Analysis of declining UK consumer sales of DAB radio receivers and the imperative of DAB stakeholders to market the UK as a 'success' story overseas, written by Grant Goddard in April 2010 for Grant Goddard: Radio Blog.

1. DESPERATION TO SELL THE UK
DAB RADIO 'SUCCESS' STORY
(AND SELL DAB HARDWARE) IN
NEW OVERSEAS MARKETS
by
GRANT GODDARD
www.grantgoddard.co.uk
April 2010

2. In amongst all the jubilant public statements from media stakeholders following Assent of the
Digital Economy Act 2010 this month, one press release stood out for taking wild optimism to
new heights. It said:
“The Digital Economy Bill is linked to the government’s Digital Britain report which
defines a digital radio switchover plan lasting two years. The migration start date for
this is triggered when DAB coverage reaches the same as today’s FM and when 50%
of all radio listening is via a digital platform. Based on current digital listening
projections from Rajar, and the roll out of new DAB transmitters from Arqiva and the
BBC, the UK market is set to achieve both of these milestone [sic] in 2013 …”
Will 50% of radio listening in the UK be delivered via digital platforms by 2013? Not a chance.
Even our politicians have admitted this will not happen. Look at the graph below.
DIGITAL PLATFORMS SHARE OF TOTAL UK RADIO LISTENING
(actual and Digital Britain forecast)
5.9%
11.0%
12.5%
16.6%
18.3%
26%
31%
36%
43%
50%
58%
68%
20.9%
0%
50%
2004Q4
2005Q4
2006Q4
2007Q4
2008Q4
2009Q4
2010Q4
2011Q4
2012Q4
2013Q4
2014Q4
2015Q4
2016Q4
2017Q4
2018Q4
historical data (RAJAR) Digital Britain (drive to digital) historical data trendline
The government’s Digital Britain report, published in mid-2009, had forecast that digital
listening would be 26% by year-end 2009, which proved to be wide of the mark. The actual
figure was 20.9%. What is the chance of 50% being reached by 2013? Zero.
So why is this press release so determined to tell us that “the UK market is set to achieve” a
milestone that is so obviously impossible? The answer lies in this next graph which shows that
DAB radio receiver sales in the UK were lower in 2009 than in 2008, and lower in 2008 than in
2007.
Desperation To Sell The UK DAB Radio 'Success' Story (And Sell DAB Hardware) In New Overseas Markets page 2
©2010 Grant Goddard

3. UK QUARTERLY DAB RECEIVER SALES ('000)
39
53
183
111
102
134
510
245
205
294
681
338
287
308
796
382
299
363
964
489
358
366
863
483
335
828
162
153
179
121
101
119
5
17
13
4
18 21
28
20
1
-10
-1
-6 -4
40
34
38
0
250
500
750
1,000
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
2005Q1
2005Q2
2005Q3
2005Q4
2006Q1
2006Q2
2006Q3
2006Q4
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
quarterly DAB receiver sales ('000) [left axis] year-on-year change (%) [right axis]
The market for DAB radio receivers in the UK has been slowing since the end of 2007. DAB
radio unit sales are now less than 2m per annum, a volume last seen in 2006. For financial
stakeholders in the UK DAB radio receiver sector, this is very bad news.
Frontier Silicon is one of those main stakeholders, a private UK-based semiconductor
company that supplies 70% of the global DAB receiver market. With the UK market for DAB
drying up, and the European market never having really developed at all, companies such as
Frontier Silicon are having to look further overseas for DAB sales. Trade shows such as last
week’s Hong Kong Electronics Fair become significant events to convince new territories of
the advantages of DAB radio.
So the Frontier Silicon press release quoted earlier, though datelined “London”, is not intended
for domestic consumption at all. Yes, it might seem laughable in the UK to believe that digital
listening will reach 50% by 2013. But, for Frontier Silicon, this ‘success’ story will help convince
overseas markets that DAB is already a raging success in the company’s homeland. This is
‘sales patter’, not fact.
Who at the Hong Kong event would want to learn that the commercial radio industry in the UK
has been brought financially to its knees by its decision more than a decade ago to pursue the
DAB dream?
[First published by Grant Goddard: Radio Blog as 'Selling The UK DAB Radio "Success" Story Overseas', 17 April
2010.]
Grant Goddard is a media analyst / radio specialist / radio consultant with thirty years of
experience in the broadcasting industry, having held senior management and consultancy
roles within the commercial media sector in the United Kingdom, Europe and Asia. Details at
http://www.grantgoddard.co.uk
Desperation To Sell The UK DAB Radio 'Success' Story (And Sell DAB Hardware) In New Overseas Markets page 3
©2010 Grant Goddard