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Climate Risk Management: Experience of Morocco

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National Institute for Agronomic Research - Morocco

COP22 Session - Novembere 16th 2016, Coping with Climate Change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region Meeting future food demand through SCIENCE & INNOVATION

Publié dans : Environnement
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Climate Risk Management: Experience of Morocco

  1. 1. Hamid MAHYOU National Institute for Agronomic Research - Morocco www.inra.org.ma COP22 Side Event, 16 November 2016, Marrakesh, Morocco
  2. 2.  In Morocco, agriculture is an important sector for the national economy.  Its contribution to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ranges from 15 to 20% depending on the seasons.  Agriculture (including fishing) is the first sector provider of employment (38% of national employment and 75% of employment in rural areas).  The sector plays an important role in terms of food security and sustainable development.  In Morocco, as in most of the Mediterranean countries, the cereal system (i.e. cereals/livestock/olive tree) is predominant.  Climate information is a prerequisite for managing agricultural climate risks in Morocco.
  3. 3. 3 Source: Min. of Agriculture 41 21 10 8 6 4 3 2 7 OthersHailFloodsFrostWater stressHigh temperatures Hot windsPests and diseases Meteorological drought 80% - Humidity - Pollution - Fires - Strong winds - Cold
  4. 4.  Climate services for the agricultural sector are in development since the beginning of the 1990s in Morocco, thanks to a strong collaboration between the Min. of Agriculture, the Met. Administration and European and international research and development institutions, since the 2000s.  Innovative tools (MOSAICC, CGMS) have been already developed in Morocco for impact assessment purposes and index-based crop insurance.
  5. 5. http://www.inra.org.ma/publications/ouvrages/prediction1113en.pdf http://www.inra.ma/docs/accagrimag/assagric/comp1liv1.pdf Impact Factor: 8.145 Impact Factor: 3.36
  6. 6.  "Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change" (MOSAICC) http://www.changementclimatique.ma/ ;  Crop monitoring and forecasting system of Morocco (CGMS-Maroc) http://www.cgms-maroc.ma/.
  7. 7. www.changementclimatique.ma
  8. 8. Balaghi et al., 2016 http://www.changementclimatique.ma/ 2010 - 2039 2040 - 2069 2070 - 2099
  9. 9. The water balance for the MIROC-ESM (top), CanESM2 (middle) and MPI-ESM-LR (bottom) for the RCP4.5 (top of each GCM) and the RCP8.5 (bottom of each GCM) scenarios for the periods 2010- 2040, 2040-2070 and 2070-2100. The data were compared to the historical data of each GCM. Positive values indicate an increase in water availability compared to the 1971 – 2000 period, negative values a decrease. www.changementclimatique.ma
  10. 10. Comparison of species distribution in the forest of Maâmora without disturbance, 2010/2090 (Model CanESM2) www.changementclimatique.ma
  11. 11. Weather indicators: • Rainfall • T° max, T°min, T° avg • ET0 • Rain/ET0 • Radiation • Etc. Vegetation indicators: • NDVI (SPOT & Proba-V) Simulation model indicators: • Water limited yield biomass • Water limited yield storage • Relative soil moisture • Etc. At grid level, and then aggregated at administrative levels (region, province, commune) 28 indices CGMS-MAROC project : The official cereal yield forecasting system
  12. 12. www.cgms-maroc.ma
  13. 13. ACCAGRIMAG project : Index-based crop insurance Balaghi et al., 2015
  14. 14. Conclusion  There is a need for more collaboration and capacity building, for addressing the wide scope of climate services needs.  There is a need for reinforcing the meteorological network to cope with spatial climate variability in Morocco.  The Moroccan experience could serve other countries in Africa (Triple A initiative).
  15. 15. http://www.changementclimatique.ma/ Demonstration http://www.cgms-maroc.ma/geoext http://www.cgms-maroc.ma/geoext/test.php
  16. 16. ‫شكرا‬ Merci Thank you