LONGWave 04-04-13 - sub- The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
1. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
2. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
RISK
• CHARTS: Right Shoulder Fibonacci Relationships,
• Three Key Divergences,
SENTIMENT
• Rethinking Contrarian Sentiment,
• The “Flawed” Belief that Precedes Market Corrections,
ECONOMICS
• Key Charts Worth Revisiting,
• Increasing EU Concerns,
FUNDAMENTALS
• Q1 Earnings Pre-Announcements,
• PE’s, Earning Forecasts and YTD Returns.
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
3. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
4. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
5. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
6. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
7. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
8. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Fear Occurs Quickly
Likely Scare Ahead
Fully Invested but
Getting Nervous
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
9. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Over a Decade of
Increasing Bearishness
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
10. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
11. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
12. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
13. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
“Trouble Coming to Paradise” - February 2013
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
14. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
15. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
16. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
17. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
18. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
This is
Simply NOT
going to
happen!
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
19. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
20. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
21. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
22. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Expect a Q2 Market Scare,
We are putting in a MAJOR, Long Term Right Shoulder,
Head & Shoulders or Megaphone
-Not Important to Investors
-Only Traders and Speculators
Gold Charts may be the best clue of what is ahead,
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
23. This chart is from the April 2013 Market Analytics & Technical Analysis Report
April 4th, 2013
The MARKET TRAP is Being Set
Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
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Listen to the original podcast for this slide at www.GordonTLong.com/LONGWave
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this
slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.
Notes de l'éditeur
IT IS ONE THING FOR THE MARKETS TO START EXHIBTING AN INITIAL NEW PATTERN OF LOWER LOWS AND LOWER HIGHS THAT SUGGESTS A DOWNWARD TREND CHANNELIT IS ANOTHER FOR THE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE TO CROSS THROUGH AND BELOW THE 200 DAY MOING AVERAGE.WHEN THIS OCCURS IT IS REFERRED TO AS A “DEATH CROSS” AND IS A FAIRLY RELIABLE CONFIRMATION THAT AN INTERMEDIATE DOWNWARD TRENDD IS IN PLACE.MARKETS AND TRADERS REACT BADLY TO SUCH A TECHNICAL SIGNAL.LET’S EXAMINE THE MARKET TO SEE WHAT WE FIND.
IT IS ONE THING FOR THE MARKETS TO START EXHIBTING AN INITIAL NEW PATTERN OF LOWER LOWS AND LOWER HIGHS THAT SUGGESTS A DOWNWARD TREND CHANNELIT IS ANOTHER FOR THE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE TO CROSS THROUGH AND BELOW THE 200 DAY MOING AVERAGE.WHEN THIS OCCURS IT IS REFERRED TO AS A “DEATH CROSS” AND IS A FAIRLY RELIABLE CONFIRMATION THAT AN INTERMEDIATE DOWNWARD TRENDD IS IN PLACE.MARKETS AND TRADERS REACT BADLY TO SUCH A TECHNICAL SIGNAL.LET’S EXAMINE THE MARKET TO SEE WHAT WE FIND.
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Today, lets look at another interesting data point from AAII: Cash allocations reached a 16-month high in March. Individual investors pulled money from both equities and bonds last month.We have shown the flip side of this chart in the past — equity allocation — which is similarly moderate.Equity allocations fell 3.0 percentage points to 59.5% in March. Surprisingly, the past 15 months have not seen much variation in equity allocations stuck in a range from 58.8% (June 2012) to 62.5% (February 2013). The historical average is 60%.March AAII Asset Allocation Survey results:• Stocks Total: 59.5%, down 3.0 percentage points• Bonds Total: 17.7%, down 1.5 percentage points• Cash: 22.8%, up 4.6 percentage pointsHistorical Averages:• Stocks/Stock Funds: 60%• Bonds/Bond Funds: 16%• Cash: 24%
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A rather skewed distribution in asset returns Year to Date (through March 31), with the winners so far i) the Nikkei, in both JPY and USD terms, on endless jawboning out of the Japanese political apparatus that it may do virtually anything - although in a few hours we will see just what the BOJ actually will do, the S&P on the $85 billion in monthly liquidity injections, and finally the FTSE on expectations the arrival of yet another Goldman central planner will unleash yet another epic episode of monetization in July, just as the Japan effect is fading. The losers: pretty much everyone else. (BitCoin was not included in the sample).
IT IS ONE THING FOR THE MARKETS TO START EXHIBTING AN INITIAL NEW PATTERN OF LOWER LOWS AND LOWER HIGHS THAT SUGGESTS A DOWNWARD TREND CHANNELIT IS ANOTHER FOR THE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE TO CROSS THROUGH AND BELOW THE 200 DAY MOING AVERAGE.WHEN THIS OCCURS IT IS REFERRED TO AS A “DEATH CROSS” AND IS A FAIRLY RELIABLE CONFIRMATION THAT AN INTERMEDIATE DOWNWARD TRENDD IS IN PLACE.MARKETS AND TRADERS REACT BADLY TO SUCH A TECHNICAL SIGNAL.LET’S EXAMINE THE MARKET TO SEE WHAT WE FIND.