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INDIA AT 2030 - HOW TECH
ENTREPRENEURSHIP WILL CREATE A
$10 TRILLION ECONOMY
T V MOHANDAS PAI
India is ready to retake its place as a
top 3 economy in the world by 2030.
“
INDIA AT A GLANCE
INDIA – KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2016 VS. 1991
25 YEARS’ SNAPSHOT POST-LIBERALISATION
INDIA’S GDP GROWTH % - LAST 10 YEARS
REGAINING GROWTH MOMENTUM
Expected GDP growth rate for 2016-17 is 7.5%
INDIA – GDP PROJECTIONS
India needs to grow at 8% CAGR to be a $10 Tril economy by 2035
China’s GDP grew at an average of 9.9% p.a. from 1979 to 2011
THE WORLD IS CHANGING
INDIA & CHINA AT A GLANCE - CHINA HAS GROWN FASTER
TRENDS IN INFLATION (CPI)
SPEND ON SUBSIDY
FINALLY SEEMS TO BE GETTING UNDER CONTROL
With strong reforms and the use of JAM (Jan Dhan, Aadhar, and
Mobile), subsidy leakage will be reduced
INDIA HAS A STRONG INDUSTRIAL BASE
WE HAVE A YOUNG POPULATION
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A YOUNG POPULATION
We are NOT an aging country!
HIGHER EDUCATION (HE) INFRASTRUCTURE IN INDIA
GROWTH IS ABOUT PEOPLE, WE HAVE INCREASED ACCESS IN HE
WE HAVE ADEQUATE SAVINGS FOR INVESTMENT AND GROWTH
GDP BY SECTOR IN 2014 : INDIA VS CHINA
WE HAVE VERY DIFFERENT PATTERNS
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
INDIA IS SPENDING MUCH BELOW ITS NEED AND CHINA, WAY ABOVE
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
CHINA’S SPEND IS OVER TWICE THE RATE OF INDIA, ON A MUCH HIGHER GDP BASE IN THE LAST 20 YEARS
18
The Startup Ecosystem will help create a
$10 Trillion GDP economy in India by
2030.“
S
3rdLargest startup
ecosystem in the World
19,400
startups
270%growth in 6 years
$80 BilValue Created
INDIAN STARTUPS AT A GLANCE
IndianStartupEcosystem
3rd Largest Startup Ecosystem in the world + Fastest Growing
19,400 startups in India at present.
Indian startups raised $3.5 Bil funding in the first half of 2015 and
$4.5 Bil in second half of 2015. Total investment in 10 years has
crossed $50 Bil.
Indian startups raised $3.5 Bil across 815 deals in Q1, Q2 &
Q3 in 2016, against $7.3 Bil that was invested across 639
deals during the same period in 2015
76.4% of startups that have raised funding in 2016 YTD are
concentrated in Bengaluru, Mumbai and NCR-Delhi region.
NEW FLYWHEEL RAMPING UP
1998 - SW Services took
off
2015 - Startups take off
Result in 2016:
- $175 Bil revenue
- $110 Bil exports
- 4.25 Mil People Employed
10 year Projection: Fireflies
lighting up the sky!
- 100,000 Startups
- Employment: 3.5 Mil
- $500+ Bil in Market Value
- #2 after US
- 30 Mil SMEs lifted
STARTUP LANDSCAPE BY CITY
19,400 Startups in India
Mostly concentrated in
Bangalore (31.44%), Delhi
(20%), Mumbai (13%) and
Chennai (10%)
Bangalore strong in B2C
STARTUP VALUATIONS
B2C VALUATIONS
$9 bn
$6.5 bn
$5 bn
$5 bn
$1 bn
STARTUP VALUATIONS
22%
12%
9% 8%
46%
16%
13% 12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
NASDAQ SEHK NSE BSE
Technologyasapercentageofoverall
Set to grow dramatically in coming years
No. of companies Market Cap
USE OF DIGITAL PLATFORMS
Startups looklike?
So whatwill the futureof
AADHAAR – ZERO TO 1 BIL IN 5.5 YEARS
942M
600M
300M
100M
50M
THE EVOLUTION OF THE INDIA STACK – BUILT ON JAM
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
AEP
S
Aadhaar
Authentication
APB
Aadhaar
eKyc
eSign
UPI
Consent
Architecture
Digilocker
GSTN
950 M
1005 M
196 M
Aadhaar
Mobile
JDY
2009
944 M
600 M
100 M
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report, PMJDY, Aadhaar Web
Sites
ACCELERATED BY REGULATORY INNOVATION
Source: News Reports
BANK
LIBERALIZATION
1969 1980
199
3 2001 2014
2015
+14
+6
+10
+2 +2
+2145 Years 14 Banks in 3Months
Ushering in a new
ERA of
DIFFERENTIATED
BANKING
BANK
NATIONALIZATION
PRESENCE-LESS LAYER Aadhaar Authentication
Unique digital biometric identity with
open access of nearly a Billion users
CONSENT LAYER Open Personal Data Store
Provides a modern privacy data sharing
framework
PAPERLESS LAYER
Aadhaar e-KYC,
E-sign, Digital Locker
Rapidly growing base of paperless
systems with billions of artifacts
CASHLESS LAYER IMPS, AEPS, APB, and UPI
Game changing electronic payment
systems and transition to cashless
economy
COMMERCE
(GSTn)
CREDIT
(RBI)
INVESTMENTS
(SEBI)
OTHERS
INDIASTACK
SKILLS
JAM Jan Dhan + Aadhaar + Mobile
WE WILL GO FROM DATA POOR TO DATA RICH NATION
IN 5 YEARS!
Digital
Identity
Paperless
Process
Commerce
Payment
Social
Machine
Intelligence &
Automation
TO INCREASE MARKET SIZE BY 10X TO 50X,
THE COST OF DOING BUSINESS MUST BE
BROUGHT DOWN!
Need a
loan
Sees
loan
offers
Accepts
best offer
Receives
loan
Gets
paid
digitally
Repays
loan
Agrees to
share
data
Data
sharing
norms &
tech
Credit
marketplace
app
Credit
market
-place
paperless
contract
Transaction
a/c & app
Payment
app
Payment
app
Aadhaar/
eKYC
digi
locker
API for
loan
offers
eSign
Digilocker
UPI
auth
orization
api
UPI
UPI
Credit without
friction will bring
millions into the
formal economy!
Paperless instant
credit markets
based on
digital exhaust
● Digitize their supply chains
● Increase consumption of digital
infrastructure - payments, logistics, etc.
● Leave digital footprints for service
providers, and customers alike.
● Digitize their customers
● The best aggregators use these digital
footprints to enhance their services!
NEW AGE PLATFORMS ARE DIGITIZING THEIR ECOSYSTEMS
Customers
Platforms
Service
Providers
Product
Providers
Partners
Jobs /
Provider
Jobs = Service
Providers
×
Only 6,500
Employees
1.5 Mil
Cars &
Drivers
New Age Platforms
Create a few, high-value jobs
that can be leveraged to enable service
providers.
Service Providers
Large number of service providers
Each service provider creates multiple jobs
10,000 Hospitals
200,000 Doctors,
Labs, etc.
1.5 Mil Cars
0.25 Mil Cars 100,000+
Merchants
5,000
Employees
6,500
Employees
8,000
Employees
4,500
Employees
100,000+
Merchants
Logistics,
Support
23,000
Employees
ACCELERATING CHANGE!
1. Bharat embracing Smartphones
- Stayzilla sells more hotel rooms than
MakeMyTrip
- Newshunt is bigger than Times of
India in readership
Aadhaar: open digital biometric identity
Paperless: E-sign, Digi-Locker and eKYC
Payment layer: IMPS and UPI
Country commercial transaction layer: GSTn
Open Privacy Consent Network: Dec launch
2. Open API “India Stack”
- Aadhaar is 900 Mil – Bhamashah
huge opp.
- IMPS bigger than Visa/MC
- GSTn will see 3 Bil invoices/month
- India will have largest e-sign user
base by Dec 2016
- Democratized innovation
India Stack as
Digital Infrastructure
Regulatory
Policy
Market Making Policy
via Challenge Grants
100s of Experiments
- Low barriers to entry
- Level playing field
- Aligned to national issues
- Rapid success/failure cycle
A robust
foundation to
enable innovative
solutions to
India’s hard
problems
Innovative Solutions to
India’s Hard Problems
- Commercially Viable
- Far reaching consumer impact
- Reinforces experimentation
India is optimizing to empower problem
solvers. Startups will be the force multiplier to
catapult the country into a $10 Trillion
economy by 2030.
“

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The Hive Think Tank: Talk by Mohandas Pai - India at 2030, How Tech Entrepreneurship Will Create A $10 Trillion Economy

  • 1. INDIA AT 2030 - HOW TECH ENTREPRENEURSHIP WILL CREATE A $10 TRILLION ECONOMY T V MOHANDAS PAI
  • 2. India is ready to retake its place as a top 3 economy in the world by 2030. “
  • 3. INDIA AT A GLANCE
  • 4. INDIA – KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2016 VS. 1991 25 YEARS’ SNAPSHOT POST-LIBERALISATION
  • 5. INDIA’S GDP GROWTH % - LAST 10 YEARS REGAINING GROWTH MOMENTUM Expected GDP growth rate for 2016-17 is 7.5%
  • 6. INDIA – GDP PROJECTIONS India needs to grow at 8% CAGR to be a $10 Tril economy by 2035 China’s GDP grew at an average of 9.9% p.a. from 1979 to 2011
  • 7. THE WORLD IS CHANGING
  • 8. INDIA & CHINA AT A GLANCE - CHINA HAS GROWN FASTER
  • 10. SPEND ON SUBSIDY FINALLY SEEMS TO BE GETTING UNDER CONTROL With strong reforms and the use of JAM (Jan Dhan, Aadhar, and Mobile), subsidy leakage will be reduced
  • 11. INDIA HAS A STRONG INDUSTRIAL BASE
  • 12. WE HAVE A YOUNG POPULATION
  • 13. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A YOUNG POPULATION We are NOT an aging country!
  • 14. HIGHER EDUCATION (HE) INFRASTRUCTURE IN INDIA GROWTH IS ABOUT PEOPLE, WE HAVE INCREASED ACCESS IN HE
  • 15. WE HAVE ADEQUATE SAVINGS FOR INVESTMENT AND GROWTH
  • 16. GDP BY SECTOR IN 2014 : INDIA VS CHINA WE HAVE VERY DIFFERENT PATTERNS
  • 17. INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT INDIA IS SPENDING MUCH BELOW ITS NEED AND CHINA, WAY ABOVE
  • 18. INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT CHINA’S SPEND IS OVER TWICE THE RATE OF INDIA, ON A MUCH HIGHER GDP BASE IN THE LAST 20 YEARS 18
  • 19. The Startup Ecosystem will help create a $10 Trillion GDP economy in India by 2030.“
  • 20. S 3rdLargest startup ecosystem in the World 19,400 startups 270%growth in 6 years $80 BilValue Created
  • 21. INDIAN STARTUPS AT A GLANCE IndianStartupEcosystem 3rd Largest Startup Ecosystem in the world + Fastest Growing 19,400 startups in India at present. Indian startups raised $3.5 Bil funding in the first half of 2015 and $4.5 Bil in second half of 2015. Total investment in 10 years has crossed $50 Bil. Indian startups raised $3.5 Bil across 815 deals in Q1, Q2 & Q3 in 2016, against $7.3 Bil that was invested across 639 deals during the same period in 2015 76.4% of startups that have raised funding in 2016 YTD are concentrated in Bengaluru, Mumbai and NCR-Delhi region.
  • 22. NEW FLYWHEEL RAMPING UP 1998 - SW Services took off 2015 - Startups take off Result in 2016: - $175 Bil revenue - $110 Bil exports - 4.25 Mil People Employed 10 year Projection: Fireflies lighting up the sky! - 100,000 Startups - Employment: 3.5 Mil - $500+ Bil in Market Value - #2 after US - 30 Mil SMEs lifted
  • 23. STARTUP LANDSCAPE BY CITY 19,400 Startups in India Mostly concentrated in Bangalore (31.44%), Delhi (20%), Mumbai (13%) and Chennai (10%) Bangalore strong in B2C
  • 24.
  • 26. B2C VALUATIONS $9 bn $6.5 bn $5 bn $5 bn $1 bn
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29. STARTUP VALUATIONS 22% 12% 9% 8% 46% 16% 13% 12% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% NASDAQ SEHK NSE BSE Technologyasapercentageofoverall Set to grow dramatically in coming years No. of companies Market Cap
  • 30. USE OF DIGITAL PLATFORMS
  • 32.
  • 33. AADHAAR – ZERO TO 1 BIL IN 5.5 YEARS 942M 600M 300M 100M 50M
  • 34. THE EVOLUTION OF THE INDIA STACK – BUILT ON JAM 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 AEP S Aadhaar Authentication APB Aadhaar eKyc eSign UPI Consent Architecture Digilocker GSTN 950 M 1005 M 196 M Aadhaar Mobile JDY 2009 944 M 600 M 100 M Source: Ericsson Mobility Report, PMJDY, Aadhaar Web Sites
  • 35. ACCELERATED BY REGULATORY INNOVATION Source: News Reports BANK LIBERALIZATION 1969 1980 199 3 2001 2014 2015 +14 +6 +10 +2 +2 +2145 Years 14 Banks in 3Months Ushering in a new ERA of DIFFERENTIATED BANKING BANK NATIONALIZATION
  • 36. PRESENCE-LESS LAYER Aadhaar Authentication Unique digital biometric identity with open access of nearly a Billion users CONSENT LAYER Open Personal Data Store Provides a modern privacy data sharing framework PAPERLESS LAYER Aadhaar e-KYC, E-sign, Digital Locker Rapidly growing base of paperless systems with billions of artifacts CASHLESS LAYER IMPS, AEPS, APB, and UPI Game changing electronic payment systems and transition to cashless economy COMMERCE (GSTn) CREDIT (RBI) INVESTMENTS (SEBI) OTHERS INDIASTACK SKILLS JAM Jan Dhan + Aadhaar + Mobile
  • 37. WE WILL GO FROM DATA POOR TO DATA RICH NATION IN 5 YEARS! Digital Identity Paperless Process Commerce Payment Social Machine Intelligence & Automation
  • 38. TO INCREASE MARKET SIZE BY 10X TO 50X, THE COST OF DOING BUSINESS MUST BE BROUGHT DOWN!
  • 39. Need a loan Sees loan offers Accepts best offer Receives loan Gets paid digitally Repays loan Agrees to share data Data sharing norms & tech Credit marketplace app Credit market -place paperless contract Transaction a/c & app Payment app Payment app Aadhaar/ eKYC digi locker API for loan offers eSign Digilocker UPI auth orization api UPI UPI Credit without friction will bring millions into the formal economy! Paperless instant credit markets based on digital exhaust
  • 40. ● Digitize their supply chains ● Increase consumption of digital infrastructure - payments, logistics, etc. ● Leave digital footprints for service providers, and customers alike. ● Digitize their customers ● The best aggregators use these digital footprints to enhance their services! NEW AGE PLATFORMS ARE DIGITIZING THEIR ECOSYSTEMS Customers Platforms Service Providers Product Providers Partners
  • 41.
  • 42. Jobs / Provider Jobs = Service Providers ×
  • 43. Only 6,500 Employees 1.5 Mil Cars & Drivers New Age Platforms Create a few, high-value jobs that can be leveraged to enable service providers. Service Providers Large number of service providers Each service provider creates multiple jobs
  • 44. 10,000 Hospitals 200,000 Doctors, Labs, etc. 1.5 Mil Cars 0.25 Mil Cars 100,000+ Merchants 5,000 Employees 6,500 Employees 8,000 Employees 4,500 Employees 100,000+ Merchants Logistics, Support 23,000 Employees
  • 45. ACCELERATING CHANGE! 1. Bharat embracing Smartphones - Stayzilla sells more hotel rooms than MakeMyTrip - Newshunt is bigger than Times of India in readership Aadhaar: open digital biometric identity Paperless: E-sign, Digi-Locker and eKYC Payment layer: IMPS and UPI Country commercial transaction layer: GSTn Open Privacy Consent Network: Dec launch 2. Open API “India Stack” - Aadhaar is 900 Mil – Bhamashah huge opp. - IMPS bigger than Visa/MC - GSTn will see 3 Bil invoices/month - India will have largest e-sign user base by Dec 2016 - Democratized innovation
  • 46. India Stack as Digital Infrastructure Regulatory Policy Market Making Policy via Challenge Grants 100s of Experiments - Low barriers to entry - Level playing field - Aligned to national issues - Rapid success/failure cycle A robust foundation to enable innovative solutions to India’s hard problems Innovative Solutions to India’s Hard Problems - Commercially Viable - Far reaching consumer impact - Reinforces experimentation
  • 47. India is optimizing to empower problem solvers. Startups will be the force multiplier to catapult the country into a $10 Trillion economy by 2030. “