Contenu connexe Similaire à ABCs to Zs of TaxCharityTM-22feb14 (11) ABCs to Zs of TaxCharityTM-22feb141. “
ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM–22 February 2014
"there is risk in what you do not or cannot know." Thomas Tooke, 1844
"for the value of money is also perishable." Jean-Baptiste Say , 1803
Risk Price analysis of balance sheets allows us to discern a most useful partition from all the equities in
any market. These are “likeables” because investors have consistently shown they prefer them and price
them up. So there is much to like. As a group 2 of 3 “likeables” equities we identify by Risk Price tend
to gain in stock price for long periods. We understand why by proven theory1. We proven also in open
display in real time markets because we can. No one else can, so they do not. Because we can, we do.
As open handed display of our methods in January 2012 we released the ABC’s portfolio comprised of
just the of newly identified equities on TSX and NYSE “likeables” market partition. They are revealed
by their rise above Risk Price, our metric that investors must know to defend their capital.
Those ABCs portfolios made the case even as these two markets diverged. There were 16 ABCs
equities in the TSX sample for an aggregate $41.972 invested and 12 ABCs in the NYSE sample
portfolio for an aggregate $77,436 invested at outset. Through 2012 in both ABC’s, 5 were dropped
due to negative change in their Risk Price metrics, finishing 2012 with the TSX sample up 22.64% and
the NYSE sample up 38.97%.
These substantively different markets moved in different directions. The TSX declined early in 2012
and then regained ending up 6.02% and the NYSE had started hot and then cooled to obtain a 8.35%
gain in the year. Roughly a four-fold gain was made in both ABC portfolios over their markets. The
hedge funds HFRI2 recorded only 6.16% on the NYSE prior to their taking fees as supposed earned
despite their underperformance in 2012, as in all years. They are just playing dice, with your money.
Our ABCs sample portfolios we have continued through 2013 as open display. TSX first declined in
2013 then gained since the end of July. The TSX- ABCs 2 year gain is now total 56.21% through 2013
adding 10.68%. The NYSE - ABCs portfolio 2 year gain totals 50.51%, in 2013 adding 31.51%. Idle
cash value is eroded by inflation. Our ‘likeables’ that tend to hold their value and gain are better than
cash. We like Capital Safety and Liquidity as has consistently shown and proven works for high capital
appreciation, less risk more gain. Sounds strange truth to power3 there is no science in conventional
fund portfolio methods. Their artifice takes fees for their playing dice, with your money.
The TaxCharityTM portfolios we posted January 2013 took-up the challenge for the small investor to
invest new cash savings under the limits of annual Tax shelter provisions. Our followers have done
well. Our BookBuilderTM builds your wealth for your childrens’ education, or your small savings.
August 2013 we issued new 2013 TaxCharityTM and BookBuilderTM portfolios to make use of new tax
sheltered savings. As we seek accredited investors to extend our achievement with our new theory of
the firm we charitably offer some of our “Perpetual Bond” list of “likeables” proprietary information to
help small investors. Because we can we do. “Likeables” portfolios perform.
There was unreasonable volatility in late January and early February tripping many stop-loss settings
intended to protect your capital and then rebounded. Market mavens often are irrational, for no reason.
Page 1 of 8
February 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
2. “
ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM–22 February 2014
Conventional investment industry claims “expertise” but have just poor untestable models, conjectures
claimed as theory. They just cull small investors’ wallets to their unproven use. All the fun, fees and
profit is theirs, but next to nothing for you4 are ever left, just their tease, for fees, and no thanks.
Their baseless swing from no-ooo to buy-eee wrecked havouc on the new A-Z portfolio on TSX.
StopLoss intended to protect your capital did their job but most all rebounded to new high, gaining 3%
in days. We robustly rebuild from baseless volatility setbacks like these.
ABCs for TSX Firms portfolio from 31 December
2011
ARC Resources
Anvil Mining (Sold on Takeover 21Feb12)
Brookfield Asset Management
Bombardier (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12)
BCE Inc (Sold on N* decline 12jun13)
Cogeco Cable
CCL Industries
Canfor Corp
Centerra Gold (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12)
Cenovus Energy (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12)
Canadian Western Bank (Sold on N* decline 30Nov12)
Dollarama Inc
Emera Inc (Sold on N* decline 22oct12)
Enbridge Inc (Sold on $topLoss 04dec13)
Fortis Inc (Sold on N* decline 30un13)
Finning International (Sold on N* decline 30jun13)
Buy-ins 01Jan13
Gildan Activewear Inc.
Linamar Corporation
Sun Life Financial Inc.
Buy-ins 15Jun2013
CGI Group
Buy-ins 31Jul2013
Calfrac Well Services Ltd.
MTY Food Group Inc
Buy-ins 22Oct2013
Hudsons Bay Company.
Celestica Inc.
Market
Price
Symbol
Stop/Loss
SF
(Risk Price)
29.98 ARX.TO
AVM.TO
44.52 BAM-A.TO
BBD-B.TO
BCE.TO
53.48 CCA.TO
53.48 CCL-A.TO
29.75 CFP.TO
CG.TO
CVE.TO
CWB.TO
82.75 DOL.TO
EMA.TO
ENB.TO
FTS.TO
FTT.TO
$28
$27
$33
$4
$36
$39
$37
$13
$19
$35
$30
$55
$32
$49
$38
$24
$39
$4
$44
$47
$71
$26
$3
$28
$35
$75
$29
$45
$29
$25
55.32 GIL
45.65 LNR
39.86 SLF
$40
$19
$28
$53
$39
$35
36.50 GIB.A
$33
$31
33.50 CFW
31.86 MTY
$30
$21
$28
$29
17.00 HBC
10.53 CLS
$17
$9
$17
$10
45.39 LB
$45
$45
Gain 25.75
months
53.23%
Buy-ins *100 shares 22Dec2013
Laurentian Bank of Canada
ABCs -TSX 2012 Portfolio Value 22 February
2014 (including dividends) / 31 December 2011
Page 2 of 8
64313.00 / 41972.00
February 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
3. “
ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM–22 February 2014
Cash Forward * after 100 Shares 22dec Buy-ins
Net Cash on StopLoss sales *100 shares (HBC)
Current Cash
Buy-ins *100 shares 22feb14
Secure Energy Services Incorporated
Net Cash (on buy-ins *100 shares (SES) 22feb14)
ABCs -TSX 2012 Portfolio Value 22 February
244.00
1700.00
1944.00
17.21 SES
$15
$15
223.00
64313.00 / 41972.00
2014 (including dividends) / 31 December 2011
Gain 25.75
months
53.23%
$9
$10
$9
$22
$32
$12
$13
$13
$14
$13
$13
$23
$37
$14
$18
$14
$10
$3
$13
$28
$25
$5
$26
$59
$30
$72
$40
$34
$53
$11
$3
$14
$28
$26
$4
$25
$63
$29
$86
$39
$34
$57
(Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings)
Altius Minerals Corporation
ATS Automation Tooling Systems Incorporated
CAE Inc.
Cameco Corporation
Dorel Industries Inc.
Leon's Furniture Limited
Resolute Forest Products Inc
Veresen Inc.
AB-Z 2013 TSX Portfolio * after 100 Shares Buy-ins
14.94
14.24
14.90
23.53
37.14
15.02
23.87
16.25
ALS
ATA
CAE:TO
CCO
DII.B
LNF.TO
RFP
VSN
44403.00
44403.00
22 December 2013
Buy-ins * per 100 Shares 22 December 2013
Acadian Timber Corporation
Ainsworth Lumber Co Ltd (Sold on $topLoss 03feb14)
Aecon Group Inc.
ARC Resources Ltd. (Sold on $topLoss 29jan14)
Bell Aliant Inc. (Sold on $topLoss 31jan14)
Bombardier Inc. (Sold on $topLoss 21jan14)
Progressive Waste Solutions (Sold on $topLoss 29jan14)
Bank of Nova Scotia (Sold on $topLoss 03feb14)
Calfrac Well Services Ltd. (Sold on $topLoss 03feb14)
Canadian Imperial Bank (Sold on $topLoss 27jan14)
Crescent Point Energy Corp. (Sold on $topLoss 03feb14)
Canadian Utilities Limited
Vermilion Energy Inc.
AB-Z 2013 TSX Portfolio
13.81
4.05
15.42
28.00
26.00
4.00
25.00
63.00
29.00
86.00
39.00
39.01
63.3
ADN
ANS
ARE
ARX
BA
BBD.B
BIN
BNS
CFW
CM
CPG
CU
VET
43614.00 / 44403.00
22 February 2014 / 22 December 2013
Cash Forward * after 100 Shares 22dec Buy-ins
Net Cash on StopLoss sales *100 shares (HBC)
Current Cash
Page 3 of 8
Gain 2.0
months
0.00
30400.00
30400.00
February 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
-1.78%
4. “
ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM–22 February 2014
Buy-ins * per 100 Shares 22 February 2014
Agrium Inc.
AltaGas Ltd.
Black Diamond Group Limited
Bonterra Energy Corp.
Canadian Energy Services & Tech. Corp.
Canadian Natural Resources Limited
Cash Forward * after 100 Shares 22feb14 Buy-ins
AB-Z 2013 TSX Portfolio
100.8
41.95
30.38
54.82
25.99
41.15
AGU
ALA
BDI
BNE
CEU
CNQ
$98
$40
$24
$54
$20
$33
$96
$39
$26
$49
$20
$34
Gain 2.0
months
-1.78%
891.00
43614.00 / 44403.00
22 February 2014 / 22 December 2013
Footnote:
Stop-loss settings intend to defend capital from unusual negative market volatility as in case of such
irrational market mavens’ pressures of late January and early February. Irrationally volatile swing occurred
as the prices sharply rebounded without regard for reason. New highs were recorded in the next week
showing a 3% swing in days. Capital was defended as intended but you must now rebuild the portfolio with
replacement buy-ins as shown above. If you did not pay for the stop-loss positions you took the risk but can
carry-on, perhaps, with the exception of BBD-B and CPG, which remain below Risk Price.
AB-Z without Stop Loss Rebounded (thankfully, this time):
Gain 2.0
444942.00 / 44403.00
1.21%
AB-Z 2013 TSX Portfolio
months
22 February 2014 / 22 December 2013
Engage in “likeables” save your own bacon.
Do not expect perfect of Risk Price. Tendency for gain is not the same as pin-the-point on the mule as
most seek. Motley brayers talk only of the survivor bias winner. Let others chase gamblers’ risk/reward
model that rarely works, as their house wins, on fees you donated. Risk Price works.
Proven behaviour of market investors to “likeables” is they like them, that is why 2 of 3 tend to long
term gain in stock price once they trade above the Risk Price. It is essential least eight or more
‘likeables’ portfolio at any time to benefit that tendency. (Holding 100 share blocks for 'collaring
options’ enhances gain. StopLoss weeds laggards to more simply defend small investor capital.)
We share our Risk Price driven proprietary information to small investors. Pay-forward our charity by
designating our normal ‘2 & 20’ fee portion to social charity. Good works deserve5 our help.
ABCs for NYSE Firms 22 January 2014 (including
dividends) / 31 December 2011
Alexander & Baldwin (Sold on N* negative 31jul12)
Alaska Air Group
American Express Co
Brookfield Asset Management
Page 4 of 8
Market
Price
Symbol
Stop/Loss
SF
(Risk Price)
ALEX
81.54 ALK*48
88.75 AXP*48
40.02 BAM*26
February 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
$34
$42
$52
$30
$33
$67
$76
$37
5. “
ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM–22 February 2014
Caterpillar (Sold on N* negative 30nov12)
Colgate-Palmolive (split 2 for 1) ($topLoss 14jan14)
Cummins (Sold on N* negative 30nov12)
ConocoPhilips (Sold on N* negative 30nov12)
CSX Corp
Chevron (Sold on N* negative 30nov12)
Walt Disney Co
GATX Corporation ($topLoss sold 10Jul13)
General Electric Co. ($topLoss 14jan14)
Buy-ins 01Jan13
Gamestop Corp CL A ($topLoss Sold 14jan14)
Hasbro Inc
HSBC Holdings PLC ADS
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc
Huntington Bancshares Inc
Intercontinental Exchange Inc
Interpublic Group of Cos
KLA-Tencor Corporation ($topLoss sold 27aug13)
MBIA Inc (Sold on $topLoss 13dec12)
Principal Financial Group Inc
Tyson Foods Inc CL A
27.32 CSX*20
CVX
80.13 DIS*37
GMT*33
25.00 GE*17
$89
$49
$102
$57
$21
$112
$49
$41
$20
$77
$62
$119
$69
$24
$117
$64
$47
$25
GME:US
HAS
HBC:US
HST:US
HBAN:US
ICE:US
IPG:US
KLAC:US
MBI:US
PFG:US
TSN:US
$29
$41
$6
$46
$14
$131
$11
$45
$8
$27
$21
$40
$47
$8
$52
$17
$210
$15
$58
$11
$44
$28
OMX:US
37.18 P:US
18.36 RRD:US
UBS:US
$10
$24
$15
$15
$13
$24
$15
$16
BBY:US
24.64 HIG:US
18.48 JBL:US
$26
$27
$21
$31
$32
$17
36.51 HSH:US
$30
$31
10.74 XRX:US
$9
$10
25.5 CIEN:US
45.00 XRAY
$19
$20
$46
$46
CAT
124.00 CL*80
CMI
COP
54.3
9.11
54.33
19.54
212.91
16.84
44.48
38.91
Buy-ins 31Jul2013
OfficeMax Incorporated (Takenover by ODP 01nov13)
Pandora Media Incorporated
Donnelley RR & Sons Company
UBS AG ($topLoss sold 05nov13)
Buy-ins 31Aug2013
Best Buy Co. Inc (Sold on $topLoss 14jan14)
Hartford Financial Services
Jabil Circuit Inc
Buy-ins 22Nov2013
Hillshire Brands Company
Buy-ins *100 shares 22Dec2013
Xerox Corp
Buy-ins *100 shares 22jan14
Ciena Corp
DENTSPLY International Inc
ABCs for NYSE 2011 Portfolio Value
115961.00 / 77436.00
22 February 2014 (including dividends) / 31 December 2011
Prior Cash Forward (after Buy-in 22dec13)
Net Cash (on StopLoss sales *100 shares (GME, BBY)
Page 5 of 8
89.00
14900.00
February 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
Gain 25.75
months
49.75%
6. “
ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM–22 February 2014
Current Cash
Buy-ins *100 shares 22feb14
Apache Corp
Baker Hughes Inc
Net Cash Forward (on buy-ins *100 shares 22feb14)
ABCs 2011 Portfolio Value 22 February 2014
14989.00
84.56 APA:US
61.02 BHI:US
$85
$48
$79
$50
431.00
115961.00 / 77436.00
(including dividends) / 31 December 2011
Gain 25.75
months
49.75%
(Pending Need for Change or investing new Savings)
Ascena Retail Group Incorporated
Deltic Timber Corporation
First Horizon National Corp
Genworth Financial Inc
Westmoreland Coal Company
Yelp Incorporated
AB-Z 2013 NYSE Portfolio 22 December 2013
Agilent Technologies Inc
AGCO Corp. ($topLoss 04feb14)
AMC Networks Incorporated ($topLoss 03feb14)
Amgen Inc.
Airgas Incorporated ($topLoss 03feb14)
Beam Incorporated
Baidu Inc. ADS
Biogen Idec Inc
Crown Castle International Corp. ($topLoss 03feb14)
Cerner Corp.
CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. ($topLoss 03feb14)
Capital One Financial Corp. ($topLoss 03feb14)
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp.
Zions Bancorporation
AB-Z 2013 NYSE Portfolio
22 February 2014
(including dividends) / 22 December 2013
Prior Cash Forward (after Buy-in 22dec13)
18.93
63.42
11.46
15.21
21.66
91.82
ASNA:US
DEL:US
FHN:US
GNW:US
WLB:US
YELP:US
$20
$58
$9
$12
$12
$58
$18
$60
$11
$14
$17
$65
$45
$48
$55
$51
$60
$52
$64
$109
$83
$68
$154
$158
$63
$46
$51
$62
$91
$22
$106
$78
$147
$254
$70
$45
$56
$69
$90
$28
131242.00
56.34
52.00
64.00
123.85
106.00
83.23
172.66
347.11
70.00
62.08
56.00
69.00
102.73
29.91
A:US
AGCO:US
AMCX:US
AMGN:US
ARG:US
BEAM:US
BIDU:US
BIIB:US
CCI:US
CERN:US
CHRW
COF:US
CTSH:US
ZION:US
139531.00
/ 131242.00
Gain 2.0
months
6.32%
00.00
Net Cash (on StopLoss sales *100 shares)
41700.00
Current Cash
41700.00
Buy-ins *100 shares 22feb14 (stoplost 6, just buy back-in)
Accenture PLC CL A
AK Steel Holding Corp
Bayer AG ADR
Page 6 of 8
83.8 ACN:US
6.36 AKS:US
139.18 BAYRY:US
February 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
$61
$7
$103
$80
$6
$126
7. “
ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM–22 February 2014
Brown-Forman CL B
Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Incorporated
Zynga Incorporated
Net Cash Forward (on buy-ins *100 shares 22feb14)
AB-Z 2013 NYSE Portfolio
22 February 2014
(including dividends) / 22 December 2013
81.68 BF.B:US
98.11 CBRL:US
5.00 ZNGA:US
$77
$67
$76
$89
$4
$3
287.00
139531.00
/ 131242.00
Gain 2.0
months
6.32%
Footnote:
Stop-loss settings intend to defend capital from unusual negative market volatility as in case of such
irrational market mavens’ pressures of late January and early February. Irrationally volatile swing occurred
as the prices sharply rebounded without regard for reason. New highs were recorded in the next week
showing a 7% swing-back up in days. Capital was defended as intended but you must now rebuild the
portfolio with replacement buy-ins as shown above. If you did not pay for the stop-loss positions you took
the risk but can carry-on, as this time all rebounded and are trading above their Risk Price.
AB-Z without Stop Loss Rebounded (thankfully, this time):
Gain 2.0
140453.00 / 131242.00
7.02%
AB-Z 2013 NYSE Portfolio
22 February 2014 / 22 December 2013
months
Engage in “likeables” save your own bacon.
The conventional investment industry cannot prove any assumptions underlying their methods, whose
results are 1.03:1, like a coin toss. Avoid those Artful Dodgers playing dice with your wallet. Investors
need a real compass6 Risk Price to find their way. Our TaxCharityTM gives proof. In the spirit and
tradition of real science of Bacon and Newton we feign nothing; our demonstrations are in real time
with real consequences obtaining real benefit to investors’ wallets.
In our Modal Geometry theory of the firm we make only two assumptions, clearly as follows:
1. there is a balance sheet of the firm (that the rule of law governs its information is possibly
weak assumption but at an accuracy to at least the modest degree accountants are prepared to be
responsible for); and,
2. the firm will vigorously negotiate, “what it owns” (in order to stay in business “what is owed
to it” with “what it owes” and vice versa, to make the best of what it has, that is in its trading
connections).
The Modal Geometry theory of the firm has unfolded more by rigourous observation in the real world
of corporate ledgers relation to balance sheets. That is aided with logic, epistemology, and some
powerful mathematics, not conventional assumptions with little relevance but, real science.
Our reasons for having any equity in our portfolios are clear, concise and consistent. “likeables” are
equities shown valued by investors, tending to continuing gain, which investors have demonstrated a
determination to buy and hold at stock prices above the price of risk. That tendency demonstrates 2 of 3
“likeables” gaining for the long term, as we continue to show.
Page 7 of 8
February 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.
8. “
ABCs to Zs Defense of Capital, Tax CharityTM–22 February 2014
Proof is positive, in our TaxCharityTM and BookBuilderTM portfolios extending our proprietary
information to small investors. The ABCs and new AB-Zs suit larger wallets. Because we can, while
the entire financial industry is so busy blowing bubbles7 with cash from your wallet.
Know What You Have. Have What You Know.
Our risk averse view works. Of course we require 2&20 fees for doing that. Mail us for our help.
Hans Goetze,
Architypes Inc. architypes@gmail.com and StockTakers Limited hg.stocktaker@gmail.com
Head Office
76 Midridge Close SE
Calgary, AB
T2X 1G1
1
351 Chemin Boulanger
Sutton, PQ
J0E 2K0
450 538-1270
E. Goetze, The Modal Geometry of the Firm and Worth of the Trading Connections, 2009
2
https://www.hedgefundresearch.com/mon_register/index.php?fuse=login&hi
http://riskwerk.com/2013/05/18/the-real-intelligent-investor/
4
http://riskwerk.com/2013/09/15/earnings-dont-matter-2/
5
http://www.slideshare.net/HansGoetze/the-corporate-social-on-our-best
6
http://riskwerk.com/2012/08/26/the-price-of-risk/
7
http://riskwerk.com/2013/10/14/asset-bubbles-day-october-14-2013/
3
Page 8 of 8
February 2014 © Copyright StockTakers Limited, All Rights Reserved. Copying Prohibited.
The author does not provide investment advice. In order to use reproduce or convey the material herein,
in any way, written agreement must be obtained from the author or its agent Architypes Inc.
StockTakers Limited is an Alberta corporation providing information on “likeables” equities.
StockTakers Limited encourages your seeking tax law advisor for capital gains tax dispositions.