase in
optimism between
December 2011 and
January 2012.
RIGHT DIRECTION 26.9%
11
Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 17, 2012
13. SOME SENSE THINGS GETTING BETTER; CLOSE TO
WHERE THINGS WERE A YEAR AGO
Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
60%
47% 49% 50% 49% Staying
50% 46% 44% 44% 45% the Same
39%
40% 43% 36%
30% 31% 32% 30%
38% 28% Getting
30% 26%
better
20% 26% 24% 24% Getting
21% 23% 23%
worse
18%
10% 14%
12%
0%
Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12
12
Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, January 12-17,2012
14. NATIONAL DEBT SEEN AS TOP ECONOMIC THREAT
Now, thinking about some possible economic concerns for the country. First, do you think
that [insert item] poses a major threat, a minor threat, or no threat to the economic well
being of the U.S.?
Major Threat to U.S. Economic Well-Being
Size of the national debt 76%
Economic competition from China 59%
Power of financial institutions & banks 56%
Economic problems in Europe 46%
Government regulation of business 44%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
13
Source: Pew Research Poll, December 7-11, 2011
15. JOB SITUATION REMAINS GLOOMY
Thinking now about job opportunities where you live, would you say there are
plenty of jobs available in your community or are jobs difficult to find?
90%
80% 78%
70% Jobs are difficult to find
60%
50%
40%
30%
20% Plenty of jobs are available
16%
10%
0%
14
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, January 11-16, 2012
16. VERY FEW AMERICANS SATISFIED WITH STATE OF
NATION IN SEVERAL ISSUE AREAS
I’m going to read some aspects of life in America today. For each one, please say whether you
are -- very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
% Satisfied Jan 2008 Jan 2012 Change
Overall quality of life 82% 76% -6
Nation’s security from terrorism 58% 72% +14
Quality of the environment 47% 51% +4
Role the U.S. plays in world affairs 40% 42% +2
Quality of public education 42% 37% -5
Our system of government and how it works 53% 35% -18
Nation’s energy policies 31% 34% +3
Amount Americans pay in federal taxes 34% 33% -1
Availability of affordable healthcare 25% 31% +6
Size and influence of major corporations 35% 30% -5
The moral and ethical climate 39% 28% -11
The size and power of the federal government 41% 29% -12
The state of the nation’s economy 36% 13% -23
15
Only 13 of 24 issues shown
Source: Gallup Poll, January 5-8, 2012
17. MOST AMERICANS BELIEVE NOW IS A BAD TIME TO INVEST IN
STOCK MARKET, BUT GOOD FOR REAL ESTATE
61% 62% 67% 64%
52% 49% 55% 53% 52% 61%
49% 51%
STOCK 47% 48%
MARKET
47% 48% 45% 46%46% 43% 42%
41% 40% 33%
36% 33% 30% 31%
Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11
Good time Bad time
65% 66% 65% 69%
60% 59% 61%61% 63% 62%
REAL 54% 57% 58% 60%
ESTATE 38% 39% 36% 37% 36%36%44% 40%39%
32%32% 34% 39%
29%
Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11
Would you say now is a good time or bad time to invest in the stock market? Note: “DK/REF”
And would you say that now is a good or bad time to invest in real estate? results not shown
16
Source: AP-GfK Poll, December 8-12, 2011
19. OBAMA’S OVERALL APPROVAL RATING SEES
SLIGHT RISE; STRONGEST ON TERRORISM AND
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Do you approve or disapprove of the way
Barack Obama is handling [ITEM]?
OVERALL JOB APPROVAL NET NET
Issue
APPROVE DISAPPROVE
DISAPPROVE 49.0% The threat of
56% 38%
terrorism
International
49% 44%
affairs
APPROVE 45.8%
Creating jobs 45% 51%
The economy 41% 57%
The federal
35% 58%
budget deficit
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, Jan 12-15, 2012
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 22, 2012
18
20. OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL FALLS BELOW PAST
PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in
90%
January of Re-Election Year
80% 77%
70%
60% 57% 55% 54%
49% 47%
50% 46% 45%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Eisenhower Carter G.W. Bush Reagan Nixon Clinton G. Bush Obama
(1956) (1980) (2004) (1984) (1972) (1996) (1992) (2011)
Weekly Approval
Rating Average 19
Jan 16 - 22
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
21. JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT
PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election
Presidential Job Approval January March June October
2012: Barack Obama 44% ? ? ?
2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50%
1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58%
1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33%
1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58%
1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32%
1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32%
1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59%
1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74%
President’s in red lost re-election
20
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
22. OBAMA NOT BLAMED FOR CURRENT ECONOMY,
BUT HASN’T MADE PROGRESS IN FIXING IT
Who do you think is more responsible for Since he took office, has Barack Obama
the country’s current economic problems – made real progress in fixing the economy or
Barack Obama or George W. Bush? hasn’t he made real progress in fixing the
economy?
Obama Bush
Both (vol) Neither (vol) Has made real
progress 35%
No opinion
54% Hasn't made real
progress 60%
29%
6% 9%
2% Don't know 5%
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 12-15, 2012 Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, Jan 12-17, 2012
21
23. MORE THAN HALF SAY OBAMA HAS NOT
ACCOMPLISHED MUCH
Obama has been president for about three years. Would you say he has accomplished a great deal
during that time, a good amount, not very much, or little or nothing?
50%
NET
40% NET
52%
30% 47% 35%
25% 27%
20%
10% 12%
0%
Great deal Good amount Not much Little or nothing
22
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 12-15, 2012
24. VERY FEW SAY THEY HAVE BECOME BETTER OFF
DURING OBAMA’S TENURE
54% A Look Back
ABC/WP
G.W. Bush (10/04)
Better off 30%
30% Worse off 30%
About the same 40%
15% ABC/WP
Clinton (6/96)
Better off 29%
Worse off 22%
About the same 49%
Better off Not as well About the ABC/WP
G.H.W. Bush
off same (2/92)
Better off 19%
Would you say you, yourself are better off financially than you
were in when Obama became president, not as well off, or in Worse off 31%
about the same shape as then financially? About the same 49%
23
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 12-15, 2012
25. CONGRESS ENDS 2011 WITH RECORD-LOW 11%
APPROVAL
11% of Americans approve of the job
Congress is doing, the lowest single
rating in Gallup's history of asking this
question since 1974
Annual average for
2011, 17%, also lowest in
Gallup history
24
Source: Gallup Poll, December 15-18, 2011
26. NEITHER SIDE OF THE AISLE RECEIVES POSITIVE
MARKS ON JOB PERFORMANCE
Democrats in Congress Republicans in Congress
Disapprove Disapprove
Approve 62% 69%
31% Approve
26%
Not sure Not sure
7% 5%
In general, do approve or disapprove of the In general, do approve or disapprove of the
job Democrats in Congress are doing? job Republicans in Congress are doing?
25
Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey, December 7-11, 2011
28. ECONOMY DOMINATES PUBLIC’S AGENDA
I'd like to ask you about priorities for
President Obama and Congress this year.
As I read from a list, tell me if you think
each should be a top priority, important
but lower priority, not too important or
should it not be done.
27
Source: Pew Research Center For The People & The Press Survey, January 11-16, 2012
29. FAR MORE PERCEIVE IRAN AS “GREATEST DANGER”
THAN IN 2011; MAJORITY PREFER WE TAKE A FIRM
STAND WITH IRAN BUT PARTISAN DIVISIONS EXIST
What country in the world, if In your opinion, which is more
any, represents the greatest danger important: to take a firm stand against
to the United States? Iranian actions or to avoid a military
conflict with Iran?
28
Source: Pew Research Center For The People & The Press Survey, January 11-16, 2012
30. MAJORITY FAVORS REMOVING TROOPS FROM
AFGHANISTAN
Do you think the U.S. should keep military troops in Afghanistan until the situation has
stabilized, or do you think the U.S. should remove troops as soon as possible?
70%
61% Remove troops as
60% 57% 56% 56%
53% soon as possible
50%
40%
30% 38% 40% 39% 38%
33% Keep troops in until the
20% situation has stabilized
10%
0%
29
Source: Pew Research Center For The People & The Press Survey, January 11-16, 2012
31. U.S. VIEWED AS LEADING NATION TWENTY YEARS
FROM NOW; CHINA IS A CLOSE SECOND
Leading Nation in 20 Years
The United States 39%
China 35%
No country will be the leader 14%
Japan 4%
India 2%
Russia 1%
The European Union 1%
Not sure 2%
Today the United States is generally considered to be the world’s leading nation. Twenty years
from now, which country do you think will be the leader?
30
Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey, December 7-11, 2011
32. AMERICANS STILL DIVIDED ON HEALTH CARE
REFORM LAW
Question Wording Beginning of 2011 End of 2011
From what you have heard • Good idea: 39% • Good idea: 34%
about Barack Obama’s health • Bad idea: 39% • Bad idea: 41%
care plan that was passed by • Do not have an opinion: 21% • Do not have an opinion: 24%
Congress and signed into law • Not sure: 1% • Not sure: 1%
by the President last year, do
you think his plan is a good
idea or a bad idea?
Would you favor or oppose • Favor: 45% • Favor: 46%
repealing and eliminating this • Oppose: 46% • Oppose: 40%
new health care law? • No opinion/not sure: 9% • No opinion/not sure: 14%
31
Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey, December 7-11, 2011
34. 2012 VOTER PREFERENCES: OBAMA EVEN WITH
GENERIC “REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE”
Presidential Trial Heat in January of
an Election Year
January 2004 %
John Kerry 40
George W. Bush 57
January 2000 %
Al Gore 41
George W. Bush 52
January 1996 %
Bill Clinton 47
Bob Dole 46
January 1984 %
Ronald Reagan 45
Walter Mondale 45
Source: Historical Gallup Polls
33
Source: Pew Research Poll, January 4-8, 2012
35. GINGRICH HAS CLIMBED BACK TO TIE ROMNEY IN
NATIONAL GOP RACE
Next, I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primaries for president in
the 2012 election. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be
most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in 2012, or if you would support
someone else.
40
35
30 29% Romney
25 28%
Gingrich
20
Paul
15
13% Santorum
10 11%
5
0
34
Source: Gallup Poll, January 18-22, 2012
36. GPG Research
GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and
quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message
development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor
critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex economic and political topics
with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective
techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our
clients’ messaging and strategy.
For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com)
35
