Top 10 green building megatrends
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The document discusses key green building megatrends for 2012. It identifies that growth in green building is expected to rebound in the US while continuing to expand globally. Federal momentum for green building initiatives in the US has slowed, shifting focus to more activity at the state and local levels. The use of the LEED-EBOM rating system surpassed LEED-NC in certified building area, with non-US growth outpacing domestic growth. Issues around water conservation and zero-net energy buildings are also gaining importance globally. Performance disclosure policies and carbon rating systems are spreading internationally.
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Top 10 green building megatrends
- 1. Green Building MegaTrends What You Need to Know To Succeed in 2012 ©2012 Yudelson Associates
- 2. Green Building MegaTrends US Trends Global Trends • Green building growth to • Global green building rebound movement continues to grow • Federal momentum slowed • LEED system in 161 countries • Action switches to state/local level • Green rating systems converge • LEED-EBOM will gain further • Performance disclosure momentum • Global carbon ratings • Water issues will continue to • Solar power stalls • Incentives reduced grow in importance • Zero-net-energy buildings • Building management goes into The Cloud ©2012 Yudelson Associates
- 3. Green Building Growth Rebounds • Overall growth only +3% in 2011 • 10,000 projects certified; 30,000 registered • 2010: Annual LEED-EBOM certified area exceeds LEED– NC for the first time • 1284 certified EBOM projects (but typical area is 300+ KSF) • 44% of US market (by floor area) • 42% Gold and Platinum • 2011: LEED-EBOM project registrations up 18% • 2011: Total LEED-EBOM certified project area exceeds cumulative LEED-NC area for 1st time • 675 million SF certified in EBOM (vs. 649 million in NC) • Source: Green Building and Market Impact Report, 2011, by Rob Watson, http://www.greenbiz .com/research/report/2011/11/07/green-building-market-and-impact-report-2011 ©2012 Yudelson Associates
- 4. LEED-EBOM vs. LEED-NC • 2010: Annual LEED-EBOM certified area exceeds LEED– NC for the first time • 1284 certified EBOM projects (but typical area is 300 KSF) • 44% of US market (by floor area) • 42% Gold and Platinum • 2011: LEED-EBOM project registrations up 18% • 2011: Total LEED-EBOM certified project area exceeds cumulative LEED-NC area for 1st time • 675 million SF certified in EBOM (vs. 649 million in NC) • Non-US growth is greater than US growth in 2011 • Global movement in the property sector toward certification ©2012 Yudelson Associates
- 5. Federal Momentum Slows • 2012 DoD authorization: No money for LEED • Federal government is broke! • GSA Energy Savings Performance Contracts (ESPC) spending continues • http://www1.eere.energy.gov/femp/financing/espcs.html • Solar scandals hurt support for other initiatives • State/local level spending, policy initiatives continue ©2012 Yudelson Associates
- 6. LEED-EBOM Is Dominant • LEED EBOM surpasses LEED NC annually in 2010 • LEED EBOM cumulatively greater than NC in 2011 • Green rebranding may move to other sectors • Retail • Hotels • Healthcare • Clinton/Obama Better Buildings Initiative • $4 billion investment deal announced December • http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/44/post/president-obama-calls-on-bill-clinton -to-help-unveil-energy-efficiency-program-for-office-buildings/2011/12/01/gIQAzF17IO_blog.html ©2012 Yudelson Associates
- 7. Water Gains Importance • Continued droughts along southern tier of US • CA: 20% less by 2020 (vs.2008) • LEED requires minimum 20% savings vs. code • Rainwater capture meets multiple goals • Graywater gets into the code • Blackwater treatment advances ©2012 Yudelson Associates
- 8. Zero Net Energy Buildings • NREL building has huge impact • HOK/Weidt Group demonstrates cost-effectiveness • http://netzerocourt.com/ • Needs low EUI first (30 to 35kBTU/sq.ft./year) • Best for 2-4 story buildings • Business case is solid • 2011 BD&C Magazine: • http://www.bdcnetwork.com/2011-white-paper-zero-and-net-zero-energy-buildings-homes • Bullitt Foundation, Seattle • http://bullitt.org/news/the-bullitt-foundation-announces-plans-for-the-cascadia-center-for-sustainable-design-and-construction ©2012 Yudelson Associates
- 9. Global Green Building Movement • >90 national Green Building Councils • LEED projects registered in 161 countries • 44% of total registrations outside US in 2011 • 700 projects certified • Convergence toward common carbon metrics and common rating system concerns among “Big 3” • LEED • BREEAM • Green Star ©2012 Yudelson Associates
- 10. Performance Disclosure • European Union Energy Performance in Buildings Directive (EPBD) and Display Energy Certificates (DECs) already in place • Australia requires all commercial buildings >20,000 sf to disclose energy use • Seattle requires disclosure • >10,000 sq.ft. (commercial/multi-family) • April 1, 2012 effective date • http://www.seattle.gov/dpd/GreenBuilding/OurProgram/EnergyBenchmarkingDisclosure/Overview/ • Global movement • Politically easy move for cities to take • Spurs owners to take action on carbon emissions ©2012 Yudelson Associates
- 11. Global Carbon Ratings • Global Real Estate Sustainability Benchmark (GRESB) • www.nilskok.com • Global property management companies • Responsible property investing • Australia most advanced ©2012 Yudelson Associates
- 12. Solar Power Stalls • Solar costs coming down, BUT • May be hard to crack $3000/KW ($3/watt) installed in commercial sector • Argues for more focus on large-scale solar • Government incentives reduced • Feed-in tariffs were most effective above $0.25/kWh • Focus shifting back to energy efficiency • Other side: Renewables goals, solar power stations ©2012 Yudelson Associates
- 13. Building Management in the Cloud • Global companies invest in building management software • E.g., IBM, Siemens, JCI, etc. • Tied in with wireless sensors and controls • Shortage of trained operators drives change • ‘Intelligent building management’ no longer an oxymoron ©2012 Yudelson Associates
- 14. Discussion? For further information: See Jerry’s website www.greenbuildconsult.com Or follow Twitter: @jerryyudelson ©2012 Yudelson Associates