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Lecture 8: Spatial Planning for Disaster Risk Reduction

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Lecture 8: Spatial Planning for Disaster Risk Reduction
Dr. Estuning Tyas Wulan Mei (UGM)
2019 ProSPER.Net Young Researchers' School
6 March 2019

Publié dans : Environnement
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Lecture 8: Spatial Planning for Disaster Risk Reduction

  1. 1. Spatial Planning for Disaster Risk Reduction Dr. Estuning Tyas Wulan Mei Faculty of Géography, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia estu.mei@gmail.com / estu.mei@ugm.ac.id
  2. 2. • Estuning Tyas Wulan Mei • Lecturer at the Faculty of Geography, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia • 2013 – PhD Géographie, Université Paris 1 Panthéon – Sorbonne (Dir. : Pr. Franck Lavigne) • Sujet : Gestion des évacuations lors des crises volcaniques. Etude de cas du volcan Merapi, Java, Indonésie • 2008 – Master Geo-Information for Spatial Planning and Risk Management, Double Degree M.Sc Programme between Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia and University of Twente, the Netherlands • 2006 – Undergraduate/Bachelor, Regional Development Program Study, Faculty of Geography, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Indonesia https://scholar.google.ca/citations?user=ZvZdZIQAAAAJ&hl=en https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=55018646400 https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3814-9014
  3. 3. Planning or plan? Planning • Process of thinking and organizing the activities to achieve a goal. • Planning refers to the process of deciding what to do and how to do it Plan • Results or products of a certain planning activity. Planner(s) Planners do not make decisions themselves; rather, they support decision-makers (managers, public officials, citizens) by coordinating information and activities. Their role is to create a logical, systematic decision-making process that results in the best action
  4. 4. Planning • Peter Hall (1992): • ….'is concerned with deliberately achieving some objectives, and it proceeds by assembling actions into some orderly sequence’. • Ernest R. Alexander (1986): • “Planning is the deliberate social or organizational activity of developing an optimal strategy of future action to achieve a desired set of goals, for solving novel problems in complex contexts, and attended by the power and intention to commit recourses and to act as necessary to implement the chosen strategy”
  5. 5. Planning • Diana Conyers and Peter Hills (1984): “…is a continues process which involves decisions, or choices, about alternative ways of using available resources, with the aims of achieving particular goals at some time in the future”. • 4 main elements of planning: • Decisions or choices • Resource allocations • Goal(s) achievement • For the future
  6. 6. Aspects of Planning Planning: Role and place in public decision making Planning steps Spatial levels Planning spheres Operational fields Administration Time horizons Styles of planning Centrally-planned economies Market-based economies Mixed economies Project planning Sectoral planning Macro-economic planning Integrated area planning Short-term planning Medium-term planning Long-term planning Conception Preparation Realization Evaluation 1. Blueprint planning 2. Process planning 3. Comprehensive planning 4. Jointed Vs. Disjointed Incrementalism 5. Functional planning 6. Normative planning
  7. 7. Planning Principles • Good planning requires a methodical process that clearly defines the steps that lead to optimal solutions. (Preston, 2012) Plan- ning Compre- hensive Efficient Inclusive Inform- ative Inte- grated Logical Trans- parent all significant options and impacts are considered the process should not waste time or money people affected by the plan have opportunities to be involved individual, short-term decisions should support strategic, long-term goals results are understood by stakeholders (people affected by a decision) each step leads to the next everybody involved understands how the process operates
  8. 8. Spatial Planning • A strategic direction for the development of a given geographic area, states the policies, priorities, programmes and land allocations that will implement the strategic direction and influences the distribution of people and activities in spaces of various scales. • Spatial planning systems refer to the methods and approaches used by the public and private sector to influence the distribution of people and activities in spaces of various scales. • Spatial plans may be developed for urban planning, regional planning, environmental planning, landscape planning, national spatial plans, or spatial planning at the Union level. (noted: some countries used the term urban planning, regional planning, land use planning).
  9. 9. Spatial Structure Urban System Transportation System Energy System Telecommunica tions System Water Resources System the arrangement of public and private space in cities and the degree of connectivity and accessibility
  10. 10. Structure
  11. 11. Spatial Pattern Protected Area • area that provides protection for subordinate areas : protected forests, peatlands, water catchments • local protection area : borders of beaches & rivers, around lakes / reservoirs, urban green open spaces • conservation areas: nature reserves, nature conservation, hunting parks, coastal conservation and small islands • geological protected area : geological nature reserve, groundwater protection • other protected areas : biosphere reserves, ramsar, cultural heritage, germplasm, animal refuge, mangroves Cultivated Area • production forest allocation area; • forest reserve area; • agricultural allocation area; • fisheries allocation area; • mining allocation area; • industrial allocation area; • tourism allocation area; • residential area; and / or • other allocation areas.
  12. 12. Disaster and Spatial Planning Picture: PU Picture: LePost
  13. 13. Disasters are different
  14. 14. Eachdisasterisunique http://studioprotector.org/ (Tilling, 2008) Uncertainty
  15. 15. However,whenthereisaction,casualties and/ordamagesmightbereduced DISASTER « Disaster Management » Disaster risk management Crisis management Post-crisis management Pre Syn Post SPACE TIME Response Reconstructi on Rehabilitatio n Mitigation Preparednes s
  16. 16. Concept of DRR NATURALEVENT No harm to humans HAZARD(H) The probability of occurrence of certain natural disaster VULNERABILITY(V) The degree of loss for each element in the event of disaster RISIKO(R) Potential losses caused by disaster Before we discuss about the relation between Disaster management and Spatial Planning…. 1 (UNDRO, 1992) Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability Capacity
  17. 17. Planning CYCLE Disaster Planning= cycle Disaster = cycle Planning = cycle
  19. 19. SchemeofSpatialPlanDocumentStages
  20. 20. Sumber: Schramm, et al.(1991)
  21. 21. Spatial Plan & Disaster Management • Law No. 26 of 2007 The physical condition of the NKRI area is vulnerable to disasters, therefore disaster mitigation-based spatial planning is needed • Law No. 26 of 2007 Disaster mitigation is a series of efforts to reduce disaster risk, both through physical development (structural mitigation) and awareness and capacity building in the face of disaster threats
  22. 22. Spatial planning = disaster risk reduction < Risk Capacity (ies)> Hazard (s) < Vulnerability (ies)<
  23. 23. Indonesian Spatial Planning Law • No. 26 of 2007 • No. 1 of 2018 Ministrial Regulation • Public Work Ministrial Regulation No. 21 of 2007 • Disaster prone areas of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes Ministrial Regulation • PU No 22 2007 • Disaster prone area of landslide Plan UseControl Including the HAZARD elements (KRB) with the aim of reducing RISK
  24. 24. Unfortunately…. • Indonesia Sumber: Small, et al., 2001 : volcano
  25. 25. Indonésie 5.120 km (3.181 mi) from East to West 1,760 km (1,094 mi) from North to South Area: 1,916,862 km2 (741,052 mil2). Coastal area: 54,716 km (33,999 mil) 16,056 islands - / + 261 890 900 inhabitants Population growth: 1.4% Density of population: 9 - 15,624 inhabitants / km2
  26. 26. Several time zones
  27. 27. Geomorphology Volcanic Structural Denudational Karstic Glacial Aeolin Fluvial Coastal
  28. 28. Océan Indien Plaque Indo-australienne
  29. 29. Volcanic risk  120 active volcanoes including:  1 in high surveillance (level 4)  4 to level 3  15 at level 2 https://magma.vsi.esdm.go.id
  30. 30. Volcanic risk
  31. 31. Volcanoes in Indonesia Subduction phenomena
  32. 32. Earthquake risk
  33. 33. Earthquake risk
  34. 34. Faults and earthquakes
  35. 35. Tsunami risk
  36. 36. 1) Plan of space • HAZARD kawasan rawan bencana • Too many bureau/institutions/agencies  different methods, different maps • BNPB, • Kemen PU, • Kemen ESDM, • Bakosurtanal • Universities • NGOs • Etc.
  37. 37. BNPB Event map, danger: Floods, tsunamis, earthquakes, cyclones, forest fires, etc. 74 Kabupaten/Kota belum punya BPBD (Data Maret 2015 – Saat Rakornas BNPB) 52 kabupaten dan 22 kota
  38. 38. Ministry of Public Works Disaster Information Map: Hurricanes, floods, tidal waves, earthquakes, eruptions, droughts, conflicts, landslides
  39. 39. Geological Agency Map of Geological Disaster Areas: Volcanoes, Earthquakes and Tsunamis, Movement of land.
  40. 40. Geospatial Information Agency Disaster Index Map: Floods, earthquakes, eruptions
  41. 41. Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency Potential maps and / or events: floods, tsunamis, earthquakes, cyclones, forest fires, etc.
  42. 42. How about the spatial planning maker? • Do they have any hazard map(s)? • How they may get the maps? 1. ‘Primary’ data  how they create the maps? • Preliminary report? • Data and analysis report? • Final report? 2. Secondary data  • Which map(s) they use?
  43. 43. Preliminary Report Data and Analysis Report Final Report Preliminary Preliminary Preliminary Method and Work Plan General Area Description Potential, Problem, and Area Development Profile Area Preview Spatial Plan Evaluation Strategic and Policy Schedule Implementation Policy Development and Sectoral Spatial Structure Planning Schedule Mobilization Analysis Pattern Structure Planning Reporting Determining Strategic Area Referrals space utilization Provision of spatial Control Right, Duty, and community involvement Closing Spatial Planning Report Content
  44. 44. 1) Plan of space • HAZARD kawasan rawan bencana • Sync and valid • Reduce the uncertainty of spatial problem • Reduce the misinterpretation of KRB • KRB classes are different, but similar • Volcanoes  only 51 volcanoes having “published” KRB map • Another classes (PVMBG): • Type A volcano: minimum one recorded eruption since 1600 • Type B volcano: no eruption recorded since 1600 • Type C volcano: no information Hazard level Ministry of Public Work Volcanological Agency High Tipe C KRB III Medium Tipe B KRB II Low Tipe A KRB I
  45. 45. Plan of space • One map policy  to be used by all institutions • Horizontal and vertical coordination (national, regional, local). • Hazard map is primordial, but it has to be valid and sycn. • Hazard map must be used as a basis to analyze every aspects in spatial planning process (the latest law in spatial planning). Consideration of aspects of threats (disaster-prone areas) in spatial planning is very important to determine spatial planning and disaster mitigation devices.
  46. 46. 2) Use of space • The problem of “land/spatial use” is closely related to the “spatial plan/planning”. • Single basic reference reduce misinterpretation  reduce problem on land/spatial use
  47. 47. 2) Use of space • Example: Merapi Volcano • Volcanic Hazard Map • Clearly states that: Highest Hazard Zone or KRB III (Legend) is not allowed to be used as settlement. “….Oleh karena tingkat kerawanan yang tinggi, kawasan (KRB III) ini tidak diperkenankan untuk hunian tetap…” “….Due to its high vulnerability, permanent settlement in Hazard Zone III is not allowed….” • PerDa Sleman No 12 2012 RTRW “Kawasan rawan bencana Merapi III adalah kawasan yang letaknya dekat dengan sumber bahaya yang sering terlanda awanpanas, aliran lava, guguran batu, lontaran batu (pijar) dan hujan abu lebat. Oleh karena tingkat kerawanan yang tinggi, kawasan ini tidak diperkenankan untuk hunian tetap.” "Merapi III disaster-prone areas are areas that are located near sources of danger that are often hit by pyroclastic flows, lava, rock avalanches, bombs, lapilis and heavy ash rain. Due to its high level of vulnerability, this area is not permitted for permanent occupancy. "
  48. 48. Volcanic geomorphology (BPPTK, 2006) Photo: NatGeo
  49. 49. Hazard Map Merapi 2006
  50. 50. Hazard Map Merapi 2010
  51. 51. • Peraturan ini sepertinya tidak mudah ditegakkan Different scale  difficulty of the law application
  52. 52. Use of space • The use of disaster-prone areas must be carried out together with measures to reduce the level of vulnerability of the population. To reduce risk, if a threat already exists, it is necessary to reduce vulnerability and increase capacity
  53. 53. 3) Control of space use • Control of potential disaster space use is carried out by looking at the consistency between the use of space and the regional spatial plan • Some problems: • Conflict of interest • i.e. Highest hazard zone  • Settlement or non-settlement • Evacuation routes and zones vs. Sand mining routes • Clearly stated in the Regional Law (Perda Sleman No. 12 year 2012 act 73) • Activities that have the potential to damage supporting infrastructure and facilities on the disaster evacuation routes and spaces are not permitted • Different points of view • Philosophie of Living in Harmony  with nature or with disaster?
  54. 54. Reluctant to relocate: Engagement with the land of birth There is no evidence of pyroclastic flows (only ash rains) (Suroto - Kalitengah Lor, Desa Glagaharjo, Kecamatan Cangkringan) (Harian Jogja, 2 September 2013, ZONA BAHAYA MERAPI Pilih Bertahan, 1.000 Warga KRB III Minta Fasilitas ) Kawasan Ra di-Bantu KRB = Kawasan Rawan Bencana (Hazard Zone) Local population change this term into Kawasan Ra di-Bantu (Not assisten/helped area)
  55. 55. Sumber: KRJogja, Nov 2013 Local newspaper KR (10/11/2013) stated that in 2013, 41 billions IDR were given to maintain the evacuation routes, while in 2014, 30 billions IDR were also given for the same reason in Klaten Regency.
  56. 56. PLAN OF SPACE USE OF SPACE CONTROL OF SPACE USE Identification of Hazards H  V  C ↑ Increasing Capacity Minimizing Vulnerability R  Disaster risk Disaster aspects, be they hazards, vulnerabilities, capacities or risks, have their respective roles that are interrelated in disaster-based spatial planning.
  57. 57. What did we learn from the past experiences?
  58. 58. Earthquake, Lombok
  59. 59. 29 juillet 6,4 SR 5 août 6,9 SR 9 août 5,9 SR 9 août 6,0 SR (11.10) 9 août 7,0 SR (21.56) 25 août 5,5 SR > 585 secousses signalées A series of earthquake in Lombok • > 550 personnes décédées • > 7.000 personnes blessées • > 400.000 personnes déplacées • > 70.000 bâtiments détruits
  60. 60. Spatial plan: tourism sector • The tourism sector accounts for 60% of the district's total initial revenue (PAD) à West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) (+/- 275.000 euros) Photo: Tempo (2018) Masse evacuation in a port of an island of Lombok (Gili Trawangan)  Relief is not well organized  Lack of transportation  The panic of tourists (summer vacation period)  Hundreds of mountaineers were trapped in the caldera of Rinjani volcano  Those who stay are mostly residents and expatriates  Tourism Crisis Center established by the Indonesian Government
  61. 61. • Sulawesi • Kasih peta Indonesia, lalu zoom ke Sulawesi
  62. 62. Max Carl Wilhelm Weber (zoologist) Siboga expedition
  63. 63. Diversity of Indonesian fauna
  64. 64. Diversity of indonesian plants
  65. 65. Earthquake, tsunami and liquifaction in Sulawesi Source: Natawidjaja & Daryono (2015) 19 tsunami have been recorded since 1900
  66. 66. Central Sulawesi (Sopaheluwakan et al , 1995)
  67. 67. City of Palu • The capital of Central Sulawesi Province. • > 342,000 inhabitants • The Sultanate of Gowa (XIII - XVII centuries), then the Kingdom of Palu (XVII - XIX centuries) • The city began to develop after the Second World War • More and more immigration from Java (transmigration in the years 1970-1980) Le pont jaune (symbole de la ville)
  68. 68. Earthquake on 28 september 2019 Earthquake Tsunami Liquifaction Bilan: • > 2.100 dead people • > 4,500 people injured • > 250,000 displaced people • > 60,000 buildings destroyed Le week-end d’un grand événement régional: Festival Pesona Palu Nomoni Source: BNPB (2018)
  69. 69. Séisme Source: BNPB
  70. 70. Source: ZonaSultra (2018) Séisme Tsunami Complexe de résidence (Balaroa) construit dans les années 1980 (le premier complexe de résidence financé par l’Etat)
  71. 71. Tsunamidanslecentreville Source: BNPB
  72. 72. Tsunami vu du ciel Source: BNPB
  73. 73. Liquifaction Source: BNPB
  74. 74. Toponymy - local wisdom for DRR • The name of the city (Palu) carries a definition of the land raised - Topalu'e (Kaili language) • Bombatalu (three destructive ocean waves) • Linu (the earthquake) • Nalodo (buried under the mud) that describes the liquefaction event Balaroa and Petobo events leave us important notes: methods of disaster mitigation and regional space management. Balaroa avant et après le tsunami
  75. 75. • Kembali lagi ke Java
  76. 76. • Large eruptions of the years 416 or 535 and 1883 (> 36,000 deaths). • The archipelago is part of the Ujung Kulon National Park (UNESCO World Heritage Site) Krakatau (and Anak Krakatau) Volcano(es) Foto: tempo (2018)
  77. 77. Krakatau: volcanic eruption & tsunami
  78. 78. Foto: BNPB(2018)
  79. 79. Événement du tsunami Source: BNPB(2018) End of year; School vacation; in a tourist area that attract a lot of local tourists from big cities around (Jakarta, Bandung, etc.)
  80. 80. Source: BNPB
  81. 81. • Ash Falls • Pyroclastic Flows and Surges • Debris Avalanches • Lava Flows • Lahars • Geothermal Eruptions
  82. 82. Volcanic hazard map for Mount Taranaki Traditional Knowledge Monitoring of Volcanic Hazards Warning Systems for Volcanic Hazards
  83. 83. Land use zoning map for areas around Mount Usu (adapted from Nakao, 2005).
  84. 84. Volcanic hazard map of the Okataina Volcanic Centre (in Nairn, 2002 and adapted from Scott & Nairn, 1998).
  85. 85. Specific options that could be applied by land use planners within plans and policy statements include: • Avoiding new development in high volcanic risk areas, especially in localities that are not already developed. This concept is reflected in the Mt. Usu case study, where development in the most destructive volcanic hazard areas has been prohibited. Additionally certain types of development (e.g., essential or hazardous facilities and covered assemblies) have been prohibited in lahar and pyroclastic flow zones in Pierce County; • Restricting development or permitting only low density development in already developed hazardous areas to minimise the number of people residing in volcanic hazard areas. Pierce County’s standards reflect this concept, whereby development is required to be low-density in certain lahar hazard areas; • Using volcanic hazard-specific criteria for assessing consents in volcanic hazard areas. For example, a local authority may require that for a consent to be granted in a rural area subject to volcanic hazards, the water supply must be able to be covered in the event of ash fall. • Siting and where necessary relocating key facilities and critical infrastructure out of hazardous areas; • Incorporating specific urban design measures to mitigate volcanic impacts, for example, the effects of ash falls, as seen in the urban design example from Kagoshima; • Taking proactive steps to ascertain how to dispose of volcanic debris after an eruption (Johnston et al., 2009); and • Planning for other land use recovery aspects. In a general sense this requires considering what the effects of an eruption might be, how the use of land could be improved after an event, and what steps might be taken before an event to ensure such improvements can be made (Becker et al., 2006).
  86. 86. Disaster aspects, be they hazards, vulnerabilities, capacities or risks, have their respective roles that are interrelated in disaster-based spatial planning (plan of space, use of space, control of space use) Even though Indonesia has continuously experienced different natural disasters, each event brings a lesson learned  used to improve risk and crisis management in Indonesia or around the world Conclusion
  87. 87. Thank you for your attention…