Hamid MAHYOU National Institute for Agronomic Research - Morocco COP22 Session - Novembere 16th 2016, Coping with Climate Change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region Meeting future food demand through SCIENCE & INNOVATION

1. Hamid MAHYOU
National Institute for Agronomic Research - Morocco
www.inra.org.ma
COP22 Side Event, 16 November 2016, Marrakesh, Morocco

2.  In Morocco, agriculture is an important sector for the national economy.
 Its contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ranges from 15 to 20% depending on the
seasons.
 Agriculture (including fishing) is the first sector provider of employment (38% of national
employment and 75% of employment in rural areas).
 The sector plays an important role in terms of food security and sustainable development.
 In Morocco, as in most of the Mediterranean countries, the cereal system (i.e.
cereals/livestock/olive tree) is predominant.
 Climate information is a prerequisite for managing
agricultural climate risks in Morocco.

3. 3
Source: Min. of Agriculture
41
21
10
8
6
4 3 2
7
OthersHailFloodsFrostWater stressHigh
temperatures
Hot windsPests and
diseases
Meteorological
drought
80%
- Humidity
- Pollution
- Fires
- Strong winds
- Cold

4.  Climate services for the agricultural sector are in development since the
beginning of the 1990s in Morocco, thanks to a strong collaboration
between the Min. of Agriculture, the Met. Administration and European
and international research and development institutions, since the
2000s.
 Innovative tools (MOSAICC, CGMS) have been already developed in
Morocco for impact assessment purposes and index-based crop
insurance.

5. http://www.inra.org.ma/publications/ouvrages/prediction1113en.pdf
http://www.inra.ma/docs/accagrimag/assagric/comp1liv1.pdf
Impact Factor: 8.145
Impact Factor: 3.36

6.  "Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change" (MOSAICC)
http://www.changementclimatique.ma/ ;
 Crop monitoring and forecasting system of Morocco (CGMS-Maroc)
http://www.cgms-maroc.ma/.

8. www.changementclimatique.ma

9. Balaghi et al., 2016
http://www.changementclimatique.ma/
2010 - 2039 2040 - 2069 2070 - 2099

10. The water balance for the MIROC-ESM (top), CanESM2 (middle)
and MPI-ESM-LR (bottom) for the RCP4.5 (top of each GCM) and
the RCP8.5 (bottom of each GCM) scenarios for the periods 2010-
2040, 2040-2070 and 2070-2100. The data were compared to the
historical data of each GCM. Positive values indicate an increase
in water availability compared to the 1971 – 2000 period, negative
values a decrease.
www.changementclimatique.ma

11. Comparison of species distribution in
the forest of Maâmora without
disturbance, 2010/2090 (Model
CanESM2)
www.changementclimatique.ma

13. Weather indicators:
• Rainfall
• T° max, T°min, T° avg
• ET0
• Rain/ET0
• Radiation
• Etc.
Vegetation indicators:
• NDVI (SPOT & Proba-V)
Simulation model indicators:
• Water limited yield biomass
• Water limited yield storage
• Relative soil moisture
• Etc.
At grid level, and then aggregated at administrative levels (region, province, commune)
28 indices
CGMS-MAROC project : The official cereal yield forecasting system

14. www.cgms-maroc.ma

15. ACCAGRIMAG project : Index-based crop insurance
Balaghi et al., 2015

20. Conclusion
 There is a need for more collaboration and capacity building, for addressing the wide
scope of climate services needs.
 There is a need for reinforcing the meteorological network to cope with spatial
climate variability in Morocco.
 The Moroccan experience could serve other countries in Africa (Triple A initiative).

21. http://www.changementclimatique.ma/
Demonstration
http://www.cgms-maroc.ma/geoext
http://www.cgms-maroc.ma/geoext/test.php

22. ‫شكرا‬
Merci
Thank you