Forecasting container traffic at major ports in india

1. Forecast of container traffic at major
ports in India

2. Objective
The objective of this study is to conduct a
study on container traffic of major ports of India
and forecasting demand and supply of
containers in same context.

3. Research methodology
• Defining the objective.
• Understanding requirements according to
scope and significance.
• Selection of forecasting model linear
regression model.
• Identification of sources and references of
secondary data.

4. Cont…..
• Validating data, testing quality of data.
• Applying linear regression model on validated
data.
• Analysis for forecasting data for
recommendations.

5. Scope of the study
• With unpredictability of Global commerce
pattern, it becomes hard to forecast actual
demand-supply scenario of container
economic zone.
• Cyclic up and down movement of container
shipping cycle also contributes in errors in
forecasted data.

6. Containerization
• Containerization is the use of containers to
unitize product and cargo for transportation,
supply and storage.
• Containerization is a system of intermodal
transport by different modes of transport like
sea, roads etc.

7. History
• Containerisation has its origins in the
beginning of coal mining areas in England
from the late 18th century.
• Initially it was simple rectangular timber box.
• In beginning of 1900s saw adoption of closed
container boxes designed for movement
between road and rail. .
• originally used for moving coal on and off
barges.

8. History
• Finally in 1956 containers introduced to the
world trade.
• Advanced container shipping industry has
celebrated its 50th anniversary in 2006.
Almost from very first voyage.
• Liverpool and Manchester Railways in United
Kingdom were one of these who used to move
containers.

9. Types of containers
• Dry Storage Containers
• Flat Rack Containers
• Open Top Containers
• Tunnel Containers
• Open Side Storage Containers
• Double Doors Containers

10. Cont….
• Refrigerated ISO containers
• Thermal Containers
• Tanks
• Cargo storage Roll Container
• Half Height Containers
• Car Carriers

11. Cont…
• Drums
• Special Purpose Containers
• Intermediate Bulk Shift Containers

12. Container traffic at major ports
India has 13 major ports and 187 non-major
ports. Of non-major ports, only about 48 are
operational; while rests are fishing harbors.
Ports provide an interface between sea
transport and land transport.
Containerisation traffic mostly belongs to only
major ports. Only select non-major ports like
Pipavav Port, Mundra Port etc. cater to
containerized traffic.

13. 2012-2013 2011-2012 2010-2011 2009-2010 2008-2009
2007-2008 2006-2007 2005-2006 2004-2005
2003-2004
KOLKATA
463 412 377
378
302 297 239 203 159 106
HADIA
137 140 149
124
127 128 110
110 128
137
PARADIP
13 8 4
4
2
4
2
3
2 4
VISAKHAPATNAM
248 224 145
98
86
71 56 47 45 20
CHENNAI
1539 1558 1524
1216
1143
1128 886 735
617
539
TUTICORIN
470 477 468
440 439 450 377 321 307 254
COCHIN
326 336 312
290 261 254 227 203 185 170
NEW
MANGALORE
48 45 40
3 29 21 17 10 9 7
MORMUGAO
20 22 18
17 14 14 13 9 10 10
MUMBAI
58 58 72
58 92 118 138 159 219 197
JNPT
4259 4231 4270
4062 3952 4060 3298 2667 2371 2269
KANDLA
118 168 160
147
138
167
178
148
181 170
TOTAL
7699 7679 7539
6865 6585 6712 5541
4744 4233
3900

14. Growth of containers trade
Year Demand Supply
2000 10.7 7.8
2001 2.4 8.5
2002 10.5 8.0
2003 11.6 8.0
2004 13.4 8.0
2005 10.6 10.5
2006 11.2 13.6
2007 11.4 11.8
2008 4.2 10.8
2009 -9.0 4.9
2010 4.8 8.3
2011 7.1 6.7
2012 3.3 5.2
2013 5.0 6.0

15. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Demand
Supply

16. YEAR TOTAL CARGO HANDLED AT INDIAN PORTS FROM 2003 TO 2013 GDP GROWTH RATE
Y (MMT) X (%)
2003
7.445
8.3
2004
7.468
6.2
2005
7.699
8.4
2006
7.679
9.2
2007
7.539
9
2008
6.865
7.4
2009
6.585
7.4
2010
6.712
10.1
2011
5.541
6.8
2012
4.744
6.5
2013
4.233
4.4

17. Container traffic forecasting
Y = 1.06422 –
0.14043X

18. a = 1.06422
b = 0.14043

19. Considering GDP to increase by 1%
every year for next 3 years.
YEAR TOTAL CARGO HANDLED AT INDIAN PORTS FROM 2014 TO 2016 GDP GROWTH RATE
Y (MMT) X (%)
2014
7.445
4.9
2015
7.662
5.9
2016
7.775
6.9

20. Conclusion
Container economic zone forecast can give idea on
grown or downfall of demand and supply, thus
benefiting organizations and stakeholders of
container commerce, by mitigating risks of shipping
cycle trend. Analysis of economic zone forecast of
containers shows current movement of shipping
cycle. Thus, such analysis will provide information
such as additional capacities are required.