1. April 2015 Existing Home Sales
Conclusion
At a highlevel, April2015 existinghome salesdeclinedto5.04m unitsversusthe 5.19m unitsreportedinMarch
2015, a numberwe believedwasunsustainable giventhatitreflected“badweatherbounceback”inthe Midwest.
The April 2015 results,annualizedandseasonallyadjusted,were the 8th
time inthe last12 monthsthatthe
annualizedandseasonallyadjustedtotal wasgreaterthan5.0m units.
Actual trailing12 monthsales total,whichwere 5.02m unitsinApril 2015, was the 1st
time we climbedabove the
5.0m unitlevel since March2014, whichwere also5.02m units. Saidanotherway,trailing12 monthsaleshave been
flat,pointtopoint,since March 2014.
That said,trailing12 monthsaleshave increased2.6% since the August2014 bottomof 4.9m units. Ona y/ybasis,
actual trailing12 monthssaleshave increased0.6%.
In addition, fromalevel perspective, these trailingtwelvemonthtotalsremaininlinewithresultsseenin1999 when
householdunitswere11%fewerthantoday.
Salescontinue tobe drivenbyhomespricedabove the meanandmedian.
Supplyof homesonthe marketisconsistentwithlevelsseen during“normal”times.
Analysis
1. Volume of Sales
 SeasonallyAdjustedResults and Comparison to Actual Trailing 12 Month Sales
April 2015 existinghome saleswere 5.04m,annualizedandseasonallyadjusted,adecline fromthe previousmonth,
March 2015, whichwas5.21m units.
Actual trailing12 monthsales increasedto 5.02m units, the firsttime theyhave beenabove 5.0munitssince March
2014 whentheywere also5.02m units. While salesona trailing12 monthbasisare flatsince March 2013, theyhave
increased2.6%from theirbottomhitinAugust2014 (4.89m units)andhave increased0.6% y/y:

2. Belowyoucan see thatthe seasonallyadjustedandannualizedresultsare now equal tothe trailing12 monthactual
sale levels,somethingthatrarelyhappensbutisnotsurprisinggiventhattrailing12 monthactual salesare
essentiallyflat(+0.6%) All that said, we remain at levelsseeninthe late 1990s when householdswere 11% less
than the current level:
 Actual April Sales
Actual March 2015 saleswere 44.5k, 5.5% greaterthan April 2014 totalsbut down2% fromApril 2013:
Date TTM, in MM y/y Relative to August 2014
12/31/2013 5.087
1/31/2014 5.077
2/28/2014 5.055
3/31/2014 5.023
4/30/2014 4.991
5/31/2014 4.950
6/30/2014 4.956
7/31/2014 4.931
8/31/2014 4.892
9/30/2014 4.901 0.2%
10/31/2014 4.920 0.4%
11/30/2014 4.909 -0.2%
12/31/2014 4.935 -3.0% 0.5%
1/31/2015 4.935 -2.8% 0.0%
2/28/2015 4.948 -2.1% 0.3%
3/31/2015 4.998 -0.5% 2.2%
4/30/2015 5.021 0.6% 2.6%
TTM Actual Existing Home Sales
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
12/1/1999
4/1/2000
8/1/2000
12/1/2000
4/1/2001
8/1/2001
12/1/2001
4/1/2002
8/1/2002
12/1/2002
4/1/2003
8/1/2003
12/1/2003
4/1/2004
8/1/2004
12/1/2004
4/1/2005
8/1/2005
12/1/2005
4/1/2006
8/1/2006
12/1/2006
4/1/2007
8/1/2007
12/1/2007
4/1/2008
8/1/2008
12/1/2008
4/1/2009
8/1/2009
12/1/2009
4/1/2010
8/1/2010
12/1/2010
4/1/2011
8/1/2011
12/1/2011
4/1/2012
8/1/2012
12/1/2012
4/1/2013
8/1/2013
12/1/2013
4/1/2014
8/1/2014
12/1/2014
4/1/2015
Existing Home Sales, Seasonally Adjusted, As Reported Existing Home Sales, Actual, Trailing 12 Months

3. 2. Quality of the Buyer
April salessaw nochange in the relative participationof firsttime,cash,andinvestorbuyers:
The firsttime buyerpercentage remainsatlowlevels buthave improvedoff the bottom:
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
April Existing Home Sales, Non-Seasonally
Adjusted (1999-Present)
April Existing Home Sales, Non-Seasonally Adjusted (1999-Present)
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
Existing Home Sales, By Type of Buyer
Investors 1st Time Buyer All Cash

4. 3. Identityof the Buyer
Existinghome saleswere drivenbysurgesinthe salesof home pricesabove boththe median($219k) andaverage
($265k) andare increasingly movingtothe higherendsof the market:
Shownanotherway,youcan see that the accelerationinthe existinghome sale markethascome fromthe price
levelsabove the meanandmedian:
April 2015 Regional Sales Change Less April 2014 Regional Sales Change, by Price
0-100K 100-250K 250-500K 500-750K 750k-1.0m
Northeast -4.6% 10.5% 13.5% 9.3% 15.3%
Midwest 9.0% 23.3% 35.7% 19.2% 15.4%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55% 1q09
2q09
3q09
4q09
1q10
2q10
3q10
4q10
1q11
2q11
3q11
4q11
1q12
2q12
3q12
4q12
1q13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Existing Home Sales, 1st Time Buyer
1st Time Buyer
Y/Y Change in Distribution of Sales, by Price Range - US Overall
0-100K 100-250K 250-500K 500-750K 750k-1.0m 1m+
Apr-15 -10.1% 9.0% 21.2% 19.1% 18.0% 13.0%
Mar-15 -4.4% 15.6% 26.9% 24.9% 25.8% 24.0%
Feb-15 -9.0% 8.1% 18.1% 16.2% 12.6% 14.3%
Jan-15 -10.0% 2.0% 10.1% 4.1% 13.0% 2.4%
Dec-14 -4.4% 8.9% 16.0% 15.7% 10.4% 5.2%
Nov-14 -16.0% -1.0% 6.8% 7.1% 3.1% 4.5%
Oct-14 -6.0% 9.7% 10.7% 10.0% 12.4% 16.2%
Sep-14 -7.4% 4.1% 10.0% 6.3% 5.7% 8.1%
Aug-14 -15.9% -3.5% -0.8% -1.5% -1.7% 2.7%
Jul-14 -12.9% -3.4% 1.1% -1.5% 0.5% 5.0%
Jun-14 -8.6% 2.3% 7.2% 4.0% 6.8% 8.5%
May-14 -14.5% -6.6% -2.5% -1.7% -0.1% 4.0%
Apr-14 -12.0% -5.1% 0.2.% 0.3% 2.4% 5.2%

5. South -4.6% 9.7% 17.7% 27.1% -5.4%
West 12.2% 13.6% 25.9% 26.8% 26.1%
Total 1.9% 14.1% 21.0% 18.8% 15.6%
4. Supplyof Homes on the Market
Overall supplyonthe market increasedto5.3 monthsfrom4.6 monthsreportedinthe previousmonthbutbelow
the 5.7 monthsreportedinApril 2014. While the currentlevel isbelowthe longtermaverage,itisabove the supply
level seenduring1999-2005. Nonetheless,at5.3 months,we view the marketasbalanced:
The same can be saidof monthsof supplyfor existing1-4familyhomes,whichisnow above the level seenfrom
1998-2006:
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
1/1/1999
10/1/1999
7/1/2000
4/1/2001
1/1/2002
10/1/2002
7/1/2003
4/1/2004
1/1/2005
10/1/2005
7/1/2006
4/1/2007
1/1/2008
10/1/2008
7/1/2009
4/1/2010
1/1/2011
10/1/2011
7/1/2012
4/1/2013
1/1/2014
10/1/2014
Months Supply, Total Existing Homes
Months Supply, Total US Existing Homes Average

6. 5. Size of Housing to Overall US GDP
Housingactivityisnowback inline with GDP:
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
6/1/1982
12/1/1983
6/1/1985
12/1/1986
6/1/1988
12/1/1989
6/1/1991
12/1/1992
6/1/1994
12/1/1995
6/1/1997
12/1/1998
6/1/2000
12/1/2001
6/1/2003
12/1/2004
6/1/2006
12/1/2007
6/1/2009
12/1/2010
6/1/2012
12/1/2013
Months Supply, Existing Homes, 1-4
Family
Months Supply, Existing Homes, 1-4 Family Average

7. 2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
11.00%
12.00%
3/1/1968
6/1/1969
9/1/1970
12/1/1971
3/1/1973
6/1/1974
9/1/1975
12/1/1976
3/1/1978
6/1/1979
9/1/1980
12/1/1981
3/1/1983
6/1/1984
9/1/1985
12/1/1986
3/1/1988
6/1/1989
9/1/1990
12/1/1991
3/1/1993
6/1/1994
9/1/1995
12/1/1996
3/1/1998
6/1/1999
9/1/2000
12/1/2001
3/1/2003
6/1/2004
9/1/2005
12/1/2006
3/1/2008
6/1/2009
9/1/2010
12/1/2011
3/1/2013
6/1/2014
Existing Home Sales Median Price * Volume/GDP, Nominal
Existing Home Sales Median Price * Volume/GDP Average (1968-Present) Average (1968-6/30/1997)