GPG analysis of publicly-released polls with an eye toward the upcoming election.

1. Election 2016 – A Brief Overview
and Analysis
November 1, 2016

2. K E Y TA K E AWAYS
Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll Decoder, Real Clear Politics
Ø An average of recent polling still has Clinton on top nationally, although the race has tightened in the
last week.
Ø As close as the election may have gotten, vote preference results a week out are not necessarily
predictive of the final result. Mitt Romney was +1 vs. Barack Obama in comparable tracking poll results
in 2012, for example, and John Kerry was +1 vs. George W. Bush a week out in 2004.
Ø Trump’s margin with independent voters is +7.3, up six points since Friday. Romney won independents
by 5.
Ø Clinton's lead with female voters is +11.4 across polls. Obama won women by 11 in 2012. Men are
+3.3 for Trump. Romney won men by 7.
Ø Clinton is overwhelmingly winning non-white voters (+48). But Obama won them even more
resoundingly: +62.6.
PAGE 2

3. W H AT T O L O O K F O R O V E R T H E F I N A L W E E K
Source: NYT The Upshot
PAGE 3
Ø Is there a Trump comeback?
§ As the race tightens, it will be worth looking at whether Trump has made a breakthrough in
Clinton’s firewall – states like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
Ø Can Clinton build a landslide?
§ If the next tier of leaning-Republican states – like Missouri, Indiana, Texas, South Carolina or
Alaska – start looking like true tossups, that would be a sign of a potential landslide.
Ø Can Republicans hold the Senate?
§ Republicans will probably need to win races in three of these six states to retain control of the
chamber: Pennsylvania, Indiana, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Missouri.
Ø Can the Democrats put the House in play?
§ Although it’s very hard to identify a realistic path for the Democrats to get the seats they need, if
Hillary Clinton pulls away over the last week, control of the House will loom as a possibility.

4. B A T T L E F O R T H E P R E S I D E N C Y

5. C L I N TON E N J OYS L E A D O V E R T R U MP N AT IO NALLY; V E R Y F E W
M AY C H A N GE V O T E
PAGE 5
LikeCandidate
DislikeOpponent
LikeCandidate
Clinton Trump Spread
HuffPost
Pollster
48.2% 42.0%
Clinton
+6.2
Real Clear
Politics
47.5% 45.3%
Clinton
+2.2
Two-way RaceFour-way Race
Clinton Trump Spread
HuffPost
Pollster
45.9% 40.3%
Clinton
+5.6
FiveThirtyEight 45.3% 41.4%
Clinton
+3.9
Real Clear
Politics
45.3% 43.1%
Clinton
+2.2
Clinton
voters
Trump
voters
Mind made up 94% 93%
Might change
mind 5% 6%Source: CBS News Poll 10/12-10/16
Is your mind made up or do you think you
might change your mind before the election?

6. H O W T H E R A C E H A S S H I F TED N AT ION ALLY
Source: Real Clear Politics Averages of 4-way race
PAGE 6
LikeCandidate
DislikeOpponent
DislikeOpponent
LikeCandidate
43.1
44.3 44.1 44.3
46.3
44.9
45.3
41.5
40.6 40.9 40.6
39.0
39.9
43.1
Before 1st
Debate
Before VP
Debate
Tape Release Before 2nd
Debate
Before 3rd
Debate
October 24th November1st
CLINTON
TRUMP

7. A L O T C A N H A P P EN O V E R T H E F I N A L W E E K W H E N I T C O M E S T O
T H E P O L L S
Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll
PAGE 7
LikeCandidate
DislikeOpponent
DislikeOpponent
LikeCandidate
Election
ABC/Post Poll
One Week out
Tracking Poll Final
Estimate
Actual Vote
2016: Clinton – Trump 45 – 46 ? ?
2012: Obama – Romney 48 – 49 50 – 47 51 – 47
2008: Obama – McCain 52 – 45 53 – 44 53 – 46
2004: Kerry – Bush 49 – 48 48 – 49 48 – 51
2000: Gore – Bush 45 – 48 45 – 48 48 – 48
1996: Clinton – Dole 54 – 35 51 – 39 49 – 41
1992: Clinton – Bush 41 – 34 44 – 37 43 – 37

8. R E L ATI VELY W E A K S U P PORT F O R B O T H C L I N TON A N D T R U MP
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 20-25, 2016
PAGE 8
LikeCandidate
DislikeOpponent
DislikeOpponent
LikeCandidate
55%
63%
69%
68%
55%
2000 Gore
2004 Kerry
2008 Obama
2012 Obama
2016 Clinton
Democratic candidate
64%
70%
55%
67%
56%
2000 Bush
2004 Bush
2008 McCain
2012 Romney
2016 Trump
Republicancandidate
% of supporters whostrongly support…

9. ‘ A N T I -CL INTO N’ V O T E A M O N G T R U MP V O T E RS S TA ND S I N
C O N T RAS T T O P R I O R E L E C TIO NS
PAGE 9
63%
39%
77%
73%
57%
32%
53%
18%
24%
41%
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
64%
71%
64%
57%
45%
30%
22%
30%
39%
51%
Among Republican candidatesupporters Among Democratic candidate supporters
Would you say your choice is morea vote FOR ____ or AGAINST_____?
For DemocratFor RepublicanAgainst Democrat Against Republican
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 20-25, 2016

10. L O O K I N G A T T H E P R E S I D E N T I A L M A P

11. PAGE 11
E L E C TOR AL M A P FAV ORAB LE T O WAR D C L I N TON
Likely/Leans Clinton
(272)
Likely/Leans Trump
(164)
Toss-Up
(102)
CT 7
O
R
A
K
K
Y
N
M
M
N
C
O
G
A
N
C
N
H
3
12
7
55
6
4
3
6
11 5
9
3
3
5
2
NH 4
VT 3
3
4
38
DC 3
MD 10
DE 3
NJ 14
RI 4
MA 1129
6
7
10
6
10
6
8
6 9 16
29
9
15
13
11
20 11
10 16
18
20
8
5
ME2
(1)
ME1
(1)

12. S E L E CT S TATE P O L LI NG AV E R AGE S
O
R
K
Y
N
M
M
N
C
O
G
A
N
H
FL
VA
OH
PAIA
AZ
NV
(10/21 – 10/28)
Trump: 45.0%
Clinton: 43.5%
(9/20 – 10/26)
Trump: 41.7%
Clinton: 40.3%
(10/17 – 10/30)
Clinton: 45.2%
Trump: 39.6%
(10/23 – 10/30)
Clinton: 47.2%
Trump: 41.2%
Clinton: 47.5%
Trump: 42.3%
(10/23 – 10/30)
Trump: 45.5%
Clinton: 44.5%
(10/21 – 10/30)
(10/17 – 10/30)
Trump: 46.8%
Clinton: 44.3%
Clinton: 45.0%
Trump: 44.0%
(10/20 – 10/30) NC Clinton: 47.3%
Trump: 44.7%
(10/20 – 10/30)
Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/1/16
PAGE 12
Averages are for Four-way Race

13. PAGE 13
States Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Arizona 43.5% 45.0% 0 11
Florida 44.5% 45.5% 0 29
Iowa 40.3% 41.7% 0 6
Nevada 45.0% 44.0% 6 0
New Hampshire 45.2% 39.6% 4 0
North Carolina 47.3% 44.7% 15 0
Pennsylvania 47.2% 41.2% 20 0
Ohio 44.3% 46.8% 0 18
Virginia 47.5% 42.3% 13 0
Swing State Voters 58 64
Leaning/Likely State Voters 235 181*
Total Overall Votes 293 245
RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORALVOTES
C L I N TON L E A DS I N F I V E O F N I N E B AT TL EGRO UND S TATE S
*Indications point to Trump winning 1 Electoral vote from Maine which awards its electoral votes proportionally

14. PAGE 14
H O W S W I N G S TATE S H AV E S H I F TED
Pre-First Debate
(9/26)
Tape Release
(10/7)
Pre-Final Debate
(10/19)
Today
(11/1)
Arizona Trump +3.0 Trump +1.0 Clinton +0.2 Trump +1.5
Florida Clinton +0.5 Clinton +2.4 Clinton +3.6 Trump +1.0
Iowa Trump +5.0 Trump +4.7 Trump +3.7 Trump +1.4
Nevada Trump +2.3 Clinton +1.4 Clinton +4.2 Clinton +1.0
New Hampshire Clinton +5.4 Clinton +5.0 Clinton +3.6 Clinton +5.6
North Carolina Trump +0.8 Clinton +2.6 Clinton +2.6 Clinton +2.6
Ohio Trump +2.0 Trump +1.6 Trump +0.7 Trump +2.5
Pennsylvania Clinton +1.8 Clinton +6.0 Clinton +6.8 Clinton +6.0
Virginia Clinton +6.0 Clinton +7.0 Clinton +8.7 Clinton +5.2
Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/1/16

15. A N D T H O S E O T H E R R A C E S : S E N A T E & H O U S E

16. Source: Rothenberg &
Gonzales Political
Report, last updated
Oct 21st
K E Y 2 0 1 6 S E N ATE R A C E S: O P P ORTUN ITY F O R D E M O CRAT S T O
R E C A PT URE S E V E RAL S E AT S
Lean Dem (2) Pure Toss-Up (6) Lean Rep (1)
IL (Kirk- R) v. Duckworth NV (Open- D):Heck (R) v.Cortez Masto (D) FL (Rubio- R) v.Murphy
WI (Johnson- R) v.Feingold PA (Toomey- R) v.McGinty
IN (Open- R) – Young(R) v.Bayh (D)
NH (Ayotte- R) v.Hassan
MO (Blunt- R) v.Kander
NC (Burr- R) v. Ross
PAGE 16
There are five very closeSenate races in whichthe FiveThirtyEightpolls-plus model puts the margin separatingthe two major-party
candidateswithin 2 percentage points:Missouri,Nevada,New Hampshire,NorthCarolina,and Pennsylvania. All five ofthese raceshave
remained close throughoutOctober,with no signofeither candidate breaking away.Ifthe model perfectly projects all five ofthese races,
2016 would be only the second electionin the past35 years in which morethanthree Senate races hadfinal marginsof2 points or less.

17. S E L E CT S E N ATE P O L L IN G AV E RA GES
O
R
K
Y
N
M
M
N
C
O
G
A
N
H
AZ
FL
OH
PA
WI
NV
(10/6 – 10/27)
Feingold: 50.3%
Johnson: 43.5%
(10/20 – 10/30)
McGinty: 44.8%
Toomey: 40.8%
Rubio: 49.0%
Murphy: 43.4%
(10/20 – 10/27)
(10/10 – 10/27)
Portman: 51.3%
Strickland: 36.8%
Heck: 45.2%
Cortez Masto: 44.8%
(10/20 – 10/27)
McCain: 48.3%
Kirkpatrick: 38.0%
(10/2 – 10/28)
NC
Burr: 46.3%
Ross: 45.3%
(10/20 – 10/28)
Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/1/16
PAGE 17
MO
(10/17 – 10/30)
Ayotte: 47.2%
Hassan: 45.4%Blunt: 45.7%
Kander: 44.7%
(10/9 – 10/26)
IN
Bayh: 44.5%
Young: 40.8%
(10/3 – 10/24)

18. PAGE 18
STATE DEM REP DEM REP
Arizona Kirkpatrick:38.0% McCain (i):48.3% HOLD
Florida Murphy:43.4% Rubio (i):49.0% HOLD
Illinois Duckworth:43.3% Kirk (i):36.3% PICKUP
Indiana Bayh:44.5% Young:40.8% PICKUP
Missouri Kander:44.7% Blunt(i):45.7% HOLD
Nevada Cortez Masto:44.8% Heck:45.2% PICKUP
New Hampshire Hassan:45.4% Ayotte (i):47.2% HOLD
North Carolina Ross:45.3% Burr (i):46.3% HOLD
Pennsylvania McGinty:44.8% Toomey (i):40.8% PICKUP
Ohio Strickland:36.8% Portman (i):51.3% HOLD
Wisconsin Feingold:50.3% Johnson(i):43.5% PICKUP
Toss-Up /LeaningRaces 4 7
Solid /Likely Races 9 14
NotUp For Election 36 30
Total Senate Make-up 49 51
RCP POLL AVERAGE
S E N ATE C O N T ROL C O U LD G O E I T H E R WAY A S W E H E A D I N T O
F I N A L W E E K

19. PAGE 19
R E P U BL ICA N S E N ATE C A N DI DATES P O L L B E T TE R T H A N
T R U M P I N K E Y S TAT ES
STATE SENATE CANDIDATE TRUMP DIFFERENCE
Arizona McCain (i): 48.3% Trump: 45.0% +3.3
Florida Rubio (i): 49.0% Trump: 45.5% +3.5
Illinois Kirk (i): 36.3% Trump: 33.0% +3.3
Nevada Heck: 45.2% Trump: 44.0% +1.2
New Hampshire Ayotte (i): 47.2% Trump: 39.6% +7.6
North Carolina Burr (i): 46.3% Trump: 44.7% +1.6
Pennsylvania Toomey (i): 40.8% Trump: 41.2% -0.4
Ohio Portman (i): 51.3% Trump: 46.8% +4.5
Wisconsin Johnson (i): 43.5% Trump 41.3% +2.2
Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/1/16

20. Source: NBC / WSJ Survey, October 10-13, 2016 PAGE 20
C O N G RES SIO NAL B A L L OT I S C L O S E, A LT H OUGH M O R E V O T E RS
W O U L D V O T E F O R C O N GRE SSI ONA L R E P U BLI CAN S A S A C H E C K
O N H I L L ARY A N D D E M O CR ATS
If the election for Congress were held today, would you
vote for the Democratic candidate in your district or the
Republican candidate in your district?
45% 47%
9%
Republican
candidate
Democratic
candidate
Other / Unsure
(vol.)
Source: Fox News Poll, October 22-25, 2016
Would you be more likely to vote for…?
40%
53%
A Democratic candidatewhowill
help Hillary Clinton and
Congressional Democrats pass
their agenda
A Republican candidate who will
be a check-and-balance to
Hillary Clinton and
Congressional Democrats
“”Depends,” Neither,” “Other,”and “Not sure” results not shown
Thinking
about
the
election
for
U.S.
Congress…

21. Source: Cook Political Report, as of October 27, 2016 PAGE 21
H O U S E R A C E R AT ING S
The Cook Political Report
counts just 39 seats out of 435
as competitive. Of the 39
competitive seats, 33 are held
by Republicans and six are
held by Democrats. That
means that if Democrats swept
every single competitive seat,
they would win the majority.
Chances of this happening
though, are highly unlikely.
Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat
Italicized name denotes Freshman member

22. P R E D I C T I O N S

23. PAGE 23
W H AT T H E P U N D ITS P R E DI CT

24. PAGE 24
W H AT T H E V O T E RS P R E D ICT F O R T H E P R E S I DENCY
(AP-GfK) Regardless of which candidate you personally want
to win, which candidate do you think is more likely to win the
presidential race in November?
Clinton Trump
74% 25%
(Suffolk / USA Today) Just your best guess -- When all the
votes are counted this November, who do you think is most
likely to be elected president: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
(CNN-ORC) Regardless of who you support and trying to be
as objective as possible, who do you think will win the
presidential election this November?
(ABC / WashPost) Regardless of whom you support, who do
you expect to win the election for president?
Clinton Trump
70% 19%
Clinton Trump
68% 27%
Clinton Trump
57% 31%

25. F O U R I N F I V E V O T E R S W I S H T H E E L E C TI ON W E R E O V E R
Are you generally enjoying this presidential election, or do you wish it was over?
Source: YouGov Poll, October 23-24, 2016
I wish the
election
were over
81%
I’m enjoying
the election
12%
PAGE 25
Not sure
7%

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