2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The October 28, 2012 parliamentary election race officially began on Monday, July 30. Currently, participating political
parties are finalizing their party lists and nominating and registering candidates for single-mandate election districts. The
results of this process, including the exact list of candidates and participating parties will be available by the second half of
August.
Opinion polling points six parties playing an active role in the elections: Party of Regions, United Opposition (“Batkivshchyna”
and “Front of Change”), Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reforms (UDAR), Communist Party of Ukraine, “Ukraine –
Forward!”, and “Freedom”. The first four will almost surely have a presence in the next Parliament, and the other two also
have good chances. All of these parties will participate in both the party list and the single-mandate elections, except
“Freedom” which will coordinate its single-mandate list with the United Opposition. Additionally, incumbent Parliament
Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn’s “National Party” will run exclusively in the single-mandate elections, but will not participate in
the party list election. Former President Yushchenko’s “Our Ukraine” teamed with other rightist parties “Ukrainian National
Party” and “Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists” and will participate in both parts of the election process. Opinion polling
suggests they are highly unlikely to pass the 5% threshold for party lists and their candidates in single mandate districts are
at a disadvantage due to their late start.
Single-mandate elections remain traditionally unpredictable, although we can be sure that the incumbent Party of Regions
will have an advantage in eastern and southern regions where their candidates are well finances and face little competition
from opposition candidates. As is common in Ukraine, the deciding factor in many single mandate districts will be the
candidate’s ability to finance their political campaigns, as well as other large projects in the districts, rather than party
affiliation.
Regarding Kyiv municipal elections, the two main contenders are obvious. The runoff will be between Vitaliy Klychko, leader
of the opposition UDAR party and Oleksadnr Popov, current Chairman of the Kyiv City State Administration. The Party of
Regions will attempt to delay the elections as much as possible in order to secure a victory for Popov.
PBN H+K Strategies will offer another update on the 2012 parliamentary elections at the end of August, 2012.
3. PARTY LIST RACE
United Communist Ukraine -
% Party of Regions UDAR Freedom Other Undecided
Opposition Party Forward!
May, 2012 17.9 20.5 9.0 3.8 2.6 1.3 3.8 41.0
June, 2012 19.4 19.3 12.4 4.7 1.9 3.4 4.1 34.8
Source: polls by GfK Ukraine
May 2012 Party of Regions June 2012 Party of Regions
United Opposition United Opposition
UDAR UDAR
17,9 34,8 19,4
41,0 Communist Party Communist Party
20,5 Freedom 19,3 Freedom
Ukraine - Forward! Ukraine - Forward!
9,0 4,7 12,4
Other Other
Undecided 4,1 Undecided
3,8 3,4 1,9
1,3 2,6 3,8
Party of Regions and United Opposition (“Batkivshchyna” + “Front of Change”) are virtually even in voter support; however,
they have lost much popularity since the 2007 election.
Party of Regions is not attracting many additional voters, despite the assimilation of Deputy Prime Minister Serhiy Tihipko’s
party “Strong Ukraine”. In fact, as some recent polls show, they continue to lose public trust.
Yulia Tymoshenko’s “Batkivshchyna”, on the other hand, gained considerable support after merging with “Front of Change”
headed by Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
After the recent changes in the election system (particularly the elimination of “Against All” vote) and the abovementioned
mergers, the electorate is in a flux. The number of people not planning to attend the elections has more than doubled, and
the number of undecided voters has increased dramatically as well. Thus, the election among party lists appears wide open
for now.
4. POPULARITY POLLS FROM OTHER SOURCES
Party of United Communist Ukraine -
% UDAR Freedom Other Undecided
Regions Opposition Party Forward!
Razumkov Centre
25.1 23.7 9.8 7.2 3.5 3.3 7.9 19.5
(25 June 2012)
KIIS (26 June
19.1 17.3 9.5 6.9 3.7 3.9 5.1 34.2
2012)
GfK (June 2012) 19.4 19.3 12.4 4.7 1.9 3.4 4.1 34.8
Rating Group (31
18.6 23.6 10.3 9.3 4.0 4.1 2.3 23.3
July 2012)
Graphic Comparison
35,0
30,0 As seen, the data from Razumkov Centre
Razumkov Centre
(25 June 2012) slightly inflates the results in favor of the
25,0
two leading parties, while the other studies
KIIS (26 June emphasize the open nature of the race.
20,0 2012)
15,0 GfK (June 2012) The more recent study from Rating Group
demonstrates the gain in support by the
10,0 United Opposition and the Communist
Rating Group (31
July 2012) Party.
5,0
0,0
5. IF ELECTIONS TOOK PLACE IN JULY…
United Communist Ukraine -
Party of Regions UDAR Freedom Other Total
Opposition Party Forward!
Seats 78 77 50 20 below threshold below threshold below threshold 225
Note: assume “undecided” voters don’t participate or spread equally
Seats filled under the Proportional System
20
78
50
Party of Regions
United Opposition
UDAR
Communist Party
77
There are only 4 parties currently who would easily pass the 5% threshold: Party of Regions, United Opposition
(“Batkivshchyna” + “Front of Change”), UDAR and the Communist Party of Ukraine.
The Communist Party is slightly below the cutoff line, but will no doubt pass the threshold as it is benefitting from voters
dissatisfied with the Party of Regions in Eastern and Southern Ukraine.
Oleh Tyahnybok’s “Freedom” and Natalia Korolevska’s “Ukraine-Forward!” are considerably below the threshold, but both
still have a chance to pass 5%. The latter in particular has been gaining attention and support steadily in the recent
months, more so after the famous Ukrainian football player, Andriy Shevchenko announced his membership in the party.
6. POTENTIAL VOTER GAIN
Party of Regions United Opposition UDAR Communist Party Freedom Ukraine - Forward!
Support (%) 19.4 19.3 12.4 4.7 1.9 3.4
Sympathy (%) 21.8 28.2 23.1 9.0 6.4 7.7
Relative Gain
1.12 1.46 1.86 1.91 3.37 2.26
(times)
Relative Gain (%) 12.4 46.1 86.3 91.5 236.8 126.5
Party of Regions has very little potential to gain voters on
30,0 the proportional system, and will likely emphasize securing
25,0 as many single-mandate districts as possible in order to
20,0 ensure a majority in the Parliament.
15,0
Another key task for the Party of Regions will be to
10,0 encourage their electoral base to turn out. Despite low
Potential Gain
5,0 potential to gain active voters, they might still garner
Current Support
support from over 30% of potential voters currently refusing
0,0
to participate in the elections.
Both United Opposition and UDAR have a large amount of
sympathizers, enough to secure a significant number of
additional seats.
Both “Freedom” and “Ukraine-Forward!” still have a chance to break the 5% threshold given a successful campaign.
With over 35% of the voters undecided, much will depend on the ability of the parties to swing this electorate in their favor.
UDAR will need to target younger voters (under 30 years old.), since they are the least politically active, but show the most
support for Klychko’s party advertised as modern, progressive, and European.
7. SINGLE-MANDATE ELECTIONS
Currently, the results of single-mandate elections are impossible to predict with certainty, since there is usually little to no
correlation between the voters’ party preferences and regional representative voting tendencies in Ukraine.
While some candidates (usually pro-Party of Regions incumbents) have already started campaigning in their districts, the
single-mandate race remains open as official registration of candidates in the Central Election Commission has only just
begun, and the parties continue to finalize candidate lists.
Unless the opposition begins to campaign aggressively in the nearest future, single-mandate races will favor pro-government
candidates or independents with their support, for the following reasons:
– Many of the districts were drawn in favor of pro-government candidates or with the intention of disrupting opposition
candidates’ campaigns;
– Some Party of Regions candidates are masquerading as pro-opposition independents in order to create fake
competition against intentionally weak PoR candidates and discredit the actual opposition candidates;
– Single-mandate races usually favor the better-financed, better-organized candidates, which are often pro-government
candidates.
– Some opposition candidates are willing to cross over to the Party of Regions side after winning their seats as
opposition members, particularly business leaders.
The possibility of fraud on certain election sites still exists. It will be difficult for the opposition to install enough observers in
all the 225 districts and to operate effectively after being accustomed to a proportional election system for the past 10 years.
According to some estimates, pro-government candidates have the power to gain as much as 10% more votes through fraud
during the counting process.
Judging by the released candidate lists for single-mandate districts, the Party of Regions and the PoR-sympathizing
independents currently hold considerable advantage over the rather weak candidates from opposition. The PBN Company
will release more specific analysis once the lists are finalized and the candidates officially register with the CEC.
8. KYIV MAYOR ELECTION
Potential Candidates
Oleksandr Oleksandra
Vitaliy Klychko Oleh Lyashko Vasyl' Horbal' Serhiy Kurykin Against All Undecided
Popov Kuzhel'
Popularity (%) 43.1 34.4 6.9 1.6 1.2 0.0 3.0 9.8
Source: poll by “Ukrainian Democratic Circle”, July 2012
The race is likely to come down to Popov (Party of
Potential Kyiv Mayor Regions) vs. Klychko (UDAR, opposition). Klychko
Popularity currently enjoys more popularity, but with time Popov
has better resources and is better-positioned to gain
3,0
additional support.
1,2
Vitaliy Klychko
1,6
6,9 9,8 While the opposition is pushing for the Kyiv Mayor
Oleksandr Popov
43,1 election to be held simultaneously with the parliamentary
Oleksandra Kuzhel'
elections in October, 2012, the Party of Regions is
Oleh Lyashko interested in delaying the date in order to boost their
34,4
Vasyl' Horbal' candidate’s popularity. Verkhovna Rada sets the date for
Against All municipal elections, therefore the Party of Regions has
this advantage as long as they maintain their majority.
Undecided
Vitaliy Klychko has previously announced his intent to
run for the position, and that he would give up his seat in
the Verkhovna Rada for it.
9. APPENDIX 1: MAJOR POLITICAL PARTIES
“Batkivshchyna”: Formerly known
“Party of Regions”: The party as the Yuliya Tymoshenko bloc, this
that currently holds 175 seats and is the primary opposition party in
majority in Verkhovna Rada. It is Ukraine. After merging with the
also the party of the current “Front for Change” and several
President, Viktor Yanukovych. other small opposition parties, it is
Generally favors a Russian- often referred to as the United
leaning agenda. Opposition. Generally has a pro-
European stance.
UDAR (Ukrainian Democratic
Alliance for Reform): Vitaliy
Communist Party of Ukraine:
Klychko’s party. This is the only
Currently holds 27 seats in the
significant opposition party not
parliament. It is a small but
cooperating with “Batkivshchyna” in
significant pro-government party
the upcoming elections. UDAR has
in Ukraine. Pursues a socialist
been gaining much popular support
agenda and generally sides with
in the recent months. Pursues a pro-
the Party of Regions.
European and an anti-corruption
agenda.
“Ukraine-Forward!”:
Natalia Korolevska’s party,
All-Ukrainian Union “Freedom”:
formerly known as the Social
Oleh Tyahnybok’s party. Agreed to
Democratic Party of Ukraine,
cooperate with “Batkivshchyna” in
formerly part of Bloc of Yuliya
single-mandate elections. Pursues a
Tymoshenko. Positions itself as
Ukrainian nationalist and a populist
an opposition party with a pro-
agenda.
development agenda, but might
side with the PoR after elections.
10. APPENDIX 2: KYIV MAYOR ELECTIONS
POTENTIAL CANDIDATES PROFILE
Vitaliy Klychko: Leader of the UDAR Oleksandr Popov: Chairman of the Kyiv
party, former member of the Kyiv City City State Administration, former Minister
Council. Ran for mayor’s office before, for Public Services. Member of Party of
unsuccessfully. Regions, and their preferred candidate for
Kyiv mayor.
Oleksandra Kuzhel’: Former head of Oleh Lyashko: Incumbent deputy of the
The State Committee of Ukraine for Verkhovna Rada from “Batkivshchyna”,
Regulatory Policy and Entrepreneurship, was ousted from the party in 2010,
former deputy head of the “Strong allegedly for “cooperating with the [Party
Ukraine” party. Quit the party after its of Regions] majority”.
merge with the Party of Regions.
Vasyl’ Horbal’: Incumbent deputy of the Serhiy Kurykin: Former head of the
Verkhovna Rada from the Party of Green Party, former Minister for Ecology
Regions; former president of and Natural Resources.
“Ukrgazbank”, former governor of Lviv
oblast. Ran for mayor’s office in 2008.
