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Oliver Terry - HSMAI Europe
- 1. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.comwww.strglobal.com HSMAI – Europe Revenue Conference Global Hotel Performance Trends Oliver Terry Director of Data Services London - Jumeirah Carlton Tower 24th February 2015
- 2. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com Agenda • Global Overview • European Trends • UK & London Trends • Europe Pipeline • Europe Forecast
- 3. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com Our Coverage 50,000 Hotels & 6.75 Million Hotel Rooms
- 4. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com Our Coverage Hotels & Hotel Rooms +8.3K +1.1M +6.4K +1.2M +610 +110K +840 +132K +33K +3.9M +585 +150K Hotels Rooms
- 5. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com Global & Europe: International Tourists Arrivals # of international tourist arrivals worldwide and into Europe, in millions 563 Europe 2013 Global 1,087 605 Europe 2015 f Global 1,187 531 Europe 2012 Global 1,035 583 Europe 2014 Global 1,132
- 6. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.comSTR Global 2014 www.strglobal.com RevPAR % Change Map December 2014 YTD, Constant Currency USD, Europe in EUR +8.2% +5.0% € +3.7% +0.5% +4.8%+18.3% +14.6% +2.6%
- 7. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com Spotlight Europe – What’s Driving European RevPAR? Market performance RevPAR, December 2014 YTD, CC€ Occupancy -3.0% Eastern EuropeNorthern Europe ADR & Occupancy +7.7% Occupancy +2.6% Western EuropeSouthern Europe ADR & Occupancy +7.4%
- 8. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com RevPAR: 3 of 4 Back to Peak 12MMA ADR; Total 2007 – Total 2014 (indexed to 2007) 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0 1,1 1,2 20142013201220112010200920082007 Europe Eastern Europe Northern Europe Southern Europe Western Europe
- 9. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com Europe Room Supply/Demand % Change 12 months moving average Jan 2006 to December 2014 -8 % -6 % -4 % -2 % 0 % 2 % 4 % 6 % 8 % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hundreder Supply % Chg Demand % Chg
- 10. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com Europe: 17 consecutive growth months RevPAR Percent Change, January 2001 – December 2014, in EUR -30 % -20 % -10 % 0 % 10 % 20 % 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Hundreder 17 months of growth 9/11 SARS Global Financial crisis
- 11. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com RevPAR %Chg YE 2014 % Chg, Demand and RevPAR, Lux & UpperUp, in Local Currency -15 % -10 % -5 % 0 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 % 30 % 35 % Athens Glasgow Madrid Brighton Lisbon Vienna Manchester Amsterdam Brussels Dublin Edinburgh Belfast Rome Berlin London Helsinki Paris Monaco Warsaw Moscow Hundreder Demand RevPAR (LC)
- 12. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com European Markets Occ, ADR 0 € 50 € 100 € 150 € 200 € 250 € 300 € 40 % 45 % 50 % 55 % 60 % 65 % 70 % 75 % 80 % 85 % 90 % Occupancy ADR December 2014 YTD, in Euro Southern & Eastern Europe Western & Northern Europe
- 13. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com European Markets Occ, ADR % Chg December 2014 YTD, in local currency -15 % -10 % -5 % 0 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 % Occupancy ADR Southern & Eastern Europe Western & Northern Europe
- 14. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com Europe Classes Occ and ADR €0 €50 €100 €150 €200 €250 €300 0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale & Economy Occ 13 Occ 14 ADR 13 ADR 14 +3.9 +2.8 +1.5 +8.9 +4.1 +1.2 +2.8+0.7 +3.3+1.8 2013 vs. 2014, Percent % Change, in European Euro
- 15. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.comwww.strglobal.com UK & London 2014 Trends “Regional UK steals the headlines with an outstanding year”
- 16. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com UK Key Markets YE 2014, RevPAR %, £ 3.3% London 7.2% Aberdeen 4.8% Belfast 10.3% Manchester 14.5% Cardiff 6.4% Edinburgh 11.1% Birmingham 23.0% Glasgow 12.6% Leeds 12.7% Plymouth 8.0% Total UK 10.5% Regional UK 3.3% London
- 17. 2015 STR Global www.strglobal.com -40 % -20 % 0 % 20 % 40 % 2011 2012 2013 2014 London Group Transient Group is supporting the growth in Regional UK Transient & Group RevPAR % Change, £ -10 % 0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 2011 2012 2013 2014 Regional UK Group Transient
- 18. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com Regional UK experienced a more prolonged decline before recovery July 2008 Sep 2009 Sep 2010 Aug 2012 Dec 2014 £100 £105 £110 £115 £120 £125 £130 £135 £140 £145 78 % 79 % 80 % 81 % 82 % 83 % 84 % January 2007 – December 2014, 12 Month Moving Average, Occ & ADR Sep 2008 Jun 2010 Mar 2012 Dec 2012 Dec 2014 £58 £59 £60 £61 £62 £63 £64 £65 64 % 66 % 68 % 70 % 72 % 74 % 76 % London Regional UK Growth Recession Recovery May 2014
- 19. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com UK Cities Occ, ADR & RevPAR £0 £20 £40 £60 £80 £100 £120 £140 £160 40 % 45 % 50 % 55 % 60 % 65 % 70 % 75 % 80 % 85 % 90 % ADR RevPAR Occupancy YE 2014, KPI, £
- 20. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com UK Key Cities Occ, ADR % Chg YE 2014, £ -5 % 0 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 20 % Occupancy ADR
- 21. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com December 2014, Room Count Share London Regional UK 3 % 15 % 19 % 22 % 12 % 29 % London vs. Regional UK 11 % 18 % 23 %12 % 13 % 23 %
- 22. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com Midscale & Economy lead the growth, ADR growth returns to London £0 £50 £100 £150 £200 £250 £300 £350 40 % 45 % 50 % 55 % 60 % 65 % 70 % 75 % 80 % 85 % 90 % Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale & Economy Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale & Economy Occ 13 Occ 14 ADR 13 ADR 14 RevPAR %Chg. YE 2013 & 2014, £ London Regional UK +2.3% +0.9% +3.5% +6.3% +8.6% +6.6% +7.2% +9.7% +10.7% +13.7%
- 23. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.comwww.strglobal.com London 2014 “A good year with a soft middle!”
- 24. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com 83.0% 2014 82.5% 2013 80.7% 2012 London - Occupancy Consistently Growing Occupancy 2012 - 2014
- 25. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com London – Occupancy Trends Monthly Occupancy, Jan -Dec 2014 60 % 65 % 70 % 75 % 80 % 85 % 90 % 95 % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 2013 2014
- 26. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com GBP 141 2014 GBP 137 2013 GBP 140 2012 London – 2014 Above Olympic ADR totals ADR 2012 - 2014
- 27. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com London – ADR Trends Monthly ADR, Jan -Dec 2012, 2013, 2014 £100 £110 £120 £130 £140 £150 £160 £170 £180 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 2013 2014
- 28. 2015 STR Global www.strglobal.com Outer London Submarkets Dominating RevPAR Growth RevPAR growth, 2014 over 2013, GBP Docklands/ Greenwich Earls Court/ Kensington/ Chelsea Knightsbridge/ Pimlico/Victoria London West End North Central London Outer London East Outer London North Outer London South Outer London West Paddington/ Bayswater/ Notting Hill South Central London The City/ Shoreditch 0 % 2 % 4 % 6 % 8 % 10 % 12 % 14 % 16 %
- 29. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.comwww.strglobal.com Pipeline “UK leads Europe in supply growth!”
- 30. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com Europe – Pipeline, Top 10 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 United Kingdom Russia Germany Turkey France Poland Italy Netherlands Spain Switzerland Tusener Existing Pipeline January 2015 Report, Pipeline by Room Count
- 31. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com United Kingdom Pipeline January 2015 Pipeline Report, Under Contract, Room Count 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 London Northwest England Southeast England Scotland Southwest England West Midlands Yorkshire & Humberside Northeast England East England East Midlands Wales Northern Ireland Tusener Existing Pipeline
- 32. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com United Kingdom Pipeline by Chain Scale January 2015 Report, Pipeline by Room Count 1 % 7 % 14 % 17 % 3 % 18 % 40 % Luxury Chains Upper Upscale Chains Upscale Chains Upper Midscale Chains Midscale Chains Economy Chains Unaffiliated
- 33. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com Accumulated room count growth by class; YE 2004 – December 2014 2.9% CAGR 2.3% CAGR 1.2% CAGR 1.1% CAGR 1.2% CAGR 1.6% CAGR 0 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 % 30 % Economy Class (120K) Upper Midscale Class (90K) Upscale Class (79K) Upper Upscale Class (59K) Midscale Class (48K) Luxury Class (12K) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Room Count Growth by Class Regional UK
- 34. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com +9.7% +9.6% +12.8% +5.0% +5.7% +4.0% 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500 5 000 Economy Class Upscale Class Upper Midscale Class Upper Upscale Class Midscale Class Luxury Class London Pipeline by Class – Economy also leads the way in rooms January 2015 Pipeline Report, Pipeline Under Contract
- 35. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.comwww.strglobal.com Europe Forecast “Southern Europe continues to lead the way”
- 36. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com Market Forecast - Europe RevPAR growth 2015, November 2014 edition
- 37. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com Market Forecast - Europe Occupancy & ADR % Change 2015, November 2014 edition AMS ATH BAR BER BRU BUD COL DBL DUS FRA HAM MAD MIL MOS MUC PAR PRA ROM STU VIE WAR ZURLON -8 % -6 % -4 % -2 % 0 % 2 % 4 % 6 % 8 % -4,0% -3,0% -2,0% -1,0% 0,0% 1,0% 2,0% 3,0% 4,0% 5,0% 6,0% ADR%Change Occupancy % Change
- 38. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com Market Forecast - UK RevPAR growth 2015, November 2014 edition
- 39. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com Market Forecast - UK Occupancy & ADR % Change 2015, November 2014 edition BIR EDI GAT GLA HEALEE MAN LON LON LC LON UUC LON UC LON UMC LON MEC RUK RUK UUC RUK UMC RUK MEC -8 % -6 % -4 % -2 % 0 % 2 % 4 % 6 % 8 % -2,5% -2,0% -1,5% -1,0% -0,5% 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% ADR%Change Occupancy % Change
- 40. STR Global 2015 www.strglobal.com STR Global www.strglobal.com You can follow us on LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook STR Global, Ltd is the exclusive owner of all rights in this presentation and its content. Reproduction of all or a portion of this presentation for any purpose without prior approval of STR Global is strictly prohibited. This presentation is based on information compiled by STR Global Ltd. No strategic or marketing recommendations or advice are intended or implied. Thank you and any questions? Oliver Terry +44 (0)207 922 1930