Worl food day presentation 2012 november 13 food security in oman

Food Security in Oman
Position and Prospects
Hemesiri Kotagama
Department of Natural Resource Economics
College of Agricultural and Marine Sciences
Sultan Qaboos University
World Food Day 2012 SQU1

CONTENT
 Global position on food markets and food security
 Oman’s position on food security: Economic Measures
– (Salwa Al Jabri & Kotagama, MSc)
 Oman’s prospects to achieve food security
– Staple: Wheat
 ( Houcine, Kotagama: SQU Study)
– Fish
 (Khamis Al Jabri & Kotagama, MSc)
– Role of Government
 (Press Release)
– Role of Individuals
 (Esma Al Balushi & Kotagama)

GLOBAL POSITION ON FOOD
SECURITY:PAST AND PRESENT EXPECTATION
Definition of food security (UN/ FAO)
Food security exists:
– when all people,
– at all time,
– have physical, social and economic access
– to sufficient, safe and nutritious food
– which meets their dietary needs and
– food preferences
– for an active and healthy life.

Global
Global food availability
National
National net
food imports
National food
production
National food
availability
Household
Incomes
Household food
access
Food Security Care Health
Other basic needs
and non necessities
HouseholdIndividual
Nutritional
Security
FOUR LEVELS OF FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS

Social Aspects of Food Security
Effect of Mothers Nutritional Knowledge and Attitudes on Omani Children’s Dietary Intake
Ali Al-Shookri, Layla Al-Shukaily, Fouad Hassan, Sadeq Al-Sheraji, Saif Al-Tobi
Oman Medical Journal (2011) Vol. 26, No. 4: 253-257
Abstract
Objectives: The study investigates the dietary intakes of Omani preschoolers and associations with
both socio-demographic characteristics and the mother’s nutritional knowledge and attitudes.
Methods: A sample of 154 parents of preschoolers completed a questionnaire including socio-
demographic characteristics, a food-frequency questionnaire to assess children’s food intake,
nutritional knowledge and attitudes towards healthy eating.
Results: The results showed a lower dietary adequacy of children’s food intake in mothers with low
educational levels, high-ranked occupation, and lower levels of both nutritional knowledge and food
related health attitudes. The highest food intake and healthy eating attitude scores were found in
children of mothers with high education level and mother without a job. The association of the dietary
adequacy with socio-demographic background can help the Omani healthcare decision makers to
develop better-tailored nutrition interventions which are more suitable for the Omani community.
Conclusion: The results from this study of mothers’ nutritional knowledge and attitudes support the
inclusion of knowledge and attitudes in dietary interventions.

One Aspect of Health, Food and
Richness: Obesity

Other Aspect of Health, Food
and Poverty: Malnourishment

GLOBAL POSITION ON FOOD SECURITY:
PRESENT REALITY
 Since 2007
– “silent tsunami of hunger
is sweeping the world.”
 Within 2 years
– Food prices rose by 83%.
– Wheat and rice prices
have nearly tripled
(300%).
 1% increase in food price
reduces the calorie intake by
0.5% among the poor.
 Rising food prices have
pushed 100 m people below
poverty line.

Factors contributing to change in
food commodity prices

Demand based reasons.
 Economic boom in developing countries (India
and China)
 37% of world population in India and China
 Increased income (more than 600 million new middle
class)
 Leading to increased demand for food and meat
– Corn and wheat diverted to feed from food
– Food conversion ratio (700 cal of animal feed produces 100
cal in beef, 7:1)

Economic Reasons Cont.
• Fuel substitutes food
• Threat of climate change and high petroleum prices induces agro-fuel (ethanol) production.
• President Bush signed the “Energy Independence and Security Act” on 19th
December 2007, which mandates 36 billion gallons of bio fuel to be produced yearly
by 2022.
• By 2020 US and EU demand for grain for ethanol production will be 400 m tons a
year.
• China aims at producing 15 billion litres of bio fuel by 2020.
• By 2008 demand for grain for bio fuel is 114 m tons (28% of the projected harvest).
• US estimate is that the impact of bio fuel production as 3% increase in food prices
but WB estimate is 75%.
• Corn requirement to fill a tank of a car with 18.5 gallon capacity could feed a human
being for 270 days.

Market Speculation for Food
– Investments in grain and livestock
futures has more than doubled to about
$65 Billion from $ 25 Billion in
November 2007.
– More than half the value of corn, soya
and wheat of US (the largest exporter)
has already been bought.

 Supply Based
Reasons
 Rise in oil prices
increasing the cost
of production of
food and
transport.
– Modern farming is
energy intensive
Type: PNG

• Price of fertilizer
increased much faster
than food prices
(2007-2008)
 Increasing the cost
of food production
and raising the
supply function
thus food prices.

 Climate Factors
 Drought in major
grain producing
areas
– Australia, second
largest exporter of
wheat
– Wild fires in Russia

 Complacency
– Ignoring investments in
agricultural education,
research and technological
adoption.
 Investment in
agricultural research in
developing countries is
only 0.6% of GDP richer
countries it is 5% of
GDP.
 Removing government
intervention and allowing the
market to provide food
– Structural adjustment/
Privatization

OMAN’S POSITION: PAST AND TREND
Oman up to 1970’s with
low population (0.65 m)
and subsistence farming
has been nearly self-
sufficient in food.

OMAN’S REPORT TO WORLD FOOD
SUMMIT 2006
 Food security 2005 (% domestically
produced)
– Milk 29%
– Red meat 34%
– Poultry eggs 53%
– Poultry meat 35%
– Fish 134%
– Dates 108%
– Total fruits 70%
– Total vegetables 56% World Food Day 2012 SQU20

Consumption of energy, protein and fat in Oman ( per person per
day) from 2005 to 2007 (Source: Adapted from MNE , 2009)

DOMESTIC PRODUCTION CAPACITY: PAST PERFORMANCE
(1995-2007)
Annual growth Rates(%(1995-Annual growth Rates(%(1995-
2007)2007)
VegetablesVegetables -3.9-3.9
WheatWheat -1.6-1.6
FruitsFruits 7.47.4
MilkMilk 52.052.0
MeatMeat 12.412.4
PoultryPoultry 25.625.6
FishFish 1.71.7
Vegetable Production (Tons)
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
1995 2000 2005 2006 2007
Fruits
Veg
AnimalProduction(Tons)
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
1995 2000 2005 2006 2007
Meat
Milk
Poultry
Fish
(‫)طن‬ ‫القمح‬‫وانتاج‬ (‫)فدان‬ ‫مساحة‬
0
2000
4000
1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007
‫لمساحة‬‫ا‬
‫تنتاج‬‫ل‬‫ا‬

OMANS POSITION: PRESENT
Annual inflation in Oman in the past
18 years was 1% or less.
Inflation this year 10%.
Food prices have increased by
– 17-20%.

-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
GENERAL
INFLATION
FOOD INFLATION
World Market was
unreliable as a source of food
supply
Price inflation in Oman was
one of the highest in GCC
Need to strengthen the role
of Local Production in
insuring food security
50
100
150
200
250
2000M1 2001M1 2002M1 2003M1 2004M1 2005M1 2006M1 2007M1 2008M1
LESSONS LEARNED FROM 2007-
2008 FOOD CRISIS
World food price indices
Oman food price inflation

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
Cerals products
Meat&poultry
Fish
Dairy&eggs
Oil&fats
Fruits&veg
Sugar products
Beverage-non alcoholic
Others
%change
Changes in food prices in the
Sultanate during 2006-2008

Analysis of Household Expenditure and
Income Survey: Food
The Structure of Household Food Consumption Basket
Oman 2008
12%
16%
7%
10%2%9%
9%4%
7%
15%
4% 5%
Cereals products
Meat &poultry
Fish
Dairy &eggs
Oil&fats
Fruits
vegetable
Sugar products
beverage
resturant food
food from own production
others
Cereals, meat and “Food away from home” dominate (15%) the household food basket

Percent fulfillment of recommended nutrients
from actual food consumption

Nutritionally Adequate Least Cost Diet for Oman:
Mathematical Structure of the Model
foodsofnumberthen
nutrientsofnumberthem
spreferenceifoodp
ifoodofdaypereattoservinggramsux
foodofgramsupertc
jnutrientofamountdailyrequiredb
ifoodofgramsuinjnutrientofamounta
nix
xofp
xpx
mjbxa
tosubject
xcMinfunctionobjective
i
i
i
i
ij
i
n
i
ii
n
i
iii
n
i
iij
n
i
ii
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=≥
=
=≥
∑
∑
∑
∑
=
=
cos
,....,1,0
%
,......1
1
1


NAPLCD value under different
food access scenarios
OR/Month/Household
Scenario/Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Purchasedfooditems 153.140 154.539 158.001 159.343 168.654 198.900
Purchasefooditemsandrestaurantfood(70%) 173.272 174.855 178.772 180.290 190.825 225.048
Purchasefooditemsandproduce(30%) 139.440 140.839 144.301 145.643 154.954 185.201
WeightedAverage 163.1228 164.6499 168.4304 169.8958 180.064 213.0938

Income distribution in Oman
Year 2000 Year 2008
Income (OR/Month/Household) % Households’
Less than 100 8.20 3.00
100-199 12.30 4.70
200-299 13.30 7.60
300-399 12.40 9.00
400-499 10.40 9.50
500-599 8.80 6.50
600-699 5.90 5.70
700 and more 28.70 54.00
Average Income
(OR/ Month/Household) 638.000 913.000
Source: MONE (2001 and 2010)

Lorenz curves on income distribution for years 2000
and 2008

Percent of income spent on food
with increasing household income

Measures of food insecurity revealing
the impact of price increases on food
security
Food Security
Headcount Rate (P0)
Food Security
Gap (P1)
Squared Food Security Gap (P2)
Income Distribution Income Distribution Income Distribution
2003 2008 change 2003 2008 change 2003 2008 change
2008
Prices
42.8 29.3 -13.5 15.2 6.9 -8.3 8.9 3.4 -5.4
2003
Prices
24.0 9.7 -14.3 10.0 3.7 -6.3 6.2 2.3 -4.0
Note: Changes shown between
years 2003 and 2008

The cost of alleviating food
insecurity
Data for Estimation
NAPLC 2008 OR/Month/Houshold 213
F0 0.29
F1 0.069
Average food Gap 50.67931034
Population Milion 2300000
Number food insecure 667000
Total food gap 116562413.8
GDP 2008 market prices 23185100000
Food Gap/GDP as % 0.502747082

Growth and redistribution decomposition of food security
changes
(without changes in food prices: 2003 Prices)
Income Distribution Change in incidence of Food Security
2003 2008
Actual
change
Growth Redistribution Interaction
Food Security
Headcount Rate (P0)
24.02 9.70 -14.32 -6.31 -6.92 -1.09

OMAN’S PROSPECTS:
ROLE OF GOVERNMENT
 Given resource scarcity and increased population and
income;
– Oman will have to depend on world market for food.
 Government has a role to reduce the risks of high prices
and export restrictions etc.
– Improve efficiency of local production
oman-food-security-strategy-increasing-local-production.html
– Adopt food safety net policies to improve access to food for poor.
 Food ration, food stamp, increase income, …
– Maintain justifiable planned buffer stocks and not ‘panic buy’.
qn_news_story_s.asp.htm
– Establish a unit to monitor and guide food imports by private sector
Diversify food import sources.
– Cultivating in other countries possessing resources 12495.htm
– Encourage investments on agriculture (education, research and
production) in Oman and in foreign nations (Food Diplomacy).

OMAN’S SHORT TERM RESPONSE
Secured 200,000 tonnes of rice,
sufficient to feed the population for
2 years. (Observer, 4th
May 2008)
State workers salaries were
increased by 43%.

OMAN’S PROSPECTS: WHEAT

World Average 2.75 MT/Ha Oman Average 3.16 MT/Ha

 Oman has traditionally grown wheat and the climate
is conducive for wheat production.
 At present Oman is in a position to import its wheat
requirement. Although wheat prices have increased
recently, the increase in oil prices may compensate
increases in wheat price.
 Reliance on imported wheat alone may put Oman at
risk in the event of wheat embargoes.
 Considering the limited supply of suitable land and
water for agriculture, major shifts in land and water
use away from crops cultivated at present will be
required to produce significant amounts of wheat.
 Therefore, Oman may aim for and achieve partial
wheat sovereignty.

OMAN’S PROSPECTS: FISH
The decreased availability of fish in domestic markets is
despite increased population and income in Oman.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Fish landed Total exports Local use
000Ton
29%
-12%
83%

It was hypothesized that the
transport function of Omani fish
markets is inefficient.
– The transport function is favoring export
markets instead of domestic markets.
A “Transport Model” based on linear
programming was developed for the
analysis.

Sohar
Masirah
Mahoot
JBBA
Dubai
Ibri
Nizwa
Seeb

Observed and Optimal Prices: Kingfish

Oman’s fish market if efficient, yet
favouring exports over domestic
markets.
The big “trade-off” : Efficiency vs.
Equity.
Less fish in domestic markets will
impact food balance and security,
particularly in the interior areas.

Food Waste in Oman:
Responsibility of All

Esma’s study
An average Omani family wastes
about a third (1/3) of all food
prepared within the household.
Omani household typically throws
away 70 Omani riyals (Dh9.5) worth
of leftover food every month.
Food waste of 3 families can feed 1
poor family for a month.

Please …

Thank you for not wasting food …

Worl food day presentation 2012 november 13 food security in oman

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Worl food day presentation 2012 november 13 food security in oman