Analysis of radio industry data demonstrating that assertions by Digital Radio UK that DAB digital radio switchover is imminent are false, written by Grant Goddard in October 2010 for Grant Goddard: Radio Blog.

1. DIGITAL RADIO UK BELIEVES
DAB SWITCHOVER IS A
"MATTER OF WHEN, NOT IF",
IGNORING EVIDENCE FROM UK
RADIO INDUSTRY DATA
by
GRANT GODDARD
www.grantgoddard.co.uk
October 2010

2. Sometimes it seems as if the UK radio industry operates in two parallel universes. On the one
hand, there is the virtual world of the DAB radio lobbyists, a reality that only seems to exist
within the confines of their Soho office and its funders. On the other hand, there is the real
world of the 47 million people in the UK who listen to the industry’s radio stations each week,
spread far and wide across this green and still largely analogue land.
It was only last week that Ford Ennals, chief executive of Digital Radio UK, was telling
anybody who would listen that:
 “There is now real momentum in the transition to digital radio…”
 "… significant progress towards building momentum for digital radio…"
 Digital radio switchover is a "matter of when, not if"
 "We have set a course to double listening and expand coverage by 2013, and to
switchover by the end of 2015"
 “We do believe it is possible to get there in the four- to five-year time period…”
Yet, today, RAJAR published the latest listening figures for UK radio. None of Ennals’
statements are in any way supported by the official radio listening data. “Momentum”? No.
“Real momentum”? No. “To double [digital] listening by 2013”? You have to be joking.
The headlines for all radio listening via platforms in Q3 2010 were:
 Analogue radio’s share of listening up from 67.0% to 67.6% quarter-on quarter
 Digital radio’s share of listening up from 24.6% to 24.8% quarter-on-quarter
 DAB radio’s share of listening down from 15.8% to 15.3% quarter-on-quarter.
Digital Radio UK Believes DAB Switchover Is A "Matter Of When, Not If", Ignoring Evidence From UK Radio Industry
Data page 2
©2010 Grant Goddard

3. At its current long-term growth rate, the government criterion of 50% of radio listening via
digital platforms would not be achieved until year-end 2018. The statistical probability of that
50% threshold being reached by 2013, the achievement of which Ennals is supremely
confident, is zero. Even Derren Brown could not pull off that stunt.
And so these two radio worlds continue on their parallel paths. Digital Radio UK continues to
insist that everything in the digital radio switchover garden is sweetness and light, whilst
wilfully oblivious to the fact that the majority of radio listeners simply could not care less about
DAB – even after more than a decade of being told by the government, Ofcom and the largest
broadcasters that DAB is ‘the future of radio’.
The verdict of UK radio listeners on DAB seems perfectly transparent in the RAJAR data,
though many in the radio industry still refuse to listen. On the other hand, the activities of
Digital Radio UK, still trying to persuade us of DAB’s virtues, are anything but transparent.
After 10 months of existence, its web site remains empty. And the web site of its forerunner,
Digital Radio UK Believes DAB Switchover Is A "Matter Of When, Not If", Ignoring Evidence From UK Radio Industry
Data page 3
©2010 Grant Goddard

4. Digital Radio UK Believes DAB Switchover Is A "Matter Of When, Not If", Ignoring Evidence From UK Radio Industry
Data page 4
©2010 Grant Goddard
the Digital Radio Development Bureau, has been conveniently deleted so that all the empty
promises, inaccurate forecasts and ridiculous propaganda that were generated about DAB
over the last eight years are no longer publicly available.
Those with experience in the radio industry understand perfectly what happens to radio
stations that refuse to listen to their listeners, radio stations that refuse to engage in truthful
dialogue with their audience, and radio stations that are still broadcasting exactly the same
tired messages as they did a decade ago. They die … and nobody misses them when they are
gone.
[First published by Grant Goddard: Radio Blog as 'DAB Radio Usage: Going Nowhere Slowly', 27 October 2010.]
Grant Goddard is a media analyst / radio specialist / radio consultant with thirty years of
experience in the broadcasting industry, having held senior management and consultancy
roles within the commercial media sector in the United Kingdom, Europe and Asia. Details at
http://www.grantgoddard.co.uk