Solutions for a low-carbon transition and prospects for COP-21 The Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project (DDPP)

1. Solutions for a low-carbon transition
and prospects for COP-21
The Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project
(DDPP)
Henri WAISMAN
IDDRI
Astana Economic Forum – 21 May 2015
Session: Decarbonization and carbon trading - the drivers of the "new economy".

2. 2°C , a political target
 “Deep cuts in global GHG emissions are required according to
science, and as documented in IPCC AR4, […] so as to hold the
increase in global average temperature below 2 °C above pre-
industrial levels” (Cancun agreement - décision 1/CP.16)
 No plan B at political level
 Compatibility of national commitments with 2°C
 Global peaking around 2020
 At current pace (36 GtCO2 in 2010), budget exhausted in 15 - 40 years
Global emissions in absolute: divided by more than 2 by 2050 (36 →15Gt)
 Emissions per capita: divided by more than 3 (4,9 → 1,6tCO2/cap)
 Emissions per GDP: divided by almost 10 (400 →50 gCO2/$)
Carbon neutrality in the second half of XXIe century
 Profound transformations

3. How to reach 2°C?
Deep Decarbonization Pathways
Deep Decarbonization Pathways (DDPs) = internally coherent visions of
large-scale & long-term low-carbon transformation of the energy system
around 4 pillars
 Structural change
 Energy efficiency
 Decarbonization of energy supply (electricity, fuels)
 Fuel switching towards low-carbon energies
 What combination of measures?
 Implementation and operational aspects (techniques, finance,
politicies)

4. The role of Deep Decarbonization
Pathways (DDPs)
 Support the national definition of the INDC
 Consistency of national contributions with 2°C (long-term)
 Provide information that complements and enrichs the short-term
and aggregate representation given in NDCs
 Enable discussions on national mitigation strategies to increase
ambition
at the country-scale (with different groups of national
stakeholders supporting different visions of the transition)
with the international community (other Parties, sectoral experts,
practitioners…)
 Identify strategic domains for global action in support of national
transitions

5. DEEP DECARBONIZATION PATHWAYS
PROJECT – GENERAL PRESENTATION

6. Objectives
 Support/inform the elaboration and implementation of
decarbonization strategies consistent with the 2°C
 No ex-ante allocation of carbon budget from the top
 National deep transformations (≠ marginal adjustments from
current trends) + Transition challenges
 Favor the appropriation by policymakers and stakeholders of
challenges and opportunities of their low-carbon transition
Improve learning inside countries (Cf. nationales debates on
energy and climate)
Structure dialog among countries (Cf. dynamic negotiation
process after Paris)

7. Approach
Elaborate decarbonization pathways that are
 National : articulation development / mitigation
National circumstances, interests and needs: socio-eco
conditions, development priorities, infrastructure stock,
resource endowment
 Transparent : explicit content
Transformations disaggregated by sector and by driver of
decrabonization
 Long-term: backcasting to 2050
Tension between initial situation and long-term demanding
target

8. (Current) Organisation
 A joint initiative IDDRI / SDSN
 16 countries (70% of 2010 CO2 emissions )
 16 country teams, independent of their governments
 Expert judgment
 National models
 Policy relevance

9. DDPP analysis after 2015
 Extending the number and types of countries
 Different levels of development
 Different challenges and interests in the energy field
 Beyond energy
 Help to structure the national debates around energy/climate with
diverse stakeholders carrying different visions
 Support capacity building within the countries to ensure the
availability of assessment tools able to inform discussions
 New scales of analysis (cities, regions…)

10. DEEP DECARBONIZATION PATHWAYS
PROJECT – 2015 ANALYSIS

11. www.deepdecarbonization.org

12. DDPP analysis in 2015
 Two types of reports :
 National reports (May-June 2015)
 Global synthesis report (September 2015)
 Refining and extend the analysis of national decarbonization
trajectories
 Technical and structural assumptions
 Socio-economic dimensions
 National and global financial needs
 Policy and measures at national and global scales
 Uncertainties and dynamic adjustment of trajectories

13. Some high-level insights from the
DDPP (1/2)
12/9/14 13
 Deep decarbonization consistent with the 2°C target is feasible in all
contexts
– DDPs can be defined in all countries of analysis
– Countries have a wide array of choices (societal preferences).
– Ambitious early action is required in all contexts
 The implementation of deep decarbonization is realistic and
accessible
– Short-term action relies on already existing solutions
– Energy sector investments are only marginally higher than current
trends, but their structure must change substantially
– Long-term DD relies on technologies that are not currently
available but the portfolio of required solutions is already known

14. Some high-level insights from the
DDPP (2/2)
12/9/14 14
 Deep decarbonization can favor the emergence of a desired energy
model for economic development
– Sensitivity to volatile and uncontrolled external conditions.
– Decarbonization and domestic socio-economic development
priorities can be addressed consistently
– Improved energy access and tackling energy poverty.
 International cooperation is crucial
– Clear and early collective signal to favor alignment of expectations
– Globally coordinated technology push to develop a wide portfolio
of low-carbon technologies (no silver bullet)
– Regulation of trade patterns to avoid extreme polarization of
carbon-intensive goods

15. BACKUP SLIDES
12/9/14 15

16. Emission pathways for the 15
countries
 Important reductions
2050/2010
o -45% in absolute
o -56% per capita
o -88% per unit of GDP
 … but not enough for the
2°C target
CO2 Emissions
(Gt)
IPCC estimates
(world)
15 DDPs
Cumul
2010-2050
825 792

17. Deep decarbonization requires all
technical pillars

18. Technical solutions are different across
the countries

19. The short-term challenge

20. Deep decarbonization is compatible
with continued economic growth

21. Deep decarbonization is compatible
with access to energy services
(ex: mobility)

22. Beyond technical improvements:
structural change and development
styles