2. TABLE OF CONTENTS
Slide
1. Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future 3
2. Perceptions of Obama’s Handling of the Economy 10
3. Perceptions of Role of Government & Regulation 18
4. 2012 Election: Obama vs. Romney on the Economy 21
1
3. SUMMARY
1. Slight increase in economic optimism over last few months.
a) However, overall views of economy still weak.
2. Obama gets negative (though improving) ratings on his handling
of the economy.
3. Generally, people feel the economy hasn’t improved under
Obama – and that he deserves at least some of the blame.
a) Yet, people still see Bush policies as primarily responsible for our
national economic problems.
4. Electorate evenly divided over whether Obama or Romney
would better handle the economy.
a) Obama seen as more in touch with Americans’ economic problems
while voters expect a Romney administration would favor the rich.
2
5. AS WE NEAR THE ELECTION, OPTIMISM IS ON
THE RISE
WRONG TRACK 57.7%
Election Optimism?
The trend shows a
subtle increase in
RIGHT DIRECTION 34.1% optimism since July.
4
Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of September 19, 2012
6. AMERICANS’ VIEWS OF THE ECONOMY HAVE
BECOME MORE POSITIVE
Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
60%
49% 50% 49%
50% 44% 45% 45% 43% Staying
43% 44%
38% 39% the Same
40% 43% 34%
30% 28% 30% 33% 30% 30% 32% Getting
30% 36% better
32%
28% 28% Getting
20% 24% 23% 22% 24% 24% 25% worse
18%
10% 12% 14%
0%
5
Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, September 8-12, 2012
7. MAJORITY BELIEVE HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL
SITUATION WILL STAY THE SAME OR GET BETTER
How do you expect the financial situation of your household to change over the next 12
months? Will it get better, get worse, or stay about the same?
60%
52% 51% 52%
50%
50% 47% Staying
44% the Same
40%
Getting
36% 37% 36% better
30%
31% 30% 30%
20%
18% Getting
10% 15% 14%
11% 11% 12% worse
0%
Dec-11 Feb-12 May-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Sep-12
6
Source: AP-GfK Poll, September 13-17, 2012
8. YET, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
DECLINES IN AUGUST; AT LOWEST LEVEL
SINCE LAST NOVEMBER
Consumer Confidence Index
80 72 71.6
68.7
70 66 64.8 65.4
62.7 61.7 61.5 60.6
56.5 59.2
60 54.5 53.2 54.3 55.2
49.3 58.5
50 46.4
40.9
47.4 48.7 48.6
40 46.4 45.2
30
20
10
0
2009 2010 2011 2012
7
Source: Consumer Confidence Index, The Conference Board
9. AMERICANS CONTINUE TO HEAR A MIX OF
GOOD AND BAD NEWS ABOUT THE ECONOMY
Are you hearing mostly good news about the economy these days, mostly bad news about the economy or a
mix of both good and bad news?
90%
80% Mix of good and bad news
80%
68% 65% 68% 67%
70% 64% 62%60%
58% 60%
60% 53% 58%
50% 41% Mostly bad news
41%
40% 30% 32%
39% 35%
30%
31% 29% 30%
20% 19% 11%
24% 24%
Mostly good news 11%
10% 1% 1% 3%
6%
0%
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-12
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11
Aug-09
Aug-10
Aug-11
Aug-12
Dec-08
Feb-09
Jun-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Jun-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Jun-12
A Mix of Good and Bad Mostly Bad News Mostly Good News
8
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 7-9, 2012
10. VERY LARGE PARTISAN GAP IN VIEWS OF
ECONOMIC NEWS
% hearing mostly
bad news Rep Dem Ind
about…
The economy 60% 15% 36%
The job situation 75% 34% 54%
Consumer prices 74% 40% 64%
Financial markets 52% 23% 42%
Real estate
57% 30% 44%
values
Gas prices 89% 65% 78%
9
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 7-9, 2012
12. GAP ON PRESIDENT OBAMA’S HANDLING OF
THE ECONOMY NARROWS
Handling of the economy
Disapprove
50.6%
Approve
44.0%
11
Source: Pollster.com composite measure as of September 19, 2012
13. MAJORITY FEEL OBAMA’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE
ECONOMY. HOWEVER, 41% DON’T THINK HIS
POLICIES WILL EVER HELP THE ECONOMY
Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies: 1. They are improving the
economy now, and will probably continue to do so, OR 2. They have not improved the economy yet,
but will if given more time, OR 3. They are not improving the economy and probably never will.
Improving economy 26% 56%
Not improved but will in time 30%
Not improving and never will 41%
Among Likely Voters
Note: “Made economy worse (vol.)” 12
and “DK/NA” results not shown
Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, September 8-12, 2012
14. JUST AS MANY VOTERS GIVE OBAMA A GOOD
GRADE ON THE ECONOMY AS A POOR GRADE
What grade would you give President Obama on fixing the economy after being in
office for three and a half years?
38% A/B 36% D/F
30%
26%
25% 24%
20%
15% 14%
12% 12% 11%
10%
5%
0%
A B C D F Inc.
13
Note: “Don’t know” results not shown
Source: Fox News Poll, September 9-11, 2012
15. PARTISANSHIP DRIVES VIEWS ON PRESIDENTIAL
IMPACT ON ECONOMY
Is the condition of the national economy something a president can do a lot about, or is it beyond
a president’s control?
Beyond President’s
Control Can Do A Lot
NOTE: In July ’11,
Total 40% 51% 41% of Americans
felt the economy
was something
the president can
Republican 24% 71% do a lot about.
53% believed the
economy was
beyond the
Democrat 55% 35%
president’s
control.
Independent 39% 53%
Note: “Don’t know”
results not shown 14
Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, July 11-16, 2012
16. MAJORITY INDICATES ECONOMY HAS NOT IMPROVED
UNDER OBAMA’S TENURE; OF THOSE THAT FEEL THIS
WAY, MAJORITY FEELS HE DESERVES SOME BLAME
Now thinking about the country’s economy (IF ECONOMY GOTTEN WORSE OR SAME)
as a whole, would you say the economy has How much, if at all, do you blame Obama for
gotten better since Obama became the fact that the economy has not gotten
president, gotten worse, or remained about better since he took office – do you think he
the same? deserves a lot of the blame for that, some, a
little or none at all?
Among Registered Voters
43% A lot of blame 37%
32% 71%
24% Some blame 34%
A little blame 15%
Better Worse Same
No blame at all 14%
15
Note: “No opinion” results not shown
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 7-9, 2012
17. MAJORITY INDICATES PERSONAL FINANCIAL SITUATION
HAS NOT IMPROVED UNDER OBAMA’S TENURE; ABOUT
HALF FEEL HE DESERVES AT LEAST SOME BLAME
Would you say you, yourself are better off (IF NOT AS WELL OFF OR SAME SINCE
financially than you were when Obama OBAMA) How much, if at all, do you blame
became president, not as well off, or about Obama for the fact that you haven’t gotten
the same shape as then financially? better off financially since he took office – do
you think he deserves a lot of the blame for
that, some, a little or none at all?
Among Registered Voters 47%
A lot of blame 22%
32%
48%
20% Some blame 26%
A little blame 18%
Better off Not as well off About the
same No blame at all 31%
16
Note: “No opinion” results not shown
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 7-9, 2012
18. YET OBAMA STILL NOT BLAMED AS MUCH AS
HIS PREDECESSOR FOR CURRENT ECONOMIC
CONDITIONS
Do you think the policies of Barack Obama and the Democrats or George W. Bush and
the Republicans are more responsible for the country’s current economic problems?
Among
Likely Voters
Obama and the Bush and the
Democrats Republicans
38% 54%
Note: “Both equally (vol),” “Neither (vol),” and 17
“No opinion” results not shown
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 7-9, 2012
20. MAJOR PARTISAN DIVIDE ON APPROPRIATE
ROLE OF GOVERNMENT
Some people think the government is trying to do too many things that should be left to
individuals and businesses. Others think that government should do more to solve our
country’s problems. Which comes to closer to your own view?
Doing too Government Mixed /
much should do more Depends
ALL 54% 39% 5%
Republicans 82% 15% 1%
Independents 62% 29% 7%
Democrats 24% 67% 7%
19
Source: Gallup Poll, September 6-9, 2012
21. IN A SHIFT FROM ’08 – ’09, VOTERS NOW SEE
TOO MUCH GOVERNMENT REGULATION…
Do you think the federal government regulates business too much these
days, does it regulate business to little, or does it impose the right amount
of regulation on business?
60%
49%
50% 45%
41% 43% Too much
40%
40% 35%
26% 28% 28% 27% Too little
30%
22% 22%
20% 25% Right amount
22%
18% 17% 19%
10% 16%
0%
Jan-86 Feb-02 Sep-08 Feb-09 Feb-11 Jul-12
Note: “Depends (vol.)” and “DK/NA”
20
results not shown
Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, July 11-16, 2012
23. OBAMA PULLS EVEN WITH ROMNEY ON BETTER
ABLE TO HANDLE THE ECONOMY
Before After After
conventions Republican Democratic
80% convention convention
60%
50% 51% 50%
40% 49%
46% 45%
20%
Among Likely Voters Among Likely Voters Among Likely Voters
0%
Obama Romney
Now, I’m going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Barack Obama
or Mitt Romney would better handle that issue if they were elected President? The economy
22
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 7-9, 2012
24. VOTERS FEEL OBAMA BETTER UNDERSTANDS THE
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS OF AMERICANS THAN ROMNEY
Regardless of who you support, who do you think better understands the economic problems
people in this country are having – Obama or Romney?
60%
Obama
52% 51%
49% 50%
50% 48% 47%
Romney
40%
40% 40% 40% 40%
37% 38%
30%
Among Registered Voters
20%
Feb-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12
23
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 7-9, 2012
25. OBAMA & ROMNEY CLOSE ON MOST OTHER
ECONOMIC ISSUES
Regardless of who you support, which one of the presidential candidates [Mitt Romney or
Barack Obama] do you think would do the best job of [INSERT]?
60%
Obama Romney Among Registered Voters
50% 48% 46% 46%
45% 43%
42%
40%
30%
Obama Obama Romney
20% +6 +1 +3
10%
0%
Dealing with taxes Improving the job situation Reducing the federal
budget deficit
Note: “Both,” “Neither,” and “Don’t 24
know” results are not shown.
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012
26. VOTERS DON’T FEEL EITHER CANDIDATE HAS A
CLEAR PLAN FOR IMPROVING THE ECONOMY
Do you think Barack Obama has a clear Do you think Mitt Romney has a clear
plan for improving the economy, or not? plan for improving the economy, or not?
51% 49%
No No
45%
Yes 42%
Yes
9%
4% Don’t know
Don’t know
Among Likely Voters
25
Source: Fox News Poll, September 9-11, 2012
27. MAJORITY OF VOTERS THINK ROMNEY
ADMINISTRATION WOULD FAVOR THE RICH
[If Barack Obama is re-elected President / If Mitt Romney is elected President], do you think
the policies of his administration will favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or
will they treat all groups the same?
Among Likely Voters
60% Obama Romney
53%
50%
40%
33%
30%
30% 26%
22%
20%
12%
10% 8%
1%
0%
Favor rich Favor middle class Favor poor Treat equally
Note: “DK/NA” results are not shown. 26
Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, September 8-12, 2012
28. THE REAL 47% -- VIEW POLLS UNFAVORABLY
Favorable – unfavorable views
21%
Political pundits
59%
Favorable
Unfavorable
46%
Public opinion polls
47%
Note: “No opinion” results are not shown.
27
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 12-16, 2012
29. GPG Research
GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and
quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message
development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor
critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex economic and political topics
with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective
techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our
clients’ messaging and strategy.
For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com)
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