Online PMP Training Material for PMP Exam - Risk Management Knowledge Area

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Risk Management
Chapter 11

Chapter 11
Objectives
Understand the different Risk Management
Processes
Their Inputs, Tools and Techniques,
Outputs
This chapter entails one to
understand the various Risk
Management aspects
required to identify, remove
and harness threats or
opportunities.
Driving the project towards
the desired outcome while
the project progresses with
minimal impact to the
project objectives being
accomplished to make the
project successful!

It includes the processes to ensure the project risks are
identified, analyzed, acted, planned with responses and
controlled for minimal impact on project objectives.
Project Risks can be broadly categorized based on the level of
knowledge we have upon them.
Known Risks. The risks which are identified and are
aware to the project management team.
Unknown Risks. The risks which are not yet identified &
might occur instantaneously without prior knowledge.
Risks should be perceived as:
Overall Project Risk. This is the holistic risk of the project
itself considering all individual project risks along with any
other unknown risks beyond the project control.
Individual Project Risks. Risks which can standalone or
in a category group well within reach of the project which
impact partially or a complete project objective set.
Knowledge Area: Risk Management

There are 6 Risk Management processes, namely:
1. Plan Risk Management
Process of ensuring the Risk management is
planned in detailed manner which can be applied
over the course of the project.
2. Identify Risks
Identification of Risks over the Course of the
Project and documentation of their
characteristics.
3. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Performing a qualitative analysis of risks and
conditions to prioritize their effects on project
objectives.
4. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Measuring the probability and consequences of
risks and estimating their implications for project
objectives.
5. Plan Risk Responses
Once Risks are prioritized and weighted, each of
risks are provided a response plan (Avoid,
Transfer, Mitigate, Accept for Negative Risks and
Exploit, Enhance, Share, Accept for Positive
Risks)
6. Control Risks
Controlling Risks over the duration of the project
to the benefit of the project objectives.

Risk responses by Stakeholders
/Organizations depend on:
 Risk Appetite. Degree of Risk which
will be taken up in order to gain a
reward. Variations are measured over
course of the project in LCL (Lower
Control Limit) & UCL(Upper Control
Limit) to understand the stakeholder
risk appetite levels.
 Risk Tolerance Levels. Degree of
Risk which will be entertained beyond
which the attention is required.
 Risk Threshold Levels. Extreme
Levels of Risk either on lower side or
upper side. Crossing the lower side,
the Risk is absolutely negligible and
crossing the upper side, the Risk will
not be tolerated any further.
Total Cost to
Sponsor/Stakeholder
{Project
Cost
{Contingency Reserve
Actual Work Cost
{
{
Management
Reserve
Tolerance Level
Threshold Level
Appetite

11.1 Plan Risk Management
Inputs
•Project Management Plan
•Project Charter
•Stakeholder Register
•Enterprise Environmental
Factors
•Organizational Process
Assets
Tools & Techniques
•Analytical Techniques
•Expert Judgment
•Meetings
Outputs
•Risk Management
Plan
•Integration
•Develop Project Management Plan
•Scope
•Plan Scope Management
•Collect Requirements
•Define Scope
•Create WBS
•Time
•Plan Schedule Management
•Define Activities
•Sequence Activities
•Estimate Activity Resources
•Estimate Activity Duration
•Develop Schedule
•Cost
•Plan Cost Management
•Estimate Costs
•Determine Budget
•Quality
•Plan Quality Management
•Human Resource
•Plan HR Management
•Communications
•Plan Communications Management
•Risk
•Plan Risk Management
•Identify Risks
•Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
•Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
•Plan Risk Responses
•Procurement
•Plan Procurement Management
•Stakeholder
•Plan Stakeholder Management
Planning Process
Risks are uncertain events which may trigger positive or negative impact
on the project outcome. Planning risk management involves end to end
management of risks involved in the project.
Key benefit of this process ensures the degree, type and visibility of risks
are given right and required risk ratings.
Risks in the project have to be dealt with due diligence and with
complete understanding of the same from all the stakeholders. Risk
management starts much before the project is actually conceived.
Identified risks are then in the later stages managed to be minimized,
exploited and if not planned for contingencies. Risks are regularly
revisited and reviewed over the duration of the project.

Analytical Techniques help understand the holistic view of the Risks on the
project.
One mechanism beneficial to diagnose and understand the tolerance and
risk appetite levels of the decision makers/stakeholders.
This definitely helps understand the amount of risks which can be handled
and which need to be pitched as immediate escalation points on the
project.
Analytical Techniques

This plan defines how the risk activities will be performed on the project.
It may include the following:
Methodology
Defined approach along with the tools to perform Risk management
Roles and responsibilities
Defines risk management resources roles & responsibilities
Budgeting
Helps estimate budget to ensure the required reserves are defined
Timing
Time when the information has to be conveyed
Risk categories
Risks may be categorized into multiple categories based on the
project being performed. They may be grouped based on various
approaches.
RBS(Risk Breakdown Structure) helps identify risks from multiple
sources identified in risk identification exercise and categorize them
in a structured manner for ease of addressing them.
Risk Management Plan

Definitions of Risk Probability and Impact: Define the probability and impact definitions that will be used in
the project. Sample Impact Definition Table is shown here.
Probability and Impact Matrix
Risk Management Plan
Very Low
0.10
Low
0.25
Moderate
0.50
High
0.75
Very High
0.90
Scope Insignificant Changes Changes Moderate Changes Major Changes
Major Significant
Changes
Time
<5% Increased
Timeline
<25% Increased
Timeline
25-50% Increased
Timeline
50-70% Increased
Timeline
>70% Increased
Timeline
Cost
<5% Increased Project
Cost
<25% Increased
Project Cost
25-50% Increased
Project Cost
50-70% Increased
Project Cost
>70% Increased
Project Cost
Quality
Quality Changes Not
Significant
Quality May Need To
Be Improved
Sponsor Needs To
Approve The Quality
Product Quality Is Not
Acceptable To
Sponsor
End Product Quality Is
Useless
Very Likely
Most Likely
Likely
Chance of
Likely
Unlikely
Probability
/Impact
Very Low Low Moderate High Very High
Revised Stakeholders’ Tolerances
Continuous revision of stakeholders
tolerances based on their risk appetite over
project duration.
Reporting Formats
Define the report formats which include the
manner, risks will be documented,
formatted, communicated to which
stakeholder group.
Tracking
Risk Tracking is very important as the risks
continuously evolve from one quadrant to
another. Recording of their risk movements
is equally important from the Risk Auditing
perspective.

11.2 Identify Risks
Inputs
•Risk, Cost, Schedule,
Quality, HR Management
Plan
•Scope Baseline
•Activity Cost Estimates
•Activity Duration
Estimates
•Stakeholder Register
•Project Documents
•Procurement Documents
Factors
Assets
Tools & Techniques
•Documentation
Reviews
•Information Gathering
Techniques
•Checklist Analysis
•Assumptions Analysis
•Diagramming
Techniques
•SWOT Analysis
•Expert Judgment
Outputs
•Risk Register
•Integration
•Scope
•Define Scope
•Create WBS
•Time
•Develop Schedule
•Cost
•Estimate Costs
•Determine Budget
•Quality
•Human Resource
•Communications
•Risk
•Identify Risks
•Procurement
•Stakeholder
Planning Process
Risks are uncertain events and identification of them early leads us to
better preparation with suitable action plans.
Documentation of the identified risks with their characteristics helps us
be prepared in likely or unlikely situation of the Risk occurrence.
Documentation of the risks in a consistent manner will provide sufficient
detail so as to compare them with each other and suitable associated
action response plan be derived.
This process of identification of risks is iterative and has to be performed
across the intervals of the project duration.

Risk Register is a document which records the Risk Analysis and
Risk Response Planning. This document evolves as the project
progresses and is a live document.
Risk Register provides input about the Risk events to impact
resource selection and availability during the Estimate Activity
Resources leading to more finer estimates.
List of Identified Risks:
Identified risks are detailed as much possible including the
root cause.
Risk statements may be used in conjunction to triggers such
as Event->Impact and/or Event -> Effect.
List of Potential Responses:
During the identification of the risks, there may be situations
where in the risk response is readily known. These potential
responses should be recorded.
While the project progresses, the risks registered are
continuously reviewed for triggers and/or risk responses.
Risk Register

Documentation Reviews
A detailed study or review of the various
project documents may help indicate and
identify the risks in the project.
Various documents which may be
subjected to review, but not limited to:
Plan Documents
Assumptions
Previous Project Documents
Legal Documents
Compliance Considerations
Organizational Policies
Databases
Historical Plans
Information may be gathered in
various formats:
Brainstorming
Delphi Technique
Interviewing
Root Cause Analysis
Information Gathering Techniques

Checklist Analysis
Risk Identification Checklists may be evolved
over a period of time in any organization which
become a ready reckoner for identification of
risks.
However, proper care should be taken to explore
risks beyond the Checklist itself as this may not
be comprehensive to every project running in the
organization.
Every project is conceived based on certain
assumptions, scenarios and possible postulate.
Each one of these need to be evaluated and
understood in the context of the project in
progress.
AssumptionAnalysis
Certain
Un Certain
LeastImportant
MostImportant
Critical
Region
A AA
AA
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A

Diagramming Techniques
Diagramming techniques involve the usage of the
diagramming methods based on which the risks
can be identified.
Such as:
Ishikawa’s Fish Bone Diagram
System or Process Flow Charts
Influence Diagrams – Helps to identify the
decision tree. As shown below.
Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats
Analysis in short is known as SWOT analysis.
Analysis of the Project is performed to diagnose
the Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats.
This is first done in a manner to identify
Strengths and Weakness. Then based on
Strengths, opportunities are further explored.
Similarly based on weakness, threats are further
explored.
SWOTAnalysis
Strengths
- Strong Brand
Awareness among
Customers
Weakness
- Low Funds for
Expansion
Opportunities
- Build Partnerships
- Increase
Investments
Threats
- Increased
Competition &
Marketing Spends
Fund
Research
Market
Value
Launch
Product
Research
Success
Market
Success
Influence Diagram

11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Inputs
•Risk Management Plan
•Scope Baseline
•Risk Register
Factors
Assets
Tools & Techniques
•Risk Probability And
Impact Assessment
•Probability And Impact
Matrix
•Risk Data Quality
Assessment
•Risk Categorization
•Risk Urgency
Assessment
•Expert Judgment
Outputs
•Project Document
Updates
•Integration
•Scope
•Define Scope
•Create WBS
•Time
•Develop Schedule
•Cost
•Estimate Costs
•Determine Budget
•Quality
•Human Resource
•Communications
•Risk
•Identify Risks
•Procurement
•Stakeholder
Planning Process
Performing a qualitative analysis of risks and conditions to prioritize their
effects on project objectives.
Key benefit of this process is to ensure the specialized focus is on the
high quality risks.
This is done through out the project duration and will cause re-
assessment of certain risks as the project evolves.
In order to ensure there is no influence or bias on the assessment, the
probability and impact definitions are defined upfront.
This also helps in establishing “perform quantitative risk analysis”.

Risk Probability Assessment investigates the
likelihood that each specific risk will occur.
Risk Impact Assessment investigates the impact
on the outcome of the project on Scope, Time,
Cost, Quality parameters should the risk occur.
Each risk is analyzed for both probability and
impact assessment. Risk probabilities and
impacts are rated based on the definitions in the
Risk Management Plan.
All risks are rated based on their assessed
probability and impact as defined in the matrix.
Each of the risks are color coded and accordingly
paid attention. The Risks which are more darker
in color lead to more attention from the project
management team.
Probability ↓ Threats (Negative Risks) Opportunities (Positive Risks)
0.90 .0090 .2250 .4500 .6750 .8100 .8100 .6750 .4500 .2250 .0090
0.75 .0075 .1875 .3750 .5625 .6750 .6750 .5625 .3750 .1875 .0075
0.50 .0050 .1250 .2500 .3750 .4500 .4500 .3750 .2500 .1250 .0050
0.25 .0025 .0625 .1250 .1875 .2250 .2250 .1875 .1250 .0625 .0025
0.10 .0010 .0250 .0500 .0750 .0900 .0900 .0750 .0500 .0250 .0010
Impact
→
Very Low
0.10
Low
0.25
Moderate
0.50
High
0.75
Very High
0.90
Very High
0.90
High
0.75
Moderate
0.50
Low
0.25
Very Low
0.10
Risk Probability & Impact Assessment

A detailed study of the supplementary data
for each risk helps ensure each risk is paid
rightful attention.
This involves the degree of examination of
the data about the risk is known and
understood.
Parameters based on which the data
quality assessment is performed usually
involves accuracy, quality, reliability and
integrity of the data about the risk.
Risks may be categorized based on the:
Sources of Risk Identified
Which affect a particular project area
Common root causes
Common actions or solutions adopted for
risks and so on..
Risk Data Quality Assessment Risk Categorization

Risks which need immediate attention from the perspective of time criticality are
required to be acted upon quickly.
Based on the time criticality, the risk priorities define the Risk Rank Ratings.
Risk Urgency Assessment

11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Inputs
• Risk, Cost, Schedule
Management Plan
• Risk Register
• Enterprise
Environmental Factors
• Organizational Process
Assets
Tools &
Techniques
• Data Gathering and
Representation
Techniques
• Quantitative Risk
Analysis and
Modeling
Techniques
• Expert Judgment
Outputs
• Project
Document
Updates
•Integration
•Scope
•Define Scope
•Create WBS
•Time
•Develop Schedule
•Cost
•Estimate Costs
•Determine Budget
•Quality
•Human Resource
•Communications
•Risk
•Identify Risks
•Procurement
•Stakeholder
Planning Process
Key benefit is to measure the probability and consequences of
risks and estimating their implications for project objectives.
Helps in reducing the project uncertainty by performing the
quantitative risk analysis.
It is mostly used to evaluate the aggregate effect of all risks
affecting the project.
Performing this process requires budget and involves cost. This
Cost benefit should be evaluated before this process can be
exercised.

Commonly used approaches involve:
1. Sensitivity Analysis
2. Expected Monetary Value analysis
3. Modeling and Simulation
Quantitative RiskAnalysis and Modeling Techniques
1. Sensitivity Analysis
This analysis helps identify
the most potential impact on
the project. A sample Tornado
Diagram shows how it is
performed.
-3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Risk 5
Risk 4
Risk 3
Risk 2
Risk 1
Inverted Tornado Diagram
Negative Impact Positive Impact

2. Expected Monetary Value(EMV)
Highest EMV wins.
This type of analysis provides the future possible income or outgo values based on
the statistical probability and impact values.
Risk A
Risk C
80% likely
Risk B
20% likely
Outcome1
70% likely
Outcome2
10% likely
Outcome3
20% likely
INR 100 Lakh
Implication
INR 35 Lakh
Implication
INR 65 Lakh
Implication
INR 100 Lakh
Implication
INR 30 Lakh
Implication

What is your Investment decision based on Risk?
New Product
or
Maintain?
New Product
Development
Investment
$60M
Maintain
Product
Investment
$30M
Strong Sales
Revenue:
$150M
Weak Sales
Revenue :
$70M
Strong Sales
Revenue :
$80M
Weak Sales
Revenue :
$20M

What is your Investment decision based on Risk?
New Product
or
Maintain?
New Product
Development
Investment
$60M
Maintain
Product
Investment
$30M
Strong Sales
Revenue :
$150M
Weak Sales
Revenue :
$70M
Strong Sales
Revenue :
$80M
Weak Sales
Revenue :
$20M
150-60 =
$90M
70-60 =
$10M
80-30 =
$50M
20-30 =
-$10M
70% Chance
30% Chance
70% Chance
30% Chance

Investment decision is based on lowest risk
(eliminating -10M) as well as based on highest EMV(66M)
New Product
or
Maintain?
New Product
Development
Investment
$60M
Maintain
Product
Investment
$30M
Strong Sales
Revenue :
$150M
Weak Sales
Revenue :
$70M
Strong Sales
Revenue :
$80M
Weak Sales
Revenue :
$20M
150-60 =
$90M
70-60 =
$10M
80-30 =
$50M
20-30 =
-$10M
EMV of New Product =
70% * 90 + 30% * 10 =
63 + 3 = $66M
70% Chance
30% Chance
70% Chance
30% Chance
EMV of Maintain =
70% * 50 + 30% * -10 =
35 + (-10) = $25M

3. Modeling and Simulation
This type of analysis is performed when the actual
cost of performing activities may have multiple
variables and could cost immensely to actually
perform feasibility in reality.
Monte Carlo Simulation provides unique multiple
iterations of outcomes based on the predefined
trigger values and parameters using which these
simulations are performed statistically using a
computing machine.
Example: Simply treat it as a task repeated over
many times with different variables over a project
schedule network. What will be the output? Will it
vary every time? Yes. Though repetitions of the task
many times will give us a precise range of how many
days +/- it would take to accomplish that.
That is how the Simulations would help you come up
with almost certain range of all. This includes the
probability of the risks on the Project as well.
Benefits of such Monte Carlo or any other
simulation includes:
- Almost precise calculations considering many
parameters for Cost estimates, Schedule
estimates, Overall risk and so on.
- Since it includes path convergence for the
schedule network, the complexity of every task is
accounted, which brings more stability in
estimates.

Monte Carlo Simulation
Explained
Project
or
Investment
Decision
Risk of Investment 40,000 People, 2B$ Cost, 800 Machines 5 Years Project
Risk of Investment 20,000 People, 3B$ Cost, 600 Machines 10 Years Project
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Definitive
Range of
Years
based on
Multiple
Risk
Based
Scenarios
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

11.5 Plan Risk Responses
Inputs
• Risk Management
Plan
• Risk Register
Tools &
Techniques
• Strategies For
Negative Risks Or
Threats
• Strategies For
Positive Risks Or
Opportunities
• Contingent
Response Strategies
• Expert Judgment
Outputs
• Project
Management
Plan Updates
• Project
Document
Updates
•Integration
•Scope
•Define Scope
•Create WBS
•Time
•Develop Schedule
•Cost
•Estimate Costs
•Determine Budget
•Quality
•Human Resource
•Communications
•Risk
•Identify Risks
•Procurement
•Stakeholder
Planning Process
This is one of the most important Risk Management processes as we
step into the effective actions and evaluate options of how to address
these prioritized risks.
Key benefits of this includes the allocation of budget, resources and
schedule for the identified and actionable risks.
From the multiple options available to response for each risk it is
imperative to understand which option/response will be most appropriate
in the context of the project limits.
Risks include both threats and opportunities for which the responses can
be developed and initiated for action.

Negative Risks or Threats can be acted with response
in following manner:
1. Avoid
2. Transfer
3. Mitigate
4. Accept (Applicable for both Negative Threat &
Positive Opportunity)
Avoid
Where possible it is always recommended to
ensure the critical risks are completely avoided
either by eliminating the threat or by ensuring the
project is shielded completely from the impact of
the threat.
Most radical extreme step to avoid risk would be
to shutdown the project itself.
Transfer
Transfer of risk to a third party for a price ensures
the risk even if it occurs minimizes the impact on
the project, since it is offset with the third party.
Risks which are transferred to a third party
involves risks with major cost implication to
project.
Transfer of the risk, does not eliminate risk itself, it
just transfers the ownership to a third party.
Mitigate
Project team acts to minimize the impact &
probability of the risk over a period of time to
ensure the risk is brought to minimal state or
completely eliminated.
Accept
Team acknowledges the risk and waits until the
risk occurs to respond on it.
Active Acceptance – Build a contingency reserve
to ensure when the risk occurs it is readily acted with
the contingency (time, cost, scope, quality).
Passive Acceptance – It is documented and then
awaited until risk occurs, so that further action can
be taken up.
Strategies For Negative Risks Or Threats
Critical Risks with
High Impact
Less Critical Risks with Low
Impact
Avoid Good Strategy
Mitigate Good Strategy
Transfer Good Strategy
Accept Good Strategy

Positive Risk Example: A potential delay in the
delivery of materials which happened to be
delivered ahead of time. This risk is now an
opportunity to check on the schedule what work
can be done already in advance given the
availability of materials.
Positive Risks or Opportunities can be acted with
response in following manner listed below.
1. Exploit
2. Enhance
3. Share
4. Accept (Passive Acceptance Only)
Exploit
When there are risks which can be beneficial to
the organization, it is natural that these risks are
driven towards ensuring Risk occurs.
Enhance
When you want to increase the probability or likely
chances to ensure the risk occurs by maximizing
the possibilities of risk occurrence.
Share
Sharing of the risk to third party for maximum
throughput when we make the risk occur to
maximize risk out come.
Accept
Accepting the risk to harness the opportunity
when the risk actually arises on its own and not
actively pursuing.
Strategies for Positive Risks or Opportunities

Some of the responses are planned only when the risks will occur such as in Accept – Active Acceptance.
In such a response planning, a contingent reserve or a fall back plan is established so as to respond
appropriately upon the occurrence of such a risk.
There is no substitute to experience when it comes to Contingent Response Strategies – Expert Judgment
stays on top of the list strategy.
While many project managers simply prefer to have a transfer of risks when they occur, rather than manage
in practice.
Contingent Response Strategies

11.6 Control Risks
Inputs
•Risk Register
•Work Performance Data
•Work Performance Reports
Tools & Techniques
•Risk Reassessment
•Risk Audits
•Variance and Trend Analysis
•Technical Performance
Measurement
•Reserve Analysis
•Meetings
Outputs
•Work Performance
Information
•Change Requests
Updates
•Project Document Updates
•Organizational Process Assets
Updates
•Integration
•Monitor and Control Project Work
•Perform Integrated Change Control
•Scope
•Validate Scope
•Control Scope
•Time
•Control Schedule
•Cost
•Control Costs
•Quality
•Control Quality
•Human Resource
•Communications
•Control Communications
•Risk
•Monitor & Control Risks
•Procurement
•Control Procurements
•Stakeholder
•Control Stakeholder Management
Monitoring & Controlling
Process
It is the process of controlling risks during the project by
monitoring existing risks, their response plans, risk movements,
identification of new risks, elimination of outdated risks to
ensure the project objectives are least harmed or nil impact due
to risks.
Key benefit includes the effective Risk management and its
minimized or nullified risk impact on the project objectives.
This process also ensure the planned risk management
processes are being followed during the course of the project
and any further improvements to the risk processes are
adopted.

Risk Reassessment
It is a continuous process through out Project life cycle and performed across all Process Groups.
Risk Reassessments should be carried out frequently to perform the new risk identification, re-planning the
risk responses, close the outdated risks.
Based on the project size and the organizational practice, the project management team and/or specialized
risk management team reassess the risks at frequent intervals.
Identify
Observe
RegulateClose
Re-Assess

More Tools & Techniques
Variance & Trend Analysis
Performance baselines defined in
the project should be constantly
monitored for any variances.
Also based on the trend analysis
of baseline performance, suitable
actions should be planned,
including further risk identification
and actions in the Project.
Technical Performance
Measurement
Technical performance of the Project is
usually measured based on the type of
project we execute.
Suppose in a software project, we would
be interested in the Technical
performance of Planned Flawless
Modules against Actual Modules with
Flaws.
Suppose in a construction project, we
would be interested in the Technical
performance based on planned bricks
with weight of 2 KG versus actual weight
being 2.4 KG.
Measuring such Technical performance
gives an indication of the success
chances of Project.

Chapter 11 - Debrief

THIS BRINGS TO “RISK MANAGEMENT” COMPLETION.
From what we have understood so far is:
 6 Risk Management Knowledge Area Processes
 Identified their Inputs, Tools & Techniques, Outputs
Chapter 11

Acknowledgements & Disclaimer
PMI, PMBOK, PMP, CAPM, PgMP, PMI-
ACP, PMI-RMP, PMI-SP are registered
marks of Project Management Institute,
Inc.
All registered trademarks, symbols, names
are marks of their respective owners and
acknowledged.

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