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How to Understand the ROI of Investing in People
1. How to Understand the
ROI of Investing in People
U s ing Employee Lifetime Value to
artic ulate ROI
Lauren Ryan
Senior Director of Growth Marketing, Greenhouse
@_LaurenRyan_
2.
3. R O I I S H A R D E R T O M E A S U R E W I T H P E O P L E
4. M O S T C O M P A N I E S D O T W O T H I N G S
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Copy others Underinvest
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R A I S I N G T H E B A R
How high someone can go How much higher
they go over time
How quickly
they ramp
16. TIME
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R A I S I N G T H E B A R
How high someone can go How much higher
they go over time
How long they stay
How quickly
they ramp
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T H E E M P L O Y E E L I F E C Y C L E
How high someone can go How much higher
they go over time
How long they stay
How quickly
they ramp
18. TIME
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T H E E M P L O Y E E L I F E C Y C L E
How high someone can go How much higher
they go over time
How long they stay
How quickly
they ramp
Onboarding
Hiring Management &
Development
Management &
Culture
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A S S U M P T I O N
CASE 1
6 months to ramp and
consistently hit quota
A better onboarding
program can decrease
ramp time by 30%1
CASE 2
4 months to ramp and
constituently hit quota
1. Organizations with a strong onboarding process improve new hire retention by
82% and productivity by over 70%. (Brandon Hall, The True Cost of a Bad Hire,
2015)
O N B O A R D I N G
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A S S U M P T I O N
CASE 1
6 months to ramp and
consistently hit quota
CASE 2
4 months to ramp and
constituently hit quota
A better onboarding
program can decrease
ramp time by 30%1
1. Organizations with a strong onboarding process improve new hire retention by
82% and productivity by over 70%. (Brandon Hall, The True Cost of a Bad Hire,
2015)
O N B O A R D I N G
Case2: Fully ramped
in 4 months
Case1: Still ramping
4 months in
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A S S U M P T I O N
1. A study from the Boston Consulting Group shows that recruiting is the HR
function with the highest impact on revenue. Excellent recruiting practices contribute
to more than 3x revenue growth and 2x profit margins.
A better hire can
outperform a peer
by 20%1
CASE 2
Consistently surpasses
monthly sales quota by
bringing on $60k per month
Consistently hits $50k
per month sales quota
CASE 1
H I R I N G
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A S S U M P T I O N
1. A study from the Boston Consulting Group shows that recruiting is the HR
function with the highest impact on revenue. Excellent recruiting practices contribute
to more than 3x revenue growth and 2x profit margins.
A better hire can
outperform a peer
by 20%1
CASE 2
Consistently surpasses
monthly sales quota by
bringing on $60k per month
Consistently hits $50k
per month sales quota
CASE 1
H I R I N G
Case 2: 20%
more sales
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A S S U M P T I O N
1. Companies that hire managers based on their management skills saw a 48%
increase in profitability. (State of the American Manager, Gallup, April 2015)
Great management and
development practices
can improve an
employee’s
performance by
by 20% in a year1
CASE 2
Goes from $60k in monthly
sales to $72k in monthly
sales in year 2
Continues to hit $50k
per month sales quota
CASE 1
M A N A G E M E N T & D E V E L O P M E N T
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A S S U M P T I O N
Great management and
development practices
can improve an
employee’s
performance by
by 20% in a year1
CASE 2
Goes from $60k in monthly
sales to $72k in monthly
sales in year 2
Continues to hit $50k
per month sales quota
CASE 1
1. Companies that hire managers based on their management skills saw a 48%
increase in profitability. (State of the American Manager, Gallup, April 2015)
M A N A G E M E N T & D E V E L O P M E N T
Case 2: 20%
increase in
sales in year 2
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A S S U M P T I O N
1. 36% of people switching jobs left because they were “unsatisfied with the work
environment / culture” of their previous employer. (Why and How People Change
Jobs, LinkedIn, 2015)
A great culture,
coupled with good
management, can
increase employee
tenure by one year1
CASE 2
Continues to thrive for
another year
Starts to look for a new
job 20 months in; leaves
after 2 years
CASE 1
C U L T U R E & M A N A G E M E N T
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A S S U M P T I O N
1. 36% of people switching jobs left because they were “unsatisfied with the work
environment / culture” of their previous employer. (Why and How People Change
Jobs, LinkedIn, 2015)
A great culture,
coupled with good
management, can
increase employee
tenure by one year1
CASE 2
Continues to thrive for
another year
Starts to look for a new
job 20 months in; leaves
after 2 years
CASE 1
C U L T U R E & M A N A G E M E N T
N ET
R EVENUE
(1,000s)
28. P U T T I N G I T A L L T O G E T H E R : 3 - Y E A R O V E R V I E W
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P U T T I N G I T A L L T O G E T H E R : 3 - Y E A R O V E R V I E W
$1,300,000
2.5x
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FEATURES
SH IPPED
A D A P T I N G T O O T H E R R O L E S : W H A T A B O U T E N G I N E E R S ?
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A D A P T I N G T O O T H E R R O L E S : W H A T A B O U T E N G I N E E R S ?
PR ODUCT
FEATURES
SHIPPED
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A D A P T I N G T O O T H E R R O L E S : W H A T A B O U T E N G I N E E R S ?
PR ODUCT
FEATURES
SHIPPED
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8OU TPUT
R E V I S I T I N G E M P L O Y E E L I F E T I M E V A L U E
Hiring a better person
Hiring a person
more suited for
the job
ROI
40. E X A M P L E
Proposal
Template
G R E E N H O U S E P R O P O S A L
Situation Analysis
W h a t ’ s t h e c u r r e n t s t a t e o f t h i n g s ?
U s e d a t a a n d i n f o r m a t i o n f r o m y o u r
c o m p a n y a n d s u p p o r t i n g d a t a f r o m
e x t e r n a l s t u d i e s .
Proposed Solution
H o w d o y o u ‘ c o m b a t ’ t h e p r o b l e m ,
o r l e v e r a g e t h e o p p o r t u n i t y ?
41. E X A M P L E
Proposal
Template
110 5th Ave 3rd Floor
New York, NY 10011
Return on Investment
I n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d a n d b u s i n e s s i m p a c t .
e x t e r n a l s t u d i e s .
Proposed Solution
H o w d o y o u ‘ c o m b a t ’ t h e p r o b l e m ,
o r l e v e r a g e t h e o p p o r t u n i t y ?
Obstacles, Challenges
and Open Questions
N o p l a n i s f r e e f r o m o b s t a c l e s .
B e u p f r o n t a b o u t w h a t t h o s e a r e .
42. E X A M P L E
Proposal
Template
G R E E N H O U S E P R O P O S A L
Situation Analysis
Our recruiting process is not currently set up to
make data-driven decisions. Because of this,
hiring managers often have to rely on gut-feel
when making hiring decisions.
• At [OUR.CO], the Recruiting Team has no easy
way to track basic recruiting metrics like Days
to Offer or Candidate Satisfaction
• At [OUR.CO], 15% of new hires are classified
as ‘not the right fit for the job’ at their 6-month
check-in
• A study by the BCG group showed that
excellent recruiting practices contribute to
more than 2x profit margins
• Industry studies show that hiring decisions
based on gut-feel are more likely to be
influenced by unconscious bias, which
adversely impacts a company’s Diversity &
Inclusion initiatives
43. E X A M P L E
Proposal
Template
G R E E N H O U S E P R O P O S A L
Proposed Solution
Transform the recruiting process to facilitate
evidence-based and data-driven decisions.
• Develop a set of Recruiting KPIs to send to all
stakeholders at a regular cadence. Set goals
and targets around the KPIs and communicate
progress.
• Hire a Data Analyst to develop recruiting
reports, analyze metrics, and recommend
continuous optimizations on the recruiting
process.
• Create ‘offer packets’ to share with Department
Heads before approving offers. Offer packets
should include all feedback and scorecards
submitted about the candidate.
44. E X A M P L E
Proposal
Template
G R E E N H O U S E P R O P O S A L
Return on Investment
Investment required
• Data Analyst to manage initiative ($60k/year)
Business impact
By using data to inform process improvement and
hiring decisions, we can make a significant impact
on the employee lifetime value (ELTV).
Specifically:
• Increase quality of hire
• Increase percentage of employees who stay past
6 months
45. E X A M P L E
Proposal
Template
G R E E N H O U S E P R O P O S A L
Obstacles, Challenges,
& Open questions
Like with any data project, the first step will
be ensuring data integrity. It is likely that
our data is not complete enough to report
on as-is and will need an extensive “data
clean-up” before we’re ready to start
reporting regularly.
The program will need hiring manager buy-
in. In order to create offer packets and
track all of the data, interviewers will have
to input their feedback in a timely manner.
Hiring manager support in this initiative will
be very helpful.
46. G R E E N H O U S E P R O P O S A L
Return on Investment
I n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d a n d b u s i n e s s i m p a c t .
Situation Analysis
W h a t ’ s t h e c u r r e n t s t a t e
o f t h i n g s ? U s e d a t a a n d i n f o r m a t i o n
f r o m y o u r c o m p a n y a n d s u p p o r t i n g
d a t a f r o m e x t e r n a l s t u d i e s .
Proposed Solution
H o w d o y o u ‘ c o m b a t ’ t h e p r o b l e m ,
o r l e v e r a g e t h e o p p o r t u n i t y ?
Obstacles, Challenges
and Open Questions
N o p l a n i s f r e e f r o m o b s t a c l e s . B e u p f r o n t
a b o u t w h a t t h o s e a r e .
E X A M P L E
Proposal
Template
47. Employee Lifetime Value
Onboarding, hiring,
management,
development, &culture
Relative value vs absolute
numbersTakeaways
H o d i e O r d o
F I G N º 0 1
Small improvements can
have a 6x return on ELTV
4
Frame proposals as ELTV
business cases
5
Hi, I’m Lauren
I’m the Sr. Director of Growth Marketing at Greenhouse, and before that I led our Talent Acquisition team.
And I’m excited to talk to you about crafting a compelling ROI business case for people
- warning: there’s going to be math. I promise it’s not too tough, but I hope we all had a little coffee.
My first job out of college was at a healthcare consulting firm. We would help our clients get better rates on their insurance contracts. When we were selling the projects, we’d be able to tell potential clients pretty concretely how much more money they’d make next year, and just charge them a little bit less than that.
Turns out that’s the easiest type of consulting project to sell, because the ROI is really clear and easy to communicate.
Then, I went to bschool. And, though the ROI on that decision is a bit murkier, the concept of how to look for and demonstrate ROI was really drilled in.
And then when I found myself as the head of recruiting and I started to try to apply ROI logic to the people world.
The approach to demonstrating that a return is bigger than investment happens all across business, its how we make decisions.
But when it comes to people practices, ROI gets pretty tough to calculate and we end up with a sort of “fuzzy math”
The investment, or cost, is pretty straightforward. We’re usually asking for money or time. We ask for people, programs, software, trainings, etc. But we really struggle with figuring out the return part of the equation.
And that means we end up with known cost, unknown return, and businesses typically don’t do that well with uncertainty. And it puts us as a People function at a disadvantage compared to the rest of the business.
In response to that fuzzy math, most companies do one of two things
Anything (they copy what other companies do, essentially copy/pasting vision/strategy from other companies onto their own), without understanding what the ROI is for their org
A great example of this is the perks war we see at tech companies.
OR: Nothing! (they under-invest in their people). And, I will say, it’s easy to underestimate how much you can get by investing in People practices
So lots of companies understaff their People functions or wait too long to build it out.
Neither solution results in a good ROI
How do other parts of the business do it?
If you look at what marketing does, they said “I’ve been delivering 50,000 leads per year at some specific budget. But I have (with a new software) a way for us to do 100,000 leads. And, the software is cheaper than what we spent for the first 50, and the what does the exec team say? “do it.”
Let’s try another one
How many of you are tech companies, where a lot of your hiring is for engineers
What if the CTO said…
You know that 1-year product roadmap we’ve all committed to? Guess what? With 2 extra hires to add to my management layer, I can.. [slide]
My team can finish it in half the time. Yes, the whole 1-year development roadmap, we’ll do it in 6 months.
What would the reaction be? The executive team would probably (a) be ecstatic, and (b) give a little extra investment, right?
Of course they would.
HOW
How do we have those conversations? What is our story for the return I’m going to provide, if you give me this investment?
It’s about getting past this fuzzy math – getting past the known cost, unknown return.
What we need to do is understand the ROI of our efforts.
[SLIDE]
Here’s an idea I’m sure many of you have heard of Customer LTV? Common business term, we use it all the time. There’s a view of that for employees as well. There’s a certain lifetime value that an employee brings to your organization, and our job is to drive that, to increase that, to prove that our investments are working.
[SLIDE]
It helps us ask the $100,000 questions instead of the $1000 questions
The reason it hasn’t happened yet is pretty straightforward.
It’s really hard to calculate this. For a few clear reasons.
[SLIDE]
First, it’s very difficult to assign a concrete value to a human being and their impact on your company What do you do for an engineer? Is it lines of code? Most CTOs would kill me if I said that. Features shipped?
[SLIDE]
Too many variables (choosing what to measure) Ok, you can assign a revenue number to a sales person. But, what about the other contributions? How someone improves the culture? What they do outside of their day job? If they help the rest of the team?
[SLIDE]
Too subjective (how to measure it) Basically, any output that is qualitative. All companies have that - like think about your legal team – unless you get sued and you can test the quality of your contracts, how do you know your contracts are good? You have to qualitatively decide your contracts are good.
Those hurdles are real, and not what I intend to solve in this room with you today. But we wouldn’t be hosting this webinar today if I didn’t have an answer for you.
I have a solution. Forget cacluating. We don’t have to calculate to be able to crack the code. We don’t need to equation that tells us that someone is an 8.2 ELTV compared to a 12.5
Instead, we can compare. [SLIDE]
And that’s what we’re going to talk about today.
So far, Since we don’t trust our calculations, we don’t do anything to measure, and thus, don’t get to a good ROI
It’s pushed all of us to think very tactically about people
we avoid the strategic conversation about ROI altogether
So let’s crack that code today - Let’s do some measuring (comparing)
And let’s talk about how to have this conversation with our executive teams
Two ways you can demonstrate impact.
Have numbers and measure the impact. Eg. Marketing leads. New number of leads.
You can’t do that, you can illustrate how far you’ve moved. Show a base case. Comparing where you start from to where you end up.
So, in that context, here’s how we’re going to spend our time:
Articulating return on engagement
Comparing return on engagement -> by mapping out the employee lifecycle. And doing some math together.
Changing it / moving the levers / impact. Creating impact
Making the case
My goal is for you to be able to do this reliably at your company and not just leave with a theory you aren’t sure how to implement.
We’ve been using this internally, we’ve used it with some of our customers. I don’t think it’s perfect yet, so I’d love your feedback. As you start to use this, tell us what worked, and let’s make it better together.
[introduce axis – I have numbers here, but don’t get too hung up on them. The numbers don’t mean much except that they go from negative to positive, and increase.
First let’s simplify the equation a little
We can break the employee lifecycle into four distinct gates (Less emphasis on the four gates, more on the variables). We’ll look at a very generic, boring employee journey.
[SLIDE] Start date (note on why “start” date is negative)
[SLIDE] Fully contributing member
[SLIDE] Decision to leave (lots of random doctor appts in the same 3 weeks)
[SLIDE] Last day
And the area under this curve (the integral, for math people) is the Employee Lifetime Value.
Any improvement we make to this curve, at any of these points, will change the ROI. Now, let’s understand the variables in this equation. [talk through this]
There are a few ways we can start to growing this area under the curve:
Decrease the time it takes for them to ramp to fully contributing member. If they ramp faster, there’s less time they aren’t productive, so more output in a similar period of time.
How high someone can go naturally >> this is quality of hire
How much higher they can go over time with the right inputs
How long they stay
The whole area is your new ELTV
The green is your incremental. That’s the ROI that we’re trying to capture. That’s the return. That’s how much better you can be when you’re good at impacting these variables.
And you can loosely map these to distinct people practices. [SLIDE]
It’s a loose map – I’d argue culture impacts all of these
Why Hiring is after Onboarding is a little counter intuitive. Hiring comes second because how high someone can go is impacted by quality of hire.
Anyone ready for math? We’re going to walk through a hypothetical case study of 2 companies and see how this plays out over time with different scenarios. There are two scenarios – Company 1 has fine, normal people practices. Company 2 is a little bit better people practices. We aren’t comparing extremes, because the point I want to stress is that even modest improvements can really increase your ELTV, so I don’t want to compare Michael Jordan and middleschool basketball player.
And something else before we move on. Our team did a lot of research aggregating all the different papers and studies that could help back up the assumptions we’ll make. And I’ll say the data is helpful & directional, but we noticed there isn’t nearly enough good People data. So let’s all push for htat.
Now for the math part.
Let’s put numbers to all of this.
Sales person: $60k/year salary -> $5k /mo
Quota: $600k yearly quota -> $50k /mo
I’m going to make some conservative assumptions. Remember, we’re making conservative assumptions here.
[reference data on the slide]
The base case is a good person. They’re hitting quota. And we’re only looking at someone who does a little better -- $60k per month. And it starts to really add up.
Let’s review the assumptions we made:
Case 2 vs Case 1
-30% faster ramp
-20% higher sales in year 1
-10% increase in output after year 1; 15% after year 2
-2x tenure
So – remember that original graph? With the grey and the blue and the difference was the gain in ELTV. The difference between the two there show a pretty big difference. Take a second, and think about what dollar amount you’d guess is represented by that blue area.
Using incredibly conservative estimates, we came to a $1.3million dollar difference over 3 years with JUST ONE HEADCOUNT
2.5x difference in our two scenarios
Let’s play out a few more…
Even if we were wrong on our assumptions – one was 10 or 15% instead of 20%...it wouldn’t quite matter. There’s still a HUGE return over time.
So – being a little better at people practices can mean the difference of 1.3m per sales person. With a 20 person sales team? You’d probably want to get a get a pretty big budget, eh?
Now we’ll go through two more scenarios –
One where we mis-hire a sales person
And one where we look at how to do this for an engineer instead of a sales person
So now, let’s take a look at the same sales person, but the we mis-hired the backfill and had to let them go a month later, and restart the search.
What does it cost when we mis-hire?
This model shows 3.5x
In that last example we made the assumption that the difference between a great salesperson and an okay one is about 20%
What about software engineers?
Let’s change our Y-axis to lines of code…
20% can make the difference between a great salesperson and an okay one
In engineering, they talk a lot about how big a difference a great engineer is – some studies have even floated out 10x. I don’t know if that’s true, and I don’t necessarily want to make that argument. Let’s look at what happens if a great hire is just a twice as good
4x Eltv over the course of three years
If they’re 3x as good, it’s a 6.2 ELTV increase over the course of 3 years.
Put another way, over three years, one engineer can have the same impact as 6 engineers.
That’s a tremendous impact we can have on the business. It impacts how many leads you bring it, how quickly you ship product, how supported your customers feel, etc.
6x is one thing. It’s sort of academic, theory based, but maybe not that actionable.
What’s next?
Making the case to your executive team comes next. Because, for an People practice you need either budget or buy-in to be successful
Typically, the conversations we hear about with the exec team go like this…
Don’t have enough people, we’re swamped, need to hire more…
[etc.]
When I first started leading the recruiting team, everyone was swamped. It felt frantic, and unsustainable. I kept just relaying that fact to our VP, and saying that we “needed help,” but didn’t get far. The second time, I aimed her with some facts on how long we’d be pushing out key hires without support. The answer came a lot faster that time.
First let’s simplify the equation a little – you’ll want to start by walking everyone through the curve, and what these points mean.
We can break the employee lifecycle into four distinct moments Start date
Fully contributing member
Decision to leave
Last day
Now, let’s think about these less as moments as more like variables. Most initiatives will impact just one of these points, but any improvement we make to this curve, at any of these points, will change the ROI
Now, let’s understand the variables in this equation. [talk through this]
My suggestions, don’t try to move all at one. Pick one (or two).
And articulate a theory of how you’re going to impact ELTV. Focus on the magnitude of that impact, rather than the discrete impact itself.
At Greenhouse my scenario was hiring key roles across the organization. With People practices, it’s about the impact on the ELTV curve. That green area was what I was looking to create, and what I would point to when modeling out my team.
Define the problem. Illustrate the painpoint you’re going to solve. Coming just with the solution, means they don’t have the context to understand how brilliant your solution is. In order for an executive to wrap their head around why CHANGE is needed, they had to feel the pain.
Use data. Internal data -> stats about your current situation in your company.
External data -> Lots of studies that demonstrate the ELTV impact. Don’t try to convince anyone of anything, SHOW them. It’s hard to argue against data.
Business impact – don’t worry about calculating. This is where the comparison models we walked through will be handy.
Challenges is the part people don’t like to share. It’s probably not your first instinct to come in with all of the holes of your proposal. Let me tell you why you should do it anyway.
When you hand someone a business proposal, they will look for the obstacles and things that go wrong. By sharing them up front, you have the opportunity to own the story, and get in front of the conversation. This process lends you and your proposal a lot of credibility.
Plus, you’re proposing something that’s great for the business. And by articulating these problems, you’re bringing people on board to help solve them with you.
INTERACTIVE EXERCISE
Let’s try this together…
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INTERACTIVE EXERCISE
Let’s try this together…
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INTERACTIVE EXERCISE
Let’s try this together…
What would we list as the “investment required” and the “business impact”
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INTERACTIVE EXERCISE
Let’s try this together…
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That script walked us through the entire proposal template
Follow that and you’ll be speaking their language
Let’s recap just a few of the big points from today