Presentation by Piper Jaffray at OIS@ASRS 2016.
Participant:
Andrew Gitkin, Head, West Coast Investment Banking - Piper Jaffray
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PUBLIC MARKET TRENDS IN OPHTHALMOLOGY
1. August 2016
Public Market Trends in Ophthalmology
Andrew Gitkin
Head, West Coast Biotech Investment Banking
Member SIPC and FINRA
2.
3. 3PIPER JAFFRAY
US Markets Had the Worst 10-Day Start in History in 2016
Key Drivers
Uncertainty
with Fed
Weakness
in oil prices
VRX
Aftermath
Decline in
China
(25%)
(20%)
(15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
1/1 1/8 1/15 1/22 1/29
Dow Jones NASDAQ S&P 500 NBI
(5.1%)
(5.5%)
(7.9%)
(21.0%)
Source: CapitalIQ as of July 29, 2016
4. 4PIPER JAFFRAY
(15.0%)
(10.0%)
(5.0%)
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
J-16 F-16 M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16
Brexit and
Geopolitical
Shocks
Equity Markets Bounce Back Despite Lingering Concerns
Source: CapitalIQ as of July 29, 2016
Key Drivers
DJI NASDAQ S&P 500
Stability in
Commodities
Improving
Labor Market
FOMO Rally
Election
Uncertainty
US Safe
Haven Status
Significant
Currency
Fluctuations
5. 5PIPER JAFFRAY
Positive Signs of Market Upswing Emerging
Net Equity Fund Flows Since 2015
($BN)
Hedge Funds Playing Catch Up
Largest intra-
quarter reversal
since 1933
$7
($7)
($24)
($8)
($44)
($46)
$0
($50)
($40)
($30)
($20)
($10)
$0
$10
1Q
2015
2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q
2016
2Q 3Q (15%)
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
J-16 F-16 M-16 A-16 M-16 J-16 J-16
HFRX
S&P500
Source: Dealogic, Capital IQ as of July 29, 2016
6. 6PIPER JAFFRAY
Financial Profile of Corporate America Remains Robust
S&P 500 Earnings Guidance S&P 500 1-Year Forward P/E
Source: Fidelity, Bloomberg, CapitalIQ as of July 29, 2016
Positive-to-Negative Guidance Ratio
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
Ratio (12-Month) Average
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Median = 15.2x
0.0x
5.0x
10.0x
15.0x
20.0x
25.0x
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
7. 7PIPER JAFFRAY
Equity Market Outlook
Bulls
Resilient U.S. market
Limited upside in the
U.S. dollar
Treasury yields at
record lows
Positive economic
fundamentals
Historically low global
rate environment
Subdued inflation and
a dovish Fed
Bears
Geopolitical risk (Brexit,
Turkey, etc.)
Heightened volatility
during elections
Changes in the Fed’s
monetary stance
Emerging market stress
Shocks of noneconomic
origin
Piper Jaffray forecasts a 2,350 S&P 500 year-end price target, ~8% above current levels
8. 8PIPER JAFFRAY
So What Does This Mean For the Healthcare Market in 2016?
S&P Sector Performance - YTD
Source: CapitalIQ as of July 29, 2016
(-1.1%)
4.5%
5.0%
7.0%
8.2%
8.3%
8.6%
10.8%
20.3%
20.7%
-5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
9. 9PIPER JAFFRAY
(60%)
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
J-14 M-14 S-14 J-15 M-15 S-15 J-16 M-16
Sector Rotation out of Biotech in 2016
Source: CapitalIQ as of July 29, 2016
Key
Observations
Political
Headwinds /
Pricing
Heightened Risk
Aversion
Healthcare
Energy Trade
Decoupled
44
Days
NBI S&P 500 Medtech Index Energy Index VIX
70
Days
VRX News
Slowdown 1 Slowdown 2
90+
Days
Slowdown 3
Portfolio
Rationalization
10. 10PIPER JAFFRAY
(30%)
(20%)
(10%)
0%)
10%)
20%)
30%)
40%)
J-15 A-15 J-15 O-15 J-16 A-16 J-16
Biotech Index Medtech Index
Biotech Ophthalmology Medtech Ophthalmology
Ophthalmology Traded in Line with the Broader Market
1) Medtech Ophthalmology includes: Clearside, Glaukos, J&J, Presbia, and STAAR
2) Biotech Ophthalmology includes: Aerie, AGTC, Allergan, Bayer, Gensight, Inotek, Nicox, Novartis/Alcon, Ocular, Omeros, Ophthotech, Regeneron, Shire, Valeant
• Company-specific events and volatile new IPOs caused medtech ophthalmology to trail the
medtech index in 2015
• Biotech ophthalmology traded in line with the biotech index and saw a major reversal in
2016 relative to medtech
Source: Capital IQ
11. 11PIPER JAFFRAY
M&A
IPO
Nov 2015
Key Events and Investor Themes in Ophthalmology
Jan 15 May 15 Sep 15 Jan 16 May 16 Jul 16
July 2015
July 2015
Feb 2015 Aug 2015
July 2016Feb 2016
July 2016
June 2015
Jan 2015
Jan 2015
June 2016Feb 2015
Strong Fundamentals
• Growing market
• Sustained innovation
• Strong pricing dynamics
• Favorable reimbursement environment
IPO Capital Raised M&A Exits
$604m $1.4B+
Source: Public filings, Dealogic
13. 13PIPER JAFFRAY
(25%)
0%
25%
50%
Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16
2016 IPOs Faced Meaningful Pricing Pressure But Have Performed Well
Data as of 07/29/2016
Biopharma IPO Pricing Trends 2016 Biopharma Rolling IPO Performance
42.9% 45.3%
41.5% 42.9%
75.0%
45.2% 41.3%
30.2%
57.1%
25.0%
50.0%
11.9% 13.3%
28.3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 2014 2015 Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Above In Range Below Historical Performances
2014 2015 2016 YTD
47.5% 0.6% 9.5%
50.0%
Source: Public filings, Dealogic
14. 14PIPER JAFFRAY
Key Success Factors for Going Public in Today’s Market
Significant levels of crossover and insider
support at launch
Valuable lead program with de-risked
development plan for multiple products
Targeting attractive markets with long
duration assets
Positive data and near term catalysts
Demonstrated investor interest
Experienced management team and Board of
Directors
Valuation at current market levels
Quarterly Insider Support Trends
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
57.1%
88.9%
100.0%
0% 50% 100%
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
Source: Public filings, Piper Jaffray