'Lies, Damned Lies And ... Ofcom's First Annual "Digital Radio Progress Report"' by Grant Goddard

LIES, DAMNED LIES AND …
OFCOM'S FIRST ANNUAL
'DIGITAL RADIO PROGRESS
REPORT'
by
GRANT GODDARD
www.grantgoddard.co.uk
August 2010

Ofcom quietly published its first 'Digital Radio Progress Report' in July 2010, without fanfare or
a press release. This report has been a remarkably long time coming, given that DAB radio
has been with us more than a decade. During that time, Ofcom has published 26 'Digital
Television Progress Reports', starting in 2003.
Here was an opportunity for Ofcom to demonstrate that it is acting in the public interest by
publishing solid, objective data about the progress of digital radio in the UK. Did it take that
opportunity? No. Instead, Ofcom published a set of data that are so selective and so distorted
that they misrepresent the progress (or lack of it) made to date in advancing the UK towards
the ‘digital radio switchover’ that our government is determined to execute. Why? Because
Ofcom (like the government’s DCMS department) seems determined to persuade us that its
totally unrealistic plan for DAB radio has not been an unmitigated disaster with the
citizen/consumers on whose behalf it is supposed to be working.
It might appear pedantic to pick over the details of data represented in this feeble 24-page
Ofcom report. However, it must be stressed that this is no nitpicking exercise. The Digital
Economy Act 2010 insists that this very document submitted by Ofcom (and another by the
BBC) to the government will decide whether the UK will progress to ‘digital radio switchover’. It
is these data that will decide whether we can continue to receive BBC network radio stations
on the 100 million analogue radios that are out there. It is these data that could mean we have
to replace perfectly satisfactory analogue radio receivers in every household across the
country, at a cost of millions to consumers.
To note the issues in the order they appear in the Ofcom report:
FIGURE 1
This Ofcom graph purports to show that:
 Digital platforms’ share of radio listening increased from 12.8% to 24.0% between 2007
and 2010 (this is TRUE)
 Analogue platforms’ share of listening decreased from 87.2% to 76.0% between 2007 and
2010 (this is FALSE)
The four figures cited in Figure 1 for the analogue platform – 87.2% in 2007, 82.2% in 2008,
79.9% in 2009 and 76.0% in 2010 – are an Ofcom invention. These false data seek to
demonstrate that a rapid decline in analogue listening has taken place. This is not true. As the
graph below shows, analogue listening has remained remarkably static over this timeframe.
SHARE OF RADIO LISTENING BY PLATFORM (%)
66.1%
71.1%
74.0%
72.7%
69.5%
68.4%
68.6%
67.5%
66.2%
66.1%
66.6%
66.7%
12.9%
15.0%
16.6%
17.8%
17.9%
18.7%
18.3%
20.1%
21.1%
21.1%
20.9%
24.0%
21%
14%
9%
10%
13%
13%
13%
13%
13%
13%
13%
9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
analogue digital unspecified
Lies, Damned Lies And … Ofcom's First Annual 'Digital Radio Progress Report' page 2
©2010 Grant Goddard

The situation is complicated by two facts: a significant proportion of radio listening remains
‘unspecified’ by respondents in RAJAR listening surveys; and that this proportion has varied
greatly in size in different surveys. However, this does not detract from the falsehood of
Ofcom’s attempt to demonstrate that analogue listening is in sharp decline.
FIGURE 2
 54% of 15-24 year olds use digital radio
 29% of 75+ year olds use digital radio.
In fact, the fine print explains that Ofcom had asked the question ‘Have you ever used digital
radio?’ This ensured that the results were almost meaningless because they tell us nothing
whatsoever about current usage of digital radio. For example, a 68-year old who, on a single
occasion ten years ago, had listened to digital radio for 10 minutes will have answered ‘yes’,
despite having made no further usage during the last decade.
Ofcom’s objective here seems to have been to highlight the large size of the resulting
numbers, without indicating that they derive from an almost useless question (garbage in,
garbage out). If you were to ask people ‘Have you ever bought a banana?’, almost 100%
would respond ‘yes’. Their answers tell you absolutely nothing about the current market for
bananas. Exactly the same is true of digital radio usage. In this context, the resulting numbers
seem remarkably low because only half the population has ever tried digital radio (even once
in their lifetime).
FIGURE 3
 53% of adults use digital radio
 63% of adults in socio-economic groups AB use digital radio
 55% of adults in socio-economic group C1 use digital radio
 48% of adults in socio-economic group C2 use digital radio
 42% of adults in socio-economic groups DE use digital radio.
Just as in Figure 2, the fine print explains that Ofcom had asked the question ‘Have you ever
used digital radio? The same issues apply here as with Figure 2.
FIGURE 5
This Ofcom graph shows digital platforms’ share of total radio listening, but the data omit:
 A comparison with the analogue platform
 A time sequence to show how fast the market is changing.
The following graph demonstrates the slow growth of digital platforms and their low level in
comparison with analogue. It also demonstrates that a proportion of the growth in digital
platform usage is the result of a statistical technicality caused by a reduction of ‘unspecified’
listening in recent quarters.

66.7%
24.0%
9.3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
ANALOGUE TOTAL DIGITAL UNSPECIFIED
2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2
2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1
The following graph demonstrates the slow growth of individual digital platforms since 2007,
using the same scale as applied in the preceding graph.
15.1%
4.0% 2.9% 1.9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
LISTENING VIA DAB LISTENING VIA TV LISTENING VIA INTERNET DIGITAL UNSPECIFIED
2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2
2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1
FIGURE 8
 “five digital-only services generated a weekly reach of 1 million+ listeners in Q1 2010.”
However, the fine print explains that the Ofcom data refer to “all listeners [aged] 4+”, whereas
the radio industry’s standard metric is and always has been 'adults 15+'. Indeed, all RAJAR
audience data used in this same Ofcom report refer to 'adults 15+', except for Figure 8.

DIGITAL-ONLY RADIO STATIONS: WEEKLY
ADULT (15+) REACH ('000)
1,055
1,049
1,023
853
694
685
663
471
447
357
264
255
231
226
172
160
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
TheHits
BBCRadio7
BBC6Music
SmashHits
Radio
PlanetRock
FiveLive
SportsExtra
1Xtrafrom
theBBC
JazzFM
Heat
BBCAsian
Network
Absolute80s
Absolute
ClassicRock
Q
NMERadio
PanjabRadio
Chill
Once the graph is re-worked using '15+' instead of '4+' data (see above), it is evident that:
 Only three digital-only radio stations generate a weekly reach of 1m+ adult listeners
 'BBC World Service' was included in the Ofcom graph (and was one of the five stations
cited as exceeding 1m weekly reach) even though it is not digital-only, being available
across a large part of the UK on 648AM
 'BBC Asian Network' was omitted from the Ofcom graph (also available on analogue but
limited to the Midlands)
 Not only are 'Panjab Radio' and 'NME Radio' no longer available on the national DAB
platform (as the Ofcom text notes), but 'Q Radio' is no longer on DAB, and the BBC has
proposed the closure of 'Asian Network'
 These weekly reach data for digital-only stations should be considered in the context of
analogue radio stations – for example, 'BBC Radio 2' has a weekly adult reach of 14.6m.
FIGURE 9
 Digital radio’s current share of listening is “broadly in line with the organic growth outlined
on the [government’s] forecast chart.”
Bizarrely, the Ofcom graph displays the government forecasts but has omitted the historical
data that would show how successfully the forecast has been achieved to date.

DIGITAL PLATFORMS SHARE OF TOTAL UK
RADIO LISTENING (actual & forecast)
2
28%
3
38%
43%
49%
56%
4%
3%
26%
31%
36%
43%
50%
58%
68%
20.9%
0%
50%
2004Q4
2005Q4
2006Q4
2007Q4
2008Q4
2009Q4
2010Q4
2011Q4
2012Q4
2013Q4
2014Q4
2015Q4
2016Q4
2017Q4
2018Q4
Digital Britain (organic growth) historical data (RAJAR)
Digital Britain (drive to digital) historical data trendline
The forecast published in June 2009 predicted that, by year-end 2009 (a mere six months
later), digital platforms would account for 24% or 26%, the latter the result of a concerted ‘drive
to digital.’ In fact, the year-end figure was 21%. The likely reason that Ofcom has failed to
include the historical data is that neither of the two forecasts (‘organic growth’ or the ‘drive to
digital’) has any chance of being realised. If the current growth rate is extrapolated, the 50%
criterion will be reached by year-end 2018, and certainly not by either 2013 or 2015, as the
forecast (credited to Value Partners) predicted.
FIGURE 14
This Ofcom graph and accompanying text assert that:
 “DAB sets made up over a fifth (21%) of all radio sales by volume” in the year to Q1 2010
 “In the portable market, DAB sets accounted for 65% of sales.”
However, Ofcom omitted to point out that:
 Fewer DAB radios had been sold in 2009 than in 2008
 DAB radios were a lower proportion of total radios sold in 2009 than in 2008
 Its reference to “the portable market” is limited strictly to ‘portable radios’ of the type used
in kitchens. There is not a single mobile phone on sale in the UK that includes DAB radio,
and the vast majority of portable media players that include radio do not have DAB radio.

UK RADIO RECEIVER SALES ('000 per annum:
four-quarter moving average)
10,678
10,611
10,657
10,550
10,169
9,892
9,495
8,062
7,978
7,854
7,906
8,140
8,209
8,227
8,030
7,284
7,101
951
1,051
1,208
1,407
1,493
1,566
1,575
1,680
1,734
1,761
1,824
2,006
2,114
2,174
2,180
2,070
1,988
1,899
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Q12005
Q22005
Q32005
Q42005
Q12006
Q22006
Q32006
Q42006
Q12007
Q22007
Q32007
Q42007
Q12008
Q22008
Q32008
Q42008
Q12009
Q22009
Q32009
Q42009
Q12010
analogue radio unit sales ('000) DAB radio unit sales ('000)
In fact, the data in the graph above demonstrate that:
 DAB radio receiver sales volumes peaked in 2007/8 at 2.2m per annum and have declined
13% since then to 1.9m per annum
 Analogue radios contributed a greater proportion of total radio receiver sales in 2009 (79%)
than they had in 2008 (78%)
 DAB has not invigorated the market for radios, with fewer radios sold now than ever,
perhaps due to evident consumer confusion about ‘digital radio switchover’.
FIGURE 17
The Ofcom graph shows that:
 17% of adults say they are likely to buy a DAB radio in the next 12 months.
"How likely is that your household will get a DAB radio in
the next 12 months?" ["6 months" in 2006 and 2007] (%
of responses)
17
76
7
19
74
7
16
64
20
17
55
28
0
25
50
75
100
likely unlikely don't know
2006 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1
However, the Ofcom graph does not offer a historical perspective. The graph above
demonstrates that the propensity to purchase a DAB radio has diminished over time. In 2006,
17% of respondents said they would be likely to buy a DAB radio within the next six months.
In 2010, 17% said they would be likely to buy a DAB radio within the next 12 months. This
would translate into a significant reduction in DAB radio receiver sales. Additionally, the
proportion of respondents who say they do not know if they will purchase a DAB radio

continues to increase over time, perhaps a further symptom of market confusion or DAB
indifference.
Given that Ofcom has had the luxury of several years to prepare this first Digital Radio
Progress Report, the result is a travesty. It should not be the regulator’s role to selectively
highlight and distort data that support its own policies in a document specifically requested by
government in order to inform a parliamentary decision on digital radio switchover. We deserve
better from our public servants. Otherwise, they might as well go and work for Digital Radio
UK, the lobby group (funded by commercial interests and the BBC) busy pumping out
propaganda to try and persuade consumers that they need DAB radio.
On page 5 of this first Digital Radio Progress Report, Ofcom notes:
“Our principal general duty, when carrying out our radio functions, is … to further the
interests of citizens in relation to communications matters.”
Exactly how are citizens' interests being furthered by Ofcom distorting the facts about digital
radio take-up?
POSTSCRIPT
Ofcom responded to two of my criticisms in a subsequent news article in 'Media Week'. Ofcom
explained that it had “categorised ‘unspecified’ listening as ‘analogue’ rather than ‘digital’
listening because it did not want to exaggerate ‘digital’ listening.” What?
This response seems only to confirm my assertion that Ofcom invented the numbers it
published. There are two possible scenarios: either Ofcom did not realise that deliberately mis-
stating the results of market research breaches the Code of Conduct of the Market Research
Society; or Ofcom did realise this but decided to do it anyway. I am uncertain which scenario is
scarier. If Ofcom’s invented RAJAR statistics had been included in an advertisement, it would
be banned by the Advertising Standards Authority. Adding the ‘don’t know’ answers to either
the ‘for’ or the ‘against’ totals in any consumer survey is a crime against statistics.
Secondly, Ofcom responded to my criticism that it had not published historical data to
demonstrate how close we are to achieving the 50% digital listening criterion set by
government. Ofcom said that it “did not set historical figures next to the forecasts because they
are not formal criteria”. What?
I suggest that Ofcom stops daydreaming about a DAB future and starts listening to the words
of its government paymasters. To take just one example of dozens, on 8 July 2010, Culture
Minister Ed Vaizey said very plainly:
“We will only consider implementing a Digital Radio Switchover once at least 50% of
all listening is already on digital or, to put it another way, when analogue listening is in
the minority.”
Besides, Ofcom’s report itself had noted (in two places) that:
“A decision on switchover could only made once two criteria had been fulfilled [sic]:
 when 50% of all radio listening is via digital platforms; and
 when national DAB coverage is comparable to FM …”
The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report published last month was required by the Digital
Economy Act 2010 to inform the government how close the UK is to achieving this 50%
criterion. Yet, bizarrely, the very numbers the government wanted to see were missing from
the relevant Ofcom graph.

In the spirit of constructive action, I have collated a short collection of graphs and tables in a
presentation entitled 'The First Annual Not "The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report" Report'.
All of the data within are derived from freely published industry sources to which Ofcom had
access.
The first section of the report demonstrates that none of the radio industry forecasts for UK
digital radio take-up stand a chance of being achieved, whether those predictions were made
by the government, its committees, Ofcom, RadioCentre, Value Partners or whomever. These
forecasts were not just wrong – they were wildly wrong.
The inability of forecasters to observe the reality of slowing DAB radio take-up in the UK was
underlined by a forecast published in August 2010 by a US company that predicted:
“By 2015, the worldwide installed base of digital radio receivers, excluding handsets, is
expected to reach nearly 200 million units. … ‘The adoption of DAB radios in Europe
has been led primarily by tabletop radio sales in the UK,’ says [Sam] Rosen. In
addition to the US and the UK, Switzerland, Denmark, and Norway all have significant
broadcast infrastructure in place, with Australia, Germany and France to complete the
majority of their infrastructure in 2011.”
Yes, and pigs will fly. It has taken a decade for 11 million DAB radios to be sold in the UK, and
they still only account for 16% of radio listening. Far from the UK’s DAB broadcast
infrastructure being almost complete, there is an impasse about who will stump up the money
to render it fit for purpose. France is still debating whether to go digital at all. Germany
abandoned its first effort and is planning a second attempt. Besides, the US, UK, French and
Australian technology systems for digital terrestrial radio are each mutually exclusive. There is
no globally agreed standard for digital terrestrial radio, so there is no universal ‘digital radio’
receiver, and nothing like 200 million digital radios (of all types) will be sold by 2015.
But a woefully inaccurate, over-optimistic forecast is always a good excuse for writing fantasy
news. In the US, 'Media Post' reported:
“HD digital radio is poised for rapid growth over the next few years … with much of the
increase coming abroad, especially in Europe, where various governments have
established HD radio as the national standard. … US consumers have purchased 4
million HD radio sets, while European consumers – led by the UK – have purchased
about 13.5 million.”
Oh dear. Lie One: the American HD radio system is not a national standard in any European
country. Lie Two: not a single HD radio has been sold in the UK. Lie Three: maybe 13 HD
radios have been sold in Europe, but certainly not 13 million.
Consequently, US broadcast industry trade body NAB summarised this completely inaccurate
news story ("... the real growth is happening overseas, where governments have already
established HD [radio] as a standard technology") and sent it to everyone on its mailing list.
The whole of the US radio sector must be amazed that Europe, led by the UK, has embraced
American HD radio technology so warmly, while it is failing so dismally in its homeland. Wrong!
In reality, no consumer in Europe has even heard of HD radio (except for a few techies testing
it in Switzerland).
Closer to home, the continuing failure of the DAB digital radio system to impress European
consumers seems to have impacted thinking at the European Broadcasting Union [EBU],
which has supported Europe-wide implementation of DAB since 1986. In outlining the agenda
of its fourth Digital Radio Conference [DRC10], the EBU came close to acknowledging that
DAB is no longer ‘the future of radio’:
“Where previous [conference] editions have focused on the relative merits of the
different digital radio platforms and their roll-out across Europe, DRC10 will focus on
radio's position within a pluralistic distribution model. That the discussion of digital
radio's future has, to date, been weighted towards different platforms is

understandable given the uneven pace of Eureka 147 (DAB/DAB+/DMB) adoption and
the rapid deployment of internet to European homes. Indeed, technical development
has now reached something of a plateau. … The debate has moved forward from
which platform might 'win' to how best to chart a digital future for radio on multiple
platforms. … A more fundamental question then is 'what is the case for digital radio?'.
This is about business and social arguments for and against the development of digital
radio in all its forms. It involves the economics of radio revenues and costs, the social
value, the mix of public and commercial broadcasters, as well as the quality and
variety of the offering.”
“Uneven pace”? “Plateau”? “Multiple platforms”? Am I the only one to smell EBU back-
peddling here on the DAB issue? At last year’s EBU conference, I seemed to be the only
speaker exploring “the economics of radio revenues and costs” amongst a sea of technologists
whose enthusiasm for DAB remained unsullied by the constraints of the economics of radio.
Maybe the penny has dropped – a platform remains no more than a platform if you cannot
afford to fill it with compelling, exclusive radio content, and convince consumers to use it, and
generate a profit from it.
Here in the UK, while the biggest commercial radio owners have already baled out of most of
their DAB commitments (and the BBC is trying to close two of its digital stations), the digital
minnows are left suffering the economic consequences of a platform that has effectively been
thrown to the dogs. 'Passion For The Planet', an independent digital-only station that has
persevered on the DAB platform since 2002, announced in August 2010 that it will no longer
broadcast on DAB in London. Managing director Chantal Cooke explained:
“DAB is a great medium for radio, but squabbling within the industry and a lack of
clarity and direction from Ofcom leaves us worried that radio may well have missed a
great opportunity. I believe London has too many stations, and the signal on the
‘London 3’ multiplex has always been, and continues to be, very poor. The lack of a
robust signal has hampered independent services from the start, yet neither the
multiplex operators nor Ofcom has taken the problem seriously. Passion for the Planet
has spent a small fortune broadcasting on ‘London 3’ because we believed in the
platform but, while there are still so many issues to be rectified, further investment in
DAB in London has become increasingly difficult to support.”
The writing on the wall for DAB’s impending failure is writ so large now that Ofcom staff must
have to leave work under cover of darkness not to see it. Large parts of the radio industry
evidently have no faith in DAB ever replacing analogue radio. However, over at Ofcom HQ, the
futile work continues to try and convince consumers and the government that DAB is still ‘the
future of radio’. We will probably never know how much public money and time has been
wasted on these foolish endeavours.
[many thanks to John Catlett and Eivind Engberg for their valuable contributions]
[First published by Grant Goddard: Radio Blog as 'Lies, Damned Lies And … Ofcom's First Digital Radio Progress
Report', 4 August 2010 & 'Download The First Annual Not "The Ofcom Digital Radio Progress Report" Report' 21
August 2010.]
Grant Goddard is a media analyst / radio specialist / radio consultant with thirty years of
experience in the broadcasting industry, having held senior management and consultancy
roles within the commercial media sector in the United Kingdom, Europe and Asia. Details at
http://www.grantgoddard.co.uk

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'Lies, Damned Lies And ... Ofcom's First Annual "Digital Radio Progress Report"' by Grant Goddard